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German Aerospace Center – Institute of Transport Research, Berlin-Adlershof
Les “mobiles” – vont-ils changer notre mobilité?
Prof. Dr. Barbara Lenz
Centre Allemand de l’ Aérospace (DLR) – Institut de Recherche en Transport Berlin-Adlershofhttp://ivf.dlr.de
Séminaire du GRT, Namur18 Avril 2005
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
The „Dream of ICT Use“
- having more time
- living in nice places ….. but : not being separated from the world !
NEGROPONTE 1995:
“In the digital life, it is not important to be in a certain place at a certain time, because places will be ‘transferable’.”
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
What are the consequences of anytime - anywhere?
multiplication of working places
fragmentation of working times
independence from time regulations
increased options for the performance of activities
decreased correlation between place or time and activity
increased use of ICT and transportation [technologies]
... and what makes this worth mentioning?
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
The history of time use: Time as a circle and a sequence of “events”
time as a circle of repeated events
– flood of the Nile river
– seasons
– rebirth
time as a sequence of unique events with a beginning and an end
– history
– life and death
– the universe
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
The history of time use: The organization of work as a pulse generator
1913:
introduction ofthe assembly linein the FORD car factory
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
The definite use of places: “Tell me where you are and I tell you what you do”
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
Impact of communication evolution on travel behaviour – working people
Hypothesis
If ICT had an impact on the work related behaviour of people, the following characteristics should show up:
concerning the activity “work”
- flexible working time, e.g. professional work on week-ends or while traveling
- different working places, e.g. home, train, airplane
concerning work related travel behaviour
- intensive use of ICT
- frequent traveling
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
panel survey
use of an existing panel of the marketresearch institute TNS Emnid
written survey
Five thematic fields: communication, mobility, work, shopping, leisure
sample size: 3,500 people
data collection: May and June 2003
representative for all German-speaking residents of the Federal Republic of Germany aged 14 and up ( -> 64.1 million people)
results of extensive basic questionnaire
Empirical work: used data
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
Methodological Approach
Total: n=3,500
Employed personsn=1,612
Data setGENERAL IDEA
Signs of impact of ICT use on activities
ACTIVITY “WORK”
Work offers particular opportunities to use “new” times and places
ANALYSIS
Search for structures within the data that indicate “new”
behavior for the activity workCluster analysis
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
Result of data clustering: Behavioral types
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
45,0
50,0
Index: tripsto workplace
Index:business
trips
Workinghours per
week (total)
Weeklyworkinghours at
home
Usageindex:
Internet
Usageindex:Mobilephone
Usageindex:Laptop
Cluster 1
Cluster 2
Cluster 3
Cluster 4
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
Cluster 1: „Conventional Full Time Workers“ (n = 821)
Cluster 2: „Mobile Phone Fragmenters“ (n = 264)
Cluster 3: „Conventional Part Time Workers“ (n = 266)
Cluster 4: „Mobile Computer Fragmenters“ (n = 62)
Characteristics of clusters
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
Characteristics of clusters
Cluster 1: „Conventional Full Time Workers“ (n = 821) 59.1
Cluster 2: „Mobile Phone Fragmenters“ (n = 264) 75.5
Cluster 3: „Conventional Part Time Workers“ (n = 266) 15.0
Cluster 4: „Mobile Computer Fragmenters“ (n = 62) 82.0
Share of men
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
Characteristics of clusters
Cluster 1: „Conventional Full Time Workers“ (n = 821) 8.72
Cluster 2: „Mobile Phone Fragmenters“ (n = 264) 8.96
Cluster 3: „Conventional Part Time Workers“ (n = 266) 8.73
Cluster 4: „Mobile Computer Fragmenters“ (n = 62) 10.73
Education
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
Characteristics of clusters
Cluster 1: „Conventional Full Time Workers“ (n = 821) 8.72
Cluster 2: „Mobile Phone Fragmenters“ (n = 264) 8.96
Cluster 3: „Conventional Part Time Workers“ (n = 266) 8.73
Cluster 4: „Mobile Computer Fragmenters“ (n = 62) 10.73
Household income
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
Particular ways to perform activities
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
working at home use laptop on travels use mobile phone on travels
Cluster 1
Cluster 2
Cluster 3
Cluster 4
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
Time windows used for the performance
of activities
Largest time windows have appeared for Cluster 4 for work.
