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Workshop on climatic analysis and mapping for agriculture 14-17 June 2005, Bologna, Italy. GIS ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE WARMING IMPACT ON WINE GROWING REGIONS DISTRIBUTION IN SLOVENIA. Andreja Sušnik* Lučka Kajfež-Bogataj** Blaž Kurnik* - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
GIS ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE WARMING IMPACT ON
WINE GROWING REGIONS DISTRIBUTION IN SLOVENIA
Andreja Sušnik Lučka Kajfež-Bogataj
Blaž Kurnik
Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Biotechnical Faculty University of Ljubljana
Workshop on climatic analysis and mapping for agriculture14-17 June 2005 Bologna Italy
Talk Outline
bull Climate Change Issues
bull Winegrowing in Slovenia
bull Winkler indexbull GIS Techniquebull Resultsbull Conclusions
Starting points
bull The baseline climate in a region largely determines the varieties that can ripen and the general style (flavor and structure) of wine an area can produce
bull Grapevines are generally grown in narrow climatic zones for a specific varietyrsquos optimum quality putting them at a greater potential risk from climatic variations and change
bull Good wine cannot be made from bad grapes
Climate Change Potential Effects on Viticulture
1048707 Warmer and longer growing seasons 1048707 Altered phenological timing 1048707 Altered ripening profiles 1048707 Climatic thresholds 1048707 Altered disease and pest timing and severity 1048707 Altered water needs 1048707 CO2 issues (growth and quality) 1048707 Need for management adaptations
Maracchi 2003
ITALY
German study
Germany Austria (Stock 2003)
Winegrowing regions in Slovenia and existing vineyards locations (red) 17000 ha (54000
vines)
Primorje region
Posavje region
Podravjeregion
Method
bull Comparison of baseline period 1961-1990 to 1975- 2004
bull modified Winkler climatic index as climate indice
bull GIS technique (54 stations)
bull Simple analysis do not account for moisture issues respiration effects winter cold extreme weather etc
Geographical Resources Analysis Support System (GRASS) software
bull GRASS is a free software under terms of general public license developed in the Centre for Applied Geographical and Spatial Research at Baylor University
bull There is also an internal computer language that allows user to create new applications and link GRASS to other software packages (eg GSTAT)
bull In this study we developed methodology to plot contours of temperature sums over small regions Thus interpolation using the simple kriging techniques has been performed for each point of the 100 x 100 m grid over Slovenia land below 1000 m asl Estimates have been made for each point of the grid using 55 locations
bull For spatial estimation of the change the integrated geostatistical GRASS functions were used
Data of land use were derived by CORINE land cover and by Ministry of Agriculture Forestry and Food vineyards locations were obtained
Locations of meteorological stations
used in the GIS analysis (54 red dots)
Posavje region
region
The classification of the viticultural climatic regions according Winkler climatic index (Riou 1994)
bull Area I lt 1390 degC Geneve Vienna Geisenheim Dijon Bordeaux bull Area II 1391 to 1670 degC Budapest Napa (USA) Santiago (Chile)bull Area III 1671 to 1950 degC Montepellier (France) Milan bull Area IV 1951 to 2220 degC Venice Mendoza (Argentina) The cape (South Africa)bull Area V gt 2220deg C Split (Croatia) Palermo (Italy) Algiers (Algeria)
October 31
April 1avg 10) - (T IW
Winegrowing regions according to modified
Winkler climatic index (IWm) as used in Slovenia
bull Area I lt 1390 degC
bull Area II 1391 to 1670 degC
Zone 1 lt 1150 degC
Zone 2 1151 to 1250 degC
Zone 3 1251 to 1350 degC
Zone 4 1351 to 1450 degC
Zone 5 gt 1450deg C
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 4
Zone 5
Variety classificationbased on the average growing season temperature
6 world winegrowing regions are marked
Comparison with 3 Slovenian winegrowing regions
An increase in average growing season temperature
144
146
148
150
152
154
156
158
160
162
Posavje Podravje Primorje
Average growing season temperature (degC)
1961-1990
1975-2004
Slovenian land area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
Zone IWm
Area
1961-1990 (ha)
Area
1975-2004(ha)
1 lt 1150 0C 1307071 726 764051 424
2 1150 - 1250 0C 389554 216 392193 218
3 1250 - 1350 0C 76935 43 469105 261
4 1350 - 1450 0C 27039 15 164508 91
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 10685 06
Slovenian viticultural area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
IWm
Area (ha)
1961-1990 Area (ha)
1975-2004
1 lt 1150 0C 7796 50 248 2
2 1150 - 1250 0C 3708 23 3008 19
3 1250 - 1350 0C 2308 15 8232 52
4 1350 - 1450 0C 1917 12 3670 23
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 571 4
Distribution of IWm in Slovenia during 1961 ndash
1990 and existing viticulture areas
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black)
Comparison of IWm areas in Slovenia
1961-1990 1975-2004
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black spots)
The analysis of elevation of existing wine growing regions
bull average elevation shift
for 132 m from
1961-1990 to 1975-2004
bull In recent period the potential viticultural regions possible up
to 700 m asl
zone1961-1990 (m)
1975-2004 (m)
h(m)
1 578 672 +96
2 238 398 +160
3 161 267 +106
4 57 168 +111
5 28
Conclusionsbull Geostatistics can be applied to describe the spatial
variability of meteorological parameters over small regions bull Later varieties could gain on their structure with climate
change because their ripening would be shifted to a more optimal time ie the mid September in Primorska and the beginning of October in Podravje and Posavje
bull The ripening of earlier varieties (Pinot Gris Pinot Noir Chardonnay Pinot Blanc) may shift to the period with relatively high temperatures also over night which makes them less favourable In Primorje region certain adjustments are required
bull Cooler regions should benefit more than warm regions with the ability to shift to a wider range of varieties
bull Some regions near their optimum may no longer be able to produce the same wines without changes in technologies
Talk Outline
bull Climate Change Issues
bull Winegrowing in Slovenia
bull Winkler indexbull GIS Techniquebull Resultsbull Conclusions
Starting points
bull The baseline climate in a region largely determines the varieties that can ripen and the general style (flavor and structure) of wine an area can produce
bull Grapevines are generally grown in narrow climatic zones for a specific varietyrsquos optimum quality putting them at a greater potential risk from climatic variations and change
bull Good wine cannot be made from bad grapes
Climate Change Potential Effects on Viticulture
1048707 Warmer and longer growing seasons 1048707 Altered phenological timing 1048707 Altered ripening profiles 1048707 Climatic thresholds 1048707 Altered disease and pest timing and severity 1048707 Altered water needs 1048707 CO2 issues (growth and quality) 1048707 Need for management adaptations
Maracchi 2003
ITALY
German study
Germany Austria (Stock 2003)
Winegrowing regions in Slovenia and existing vineyards locations (red) 17000 ha (54000
vines)
Primorje region
Posavje region
Podravjeregion
Method
bull Comparison of baseline period 1961-1990 to 1975- 2004
bull modified Winkler climatic index as climate indice
bull GIS technique (54 stations)
bull Simple analysis do not account for moisture issues respiration effects winter cold extreme weather etc
Geographical Resources Analysis Support System (GRASS) software
bull GRASS is a free software under terms of general public license developed in the Centre for Applied Geographical and Spatial Research at Baylor University
bull There is also an internal computer language that allows user to create new applications and link GRASS to other software packages (eg GSTAT)
bull In this study we developed methodology to plot contours of temperature sums over small regions Thus interpolation using the simple kriging techniques has been performed for each point of the 100 x 100 m grid over Slovenia land below 1000 m asl Estimates have been made for each point of the grid using 55 locations
bull For spatial estimation of the change the integrated geostatistical GRASS functions were used
Data of land use were derived by CORINE land cover and by Ministry of Agriculture Forestry and Food vineyards locations were obtained
Locations of meteorological stations
used in the GIS analysis (54 red dots)
Posavje region
region
The classification of the viticultural climatic regions according Winkler climatic index (Riou 1994)
bull Area I lt 1390 degC Geneve Vienna Geisenheim Dijon Bordeaux bull Area II 1391 to 1670 degC Budapest Napa (USA) Santiago (Chile)bull Area III 1671 to 1950 degC Montepellier (France) Milan bull Area IV 1951 to 2220 degC Venice Mendoza (Argentina) The cape (South Africa)bull Area V gt 2220deg C Split (Croatia) Palermo (Italy) Algiers (Algeria)
