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8/7/2019 Global Warming: Is it Real? Can it Affect Violent Weather? (David Karoly, Ph.D.)
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Global Warming:Global Warming:
Is it real?Is it real?
Can it affect violent weather?Can it affect violent weather?
Global Warming:Global Warming:
Is it real?Is it real?
Can it affect violent weather?Can it affect violent weather?
Based on
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Third Assessment Report of IPCCSummary for Policy Makers
available from www.ipcc.ch
and recent updates
8/7/2019 Global Warming: Is it Real? Can it Affect Violent Weather? (David Karoly, Ph.D.)
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Recent global warming quotes Senator James Inhofe (R, Oklahoma), Chair,
Senate Environment and Public Works Comm., in
a speech to the US Senate on Jan 4, 2005 I
called the threat of catastrophic global warming the
greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American
people
British Prime Minister Tony Blair in a speech on 14
Sept 2004 I want to concentrate on what I believe
to be the world's greatest environmental challenge:climate change
8/7/2019 Global Warming: Is it Real? Can it Affect Violent Weather? (David Karoly, Ph.D.)
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8/7/2019 Global Warming: Is it Real? Can it Affect Violent Weather? (David Karoly, Ph.D.)
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The global-average surface temperature has
increased over the 20th century by 0.60.2CThe 4 hottest years globally were 1998, 2002, 2003 and 2004.
From the Hadley Centre, UK
8/7/2019 Global Warming: Is it Real? Can it Affect Violent Weather? (David Karoly, Ph.D.)
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8/7/2019 Global Warming: Is it Real? Can it Affect Violent Weather? (David Karoly, Ph.D.)
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Reconstructions of climate data for the last 1000years ... indicate this warming was unusual and is
unlikely to be entirely natural in origin
8/7/2019 Global Warming: Is it Real? Can it Affect Violent Weather? (David Karoly, Ph.D.)
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Concentrations
of atmospheric
greenhouse gases
have continued
to increase as aresult of human
activities
8/7/2019 Global Warming: Is it Real? Can it Affect Violent Weather? (David Karoly, Ph.D.)
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Most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is
likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas
concentrations
Runs
with
NCARclimate
model
8/7/2019 Global Warming: Is it Real? Can it Affect Violent Weather? (David Karoly, Ph.D.)
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In the light of new evidence andtaking into account the remaining
uncertainties, most of the observed
warming over the last 50 years islikely to have been due to the
increase in greenhouse gas
concentrations
8/7/2019 Global Warming: Is it Real? Can it Affect Violent Weather? (David Karoly, Ph.D.)
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Human influences will continue to
change atmospheric composition
throughout the 21st century
Emission Scenarios of the IPCCA1: rapid growth, rapid technologyintroduction
A2:self-reliance and local identity
B1: clean and resource efficient technology
B2: local, environmental, social equity diversetechnology
8/7/2019 Global Warming: Is it Real? Can it Affect Violent Weather? (David Karoly, Ph.D.)
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Global average temperature and sea level are
projected to rise under all IPCC SRES scenarios.
8/7/2019 Global Warming: Is it Real? Can it Affect Violent Weather? (David Karoly, Ph.D.)
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The projected
rate of warming
is much largerthan the
observed
changes during
the 20thcentury and is
very likely to be
without
precedent
during at leastthe last 10,000
years
8/7/2019 Global Warming: Is it Real? Can it Affect Violent Weather? (David Karoly, Ph.D.)
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Can it affect violent weather?
Poleward shift of climate zones
Warmer temperatures mean higher moisture
content in the atmosphere more intense rainfall,
more flash floods
More evaporation in summer - less soil moisture,more droughts
Hurricanes: warmer ocean temperatures likely to
lead to more intense storms, frequency change??
Severe storms, tornados: very uncertain
Sea level rise: will cause greater impacts
from coastal storms
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