Get Out the Vote: Campaign Strategy. Two more points about turnout! 1.What predicts variation in...

Get Out the Vote:Campaign Strategy

Two more points about turnout!

1. What predicts variation in turnout from election to election in the US?

2. What predicts cross-national variation in turnout?

In any given election, why might more people turn out?

• High media coverage

• Significant office

• Important issues

• Attractive candidates

• Competitive race

Why Americans Don’t Vote(compared to people in other democracies)

• Alienation?

Is trust the explanation?

Country Percent turnout

Percent saying they trust the government

USA 52.8 34%

France 66.2 33%

Italy 90.5* 14%

Belgium 93.4* 20%

Austria 90.5 55%

Responses to surveys about trust in government, voters & nonvoters

% of respondents who vote

% of respondents who don’t vote

You can trust the government to do what’s right most or all of the time

59 41

You can only trust the government to do what’s right some or none of the time

61 39

Why Americans Don’t Vote

• Alienation? (No)

• More frequent elections

Voter turnout, presidential and midterm elections 1960-1998

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996

Why Americans Don’t Vote

• Alienation? (No)

• More frequent elections

• Registration laws

How can parties, groups, and candidate campaigns encourage

people to vote who might not otherwise vote?

Green and Gerber

• Methods?

• Experimental design: random assignment

• Door to door canvassing

• Weekend days, 4 weeks before election

• Paid canvassers, different races

Green and Gerber’s methods

• Random assignment experiments• CT congressional and state elections 1998• New Jersey State Assembly Race 1999• CT Mayoral Campaign 1999• Multi city presidential election study 2000• Multi city local elections 2001

Green and Gerber

• Methods?

• Benefits of experimental design?

• Controls for other individual characteristics

• Can tell whether treatment itself has an effect!

Green and Gerber

• Methods?

• Benefits of experimental design?

• How did they try to motivate people?

Appeals:

P(V) = PB + D – C

• By voting, you provide evidence that your neighborhood is politically active, which will increase its political clout. (neighborhood solidarity)

• Voting is your civic duty• The election is close, and there is a chance your

vote might make the difference.• There is an election coming…

Green and Gerber: Findings

• Nonpartisans more affected by treatment

Green and Gerber’s methods

Mail

Phone

Door to door canvassing

Green and Gerber’s methods

Mail up to .6% effect

Phone

Door to door canvassing

Green and Gerber’s methods

Mail up to .6% effect

Phone 1-3% effect

Door to door canvassing

Green and Gerber’s methods

Mail up to .6% effect

Phone 1-3% effect

Door to door canvassing

8-12% effect + spillover

Green and Gerber

• Is it an efficient way to increase turnout?

$10/hour, 10 contacts an hour, 6% return

$16 per new voter?

Real World Implications

• The Bush Campaign: Amway model

• America Coming Together

Republicans can do social science?

• Karl Rove’s 72 hour Task Force– 2000 analysis– 2001 experiment– 2002 successes– 2004 Ohio

What could you do to increase turnout?

• Through public policy?

• For a particular candidate?

How to increase turnout

• Face to face contacts

• Focus on irregular voters

• Make them feel their vote makes a difference (down-ballot???)

• Emphasize community solidarity

• Provide them with polling place information

Suppressing turnout

• What could you do to keep people from coming to the polls?

• Public policy?

• Campaign strategy?