October 31
April 1avg 10) - (T IW
Winegrowing regions according to modified
Winkler climatic index (IWm) as used in Slovenia
bull Area I lt 1390 degC
bull Area II 1391 to 1670 degC
Zone 1 lt 1150 degC
Zone 2 1151 to 1250 degC
Zone 3 1251 to 1350 degC
Zone 4 1351 to 1450 degC
Zone 5 gt 1450deg C
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 4
Zone 5
Variety classificationbased on the average growing season temperature
6 world winegrowing regions are marked
Comparison with 3 Slovenian winegrowing regions
An increase in average growing season temperature
144
146
148
150
152
154
156
158
160
162
Posavje Podravje Primorje
Average growing season temperature (degC)
1961-1990
1975-2004
Slovenian land area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
Zone IWm
Area
1961-1990 (ha)
Area
1975-2004(ha)
1 lt 1150 0C 1307071 726 764051 424
2 1150 - 1250 0C 389554 216 392193 218
3 1250 - 1350 0C 76935 43 469105 261
4 1350 - 1450 0C 27039 15 164508 91
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 10685 06
Slovenian viticultural area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
IWm
Area (ha)
1961-1990 Area (ha)
1975-2004
1 lt 1150 0C 7796 50 248 2
2 1150 - 1250 0C 3708 23 3008 19
3 1250 - 1350 0C 2308 15 8232 52
4 1350 - 1450 0C 1917 12 3670 23
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 571 4
Distribution of IWm in Slovenia during 1961 ndash
1990 and existing viticulture areas
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black)
Comparison of IWm areas in Slovenia
1961-1990 1975-2004
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black spots)
The analysis of elevation of existing wine growing regions
bull average elevation shift
for 132 m from
1961-1990 to 1975-2004
bull In recent period the potential viticultural regions possible up
to 700 m asl
zone1961-1990 (m)
1975-2004 (m)
h(m)
1 578 672 +96
2 238 398 +160
3 161 267 +106
4 57 168 +111
5 28
Conclusionsbull Geostatistics can be applied to describe the spatial
variability of meteorological parameters over small regions bull Later varieties could gain on their structure with climate
change because their ripening would be shifted to a more optimal time ie the mid September in Primorska and the beginning of October in Podravje and Posavje
bull The ripening of earlier varieties (Pinot Gris Pinot Noir Chardonnay Pinot Blanc) may shift to the period with relatively high temperatures also over night which makes them less favourable In Primorje region certain adjustments are required
bull Cooler regions should benefit more than warm regions with the ability to shift to a wider range of varieties
bull Some regions near their optimum may no longer be able to produce the same wines without changes in technologies
Starting points
bull The baseline climate in a region largely determines the varieties that can ripen and the general style (flavor and structure) of wine an area can produce
bull Grapevines are generally grown in narrow climatic zones for a specific varietyrsquos optimum quality putting them at a greater potential risk from climatic variations and change
bull Good wine cannot be made from bad grapes
Climate Change Potential Effects on Viticulture
1048707 Warmer and longer growing seasons 1048707 Altered phenological timing 1048707 Altered ripening profiles 1048707 Climatic thresholds 1048707 Altered disease and pest timing and severity 1048707 Altered water needs 1048707 CO2 issues (growth and quality) 1048707 Need for management adaptations
Maracchi 2003
ITALY
German study
Germany Austria (Stock 2003)
Winegrowing regions in Slovenia and existing vineyards locations (red) 17000 ha (54000
vines)
Primorje region
Posavje region
Podravjeregion
Method
bull Comparison of baseline period 1961-1990 to 1975- 2004
bull modified Winkler climatic index as climate indice
bull GIS technique (54 stations)
bull Simple analysis do not account for moisture issues respiration effects winter cold extreme weather etc
Geographical Resources Analysis Support System (GRASS) software
bull GRASS is a free software under terms of general public license developed in the Centre for Applied Geographical and Spatial Research at Baylor University
bull There is also an internal computer language that allows user to create new applications and link GRASS to other software packages (eg GSTAT)
bull In this study we developed methodology to plot contours of temperature sums over small regions Thus interpolation using the simple kriging techniques has been performed for each point of the 100 x 100 m grid over Slovenia land below 1000 m asl Estimates have been made for each point of the grid using 55 locations
bull For spatial estimation of the change the integrated geostatistical GRASS functions were used
Data of land use were derived by CORINE land cover and by Ministry of Agriculture Forestry and Food vineyards locations were obtained
Locations of meteorological stations
used in the GIS analysis (54 red dots)
Posavje region
region
The classification of the viticultural climatic regions according Winkler climatic index (Riou 1994)
bull Area I lt 1390 degC Geneve Vienna Geisenheim Dijon Bordeaux bull Area II 1391 to 1670 degC Budapest Napa (USA) Santiago (Chile)bull Area III 1671 to 1950 degC Montepellier (France) Milan bull Area IV 1951 to 2220 degC Venice Mendoza (Argentina) The cape (South Africa)bull Area V gt 2220deg C Split (Croatia) Palermo (Italy) Algiers (Algeria)
October 31
April 1avg 10) - (T IW
Winegrowing regions according to modified
Winkler climatic index (IWm) as used in Slovenia
bull Area I lt 1390 degC
bull Area II 1391 to 1670 degC
Zone 1 lt 1150 degC
Zone 2 1151 to 1250 degC
Zone 3 1251 to 1350 degC
Zone 4 1351 to 1450 degC
Zone 5 gt 1450deg C
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 4
Zone 5
Variety classificationbased on the average growing season temperature
6 world winegrowing regions are marked
Comparison with 3 Slovenian winegrowing regions
An increase in average growing season temperature
144
146
148
150
152
154
156
158
160
162
Posavje Podravje Primorje
Average growing season temperature (degC)
1961-1990
1975-2004
Slovenian land area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
Zone IWm
Area
1961-1990 (ha)
Area
1975-2004(ha)
1 lt 1150 0C 1307071 726 764051 424
2 1150 - 1250 0C 389554 216 392193 218
3 1250 - 1350 0C 76935 43 469105 261
4 1350 - 1450 0C 27039 15 164508 91
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 10685 06
Slovenian viticultural area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
IWm
Area (ha)
1961-1990 Area (ha)
1975-2004
1 lt 1150 0C 7796 50 248 2
2 1150 - 1250 0C 3708 23 3008 19
3 1250 - 1350 0C 2308 15 8232 52
4 1350 - 1450 0C 1917 12 3670 23
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 571 4
Distribution of IWm in Slovenia during 1961 ndash
1990 and existing viticulture areas
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black)
Comparison of IWm areas in Slovenia
1961-1990 1975-2004
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black spots)
The analysis of elevation of existing wine growing regions
bull average elevation shift
for 132 m from
1961-1990 to 1975-2004
bull In recent period the potential viticultural regions possible up
to 700 m asl
zone1961-1990 (m)
1975-2004 (m)
h(m)
1 578 672 +96
2 238 398 +160
3 161 267 +106
4 57 168 +111
5 28
Conclusionsbull Geostatistics can be applied to describe the spatial
variability of meteorological parameters over small regions bull Later varieties could gain on their structure with climate
change because their ripening would be shifted to a more optimal time ie the mid September in Primorska and the beginning of October in Podravje and Posavje
bull The ripening of earlier varieties (Pinot Gris Pinot Noir Chardonnay Pinot Blanc) may shift to the period with relatively high temperatures also over night which makes them less favourable In Primorje region certain adjustments are required
bull Cooler regions should benefit more than warm regions with the ability to shift to a wider range of varieties
bull Some regions near their optimum may no longer be able to produce the same wines without changes in technologies
Climate Change Potential Effects on Viticulture
1048707 Warmer and longer growing seasons 1048707 Altered phenological timing 1048707 Altered ripening profiles 1048707 Climatic thresholds 1048707 Altered disease and pest timing and severity 1048707 Altered water needs 1048707 CO2 issues (growth and quality) 1048707 Need for management adaptations
Maracchi 2003
ITALY
German study
Germany Austria (Stock 2003)
Winegrowing regions in Slovenia and existing vineyards locations (red) 17000 ha (54000
vines)
Primorje region
Posavje region
Podravjeregion
Method
bull Comparison of baseline period 1961-1990 to 1975- 2004
bull modified Winkler climatic index as climate indice