For leisure, too, Cluster 4 is the cluster with the largest time windows for “urban” activities and location independent sports activities.
but: large time windows without ICT use
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
visitin
g fri
ends
visitin
g re
lative
s
resta
uran
t/ pu
b
cinem
a/ th
eatre
takin
g a
walk
mak
ing a
trip
spor
t - lo
catio
n lin
ked
spor
t - lo
catio
n ind
epen
dent
Cluster 1
Cluster 2
Cluster 3
Cluster 4
leisure activities
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
-2,00
-1,50
-1,00
-0,50
0,00
0,50
Cluster 1
Cluster 2
Cluster 3
Cluster 4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0,00
Self-estimation of behavioral changes: mobile phone
Since I have a mobile phone ...
1 I carry out many things while traveling.
5 I am much more on the road because one can reach me anywhere.
7 I am more relaxed concerning appointments as I can let people know in case I am getting late.
Disagreement is predominating.
Working behaviour has changed, but travel behaviour has not.
Being in time for appointments represents still a social norm even for clusters 2 and 4.
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
-1,40
-1,20
-1,00
-0,80
-0,60
-0,40
-0,20
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
Cluster 1
Cluster 2
Cluster 3
Cluster 4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0,00
Self-estimation of behavioral changes: use of the Internet
1 The Internet allows me to be more flexible so that I can do things at any time of the day.
2 I try to complete as many things as possible via Internet to save time.
6 The Internet helps me to carry out things much faster than I could do before .
8 I do several things deliberately via Internet to save travel.
9 Today, my days are more filled up than they were 5 years ago.
Only cluster 4 confirms behavioural change.
Internet is not used to save time, but it saves time “automatically”.
Only cluster 4 uses the Internet deliberately to save travel..
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
-2,00
-1,50
-1,00
-0,50
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
F 29_1 F 29_2 F 29_3 F 29_4 F 29_5 F 29_6 Cluster 1
Cluster 2
Cluster 3
Cluster 4
Self-estimation of behavioral changes: use of the Internet for work
1 When there is a lot of work I take some of it to my home.
2 Also when I did not yet have a computer, I worked at home.
3 Since I have owned a computer, I work at home more often .
4 Sometimes, I take work home because I prefer to work at home.
5 If I work at home, it is important for me to have Internet connection.
6 I can do my work only at my regular physical working place.
For all clusters Internet use continues existing routines .
The use of the option to work elsewhere than at the “regular” working place is only [very slightly!] used by cluster 4. It relies on Internet availability and reduced physical constraints.
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
Young people travelling and using ICT
textextext
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
Some General Trends concerning Travel and ICT Use
changes in young people‘s travel behaviour in Germany :
– increasing use of the car as passenger and/or as driver (SCHOLL 2003)
– decreasing age for acquiring the driver‘s licence (HEYNE 2003)
– mobility becoming a crucial lifestyle element (KEMMING 2003)
development of ICT use – in particular Internet and mobile phone:
– rapid increase of Internet use: 87% of 14-19, 83% of 20-29 (DZFA 4/2004)
– rapid increase in mobile phone availability: 80% of teens own a mobile phone, for more than 90% a mobile phone is available (SHELL 2002)
– communication is the outstanding objective for Internet and mobile phone use (JIM 2003, TULLY 2003)
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
How to Identify Impact of ICT on Travel Behaviour?
(1) How can ICT use affect travel behaviour?
– by modifying the way people travel
– by modifying the way how activities are performed
– by modifying the way how activities are planned and organised
(2) Which effects occur specifically for young people?
