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7/27/2019 Hindustan Zinc, 1Q FY 2014
1/11
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
Quarterly highlights (Standalone)Particulars (` cr) 1QFY14 1QFY13 % chg (yoy) 4QFY13 % chg (qoq)Net sales 2,939 2,713 8.4 3,850 (23.7)EBITDA 1,503 1,429 5.2 2,116 (29.0)
EBITDA margin (%) 51.1 52.7 (153)bp 55.0 (382)bp
Adjusted PAT 1,661 1,581 5.0 2,183 (23.9)Source: Company, Angel Research
Hindustan Zinc (HZL)s 1QFY2014 results were in-line with our expectations. Wemaintain our Buy recommendation.Strong growth in zinc and silver volumes: HZLs net sales increased by 8.4% yoy to`2,939cr (in-line with our estimate of `2,916cr), mainly due to increased sales
volumes of zinc and silver. Refined zinc production volumes increased 10.0% yoy to
173kt and refined silver production volumes grew 31.0% yoy to 96kt due to higher
production from Sindesur Khurd mine and new Dariba lead and silver capacities.
EBITDA up 5.2% yoy: HZLs EBITDA margin contracted by 153bp yoy to 51.1%mainly on account of a 2.0% yoy increase in cost of production to
`46,765/tonne. The cost of production increased primarily due to lower
sulphuric acid credits and higher excavation costs, although these were
partially offset by a lower price of coal, lower specific coal consumption and
benefits accruing out of higher volumes.PAT rises by 5.0% yoy: The companys other income rose by 8.0% yoy to`620cr while depreciation increased by 6.3% yoy to `184cr. There was an
exceptional item of VRS of `1cr and consequently, the adjusted net profit
grew by 5.0% yoy to `1,661cr (above our estimate of `1,617cr).
Outlook and valuation: With a cash-rich balance sheet and strong productiongrowth of zinc, lead and silver over FY2013-15, we maintain our positive stance
on HZL. While we expect earnings to decline slightly during FY2014, we expect
them to be higher in FY2015 on the back of improvement in both, realizations as
well as volumes. HZL is currently trading at an inexpensive valuation of 2.8x and
1.8x FY2014E and FY2015E EV/EBITDA, respectively. Valuing the stock at 4.0xFY2015E EV/EBITDA, we recommend a Buy on HZL with a target price of `140.Key financials (Standalone)Y/E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ENet sales 11,255 12,526 12,389 13,093% chg 12.1 11.3 (1.1) 5.7
Net profit 5,569 6,917 6,437 7,179% chg 13.2 24.2 (6.9) 11.5
EPS (`) 13.1 16.3 15.2 17.0EBITDA margin (%) 52.6 50.4 48.5 51.7
P/E (x) 8.0 6.4 6.8 6.1
P/BV (x) 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0
RoE (%) 22.4 23.3 18.5 17.9
RoCE (%) 21.2 19.0 15.2 15.0
EV/Sales (x) 2.3 1.8 1.4 0.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.4 3.6 2.8 1.8
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUYCMP `104
Target Price `140
Investment Period 12 months
Stock Info
Sector
Net Debt (`cr) (22,365)
Bloomberg Code
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 64.9
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 1.9
FII / NRIs / OCBs 1.6Indian Public / Others 31.6
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex 6.0 16.6 12.4
Hindustan Zinc (5.4) (12.4) 6.4
HZ@IN
2
20,150
6,029
HZNC.BO
44,028
1.0
147/96
110,572
Base Metals
Avg. Daily Volume
Market Cap (`cr)
Beta
52 Week High / Low
Face Value (`)
BSE Sensex
Nifty
Reuters Code
Bhavesh ChauhanTel: 022- 39357800 Ext: 6821
Bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com