bull GIS technique (54 stations)
bull Simple analysis do not account for moisture issues respiration effects winter cold extreme weather etc
Geographical Resources Analysis Support System (GRASS) software
bull GRASS is a free software under terms of general public license developed in the Centre for Applied Geographical and Spatial Research at Baylor University
bull There is also an internal computer language that allows user to create new applications and link GRASS to other software packages (eg GSTAT)
bull In this study we developed methodology to plot contours of temperature sums over small regions Thus interpolation using the simple kriging techniques has been performed for each point of the 100 x 100 m grid over Slovenia land below 1000 m asl Estimates have been made for each point of the grid using 55 locations
bull For spatial estimation of the change the integrated geostatistical GRASS functions were used
Data of land use were derived by CORINE land cover and by Ministry of Agriculture Forestry and Food vineyards locations were obtained
Locations of meteorological stations
used in the GIS analysis (54 red dots)
Posavje region
region
The classification of the viticultural climatic regions according Winkler climatic index (Riou 1994)
bull Area I lt 1390 degC Geneve Vienna Geisenheim Dijon Bordeaux bull Area II 1391 to 1670 degC Budapest Napa (USA) Santiago (Chile)bull Area III 1671 to 1950 degC Montepellier (France) Milan bull Area IV 1951 to 2220 degC Venice Mendoza (Argentina) The cape (South Africa)bull Area V gt 2220deg C Split (Croatia) Palermo (Italy) Algiers (Algeria)
October 31
April 1avg 10) - (T IW
Winegrowing regions according to modified
Winkler climatic index (IWm) as used in Slovenia
bull Area I lt 1390 degC
bull Area II 1391 to 1670 degC
Zone 1 lt 1150 degC
Zone 2 1151 to 1250 degC
Zone 3 1251 to 1350 degC
Zone 4 1351 to 1450 degC
Zone 5 gt 1450deg C
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 4
Zone 5
Variety classificationbased on the average growing season temperature
6 world winegrowing regions are marked
Comparison with 3 Slovenian winegrowing regions
An increase in average growing season temperature
144
146
148
150
152
154
156
158
160
162
Posavje Podravje Primorje
Average growing season temperature (degC)
1961-1990
1975-2004
Slovenian land area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
Zone IWm
Area
1961-1990 (ha)
Area
1975-2004(ha)
1 lt 1150 0C 1307071 726 764051 424
2 1150 - 1250 0C 389554 216 392193 218
3 1250 - 1350 0C 76935 43 469105 261
4 1350 - 1450 0C 27039 15 164508 91
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 10685 06
Slovenian viticultural area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
IWm
Area (ha)
1961-1990 Area (ha)
1975-2004
1 lt 1150 0C 7796 50 248 2
2 1150 - 1250 0C 3708 23 3008 19
3 1250 - 1350 0C 2308 15 8232 52
4 1350 - 1450 0C 1917 12 3670 23
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 571 4
Distribution of IWm in Slovenia during 1961 ndash
1990 and existing viticulture areas
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black)
Comparison of IWm areas in Slovenia
1961-1990 1975-2004
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black spots)
The analysis of elevation of existing wine growing regions
bull average elevation shift
for 132 m from
1961-1990 to 1975-2004
bull In recent period the potential viticultural regions possible up
to 700 m asl
zone1961-1990 (m)
1975-2004 (m)
h(m)
1 578 672 +96
2 238 398 +160
3 161 267 +106
4 57 168 +111
5 28
Conclusionsbull Geostatistics can be applied to describe the spatial
variability of meteorological parameters over small regions bull Later varieties could gain on their structure with climate
change because their ripening would be shifted to a more optimal time ie the mid September in Primorska and the beginning of October in Podravje and Posavje
bull The ripening of earlier varieties (Pinot Gris Pinot Noir Chardonnay Pinot Blanc) may shift to the period with relatively high temperatures also over night which makes them less favourable In Primorje region certain adjustments are required
bull Cooler regions should benefit more than warm regions with the ability to shift to a wider range of varieties
bull Some regions near their optimum may no longer be able to produce the same wines without changes in technologies
Maracchi 2003
ITALY
German study
Germany Austria (Stock 2003)
Winegrowing regions in Slovenia and existing vineyards locations (red) 17000 ha (54000
vines)
Primorje region
Posavje region
Podravjeregion
Method
bull Comparison of baseline period 1961-1990 to 1975- 2004
bull modified Winkler climatic index as climate indice
bull GIS technique (54 stations)
bull Simple analysis do not account for moisture issues respiration effects winter cold extreme weather etc
Geographical Resources Analysis Support System (GRASS) software
bull GRASS is a free software under terms of general public license developed in the Centre for Applied Geographical and Spatial Research at Baylor University
bull There is also an internal computer language that allows user to create new applications and link GRASS to other software packages (eg GSTAT)
bull In this study we developed methodology to plot contours of temperature sums over small regions Thus interpolation using the simple kriging techniques has been performed for each point of the 100 x 100 m grid over Slovenia land below 1000 m asl Estimates have been made for each point of the grid using 55 locations
bull For spatial estimation of the change the integrated geostatistical GRASS functions were used
Data of land use were derived by CORINE land cover and by Ministry of Agriculture Forestry and Food vineyards locations were obtained
Locations of meteorological stations
used in the GIS analysis (54 red dots)
Posavje region
region
The classification of the viticultural climatic regions according Winkler climatic index (Riou 1994)
bull Area I lt 1390 degC Geneve Vienna Geisenheim Dijon Bordeaux bull Area II 1391 to 1670 degC Budapest Napa (USA) Santiago (Chile)bull Area III 1671 to 1950 degC Montepellier (France) Milan bull Area IV 1951 to 2220 degC Venice Mendoza (Argentina) The cape (South Africa)bull Area V gt 2220deg C Split (Croatia) Palermo (Italy) Algiers (Algeria)
October 31
April 1avg 10) - (T IW
Winegrowing regions according to modified
Winkler climatic index (IWm) as used in Slovenia
bull Area I lt 1390 degC
bull Area II 1391 to 1670 degC
Zone 1 lt 1150 degC
Zone 2 1151 to 1250 degC
Zone 3 1251 to 1350 degC
Zone 4 1351 to 1450 degC
Zone 5 gt 1450deg C
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 4
Zone 5
Variety classificationbased on the average growing season temperature
6 world winegrowing regions are marked
Comparison with 3 Slovenian winegrowing regions
An increase in average growing season temperature
144
146
148
150
152
154
156
158
160
162
Posavje Podravje Primorje
Average growing season temperature (degC)
1961-1990
1975-2004
Slovenian land area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
Zone IWm
Area
1961-1990 (ha)
Area
1975-2004(ha)
1 lt 1150 0C 1307071 726 764051 424
2 1150 - 1250 0C 389554 216 392193 218
3 1250 - 1350 0C 76935 43 469105 261
4 1350 - 1450 0C 27039 15 164508 91
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 10685 06
Slovenian viticultural area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
IWm
Area (ha)
1961-1990 Area (ha)
1975-2004
1 lt 1150 0C 7796 50 248 2
2 1150 - 1250 0C 3708 23 3008 19
3 1250 - 1350 0C 2308 15 8232 52
4 1350 - 1450 0C 1917 12 3670 23
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 571 4
Distribution of IWm in Slovenia during 1961 ndash
1990 and existing viticulture areas
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black)
Comparison of IWm areas in Slovenia
1961-1990 1975-2004
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black spots)
The analysis of elevation of existing wine growing regions
bull average elevation shift
for 132 m from
1961-1990 to 1975-2004
bull In recent period the potential viticultural regions possible up
to 700 m asl
zone1961-1990 (m)
1975-2004 (m)
h(m)
1 578 672 +96
2 238 398 +160
3 161 267 +106
4 57 168 +111
5 28
Conclusionsbull Geostatistics can be applied to describe the spatial
variability of meteorological parameters over small regions bull Later varieties could gain on their structure with climate
change because their ripening would be shifted to a more optimal time ie the mid September in Primorska and the beginning of October in Podravje and Posavje
bull The ripening of earlier varieties (Pinot Gris Pinot Noir Chardonnay Pinot Blanc) may shift to the period with relatively high temperatures also over night which makes them less favourable In Primorje region certain adjustments are required
bull Cooler regions should benefit more than warm regions with the ability to shift to a wider range of varieties
bull Some regions near their optimum may no longer be able to produce the same wines without changes in technologies
