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Globalization of Precision Ag and
the Need for Higher Yields Dr. Matias Ruffo
Agronomy Manager Silvano Abreu, Shashikant Bhende, Kenneth Hylton, Peter Liu, Carlos Michiels, Eduardo Salgado
Mosaic Business Confidential
Growing Population 7 billion today, 9 billion in 2050
UN, World Population Assessment 2006
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
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0.1
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0.9 Po
pula
tion
(bill
ion)
Gro
wth
Rat
e (b
illio
n)
Increasing News Media Dialogue
Mosaic’s Mission
We Help the World Grow the Food it Needs
Serving customers in more than 40 countries Five potash mines and nine phosphate rock mines and plants
9.3 million tonnes annual production capacity of Potash
10 million tonnes annual production capacity of Phosphate
Production Distribution
Mosaic’s Premium Products
Fertilized Unfertilized
W Australia, Australia
Temperate Soils: 54-64% Subtropical Soils: +90%
Stewart et al; Agronomy Journal, 2005
Balanced Crop Nutrition and Soil Fertility
Matto Grosso, Brazil
Unfertilized Fertilized
The Big Four
Crop Area (1000 ha) Wheat 223,086 Corn 176,975 Rice 161,415
Soybean 110,236 Barley 50,862
The Yield Gap
Potential Attainable Actual
Yie
ld (
%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Potential: f (radiation, temperature, rainfall, genetics) Attainable: using best available technology Actual: using standard technology
Mosaic Business Confidential
SP PR
BA GO
SP PR BA GO
Contest Winner (bu/ac) 84 103 109 89
Whole Field (bu/ac) 78 89 76 72
Yield Gap (bu/ac) 38 49 59 37
Soybean in Brazil
SP PR BA GO
Contest Winner (bu/ac) 84 103 109 89
State Average (bu/ac) 46 54 50 52
2012 High Yield Soybean Contest Winners
CESB: http://cesbrasil.org.br/
Mosaic Business Confidential
• How big is the yield gap? • Can one single factor close the yield gap?
• If not, how much does each factor contribute to closing the yield gap?
Key questions to answer
Manageable factors that affect yield
Genetics Planting date
Planting rate
Fungicide application
Row spacing
Planting speed
Tillage
Previous crop/Rotation
Nutrition Weeds
Fertilizer management (rate, time, placement, source)
Insects
Diseases
Potential Attainable Actual
Yie
ld (
%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Factors Yield reducing factors: weeds diseases insects
Foliar fungicide Transgenic resistance Seed treatment
Potential Attainable Actual
Yie
ld (
%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Factors Yield enhancing factors: Structure (plants/ac, row width) Nutrient availability
Plant population Fertilizer
TREATMENT Fertility Nitrogen Genetics Population Fungicide
HIGH TECH MESZ Base + Slow release Triple stack 45,000 Strobilurin
Rem
ove
Tech
nolo
gy
Fertility No P & K Base + Slow release Triple stack 45,000 Strobilurin
Nitrogen MESZ Base Triple stack 45,000 Strobilurin
Genetics MESZ Base + Slow release Refuge 45,000 Strobilurin
Population MESZ Base + Slow release Triple stack 32,000 Strobilurin
Fungicide MESZ Base + Slow release Triple stack 45,000 none
STANDARD No P & K Base Refuge 32,000 none
Add
Tech
nolo
gy Fertility MESZ Base Refuge 32,000 none
Nitrogen No P & K Base + Slow release Refuge 32,000 none
Genetics No P & K Base Triple stack 32,000 none
Population No P & K Base Refuge 45,000 none
Fungicide No P & K Base Refuge 32,000 Strobilurin
Omission Plot
Sta
nd
ard
Hig
h T
ech
-MES
Z -N
-Gen
etic
s
-Pop
ula
tion
-Fu
ng
icid
e
Yie
ldYield Gap
Factor Omitted from High Tech
Yield response to each factor
(under High Tech)
Corn Country Production (MT) U.S.A. 313,918,000 China 192,904,232 Brazil 55,660,400
Argentina 23,799,800 Ukraine 22,837,900
Country Exports (MT) U.S.A. 50,906,268
Argentina 17,546,457 Brazil 10,815,275
Illinois, U.S.A.