Vinay RachhTel: 022- 39357800 Ext: 6841
Vinay.rachh@angelbroking.com
Hindustan ZincPerformance Highlights
1QFY2014 Result Update | Base Metals
July 19, 2013
7/27/2019 Hindustan Zinc, 1Q FY 2014
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Hindustan Zinc | 1QFY2014 Result Update
July 19, 2013 2
Exhibit 1:1QFY1014 Performance (Standalone)
(` cr) 1QFY14 1QFY13 yoy % 4QFY13 qoq % FY2013 FY2012 yoy %Net sales 2,939 2,713 8.4 3,850 (23.7) 12,526 11,255 11.3Mining and manufacturing expenses 898 863 4.1 1,168 (23.1) 3,450 3,230 6.8% of Net sales 30.6 31.8 30.3 27.5 28.7
Mining royalty 253 204 23.8 244 3.7 920 838 9.8
% of Net sales 8.6 7.5 6.3 7.3 7.4
Staff cost 178 149 19.4 177 0.7 650 535 21.6
% of Net sales 6.1 5.5 4.6 5.2 4.8
Admin, selling and others 152 103 47.5 204 (25.7) 518 421 23.1
% of Net sales 5.2 3.8 5.3 4.1 3.7
Total expenditure 1,481 1,319 12.3 1,793 (17.4) 5,538 5,024 10.2% of Net sales 50.4 48.6 46.6 44.2 44.6
Other operating income 45 35 27.7 58.4 (23.3) 174 150 16.0
EBIDTA 1,503 1,429 5.2 2,116 (29.0) 6,482 6,069 6.8% of Net sales 51.1 52.7 55.0 51.7 53.9
Interest 11 13 (15.1) 11 1.0 29 14 108.6
Depreciation 184 173 6.3 122 51.2 647 611 6.0
Other income 620 574 8.0 412 50.6 2,032 1,543 31.7
Exceptional items 1 0 18 18 43
Profit before tax 1,928 1,817 6.1 2,378 (18.9) 7,820 6,945 12.6% of Net sales 65.6 67.0 61.7 62.4 61.7
Provision for tax 267 235 13.5 212 26.1 921 1,419 (35.1)
% of PBT 13.9 13.0 8.9 11.8 20.4
Profit after tax 1,660 1,581 5.0 2,166 (23.3) 6,899 5,526 24.9% of Net sales 56.5 58.3 56.3 55.1 49.1
Adjusted net profit 1,661 1,581 5.0 2,183 (23.9) 6,917 5,569 24.2
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2:Actual vs Estimates
(` cr) Actual Estimates Variation (%)Net Sales 2,939 2,916 0.8
EBITDA 1,503 1,563 (3.8)
EBITDA margin (%) 51.1 53.6 (247)bp
Adjusted PAT 1,661 1,617 2.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
Strong growth in zinc and silver volumes
For 1QFY2014, HZLs net sales increased by8.4% yoy to `2,939cr (in-line with
our estimate of `2,916cr), mainly due to increased sales volumes of zinc and
silver. Refined zinc production volumes increased 10.0% yoy to 173kt and
refined silver production volumes grew 31.0% yoy to 96kt due to higher
production from Sindesur Khurd mine and new Dariba lead and silver
capacities.
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Exhibit 3:Net sales rose by 8.4% yoy
Source: Company, Angel Research
EBITDA increases 5.2% yoy
The EBITDA margin contracted by 153bp yoy to 51.1% mainly on account of a
2.0% yoy increase in the cost of production to `46,765/tonne. Cost of production
increased primarily due to lower sulphuric acid credits and higher excavation costs,
although these were partially offset by a lower price of coal, lower specific coal
consumption and benefits accruing out of higher volumes. Mining royalty as a
percentage to sales increased to 8.6% compared to 7.5% in 1QFY2013 while
other operating income also increased by 27.7% yoy to `45cr. Hence, the EBITDA
increased by 5.2% yoy to `1,503cr.
PAT rises by 5.0% yoy
The other income rose by 8.0% yoy to `620cr while depreciation increased by
6.3% yoy to `184cr. The tax rate was at 13.9% in 1QFY2014 (13.0% in
1QFY2013). There was an exceptional item of VRS of `1cr and consequently, the
adjusted net profit grew by 5.0% yoy to `1,661cr (above our estimate of `1,617cr).