German study
Germany Austria (Stock 2003)
Winegrowing regions in Slovenia and existing vineyards locations (red) 17000 ha (54000
vines)
Primorje region
Posavje region
Podravjeregion
Method
bull Comparison of baseline period 1961-1990 to 1975- 2004
bull modified Winkler climatic index as climate indice
bull GIS technique (54 stations)
bull Simple analysis do not account for moisture issues respiration effects winter cold extreme weather etc
Geographical Resources Analysis Support System (GRASS) software
bull GRASS is a free software under terms of general public license developed in the Centre for Applied Geographical and Spatial Research at Baylor University
bull There is also an internal computer language that allows user to create new applications and link GRASS to other software packages (eg GSTAT)
bull In this study we developed methodology to plot contours of temperature sums over small regions Thus interpolation using the simple kriging techniques has been performed for each point of the 100 x 100 m grid over Slovenia land below 1000 m asl Estimates have been made for each point of the grid using 55 locations
bull For spatial estimation of the change the integrated geostatistical GRASS functions were used
Data of land use were derived by CORINE land cover and by Ministry of Agriculture Forestry and Food vineyards locations were obtained
Locations of meteorological stations
used in the GIS analysis (54 red dots)
Posavje region
region
The classification of the viticultural climatic regions according Winkler climatic index (Riou 1994)
bull Area I lt 1390 degC Geneve Vienna Geisenheim Dijon Bordeaux bull Area II 1391 to 1670 degC Budapest Napa (USA) Santiago (Chile)bull Area III 1671 to 1950 degC Montepellier (France) Milan bull Area IV 1951 to 2220 degC Venice Mendoza (Argentina) The cape (South Africa)bull Area V gt 2220deg C Split (Croatia) Palermo (Italy) Algiers (Algeria)
October 31
April 1avg 10) - (T IW
Winegrowing regions according to modified
Winkler climatic index (IWm) as used in Slovenia
bull Area I lt 1390 degC
bull Area II 1391 to 1670 degC
Zone 1 lt 1150 degC
Zone 2 1151 to 1250 degC
Zone 3 1251 to 1350 degC
Zone 4 1351 to 1450 degC
Zone 5 gt 1450deg C
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 4
Zone 5
Variety classificationbased on the average growing season temperature
6 world winegrowing regions are marked
Comparison with 3 Slovenian winegrowing regions
An increase in average growing season temperature
144
146
148
150
152
154
156
158
160
162
Posavje Podravje Primorje
Average growing season temperature (degC)
1961-1990
1975-2004
Slovenian land area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
Zone IWm
Area
1961-1990 (ha)
Area
1975-2004(ha)
1 lt 1150 0C 1307071 726 764051 424
2 1150 - 1250 0C 389554 216 392193 218
3 1250 - 1350 0C 76935 43 469105 261
4 1350 - 1450 0C 27039 15 164508 91
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 10685 06
Slovenian viticultural area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
IWm
Area (ha)
1961-1990 Area (ha)
1975-2004
1 lt 1150 0C 7796 50 248 2
2 1150 - 1250 0C 3708 23 3008 19
3 1250 - 1350 0C 2308 15 8232 52
4 1350 - 1450 0C 1917 12 3670 23
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 571 4
Distribution of IWm in Slovenia during 1961 ndash
1990 and existing viticulture areas
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black)
Comparison of IWm areas in Slovenia
1961-1990 1975-2004
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black spots)
The analysis of elevation of existing wine growing regions
bull average elevation shift
for 132 m from
1961-1990 to 1975-2004
bull In recent period the potential viticultural regions possible up
to 700 m asl
zone1961-1990 (m)
1975-2004 (m)
h(m)
1 578 672 +96
2 238 398 +160
3 161 267 +106
4 57 168 +111
5 28
Conclusionsbull Geostatistics can be applied to describe the spatial
variability of meteorological parameters over small regions bull Later varieties could gain on their structure with climate
change because their ripening would be shifted to a more optimal time ie the mid September in Primorska and the beginning of October in Podravje and Posavje
bull The ripening of earlier varieties (Pinot Gris Pinot Noir Chardonnay Pinot Blanc) may shift to the period with relatively high temperatures also over night which makes them less favourable In Primorje region certain adjustments are required
bull Cooler regions should benefit more than warm regions with the ability to shift to a wider range of varieties
bull Some regions near their optimum may no longer be able to produce the same wines without changes in technologies
Germany Austria (Stock 2003)
Winegrowing regions in Slovenia and existing vineyards locations (red) 17000 ha (54000
vines)
Primorje region
Posavje region
Podravjeregion
Method
bull Comparison of baseline period 1961-1990 to 1975- 2004
bull modified Winkler climatic index as climate indice
bull GIS technique (54 stations)
bull Simple analysis do not account for moisture issues respiration effects winter cold extreme weather etc
Geographical Resources Analysis Support System (GRASS) software
bull GRASS is a free software under terms of general public license developed in the Centre for Applied Geographical and Spatial Research at Baylor University
bull There is also an internal computer language that allows user to create new applications and link GRASS to other software packages (eg GSTAT)
bull In this study we developed methodology to plot contours of temperature sums over small regions Thus interpolation using the simple kriging techniques has been performed for each point of the 100 x 100 m grid over Slovenia land below 1000 m asl Estimates have been made for each point of the grid using 55 locations
bull For spatial estimation of the change the integrated geostatistical GRASS functions were used
Data of land use were derived by CORINE land cover and by Ministry of Agriculture Forestry and Food vineyards locations were obtained
Locations of meteorological stations
used in the GIS analysis (54 red dots)
Posavje region
region
The classification of the viticultural climatic regions according Winkler climatic index (Riou 1994)
bull Area I lt 1390 degC Geneve Vienna Geisenheim Dijon Bordeaux bull Area II 1391 to 1670 degC Budapest Napa (USA) Santiago (Chile)bull Area III 1671 to 1950 degC Montepellier (France) Milan bull Area IV 1951 to 2220 degC Venice Mendoza (Argentina) The cape (South Africa)bull Area V gt 2220deg C Split (Croatia) Palermo (Italy) Algiers (Algeria)
October 31
April 1avg 10) - (T IW
Winegrowing regions according to modified
Winkler climatic index (IWm) as used in Slovenia
bull Area I lt 1390 degC
bull Area II 1391 to 1670 degC
Zone 1 lt 1150 degC
Zone 2 1151 to 1250 degC
Zone 3 1251 to 1350 degC
Zone 4 1351 to 1450 degC
Zone 5 gt 1450deg C
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 4
Zone 5
Variety classificationbased on the average growing season temperature
6 world winegrowing regions are marked
Comparison with 3 Slovenian winegrowing regions
An increase in average growing season temperature
144
146
148
150
152
154
156
158
160
162
Posavje Podravje Primorje
Average growing season temperature (degC)
1961-1990
1975-2004
Slovenian land area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
Zone IWm
Area
1961-1990 (ha)
Area
1975-2004(ha)
1 lt 1150 0C 1307071 726 764051 424
2 1150 - 1250 0C 389554 216 392193 218
3 1250 - 1350 0C 76935 43 469105 261
4 1350 - 1450 0C 27039 15 164508 91
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 10685 06
Slovenian viticultural area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
IWm
Area (ha)
1961-1990 Area (ha)
1975-2004
1 lt 1150 0C 7796 50 248 2
2 1150 - 1250 0C 3708 23 3008 19
3 1250 - 1350 0C 2308 15 8232 52
4 1350 - 1450 0C 1917 12 3670 23
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 571 4
Distribution of IWm in Slovenia during 1961 ndash
1990 and existing viticulture areas
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black)
Comparison of IWm areas in Slovenia
1961-1990 1975-2004
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black spots)
The analysis of elevation of existing wine growing regions
bull average elevation shift
for 132 m from
1961-1990 to 1975-2004
bull In recent period the potential viticultural regions possible up
to 700 m asl
zone1961-1990 (m)
1975-2004 (m)
h(m)
1 578 672 +96
2 238 398 +160
3 161 267 +106
4 57 168 +111
5 28
Conclusionsbull Geostatistics can be applied to describe the spatial
variability of meteorological parameters over small regions bull Later varieties could gain on their structure with climate
change because their ripening would be shifted to a more optimal time ie the mid September in Primorska and the beginning of October in Podravje and Posavje
bull The ripening of earlier varieties (Pinot Gris Pinot Noir Chardonnay Pinot Blanc) may shift to the period with relatively high temperatures also over night which makes them less favourable In Primorje region certain adjustments are required
