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Greenhouse Effectfrom Carbon Neutral: http://www.carbonneutral.com.au/climatechangediagram.htm
Human Causes of Climate ChangeUNEP: http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/climate-change-global-processes-and-effects1
2009 State of the Climate Report US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationhttp://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/bams-sotc/2009/bams-sotc-2009-brochure-hi-rez.pdf
2009 State of the Climate Report
2009 State of the Climate Report
2009 State of the Climate Report
• A comprehensive review of key climate indicators confirms the world is warming and the past decade was the warmest on record. More than 300 scientists from 48 countries analyzed data on 37 climate indicators, including sea ice, glaciers and air temperatures. A more detailed review of 10 of these indicators, selected because they are clearly and directly related to surface temperatures, all tell the same story: global warming is undeniable. 2009 State of the Climate Report
In Summary:
Thompson Reuters Humanitarian Alert Nethttp://www.alertnet.org/db/an_art/60167/2010/02/3-161204-1.htm
What does it mean?
Long Term Changes
http://www.scidev.net/en/news/climate-change-threatens-important-mangroves.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/aug/09/weather-hampers-pakistan-flood-relief
What does it mean?
Extreme Events
What we can say is that global warming has an effect on the probability and intensity of extreme events. This is true for precipitation as well as temperature, because the amount of water vapour that the air carries is a strong function of temperature. So the frequency of extremely heavy rain and floods increases as global warming increases. But at times and places of drought, global warming can increase the extremity of temperature and associated events such as forest fires.
Dr James Hansen: What Climate Change Looks Like ... So Far
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2010/20100813_WhatGlobalWarmingLooksLike.pdf
Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/interactive/2009/dec/02/world-climate-anomalies-map
http://www.unep.org/pdf/ccScienceCompendium2009/cc_ScienceCompendium2009_full_en.pdf
• The consequences of climate change are already unfolding.
• We are “locked in” to further increases in temperature and related impacts.
• These two factors influence next steps.
In Summary:
Climate Change and Conflict
Climate change impacts water, agriculture, health; leads to urbanization, migration.
These impacts will create conflict.
Resolution of conflict depends on governance/local resilience/adaptive capacity.
Poor governance – greater chance of instability and violence.
Summarized from A Climate of Conflict: The Links Between Climate Change, Peace and WarInternational Alert, November 2007 http://www.international-alert.org/climate_change/index.php
Some examples:
Mali vs. Chad: different response to long term drought
Haiti versus Dominican Republic: response to extreme storms
British Columbia – Pine Beetle – Fires – Institutional Response/Regional Cooperation
Many factors involved – how do governments react?See Climate of Conflict
Key country factors in climate –conflict resolution:• Political stability• Economic strength• Food security• Existing pressures from migration/urbanization
Consequences of failure to adapt:• Malnutrition, starvation, violence, migrationFrom Climate of Conflict
Responding to climate change and avoiding conflict: key points
Adaptation as primary focus in LDC’s, NOT mitigation (climate change will happen)
Build strong communities and institutions to increase local resilience and security
Pursue adaptations based on local strengths AND climate science (know local impacts of long term trends)
Regional interdependence, international cooperation and support will also be important
From Climate of Conflict
Argentina
Belaru
sBraz
il
Canad
aChina
Colombia
Hong Kong
Indonesia
Jamaic
aKen
ya
Mexico
Philippines
Seneg
al
Sri La
nka
Tanzan
ia
Ukraine
USA0.00
1,000,000.00
2,000,000.00
3,000,000.00
4,000,000.00
5,000,000.00
6,000,000.00
7,000,000.00
Emissions by country, 1000 metric tonnes CO2
Argentina
Belaru
sBraz
il
Canad
aChina
Colombia
Hong Kong
Indonesia
Jamaic
aKen
ya
Mexico
Philippines
Seneg
al
Sri La
nka
Tanzan
ia
Ukraine
USA0
5
10
15
20
25
Percent of World Total Emissions
Argentina
Belaru
sBraz
il
Canad
aChina
Colombia
Hong Kong
Indonesia
Jamaic
aKen
ya
Mexico
Philippines
Seneg
al
Sri La
nka
Tanzan
ia
Ukraine
USA0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
CO2 emissions per capita, tonnes
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,0000
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Argentina
Belarus
Brazil
Canada
China
Columbia
Hong Kong
Indonesia
Jamaica
Kenya
Mexico
Philippines
SenegalSri Lanka
Tanzania
Ukraine
United States
Emissions by GDP per capita
Where do you fit in?