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
The Identification Process of the Potential Impact of ICT on Travel Behaviour
purposes of ICT use
[potential] modifica-tion of performance of activities
[potential] modifica-tion of organsiation of activities
[potential] modification of the travel behaviour related to the relevant activities
ICT use activities travel behaviour
activities carried out
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
The Data Set
– DLR survey carried out by TNS Emnid
– May 12 – June 3, 2003
– 3.500 respondents out of a panel population provided by TNS Emnid
– respondents of an age of 14+
– by measure of age and gender structure of the data set, the data are representative for the German speaking population of 14+ (= 64,1 mill.)
age structure of the sample:14-17 years …..….. 14918-25 years …..….. 33426-34 years …..….. 50335-44 years …..….. 62945-54 years …..….. 61855-64 years …..….. 52265 years or more .. 745
13.8%
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
The Purposes of ICT Use: Internet Use
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
14-25 26-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
age
fre
qu
en
cy
ind
ex
job/education related search for information
private search for information
sending/receiving e-mails
sending SMS
online shopping
online banking
chatting
playing games
surfing without particular motive
software download
organisation of private appointments
organisation of job related appointments
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
Particular Purposes of Internet Use
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
14-25 26-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
age
fre
qu
en
cy
ind
ex
online shopping
online banking
organisation of private appointments
organisation of job related appointments
sending/receiving e-mails
sending SMS
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
The Purposes of ICT Use: Mobile Phone Use
0
5
10
15
20
25
14-17 18-25 26-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
age
fre
qu
en
cy
ind
ex
telephone shopping
telephone banking
organisation of private appointments
organisation of job related appointments
sending/receiving e-mails
sending SMS
playing games
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
Activity Patterns
only
activ
ities w
ith a
frequency
index
> 2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
14-17 18-25 26-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
age
fre
qu
en
cy
ind
ex
working/attending school shopping meeting friends meeting relatives
going to a bar/a restaurant going out for a walk exercising sports going to church
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
Modification of Activities by Internet Use: Self Estimation of Respondents
applies entirely
applies more or less
does not apply at all
tends not to apply
applies two ways
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
14-17 18-25 26-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
age
The internet allows me to be more flexible so that I can do things at other times of day.
I try to complete as many things as possible via internet to save time.
Today I often substitute phone calls by e-mails.
Today I complete a few things that formerly needed to move from home via internet.
I do several things deliberately via internet to save travel.
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
Modification of Activities by Mobile Phone Use: Self Estimation of Respondents
applies entirely
applies more or less
does not apply at all
tends not to apply
applies two ways
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
14-17 18-25 26-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
age
… I complete many things while I am on the road.
… I meet friends more spontaneously.
... I am much more on the road because one can reach me anywhere.
... I change appointments more often.
… I am more relaxed concerning appointments as I can give an information in case I am late.
... I do not need to fix the time and place for appointments when they are made but decide on that later.
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
Affinity to Transport Modes I like it very much
I don‘t like it at all -2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
14-25 26-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
age
car
bicycle
public transport
on foot
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
Activity Specific Car Use
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
14-17 18-25 26-35 36-45 46-55 56-65 >65
age
pe
rce
nt
working
shopping in city center
meeting friends
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
Influencing Variables on Mobile Phone Use by Age Groups
14-29 30-49 50-69Beta Sig Beta Sig Beta Sig
gender (0=female, 1=male) -0,006 0,874 0,066 0,024 * 0,126 0,000 ***age -0,226 0,000 *** -0,181 0,000 *** -0,065 0,080level of formal education 0,028 0,503 0,036 0,218 0,018 0,563household size -0,088 0,170 0,066 0,131 -0,036 0,358household income 0,023 0,645 0,049 0,154 0,040 0,285size of home city 0,098 0,015 * 0,090 0,002 ** 0,051 0,089employment (1=employed, 2=not employed) 0,060 0,242 0,001 0,970 0,081 0,031 *mobility (frequency index) 0,198 0,000 *** 0,217 0,000 *** 0,154 0,000 ***
GRT Namur, 18/4/2005
Conclusions
How does ICT use affect travel behaviour of young people?
– by modifying the way people travel
a tendency towards an increasing car use because of more flexibility can be assumed but not be proofed by the data
– by modifying the activities that make people travel
effects remain on a low level
– by modifying the way how activities are performed
the organisation of activities is modified in particular by the use of the mobile phone; the majority of young people in Germany, however, do not estimate that their travel behaviour has changed substantially
The scale of ICT use is much larger for young people, but its relationship to mobility is almost the same throughout the investigated age groups.
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