Global Warming and forest fires risk

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Climate change and forestClimate change and forest

fires riskfires riskJohann G. Goldammer and Nikola Nikolov

UNISDR Global Wildland Fire

NetworkGLOBAL FIRE MONITORING CENTRE (GFMC)

European and Mediterranean Workshop

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON WATER-RELATED AND MARINE RISKS26-27 October 2009

Murcia (Spain)

http://www.fire.uni-freiburg.de

“Global warming”

“Climate change”

In order to work out what kind of action should be taken on global warming, theUnited Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), created aforecast on what the climate conditions will be like by the end of the century. This

forecast was called the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES).

SRES Temperature forecasts

Case Temperature increase Temperature increase

Best estimate to 2100 Likely range to 2100

B1 scenario +1.8 +1.1 – 2.9A1T scenario +2.4 +1.4 – 3.8

B2 scenario +2.4 +1.4 – 3.8

A1B scenario +2.8 +1.7 – 4.4

A2 scenario +3.4 +2.0 – 5.4A1FI scenario +4.0 +2.4 – 6.4

Departures in temperature in °C (from the 1990 valu e)

Global Warming Impacts

Impact from global warming onthe occurrence of forest fires in

Poland

Ryszard Szczygieł, Barbara Ubysz, Józef Piwnicki

ROME - Climate change is making forest fires around the world

bigger and more intense, increasing the threat to people and the

environment and costing countries millions in damage and

firefighting expenses, the United Nations reports.

FAO global assessment of forest fires-2005

Mediterranean countries also said that warmer temperatures andreduced rainfall in summer — both associated with climate change —would increase the risk of fires in the region and beyond.

North American researchers reported that the incidence

and severity of fires "will increase dramatically" with globalwarming.

Climate Change Impacts on the United StatesThe Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change

Overview: AlaskaBy the National Assessment Synthesis Team, US Global Change Research ProgramPublished in 2000

Increasing number of WILDFIRE ACRES BURNED

(State, Tribal, Federal Lands 1960-2008)

MORE LARGE FIRES

FEDERAL LARGE WILDFIRES 1979-2008

1979-1988 1989-1998 1999-2008

50-100k Acres

100-250k Acres

Over 250k Acres

Total of all fires

Over the past several decades, the area of Canadian borealforest affected by fire and insects has doubled. Although there arecomplex factors involved, the greatest increases so far have been inthe regions of greatest warming. Continued warming will produce

greater seasonal contrasts which, combined with an expected 44%

increase in lightning strikes, is expected to increase the area burnedby 78% in the next 50 years.

Doug Woolford

Fire regimes are determined by four factors: intensity (how severe

fires are), frequency (how often fires occur), season (the time of the year firesoccur) and scale (how extensive each fire is and the patchiness of the burnt

and unburnt mosaic).

Fire regime

“Professor Balzter said "Last century a typical forest in Siberia hadabout 100 years after a fire to recover before it burned again. Butnew observations by Russian scientist Dr Kharuk have shown thatfire now returns more frequently, about every 65 years. At the same

time annual temperatures in Siberia have risen by almost twodegrees Celsius, about twice as fast as the global average. Andsince 1990 the warming of Siberia has become even faster thanbefore." “

Climate Change Threatens Siberian ForestsScienceDaily (Aug. 5, 2007)

Trans-Baikal Region (SE Russia)

May 2003

8 May 2003

Smoke from fires in the Transbaikal Region,extending to Sakhalin, Japan, Alaska and Europe

11 March 2008

Smoke from fires in the Transbaikal Region,

extending to Sakhalin, Japan and Alaska

Burnt area in the World

Impact of the forest fires :• Degradation

Deforestation• Soil erosion

• Appearance of insects

• Decrease of biodiversity

• Human health

• Economy• Carbon’s (CO2,CO) and other gases

emission

Soil water

regime andfloods

1954 1954 1964 1964

20012001

land-use change

Conclusion

Climate change will increase

the risk of fires in the future !

UNISDR Global Wildland Fire

Thank you very muchfor the attention !

http://www.fire.uni-freiburg.de

UNISDR Global Wildland FireNetwork

GLOBAL FIRE MONITORING CENTRE (GFMC)

Global Warming and forest fires risk

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Point Patterns in Forest Fires - Brigham Young Universitynet.lib.byu.edu/~mwj/SpatiaLABS/PDFs/PntPatternsForestFires.pdf · Point Patterns in Forest Fires Sumeeta Srinivasan 2 Data