A: States facing a high risk of armed conflict as a knock-on consequence of climate change:
11. Colombia23. Indonesia34. Philippines36. Senegal41. Sri Lanka
B: States facing a high risk of political instability as a knock-on consequence of climate change:
4. Belarus5. Brazil21. Jamaica23. Kenya32. Mexico52. Ukraine
From Climate of Conflict (International Alert)Conflict: current or recent war, poverty and inequality, bad governance, corruption, arbitrary authority, poor systems of justice, weak institutionsInstability: arbitrary rule, transition from dictatorship or war, under development, lack of technical capacity
Source: World Bank Environment Department June 2009http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ENVIRONMENT/Resources/ESW_EcosystemBasedApp.pdf
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,0000
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Argentina
Belarus
Brazil
Canada
China
Columbia
Hong Kong
Indonesia
Jamaica
Kenya
Mexico
Philippines
SenegalSri Lanka
Tanzania
Ukraine
United States
Countries most at risk: conflict, instability, direct impacts
Summary
• The countries least responsible for the problem will bear the greatest impact.
• Issue of global justice, calls for international cooperation and support for adaptation – not just aid in time of crisis.
• World wide benefits: peace, security, stability, sustainable development.
Other Resources
• UNEP Climate Change Science Compendium 2009 http://www.unep.org/compendium2009/ (latest science background)
• Climate Action Network http://www.climatenetwork.org/ (networking-NGO’s)• Small Island Developing States Network (networking -- Jamaica) http://www.sidsnet.org/1f.html• Facebook: Christina Ora, Solomon Islands (networking -- activist)• Oxfam http://www.oxfam.org/en/climatechange (adaptation -- what works; DRR example, Kenya)• UNFCC National Adaptation Programme of Action (national strategies: Senegal, Tanzania)
http://unfccc.int/cooperation_support/least_developed_countries_portal/submitted_napas/items/4585.php
• UNFCC Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptations in Developing Countries http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/publications/impacts.pdf (regional details, adaptation strategies)
• World Bank http://beta.worldbank.org/climatechange/regions (Market based solutions for G-77)• International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (IPCC WG II) (international framework, tools)
http://www.unisdr.org/eng/risk-reduction/climate-change/climate-change.html• International Alert: Climate Change, Conflict and Fragility (2009)
http://www.international-alert.org/pdf/Climate_change_conflict_and_fragility_Nov09.pdf (adaptation issues and approaches, Philippines example)
emissions (1000 Tonnes) % world total population tonnes per capita GDP per capita
Argentina 183,728.00 0.63 40,518,951 4.534372077 7,726
Belarus 66,802.00 0.23 9,471,900 7.052650471 5,166
Brazil 368,317.00 1.26 193,390,000 1.904529707 8,220
Canada 557,340.00 1.9 34,212,000 16.29077517 39,669
China 6,538,367.00 22.3 1,339,270,000 4.882037976 3,678
Colombia 63,439.00 0.22 45,576,000 1.39193874 5,087
Hong Kong 39,963.00 0.14 7,026,400 5.687549812 29,826
Indonesia 397,143.00 1.35 234,180,000 1.695887779 2,329
Jamaica 13,964.00 0.05 2,730,000 5.115018315 4,390
Kenya 11,236.00 0.04 40,863,000 0.274967575 912
Mexico 471,459.00 1.61 108,396,211 4.349404796 8,135
Philippines 70,916.00 0.24 94,013,200 0.754319606 1,746
Senegal 5,478.00 0.02 12,861,000 0.425938885 994
Sri Lanka 12,314.00 0.04 20,410,000 0.6033317 2,041
Tanzania 6,043.00 0.02 45,040,000 0.134169627 551
Ukraine 317,537.00 1.08 45,871,738 6.922279683 2,542
USA 5,838,381.00 19.91 310,020,000 18.83227211 46,381
2007 emissions data collected by CDIAC for UNFCC
CO2 emissions only from burning of fossil fuels and cement production -- not things like deforestation, etc.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions
Population: national estimates or 2010 estimates from UN Dept of Econ and Social Affairshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population#List
GDP: IMF, 2009http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita
Background data and sources
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