bull Cooler regions should benefit more than warm regions with the ability to shift to a wider range of varieties
bull Some regions near their optimum may no longer be able to produce the same wines without changes in technologies
Winegrowing regions in Slovenia and existing vineyards locations (red) 17000 ha (54000
vines)
Primorje region
Posavje region
Podravjeregion
Method
bull Comparison of baseline period 1961-1990 to 1975- 2004
bull modified Winkler climatic index as climate indice
bull GIS technique (54 stations)
bull Simple analysis do not account for moisture issues respiration effects winter cold extreme weather etc
Geographical Resources Analysis Support System (GRASS) software
bull GRASS is a free software under terms of general public license developed in the Centre for Applied Geographical and Spatial Research at Baylor University
bull There is also an internal computer language that allows user to create new applications and link GRASS to other software packages (eg GSTAT)
bull In this study we developed methodology to plot contours of temperature sums over small regions Thus interpolation using the simple kriging techniques has been performed for each point of the 100 x 100 m grid over Slovenia land below 1000 m asl Estimates have been made for each point of the grid using 55 locations
bull For spatial estimation of the change the integrated geostatistical GRASS functions were used
Data of land use were derived by CORINE land cover and by Ministry of Agriculture Forestry and Food vineyards locations were obtained
Locations of meteorological stations
used in the GIS analysis (54 red dots)
Posavje region
region
The classification of the viticultural climatic regions according Winkler climatic index (Riou 1994)
bull Area I lt 1390 degC Geneve Vienna Geisenheim Dijon Bordeaux bull Area II 1391 to 1670 degC Budapest Napa (USA) Santiago (Chile)bull Area III 1671 to 1950 degC Montepellier (France) Milan bull Area IV 1951 to 2220 degC Venice Mendoza (Argentina) The cape (South Africa)bull Area V gt 2220deg C Split (Croatia) Palermo (Italy) Algiers (Algeria)
October 31
April 1avg 10) - (T IW
Winegrowing regions according to modified
Winkler climatic index (IWm) as used in Slovenia
bull Area I lt 1390 degC
bull Area II 1391 to 1670 degC
Zone 1 lt 1150 degC
Zone 2 1151 to 1250 degC
Zone 3 1251 to 1350 degC
Zone 4 1351 to 1450 degC
Zone 5 gt 1450deg C
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 4
Zone 5
Variety classificationbased on the average growing season temperature
6 world winegrowing regions are marked
Comparison with 3 Slovenian winegrowing regions
An increase in average growing season temperature
144
146
148
150
152
154
156
158
160
162
Posavje Podravje Primorje
Average growing season temperature (degC)
1961-1990
1975-2004
Slovenian land area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
Zone IWm
Area
1961-1990 (ha)
Area
1975-2004(ha)
1 lt 1150 0C 1307071 726 764051 424
2 1150 - 1250 0C 389554 216 392193 218
3 1250 - 1350 0C 76935 43 469105 261
4 1350 - 1450 0C 27039 15 164508 91
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 10685 06
Slovenian viticultural area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
IWm
Area (ha)
1961-1990 Area (ha)
1975-2004
1 lt 1150 0C 7796 50 248 2
2 1150 - 1250 0C 3708 23 3008 19
3 1250 - 1350 0C 2308 15 8232 52
4 1350 - 1450 0C 1917 12 3670 23
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 571 4
Distribution of IWm in Slovenia during 1961 ndash
1990 and existing viticulture areas
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black)
Comparison of IWm areas in Slovenia
1961-1990 1975-2004
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black spots)
The analysis of elevation of existing wine growing regions
bull average elevation shift
for 132 m from
1961-1990 to 1975-2004
bull In recent period the potential viticultural regions possible up
to 700 m asl
zone1961-1990 (m)
1975-2004 (m)
h(m)
1 578 672 +96
2 238 398 +160
3 161 267 +106
4 57 168 +111
5 28
Conclusionsbull Geostatistics can be applied to describe the spatial
variability of meteorological parameters over small regions bull Later varieties could gain on their structure with climate
change because their ripening would be shifted to a more optimal time ie the mid September in Primorska and the beginning of October in Podravje and Posavje
bull The ripening of earlier varieties (Pinot Gris Pinot Noir Chardonnay Pinot Blanc) may shift to the period with relatively high temperatures also over night which makes them less favourable In Primorje region certain adjustments are required
bull Cooler regions should benefit more than warm regions with the ability to shift to a wider range of varieties
bull Some regions near their optimum may no longer be able to produce the same wines without changes in technologies
Method
bull Comparison of baseline period 1961-1990 to 1975- 2004
bull modified Winkler climatic index as climate indice
bull GIS technique (54 stations)
bull Simple analysis do not account for moisture issues respiration effects winter cold extreme weather etc
Geographical Resources Analysis Support System (GRASS) software
bull GRASS is a free software under terms of general public license developed in the Centre for Applied Geographical and Spatial Research at Baylor University
bull There is also an internal computer language that allows user to create new applications and link GRASS to other software packages (eg GSTAT)
bull In this study we developed methodology to plot contours of temperature sums over small regions Thus interpolation using the simple kriging techniques has been performed for each point of the 100 x 100 m grid over Slovenia land below 1000 m asl Estimates have been made for each point of the grid using 55 locations
bull For spatial estimation of the change the integrated geostatistical GRASS functions were used
Data of land use were derived by CORINE land cover and by Ministry of Agriculture Forestry and Food vineyards locations were obtained
Locations of meteorological stations
used in the GIS analysis (54 red dots)
Posavje region
region
The classification of the viticultural climatic regions according Winkler climatic index (Riou 1994)
bull Area I lt 1390 degC Geneve Vienna Geisenheim Dijon Bordeaux bull Area II 1391 to 1670 degC Budapest Napa (USA) Santiago (Chile)bull Area III 1671 to 1950 degC Montepellier (France) Milan bull Area IV 1951 to 2220 degC Venice Mendoza (Argentina) The cape (South Africa)bull Area V gt 2220deg C Split (Croatia) Palermo (Italy) Algiers (Algeria)
October 31
April 1avg 10) - (T IW
Winegrowing regions according to modified
Winkler climatic index (IWm) as used in Slovenia
bull Area I lt 1390 degC
bull Area II 1391 to 1670 degC
Zone 1 lt 1150 degC
Zone 2 1151 to 1250 degC
Zone 3 1251 to 1350 degC
Zone 4 1351 to 1450 degC
Zone 5 gt 1450deg C
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 4
Zone 5
Variety classificationbased on the average growing season temperature
6 world winegrowing regions are marked
Comparison with 3 Slovenian winegrowing regions
An increase in average growing season temperature
144
146
148
150
152
154
156
158
160
162
Posavje Podravje Primorje
Average growing season temperature (degC)
1961-1990
1975-2004
Slovenian land area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
Zone IWm
Area
1961-1990 (ha)
Area
1975-2004(ha)
1 lt 1150 0C 1307071 726 764051 424
2 1150 - 1250 0C 389554 216 392193 218
3 1250 - 1350 0C 76935 43 469105 261
4 1350 - 1450 0C 27039 15 164508 91
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 10685 06
Slovenian viticultural area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
IWm
Area (ha)
1961-1990 Area (ha)
1975-2004
1 lt 1150 0C 7796 50 248 2
2 1150 - 1250 0C 3708 23 3008 19
3 1250 - 1350 0C 2308 15 8232 52
4 1350 - 1450 0C 1917 12 3670 23
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 571 4
Distribution of IWm in Slovenia during 1961 ndash
1990 and existing viticulture areas
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black)
Comparison of IWm areas in Slovenia
1961-1990 1975-2004
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black spots)
The analysis of elevation of existing wine growing regions
bull average elevation shift
for 132 m from
1961-1990 to 1975-2004
bull In recent period the potential viticultural regions possible up
to 700 m asl
zone1961-1990 (m)
1975-2004 (m)
h(m)
1 578 672 +96
2 238 398 +160
3 161 267 +106
4 57 168 +111
5 28
Conclusionsbull Geostatistics can be applied to describe the spatial
variability of meteorological parameters over small regions bull Later varieties could gain on their structure with climate
change because their ripening would be shifted to a more optimal time ie the mid September in Primorska and the beginning of October in Podravje and Posavje