Exhibit 4:EBITDA and EBITDA margin trend
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 5:Net profit and net profit margin trend
Source: Company, Angel Research
2,8212,593
2,747
3,094
2,713 2,8223,140
3,850
2,939
(10)
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
1QFY12 3QFY12 1QFY13 3QFY13 1QFY14
(%)
(`cr)
Net sales yoy growth - RHS
1,592
1,465 1,402
1,659
1,4291,447
1,494
2,116
1,503
40
60
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
2,100
2,400
1QFY12 3QFY12 1QFY13 3QFY13 1QFY14
(%)
(`cr)
EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA margins (RH S)
1,499 1,3691,280
1,4211,581
1,5441,613
2,183
1,661
0
10
20
30
40
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70
0
300
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900
1,200
1,500
1,8002,100
2,400
1QFY12 3QFY12 1QFY13 3QFY13 1QFY14
(%)
(`cr)
Net prof it (LHS) Ne t prof it margins ( RHS)
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Investment arguments
Mining in Kayad could be the next phase of growth
Since the expansion at Sindesur Khurd is complete, HZL has commenced work atits underground Kayad mine, which has 11mn tonne of high-grade reserves.
The company expects to increase its capacity from 1.0mn tonne to 5mn tonne over
the coming five years. Moreover, given the cash-rich balance sheet, HZL is actively
exploring greenfield projects through prospecting licenses and mining lease
projects across different states.
Current zinc prices near marginal cost of production
At current levels of ~US$1,900/tonne, zinc prices stand near marginal cost of
production for several zinc producers globally. Hence, we believe that the
probability of a further decline in zinc prices from the current levels remains muted.Further, over the next 3-5 years, several zinc mines are expected to be exhausted;
hence, production is likely to suffer. This should support zinc prices over the
medium term in our view.
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Hindustan Zinc | 1QFY2014 Result Update
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Outlook and Valuation
With a cash-rich balance sheet and strong production growth of zinc, lead and
silver over FY2013-15, we maintain our positive stance on HZL. While we expect
earnings to decline slightly during FY2014, we expect them to be higher in FY2015
on the back of improvement in both, realizations as well as volumes. HZL is
currently trading at an inexpensive valuation of 2.8x and 1.8x FY2014E and
FY2015E EV/EBITDA, respectively. Valuing the stock at 4.0x FY2015E EV/EBITDA,
we recommend Buy on HZL with a target price of `140.
Exhibit 6:Key assumptions
LME prices (US$/tonne) FY2014E FY2015EZinc 1,875 1,930
Lead 2,013 2,068
Silver (`/kg) 40,000 40,000
Sales volume (tonnes)Zinc metal 725,605 747,150
Lead metal 138,750 142,450
Integrated silver 337,000 347,000
Source: Angel Research
Exhibit 7:EPS Angel forecast vs consensus
Year (%) Angel forecast Bloomberg consensus Variation (%)FY2014E 15.2 16.3 (6.5)FY2015E 17.0 16.9 0.5
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 8:EV/EBITDA band
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
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Jan-10
Mar-10
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(`
cr)
2x 4x 6x 8x 10x
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Exhibit 9:P/E band
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 10:P/BV band
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 11:Recommendation summary
Company CMP Target Price Reco. Mcap Upside P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)(`) (`) (` cr) (%) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E
Hindalco 104 - Neutral 20,270 - 7.9 7.1 0.5 0.5 6.5 5.8 7.2 7.5 5.4 5.5
Nalco 30 - Neutral 7,641 - 11.8 11.4 0.6 0.6 3.4 3.4 5.4 5.5 3.4 3.5
Sterlite 83 100 Buy 27,860 20 4.7 4.2 0.5 0.4 2.1 1.7 10.9 11.1 8.0 8.2
HZL 104 140 Buy 44,028 34 6.8 6.1 1.2 1.0 2.8 1.8 18.5 17.9 15.2 15.0Source: Company, Angel Research
Company background
Incorporated in 1966, HZL, a subsidiary of Sterlite Industries, is a vertically
integrated company with its mining and smelting operations located mainly in
Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh. HZLs current zinc reserves stand at 34.1mn tonne
with a production capacity of 1.1mn tonne of zinc p.a., indicating a mine life of 31
years. HZL currently operates two underground mines, namely Sindesar Khurd and
Rajpura Dariba, and one open cast mine - Rampura Agucha.
