Go, go, go said the bird: human kind Cannot bear very much reality

Go, go, go said the bird: human kindCannot bear very much reality

T.S. Eliot (in Burnt Norten, Four Quartets)

... the problem is “not seeing what we don’t want to see” (“willful blindness”)

John Casti, X-Events, 2012

Hans-Peter PlagHans-Peter Plag(Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Initiative,(Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Initiative,

Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA)Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA)hpplag@odu.eduhpplag@odu.edu

Small Steps in the Right DirectionSmall Steps in the Right Directionoror

A Fundamental Change of how we are in the World?A Fundamental Change of how we are in the World?

Will EPA’s proposed limits on carbon pollution make a difference?Will EPA’s proposed limits on carbon pollution make a difference?

USAAustralia

April 18, 2008, Stony Brook, Earth Week: Sustainability: A Mosaic of Many Small Steps in the Right Direction

Lovelock (and many others): - Planet is on a run-away path; could reach a warm state (5 C warmer) already in 2050

Lovelock:- Carrying capacity of the planet would be reduced to 1 Billion- Recommendation: look for the lifeboats

Germany China

Are we on Titanic after it hit the iceberg?

There were lifeboats for about half of the passengers, but only 1/3 made it into them - I hope, we can do better.

Captain E.J. Smith: “I cannot imagine any condition which would cause a ship to founder. Modern shipbuilding has gone beyond that.”

11.1%

ON THE EDGE?Earth is on the Edge ?

Humanity as a global species is on the edge

“Safe operating space for humanity”

Rockstroem et al., 2009

We don’t know where the edges are, but we keep running faster and faster ...

(On The Edge @ RunningInFog)

We are Reengineering the Planet ...

1750 2000

We are Reengineering the Planet ...

Marcott et al., 2013

1

2

3

4

}IPCC Assessment: Very Likely

We are Reengineering the Planet ...

We have moved from to back seats of the bus into the driver seat ...

“Has human activity over the past two centuries pushed the Earth out of the Holocene and into the Anthropocene?”

James Syvitski, 2012.

Anthropocene: An Epoch of our Making?

The Anthropocene: A transition to a new epoch? - a slowly hitting asteroid - a planetary accident - an extinction-class event

Plag, 2013

Small Steps no longer make much sense ...

We need a fundamental change of how we are in the world ...

What Would this Fundamental Change be?

Griggs et al., 2013

Millennium Development Goals (2005-2015): Mostly not reached

Sustainable Development Goals (2015-2025): Proposed, look very good ...

SDGs:1 Thriving lives and livelihoods2 Sustainable food security3 Secure sustainable water4 Universal clean energy5 Healthy and productive ecosystems6 Governance for sustainable societies

What Would this Fundamental Change be?

Griggs et al., 2013

Sustainable Development:“Development that meets the needs of the presence while safeguarding Earth’s life-support system, on which the welfare of current and future generation depends”

Plag et al., 2013

Economy is the link between humanity and Earth’s life support system

What Would this Fundamental Change be?

2,500 years ago: Hippocrates introduce an oath that focused medical activities and the benefit of the patients.

Plag et al., 2013

We propose an “economic oath” that focusses economy on the benefit of humanity:

“Participating in economic activities, I will strive to satisfy the needs of the people while safeguarding Earth’s life-support system, on which the welfare of current and future generations depends.”

Sustainable Development:“Development that meets the needs of the presence while safeguarding Earth’s life-support system, on which the welfare of current and future generation depends”

Small Steps in the Right DirectionSmall Steps in the Right Directionoror

A Fundamental Change of how we are in the World?A Fundamental Change of how we are in the World?

Will EPA’s proposed limits on carbon pollution make a difference?Will EPA’s proposed limits on carbon pollution make a difference?

EPA’s proposal is a small step in the right direction.

Many years ago, this would have been great!Today, it is far too little, far too late.

It won’t stop the run-away truck ...

“No problem can be solved with the same consciousness that created it.” Albert Einstein

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it”

Upton Sinclair