bull The ripening of earlier varieties (Pinot Gris Pinot Noir Chardonnay Pinot Blanc) may shift to the period with relatively high temperatures also over night which makes them less favourable In Primorje region certain adjustments are required
bull Cooler regions should benefit more than warm regions with the ability to shift to a wider range of varieties
bull Some regions near their optimum may no longer be able to produce the same wines without changes in technologies
Geographical Resources Analysis Support System (GRASS) software
bull GRASS is a free software under terms of general public license developed in the Centre for Applied Geographical and Spatial Research at Baylor University
bull There is also an internal computer language that allows user to create new applications and link GRASS to other software packages (eg GSTAT)
bull In this study we developed methodology to plot contours of temperature sums over small regions Thus interpolation using the simple kriging techniques has been performed for each point of the 100 x 100 m grid over Slovenia land below 1000 m asl Estimates have been made for each point of the grid using 55 locations
bull For spatial estimation of the change the integrated geostatistical GRASS functions were used
Data of land use were derived by CORINE land cover and by Ministry of Agriculture Forestry and Food vineyards locations were obtained
Locations of meteorological stations
used in the GIS analysis (54 red dots)
Posavje region
region
The classification of the viticultural climatic regions according Winkler climatic index (Riou 1994)
bull Area I lt 1390 degC Geneve Vienna Geisenheim Dijon Bordeaux bull Area II 1391 to 1670 degC Budapest Napa (USA) Santiago (Chile)bull Area III 1671 to 1950 degC Montepellier (France) Milan bull Area IV 1951 to 2220 degC Venice Mendoza (Argentina) The cape (South Africa)bull Area V gt 2220deg C Split (Croatia) Palermo (Italy) Algiers (Algeria)
October 31
April 1avg 10) - (T IW
Winegrowing regions according to modified
Winkler climatic index (IWm) as used in Slovenia
bull Area I lt 1390 degC
bull Area II 1391 to 1670 degC
Zone 1 lt 1150 degC
Zone 2 1151 to 1250 degC
Zone 3 1251 to 1350 degC
Zone 4 1351 to 1450 degC
Zone 5 gt 1450deg C
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 4
Zone 5
Variety classificationbased on the average growing season temperature
6 world winegrowing regions are marked
Comparison with 3 Slovenian winegrowing regions
An increase in average growing season temperature
144
146
148
150
152
154
156
158
160
162
Posavje Podravje Primorje
Average growing season temperature (degC)
1961-1990
1975-2004
Slovenian land area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
Zone IWm
Area
1961-1990 (ha)
Area
1975-2004(ha)
1 lt 1150 0C 1307071 726 764051 424
2 1150 - 1250 0C 389554 216 392193 218
3 1250 - 1350 0C 76935 43 469105 261
4 1350 - 1450 0C 27039 15 164508 91
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 10685 06
Slovenian viticultural area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
IWm
Area (ha)
1961-1990 Area (ha)
1975-2004
1 lt 1150 0C 7796 50 248 2
2 1150 - 1250 0C 3708 23 3008 19
3 1250 - 1350 0C 2308 15 8232 52
4 1350 - 1450 0C 1917 12 3670 23
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 571 4
Distribution of IWm in Slovenia during 1961 ndash
1990 and existing viticulture areas
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black)
Comparison of IWm areas in Slovenia
1961-1990 1975-2004
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black spots)
The analysis of elevation of existing wine growing regions
bull average elevation shift
for 132 m from
1961-1990 to 1975-2004
bull In recent period the potential viticultural regions possible up
to 700 m asl
zone1961-1990 (m)
1975-2004 (m)
h(m)
1 578 672 +96
2 238 398 +160
3 161 267 +106
4 57 168 +111
5 28
Conclusionsbull Geostatistics can be applied to describe the spatial
variability of meteorological parameters over small regions bull Later varieties could gain on their structure with climate
change because their ripening would be shifted to a more optimal time ie the mid September in Primorska and the beginning of October in Podravje and Posavje
bull The ripening of earlier varieties (Pinot Gris Pinot Noir Chardonnay Pinot Blanc) may shift to the period with relatively high temperatures also over night which makes them less favourable In Primorje region certain adjustments are required
bull Cooler regions should benefit more than warm regions with the ability to shift to a wider range of varieties
bull Some regions near their optimum may no longer be able to produce the same wines without changes in technologies
Data of land use were derived by CORINE land cover and by Ministry of Agriculture Forestry and Food vineyards locations were obtained
Locations of meteorological stations
used in the GIS analysis (54 red dots)
Posavje region
region
The classification of the viticultural climatic regions according Winkler climatic index (Riou 1994)
bull Area I lt 1390 degC Geneve Vienna Geisenheim Dijon Bordeaux bull Area II 1391 to 1670 degC Budapest Napa (USA) Santiago (Chile)bull Area III 1671 to 1950 degC Montepellier (France) Milan bull Area IV 1951 to 2220 degC Venice Mendoza (Argentina) The cape (South Africa)bull Area V gt 2220deg C Split (Croatia) Palermo (Italy) Algiers (Algeria)
October 31
April 1avg 10) - (T IW
Winegrowing regions according to modified
Winkler climatic index (IWm) as used in Slovenia
bull Area I lt 1390 degC
bull Area II 1391 to 1670 degC
Zone 1 lt 1150 degC
Zone 2 1151 to 1250 degC
Zone 3 1251 to 1350 degC
Zone 4 1351 to 1450 degC
Zone 5 gt 1450deg C
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 4
Zone 5
Variety classificationbased on the average growing season temperature
6 world winegrowing regions are marked
Comparison with 3 Slovenian winegrowing regions
An increase in average growing season temperature
144
146
148
150
152
154
156
158
160
162
Posavje Podravje Primorje
Average growing season temperature (degC)
1961-1990
1975-2004
Slovenian land area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
Zone IWm
Area
1961-1990 (ha)
Area
1975-2004(ha)
1 lt 1150 0C 1307071 726 764051 424
2 1150 - 1250 0C 389554 216 392193 218
3 1250 - 1350 0C 76935 43 469105 261
4 1350 - 1450 0C 27039 15 164508 91
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 10685 06
Slovenian viticultural area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
IWm
Area (ha)
1961-1990 Area (ha)
1975-2004
1 lt 1150 0C 7796 50 248 2
2 1150 - 1250 0C 3708 23 3008 19
3 1250 - 1350 0C 2308 15 8232 52
4 1350 - 1450 0C 1917 12 3670 23
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 571 4
Distribution of IWm in Slovenia during 1961 ndash
1990 and existing viticulture areas
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black)
Comparison of IWm areas in Slovenia
1961-1990 1975-2004
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black spots)
The analysis of elevation of existing wine growing regions
bull average elevation shift
for 132 m from
1961-1990 to 1975-2004
bull In recent period the potential viticultural regions possible up
to 700 m asl
zone1961-1990 (m)
1975-2004 (m)
h(m)
1 578 672 +96
2 238 398 +160
3 161 267 +106
4 57 168 +111
5 28
Conclusionsbull Geostatistics can be applied to describe the spatial
variability of meteorological parameters over small regions bull Later varieties could gain on their structure with climate
change because their ripening would be shifted to a more optimal time ie the mid September in Primorska and the beginning of October in Podravje and Posavje
bull The ripening of earlier varieties (Pinot Gris Pinot Noir Chardonnay Pinot Blanc) may shift to the period with relatively high temperatures also over night which makes them less favourable In Primorje region certain adjustments are required
bull Cooler regions should benefit more than warm regions with the ability to shift to a wider range of varieties
bull Some regions near their optimum may no longer be able to produce the same wines without changes in technologies
The classification of the viticultural climatic regions according Winkler climatic index (Riou 1994)
bull Area I lt 1390 degC Geneve Vienna Geisenheim Dijon Bordeaux bull Area II 1391 to 1670 degC Budapest Napa (USA) Santiago (Chile)bull Area III 1671 to 1950 degC Montepellier (France) Milan bull Area IV 1951 to 2220 degC Venice Mendoza (Argentina) The cape (South Africa)bull Area V gt 2220deg C Split (Croatia) Palermo (Italy) Algiers (Algeria)
October 31
April 1avg 10) - (T IW
Winegrowing regions according to modified
Winkler climatic index (IWm) as used in Slovenia
bull Area I lt 1390 degC
bull Area II 1391 to 1670 degC
Zone 1 lt 1150 degC
Zone 2 1151 to 1250 degC
Zone 3 1251 to 1350 degC
Zone 4 1351 to 1450 degC
Zone 5 gt 1450deg C
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 4
Zone 5
Variety classificationbased on the average growing season temperature
6 world winegrowing regions are marked