Dr. Below U. of Illinois, USA
11 sites – 2011
Stan
dard
Hig
h T
ech
-MES
Z -N
-Hyb
rid
-Pop
ula
tion
-Fu
ngi
cide
Cor
n Y
ield
(bu
/ac)
150
160
170
180
190
200
High Tech Omit MicroEssentials SZ
15%
Santa Fe, Argentina
Dr. Borras U. of Rosario, Argentina
One site – 2 years
Stan
dard
Hig
h T
ech
-MES
Z
-Pop
ula
tion
-Fu
ngi
cide
-Gen
etic
s
Cor
n Y
ield
(bu
/ac)
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
High Tech Omit MicroEssentials SZ
19%
late season corn
Matto Grosso, Brazil
Dr. Kappes Fundacao MT, Brazil
Stan
dard
Hig
h T
ech
-Nu
trit
ion
-Pop
ula
tion
-Fu
ngi
cide
-Gen
etic
s
Cor
n Y
ield
(bu
/ac)
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
One site – 2 years
14%
double crop corn
Soybean Country Production (MT) U.S.A. 83171600 Brazil 74815400
Argentina 48878800 China 14485105 India 12282000
Country Exports (MT) U.S.A. 42350556 Brazil 25860785
Argentina 13616013
Illinois, U.S.A.
Average Response (4 sites)
Dr. Below U. of Illinois, USA
Stan
dard
Hig
h Te
ch
-MES
Z
-Var
iety
-Fun
gici
de
-Ins
ecti
cide
-Fol
iar
-See
d Tr
eat.
Soyb
ean
Yie
ld (
bu/a
c)
50
55
60
65
70
Four sites – 2012
High Tech Omit MicroEssentials SZ
14%
Santa Fe, Argentina St
anda
rd
Hig
h T
ech
-MES
Z
-Pop
ula
tion
-Fu
ngi
cide
-Irr
igat
ion
Soyb
ean
Yie
ld (
bu/a
c)
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Dr. Borras U. of Rosario, Argentina
One site – 2012/13 High Tech Omit
MicroEssentials SZ
18%
1.Increased (doubled) plant population • 200-280K seeds/ac, • Crossed, at 20 in
2.Doubled P, K. • Included elemental sulfur
3.High yielding variety
Standard • Already applying fungicides 3-5 times • Inoculation • Liming, pH is an issue in Brazil
High Yield Soybean - Brazil
http://cesbrasil.org.br/
Soybean Yield Contest - Brazil
• Very large potential to increase yields
• Mosaic is also working with these farmers
• Rural development projects that include other interventions
water filter check dam
What about for the smallholder?
Corn in Guatemala
Large Small
Corn Yield Gap
Foley et al. 2011, Nature
Corn in Guatemala
Project with Mayan communities in Alta Verapaz Agronomic practices included: Double plant population Planting 2 seeds per hill (vs 5) Uniform row spacing (35 in vs quasi random) Seed treatment Balanced crop nutrition (secondary and micros)
Traditional
Corn in Guatemala Planting in rows
Right Source
Right Rate, Place and Time
Corn in Guatemala
In the program Traditional
62 bu/ac 30
bu/ac
Wheat in India
Large Small
Wheat Gap Fraction
Foley et al. 2011, Nature
40 on-farm strip trials with IPNI Used Wheat Nutrient Expert Reduced seeding rate (45 lb/ac vs 65 lb/ac)
Balanced Nutrition NPK +S + ZnB vs NP
In the program
Traditional
Wheat in India
In the program Traditional
53 bu/ac 77 bu/ac
46%
Wheat in India
Summary
• More people and they will want to eat better
• We must increase crop yields
• We can reduce the yield gap applying proven technologies
• No silver bullet. Technologies work as a team.
