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Homeland Security:Emerging Security Needs
Casualty Actuaries in Reinsurance
Special Interest Seminar: Terrorism
September 13, 2004
New York, NY
Asha M. George, DrPH
Threats Division Manager
Homeland Security Institute
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• “The increasing availability of relatively inexpensive cruise missiles and the capability to fabricate and introduce bio-toxins and chemical agents into the US means that rogue nations or transnational actors may be able to threaten our homeland”
- Report of the National Defense Panel, 1997
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Caught By Surprise
• World Trade Center• Bombing of the Murrah
Federal Building in Oklahoma
• World Trade Center/Pentagon
• Anthrax
We may not be able to prevent events from occurring.
We can at least keep ourselves from being surprised.
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Intelligence
• Information collected
• Put together with other information
• Then all of it is analyzed
• End product is what we call intelligence
• In the homeland security context, Info1 is provided by state and local personnel
Analysis [ Collect (Info1+Info2+…InfoX) ]
= Intelligence
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Vulnerabilities X Intentions Vulnerabilities X Intentions X Capabilities X Capabilities
= = ThreatThreat
Threat X Vulnerability Threat X Vulnerability X Asset Value X Asset Value
= = RiskRisk
Simple Equations to Characterize
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Threat Continues to Change
• The enemy continues to find ways to get through our defenses and exploit our vulnerabilities.
• Just as disease knows no borders, neither do crime, weather, and any number of other things that produce insecurity and terrorism.
• Society is continuing to become more connected.
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• The single biggest threat to man’s continued dominance on the planet is the virus.”
- Joshua Lederberg, PhD, Nobel laureate
Electron micrograph of
Ebola virus
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What We Should Expect• Changes in terrorist tactics, methods and
operational activities occur naturally – if only because vulnerabilities, risks, technological abilities, etc., of targets are also changing
• Lack of wherewithal regarding and interest in conventional operations – if only because they require huge resources and will certainly result in military response and other types of retaliation
• Unexpected, innovative, non-traditional and broadly applicable methods
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Characteristics• Small-scale high-impact operations
• As with everything else in society, terrorism drives towards greater efficiency and effectiveness, expending the least amount of resources to achieve the largest results
• Unequal action taken to rectify societal inequality? Reaction to disproportionate power by using a weapon that wields disproportionate power itself?
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Top Priority for Terrorism
• Attack Fear + Chaos Civil Unrest Societal Breakdown
• How? By:– Undermining the strengths of a target– Exploiting the weaknesses of a target– Maximizing their own advantage– Attaining control– Gaining freedom to take any action they please
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Effect Multipliers• M1: Ability to disrupt electronic infrastructure
• M2: Ability to generate fear
• M3: Ability to utilize psychological operations
• M4: Ability to prevent action, response, retaliation, etc.
• M5: Ability to decrease initiative
• M6: Ability to introduce weapons of mass destruction and/or related materials
• M7: Ability to fight in environments that degrade capacity for military response and retaliation
• MX: Ability to ______
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Vulnerabilities• Infinite array of
vulnerabilities for society – Finite array of vulnerabilities for an organization
• Weakness in defense
• Weakness in preparedness
• Highly mobile population
• Enjoyment of congregation
• Population density and lack thereof
• Unprotected agricultural production areas
• Federal (as opposed to National) intelligence apparatus
• Lack of specific guidance to individuals
• Porous borders
• Inadequate transportation safety
• Lack of coordinated activities and databases
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Vulnerabilities (continued)• Disorganized
infrastructure elements
• Squishy cyberspace
• Inability to communicate and work with other countries
• Science, tools and technology not matched against threats, risks and vulnerabilities
• Disarray of public health and other infrastructures
• Inability to address the truly difficult tasks (e.g. Select Agent Program)
• Holes in existing law
• Inability or lack of willingness to share information
• Split and heavily occupied military forces
• Increasing deficit
• Etc.
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Impact of a Terrorist Attack
Resources + Unexpected Methods +
(Understanding + Exploitation)Vulnerabilities + Effect (M1+M2+M3+M4+M5+M6+M7 +…MX) =
Impact
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Identification of Atypical Trends
• Ongoing observational data
• Feed into successively broader surveillance and analysis systems
• Information must be fed back as soon as possible
• Surveillance needs to be more than routine
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US Homeland Security Advisory System
LOWLow Risk of Terrorist Attacks
GUARDEDGeneral Risk of Terrorist Attacks
ELEVATEDSignificant Risk of Terrorist Attacks
HIGHHigh Risk of Terrorist Attacks
SEVERESevere Risk of Terrorist Attacks
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International Cooperation
NationalSecurity
HomelandSecurity
CombatingTerrorism
CombatingWMD
U.S.
INTERNATIONAL
AGENDA
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Space
• Between stimulus and response, there is space.
• In that space is power to choose our response.
• In our response lies our growth and our freedom.
- Stephen Covey
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