0
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(`)
2.0x 6.0x 10.0x 14.0x
0
50100
150
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500
Jan-09
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(`)
0.5x 2.0x 3.5x 5.0x
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Hindustan Zinc | 1QFY2014 Result Update
July 19, 2013 7
Profit & loss statement (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ENet sales 8,017 10,039 11,255 12,526 12,389 13,093Other operating income 122.0 0 150 174 186 205Total operating income 8,139 10,039 11,405 12,700 12,575 13,298% chg 43.3 23.3 13.6 11.4 (1.0) 5.8
Total expenditure 3,347 4,431 5,336 6,218 6,383 6,320
Net raw materials 1,961 14 312 681 0 314
Other Mfg. costs 613 803 838 920 867 887
Personnel 457 511 535 650 726 797
Other 316 3,104 3,651 3,968 4,791 4,321
EBITDA 4,792 5,608 6,069 6,482 6,192 6,978% chg 75.3 17.0 8.2 6.8 (4.5) 12.7
(% of Net sales) 58.3 55.9 52.6 50.4 48.5 51.7
Depreciation 334 475 611 647 719 790
EBIT 4,458 5,133 5,459 5,835 5,473 6,188% chg 82.0 15.1 6.3 6.9 (6.2) 13.1
(% of Net sales) 55.6 51.1 48.5 46.6 44.2 47.3
Interest & other charges 44 18 14 29 44 13
Other income 600 866 1,543 2,032 2,166 2,296
(% of PBT) 12.0 14.5 22.1 25.9 28.5 27.1
Share in profit of asso. - - - - - -
Recurring PBT 5,014 5,981 6,988 7,838 7,595 8,471% chg 49.3 19.3 16.8 12.2 (3.1) 11.5
Extraordinary inc/(exp.) - 21.2 43.1 17.5 - -
PBT (reported) 5,014 5,960 6,945 7,820 7,595 8,471Tax 973 1,059 1,419 921 1,158 1,292
(% of PBT) 19.4 17.8 20.4 11.8 15.2 15.2
PAT (reported) 4,041 4,900 5,526 6,899 6,437 7,179ADJ. PAT 4,041 4,922 5,569 6,917 6,437 7,179% chg 48.2 21.8 13.2 24.2 (6.9) 11.5
(% of Net Sales) 49.7 49.0 48.8 54.5 51.2 54.0
Basic EPS (`) 9.6 11.6 13.1 16.3 15.2 17.0Fully Diluted EPS ( ) 9.6 11.6 13.1 16.3 15.2 17.0% chg 48.2 21.3 12.8 24.9 (6.7) 11.5
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
previous year numbers
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Balance sheet (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 423 845 845 845 845 845Reserves& Surplus 17,701 21,688 26,036 31,431 36,335 41,982
Shareholders Funds 18,124 22,533 26,881 32,276 37,180 42,827Total Loans 60 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Deferred Tax Liability 711 945 1,109 1,280 1,280 1,280
Other long term liabilities 24 17 28 28 28
Total Liabilities 18,896 23,502 28,008 33,584 38,489 44,136APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 8,241 9,879 11,658 12,281 13,981 15,681
Less: Acc. Depreciation 2,077 2,624 3,145 3,797 4,516 5,306
Net Block 6,164 7,254 8,513 8,484 9,465 10,375Capital Work-in-Progress 1,113 595 445 1,082 1,032 982
Investments 10,949 9,335 12,695 14,540 14,540 14,540
Long term loans and adv. 617 876 1,898 1,898 1,898
Other Non-current assets 130 15 239 239 239
Current Assets 1,995 7,123 6,942 9,223 14,090 18,871Cash 928 5,633 5,255 6,942 12,539 17,336
Loans & Advances 457 286 233 393 393 393
Other 611 1,204 1,453 1,887 1,158 1,142
Current liabilities 1,326 1,551 1,477 1,881 2,775 2,769Net Current Assets 669 5,572 5,465 7,341 11,315 16,102Total Assets 18,896 23,502 28,008 33,584 38,489 44,136
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable withprevious year numbers
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July 19, 2013 9
Cash flow statement( Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EProfit before tax 5,014 5,960 6,945 7,820 7,595 8,471
Depreciation 335 475 611 647 719 790Change in working capital 173 (239) (61) (87) 1,624 9
Less: Other income (563) (835) (1,501) (1,926.9) - -