• Biggest challenge will be to do it minimizing environmental impact and as efficiently as possible
• Precision Ag plays a key role
Precision Agriculture and the 4Rs
Precision Ag in SE Asia – Dr Majumdar
Precision Ag in Southern Cone+Brazil Dr Ruffo
Wednesday, 4 PM
Smallholder Ag
Kenya
China
Guatemala
India
Challenges • Small fields
– India: 62% farmers hold less than 2.5 ac – China:80% farms average 0.5 ac
• Fragmented landscape
• Complex terrain
• Very limited mechanization
• Limited Agronomic information – Calibrations
– Fertilizer and crop management recommendations
• Soil and plant testing: – Expensive
– Limited availability
• Imbalanced Crop Nutrition – Excessive N application
– Low K application.
– Multiple deficiencies
Challenges China, Asia, Africa, and Central America
Adapt tools and technolgies: SoilDoc kit
• Developed by Dr Ray Weil and Dr Pedro Sanchez
• Portable toolkit
• Measures –Chemical: pH, OM, EC, nitrate-N, sulfate-S, phosphate-P, K –Plant: sap N, P, K, and S –Physical: surface sealing strength, compaction, water content
• Cost: 1-2 U$S/sample (not including labor)
• Ideal to compare low and high yielding areas
$$$$ USD
$$$ USD $$ USD
$ USD Dr Ivan Monasterio, CIMMYT
Adapt tools and technologies: crop sensors
Nitrogen Uptake (kg N/ha)
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Whe
at Y
ield
(kg
/ha)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
Farmer's Field
0 5 10 15 20 25
Kg
N/h
a
0
50
100
150
200
250
Mexico: wheat and nitrogen
Nitrogen Demand Residual Nitrogen
Sensor Calibration
Active NDVI Sensor
On-farm strip tests
Sensor Strip N Rich Strip
Dr Ivan Monasterio, CIMMYT
432 on-farm strip trials
No yield difference Reduced N rate: 70 lb N/ac
Dr Ivan Monasterio, CIMMYT
Sensor increased N Use Efficiency
Adoption Adoption of NDVI Sensor in the Sonora Valley
Dr Ivan Monasterio, CIMMYT
China
• Food security is national security: must increase yields
• Increasing environmental pressure
• Largest potential in Inner Mongolia and North East: • Large farms • Potatoes, corn, soybean • Eager to apply technology and improve yield and efficiency
• Government investing in soil testing and improving fertilizer recommendations
• Successful examples with smallholders
China • Xinzhou City, Shanxi Province
• Average field size: 0.2 to 0.4 ac
• 2,000,000 ac of corn in Shanxi Province
• Average Yield: 85 bu/ac
• 2.5 ac soil sampling grid
pH OM N P K
Ave. 8.0 0.22 8.3 8.3 88 CV (%) 1.2 47 68 46 19 Deficient (%) 100 86 23
higher P close to houses
• Yield increased: 1,025 kg/ha (12%) • Net Income increased 9%
Wang et al., Better Crops, 2006
Low P on sandy soils
Brazil and Argentina
• Brazil:
– Very large potential, relatively low adoption
– Coops and farmer organizations are key
– Diversity of crops: soybean, corn, sugarcane, coffee, citrus
– Operational efficiency gains are extremely valuable
Brazil and Argentina
• Brazil:
– Very large potential, relatively low adoption
– Coops and farmer organizations are key
– Diversity of crops: soybean, corn, sugarcane, coffee, citrus
– Operational efficiency gains are extremely valuable
• Argentina:
– Large potential, good adoption
– Consultants play a KEY role
– Rented land dominates and is a barrier
– Low cost / efficiency is key
Summary
• We must and can increase crop yields globally
• Precision Agriculture can help to do it more efficiently
• Need to understand the limiting factor/s in different regions
• Adapt the technology to each region
Thank you! matias.ruffo@mosaicco.com
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