Comparison with 3 Slovenian winegrowing regions
An increase in average growing season temperature
144
146
148
150
152
154
156
158
160
162
Posavje Podravje Primorje
Average growing season temperature (degC)
1961-1990
1975-2004
Slovenian land area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
Zone IWm
Area
1961-1990 (ha)
Area
1975-2004(ha)
1 lt 1150 0C 1307071 726 764051 424
2 1150 - 1250 0C 389554 216 392193 218
3 1250 - 1350 0C 76935 43 469105 261
4 1350 - 1450 0C 27039 15 164508 91
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 10685 06
Slovenian viticultural area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
IWm
Area (ha)
1961-1990 Area (ha)
1975-2004
1 lt 1150 0C 7796 50 248 2
2 1150 - 1250 0C 3708 23 3008 19
3 1250 - 1350 0C 2308 15 8232 52
4 1350 - 1450 0C 1917 12 3670 23
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 571 4
Distribution of IWm in Slovenia during 1961 ndash
1990 and existing viticulture areas
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black)
Comparison of IWm areas in Slovenia
1961-1990 1975-2004
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black spots)
The analysis of elevation of existing wine growing regions
bull average elevation shift
for 132 m from
1961-1990 to 1975-2004
bull In recent period the potential viticultural regions possible up
to 700 m asl
zone1961-1990 (m)
1975-2004 (m)
h(m)
1 578 672 +96
2 238 398 +160
3 161 267 +106
4 57 168 +111
5 28
Conclusionsbull Geostatistics can be applied to describe the spatial
variability of meteorological parameters over small regions bull Later varieties could gain on their structure with climate
change because their ripening would be shifted to a more optimal time ie the mid September in Primorska and the beginning of October in Podravje and Posavje
bull The ripening of earlier varieties (Pinot Gris Pinot Noir Chardonnay Pinot Blanc) may shift to the period with relatively high temperatures also over night which makes them less favourable In Primorje region certain adjustments are required
bull Cooler regions should benefit more than warm regions with the ability to shift to a wider range of varieties
bull Some regions near their optimum may no longer be able to produce the same wines without changes in technologies
Winegrowing regions according to modified
Winkler climatic index (IWm) as used in Slovenia
bull Area I lt 1390 degC
bull Area II 1391 to 1670 degC
Zone 1 lt 1150 degC
Zone 2 1151 to 1250 degC
Zone 3 1251 to 1350 degC
Zone 4 1351 to 1450 degC
Zone 5 gt 1450deg C
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 4
Zone 5
Variety classificationbased on the average growing season temperature
6 world winegrowing regions are marked
Comparison with 3 Slovenian winegrowing regions
An increase in average growing season temperature
144
146
148
150
152
154
156
158
160
162
Posavje Podravje Primorje
Average growing season temperature (degC)
1961-1990
1975-2004
Slovenian land area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
Zone IWm
Area
1961-1990 (ha)
Area
1975-2004(ha)
1 lt 1150 0C 1307071 726 764051 424
2 1150 - 1250 0C 389554 216 392193 218
3 1250 - 1350 0C 76935 43 469105 261
4 1350 - 1450 0C 27039 15 164508 91
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 10685 06
Slovenian viticultural area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
IWm
Area (ha)
1961-1990 Area (ha)
1975-2004
1 lt 1150 0C 7796 50 248 2
2 1150 - 1250 0C 3708 23 3008 19
3 1250 - 1350 0C 2308 15 8232 52
4 1350 - 1450 0C 1917 12 3670 23
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 571 4
Distribution of IWm in Slovenia during 1961 ndash
1990 and existing viticulture areas
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black)
Comparison of IWm areas in Slovenia
1961-1990 1975-2004
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black spots)
The analysis of elevation of existing wine growing regions
bull average elevation shift
for 132 m from
1961-1990 to 1975-2004
bull In recent period the potential viticultural regions possible up
to 700 m asl
zone1961-1990 (m)
1975-2004 (m)
h(m)
1 578 672 +96
2 238 398 +160
3 161 267 +106
4 57 168 +111
5 28
Conclusionsbull Geostatistics can be applied to describe the spatial
variability of meteorological parameters over small regions bull Later varieties could gain on their structure with climate
change because their ripening would be shifted to a more optimal time ie the mid September in Primorska and the beginning of October in Podravje and Posavje
bull The ripening of earlier varieties (Pinot Gris Pinot Noir Chardonnay Pinot Blanc) may shift to the period with relatively high temperatures also over night which makes them less favourable In Primorje region certain adjustments are required
bull Cooler regions should benefit more than warm regions with the ability to shift to a wider range of varieties
bull Some regions near their optimum may no longer be able to produce the same wines without changes in technologies
Variety classificationbased on the average growing season temperature
6 world winegrowing regions are marked
Comparison with 3 Slovenian winegrowing regions
An increase in average growing season temperature
144
146
148
150
152
154
156
158
160
162
Posavje Podravje Primorje
Average growing season temperature (degC)
1961-1990
1975-2004
Slovenian land area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
Zone IWm
Area
1961-1990 (ha)
Area
1975-2004(ha)
1 lt 1150 0C 1307071 726 764051 424
2 1150 - 1250 0C 389554 216 392193 218
3 1250 - 1350 0C 76935 43 469105 261
4 1350 - 1450 0C 27039 15 164508 91
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 10685 06
Slovenian viticultural area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
IWm
Area (ha)
1961-1990 Area (ha)
1975-2004
1 lt 1150 0C 7796 50 248 2
2 1150 - 1250 0C 3708 23 3008 19
3 1250 - 1350 0C 2308 15 8232 52
4 1350 - 1450 0C 1917 12 3670 23
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 571 4
Distribution of IWm in Slovenia during 1961 ndash
1990 and existing viticulture areas
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black)
Comparison of IWm areas in Slovenia
1961-1990 1975-2004
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black spots)
The analysis of elevation of existing wine growing regions
bull average elevation shift
for 132 m from
1961-1990 to 1975-2004
bull In recent period the potential viticultural regions possible up
to 700 m asl
zone1961-1990 (m)
1975-2004 (m)
h(m)
1 578 672 +96
2 238 398 +160
3 161 267 +106
4 57 168 +111
5 28
Conclusionsbull Geostatistics can be applied to describe the spatial
variability of meteorological parameters over small regions bull Later varieties could gain on their structure with climate
change because their ripening would be shifted to a more optimal time ie the mid September in Primorska and the beginning of October in Podravje and Posavje
bull The ripening of earlier varieties (Pinot Gris Pinot Noir Chardonnay Pinot Blanc) may shift to the period with relatively high temperatures also over night which makes them less favourable In Primorje region certain adjustments are required
bull Cooler regions should benefit more than warm regions with the ability to shift to a wider range of varieties
bull Some regions near their optimum may no longer be able to produce the same wines without changes in technologies
An increase in average growing season temperature
144
146
148
150
152
154
156
158
160
162
Posavje Podravje Primorje
Average growing season temperature (degC)
1961-1990
1975-2004
Slovenian land area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
Zone IWm
Area
1961-1990 (ha)
Area
1975-2004(ha)
1 lt 1150 0C 1307071 726 764051 424
2 1150 - 1250 0C 389554 216 392193 218
3 1250 - 1350 0C 76935 43 469105 261
4 1350 - 1450 0C 27039 15 164508 91
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 10685 06
Slovenian viticultural area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
IWm
Area (ha)
1961-1990 Area (ha)
1975-2004
1 lt 1150 0C 7796 50 248 2
2 1150 - 1250 0C 3708 23 3008 19
3 1250 - 1350 0C 2308 15 8232 52
4 1350 - 1450 0C 1917 12 3670 23
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 571 4
Distribution of IWm in Slovenia during 1961 ndash
1990 and existing viticulture areas
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black)
Comparison of IWm areas in Slovenia
1961-1990 1975-2004
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black spots)
The analysis of elevation of existing wine growing regions
bull average elevation shift
for 132 m from
1961-1990 to 1975-2004
bull In recent period the potential viticultural regions possible up
to 700 m asl
zone1961-1990 (m)
1975-2004 (m)
h(m)
1 578 672 +96
2 238 398 +160
3 161 267 +106
4 57 168 +111
5 28
Conclusionsbull Geostatistics can be applied to describe the spatial
variability of meteorological parameters over small regions bull Later varieties could gain on their structure with climate