Direct taxes paid 785 1,116 1,502 1,606 1,158 1,292
Cash flow from operations 4,173 4,244 4,492 4,848 8,779 7,979(Inc.)/ Dec. in net fixed assets (2,247) (1,446) (1,668) (1,753) (1,650) (1,650)
(Inc.)/ Dec. in investments (3,922) 1,870 (2,455) (628.6) - -
(Inc.)/ Dec. in loans and adv. (96) 28 38 (96.0) - -
Other income 2,288 (4,082) 624 (852.6) - -
Cash flow from investing (3,977) (3,631) (3,461) (3,330) (1,650) (1,650)Inc./(Dec.) in loans 43 (60) - - - -
Dividend paid 198 296 1,228 1,228 1,532 1,532
Others 33 8 14 29 - -
Cash flow from financing (187) (363) (1,242) (1,257) (1,532) (1,532)Inc./(Dec.) in cash 8 250 (210) 261 5,597 4,797
Opening cash bal. 2,719 28 277 29 6,942 12,539Closing cash bal. 928 277 29 6,942 12,539 17,336
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
previous year numbers
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Key ratios (Standalone)
Y/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EValuation ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 10.9 9.0 8.0 6.4 6.8 6.1P/CEPS 10.0 8.1 7.1 5.8 6.1 5.5
P/BV 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0
Dividend yield (%) 5.8 0.7 2.3 3.0 3.0 3.0
EV/Sales 4.0 2.9 2.3 1.8 1.4 0.9
EV/EBITDA 6.9 5.2 4.4 3.6 2.8 1.8
EV/Total assets 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.3
Per share data (`)EPS (Basic) 9.6 11.6 13.1 16.3 15.2 17.0
EPS (fully diluted) 9.6 11.6 13.1 16.3 15.2 17.0
Cash EPS 10.4 12.8 14.6 17.9 16.9 18.9
DPS 6.0 0.7 2.4 3.1 3.1 3.1
Book value 42.9 53.3 63.6 76.4 88.0 101.4
DuPont analysisEBIT margin 55.6 51.1 48.5 46.6 44.2 47.3
Tax retention ratio (%) 80.6 82.2 79.6 88.2 84.8 84.8
Asset turnover (x) 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1
RoIC (Post-tax) 59.3 54.4 47.5 47.2 40.1 45.1
Cost of debt (post tax) - - - - - -
Leverage (x) - - - - - -
Operating RoE 59.3 54.4 47.5 47.2 40.1 45.1
Returns (%)RoCE (Pre-tax) 26.4 24.2 21.2 19.0 15.2 15.0
Angel RoIC (pre-tax) 88.5 74.3 62.3 56.7 51.3 57.3
RoE 24.9 24.1 22.4 23.3 18.5 17.9
Turnover ratios (x)Asset turnover (gross block) 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9
Inventory (days) 23 22 25 28 28 28
Receivables (days) 7 7 9 9 9 8
Payables (days) 46 39 36 36 36 36
WC cycle (days) (4) (6) 2 9 (12) (34)
Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7)
Net debt to EBITDA (2.5) (2.7) (3.0) (3.3) (4.4) (4.6)
Interest coverage 101.5 280.8 391.3 200.5 125.1 472.6
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence some ratios may not be
comparable with previous year ratios
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Hindustan Zinc | 1QFY2014 Result Update
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Disclosure of Interest Statement Hindustan Zinc
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: research@angelbroking.com Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in thisdocument are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions andtrading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company'sfundamentals.
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Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment bankingor other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or
in the past.
Neither Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise fromor in connection with the use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to thelatest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates mayhave investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
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