change because their ripening would be shifted to a more optimal time ie the mid September in Primorska and the beginning of October in Podravje and Posavje
bull The ripening of earlier varieties (Pinot Gris Pinot Noir Chardonnay Pinot Blanc) may shift to the period with relatively high temperatures also over night which makes them less favourable In Primorje region certain adjustments are required
bull Cooler regions should benefit more than warm regions with the ability to shift to a wider range of varieties
bull Some regions near their optimum may no longer be able to produce the same wines without changes in technologies
Slovenian land area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
Zone IWm
Area
1961-1990 (ha)
Area
1975-2004(ha)
1 lt 1150 0C 1307071 726 764051 424
2 1150 - 1250 0C 389554 216 392193 218
3 1250 - 1350 0C 76935 43 469105 261
4 1350 - 1450 0C 27039 15 164508 91
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 10685 06
Slovenian viticultural area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
IWm
Area (ha)
1961-1990 Area (ha)
1975-2004
1 lt 1150 0C 7796 50 248 2
2 1150 - 1250 0C 3708 23 3008 19
3 1250 - 1350 0C 2308 15 8232 52
4 1350 - 1450 0C 1917 12 3670 23
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 571 4
Distribution of IWm in Slovenia during 1961 ndash
1990 and existing viticulture areas
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black)
Comparison of IWm areas in Slovenia
1961-1990 1975-2004
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black spots)
The analysis of elevation of existing wine growing regions
bull average elevation shift
for 132 m from
1961-1990 to 1975-2004
bull In recent period the potential viticultural regions possible up
to 700 m asl
zone1961-1990 (m)
1975-2004 (m)
h(m)
1 578 672 +96
2 238 398 +160
3 161 267 +106
4 57 168 +111
5 28
Conclusionsbull Geostatistics can be applied to describe the spatial
variability of meteorological parameters over small regions bull Later varieties could gain on their structure with climate
change because their ripening would be shifted to a more optimal time ie the mid September in Primorska and the beginning of October in Podravje and Posavje
bull The ripening of earlier varieties (Pinot Gris Pinot Noir Chardonnay Pinot Blanc) may shift to the period with relatively high temperatures also over night which makes them less favourable In Primorje region certain adjustments are required
bull Cooler regions should benefit more than warm regions with the ability to shift to a wider range of varieties
bull Some regions near their optimum may no longer be able to produce the same wines without changes in technologies
Slovenian viticultural area during 1961-1990 and 1975-2004 regarding to IWm
IWm
Area (ha)
1961-1990 Area (ha)
1975-2004
1 lt 1150 0C 7796 50 248 2
2 1150 - 1250 0C 3708 23 3008 19
3 1250 - 1350 0C 2308 15 8232 52
4 1350 - 1450 0C 1917 12 3670 23
5 gt 1450 0C 0 0 571 4
Distribution of IWm in Slovenia during 1961 ndash
1990 and existing viticulture areas
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black)
Comparison of IWm areas in Slovenia
1961-1990 1975-2004
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black spots)
The analysis of elevation of existing wine growing regions
bull average elevation shift
for 132 m from
1961-1990 to 1975-2004
bull In recent period the potential viticultural regions possible up
to 700 m asl
zone1961-1990 (m)
1975-2004 (m)
h(m)
1 578 672 +96
2 238 398 +160
3 161 267 +106
4 57 168 +111
5 28
Conclusionsbull Geostatistics can be applied to describe the spatial
variability of meteorological parameters over small regions bull Later varieties could gain on their structure with climate
change because their ripening would be shifted to a more optimal time ie the mid September in Primorska and the beginning of October in Podravje and Posavje
bull The ripening of earlier varieties (Pinot Gris Pinot Noir Chardonnay Pinot Blanc) may shift to the period with relatively high temperatures also over night which makes them less favourable In Primorje region certain adjustments are required
bull Cooler regions should benefit more than warm regions with the ability to shift to a wider range of varieties
bull Some regions near their optimum may no longer be able to produce the same wines without changes in technologies
Distribution of IWm in Slovenia during 1961 ndash
1990 and existing viticulture areas
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black)
Comparison of IWm areas in Slovenia
1961-1990 1975-2004
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black spots)
The analysis of elevation of existing wine growing regions
bull average elevation shift
for 132 m from
1961-1990 to 1975-2004
bull In recent period the potential viticultural regions possible up
to 700 m asl
zone1961-1990 (m)
1975-2004 (m)
h(m)
1 578 672 +96
2 238 398 +160
3 161 267 +106
4 57 168 +111
5 28
Conclusionsbull Geostatistics can be applied to describe the spatial
variability of meteorological parameters over small regions bull Later varieties could gain on their structure with climate
change because their ripening would be shifted to a more optimal time ie the mid September in Primorska and the beginning of October in Podravje and Posavje
bull The ripening of earlier varieties (Pinot Gris Pinot Noir Chardonnay Pinot Blanc) may shift to the period with relatively high temperatures also over night which makes them less favourable In Primorje region certain adjustments are required
bull Cooler regions should benefit more than warm regions with the ability to shift to a wider range of varieties
bull Some regions near their optimum may no longer be able to produce the same wines without changes in technologies
Comparison of IWm areas in Slovenia
1961-1990 1975-2004
existing vineyards locations in Slovenia (black spots)
The analysis of elevation of existing wine growing regions
bull average elevation shift
for 132 m from
1961-1990 to 1975-2004
bull In recent period the potential viticultural regions possible up
to 700 m asl
zone1961-1990 (m)
1975-2004 (m)
h(m)
1 578 672 +96
2 238 398 +160
3 161 267 +106
4 57 168 +111
5 28
Conclusionsbull Geostatistics can be applied to describe the spatial
variability of meteorological parameters over small regions bull Later varieties could gain on their structure with climate
change because their ripening would be shifted to a more optimal time ie the mid September in Primorska and the beginning of October in Podravje and Posavje
bull The ripening of earlier varieties (Pinot Gris Pinot Noir Chardonnay Pinot Blanc) may shift to the period with relatively high temperatures also over night which makes them less favourable In Primorje region certain adjustments are required
bull Cooler regions should benefit more than warm regions with the ability to shift to a wider range of varieties
bull Some regions near their optimum may no longer be able to produce the same wines without changes in technologies
The analysis of elevation of existing wine growing regions
bull average elevation shift
for 132 m from
1961-1990 to 1975-2004
bull In recent period the potential viticultural regions possible up
to 700 m asl
zone1961-1990 (m)
1975-2004 (m)
h(m)
1 578 672 +96
2 238 398 +160
3 161 267 +106
4 57 168 +111
5 28
Conclusionsbull Geostatistics can be applied to describe the spatial
variability of meteorological parameters over small regions bull Later varieties could gain on their structure with climate
change because their ripening would be shifted to a more optimal time ie the mid September in Primorska and the beginning of October in Podravje and Posavje
bull The ripening of earlier varieties (Pinot Gris Pinot Noir Chardonnay Pinot Blanc) may shift to the period with relatively high temperatures also over night which makes them less favourable In Primorje region certain adjustments are required
bull Cooler regions should benefit more than warm regions with the ability to shift to a wider range of varieties
bull Some regions near their optimum may no longer be able to produce the same wines without changes in technologies
Conclusionsbull Geostatistics can be applied to describe the spatial
variability of meteorological parameters over small regions bull Later varieties could gain on their structure with climate
change because their ripening would be shifted to a more optimal time ie the mid September in Primorska and the beginning of October in Podravje and Posavje
bull The ripening of earlier varieties (Pinot Gris Pinot Noir Chardonnay Pinot Blanc) may shift to the period with relatively high temperatures also over night which makes them less favourable In Primorje region certain adjustments are required
bull Cooler regions should benefit more than warm regions with the ability to shift to a wider range of varieties
bull Some regions near their optimum may no longer be able to produce the same wines without changes in technologies
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