Gaming the Forecast

© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010

Gaming the ForecastLeveraging Collective Intelligence for Real-Time, Accurate Forecasts

FEI IT, SeattleMarch 4, 2010

Mat Fogarty, CEOCrowdcast

© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010

Speaker Background

• London School of Economics, Management Science• Unilever, Finance Manager, CIMA• UC Berkeley, MBA• Electronic Arts, Director of FP&A• Founded Crowdcast in 2007• San Francisco, Venture backed

© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010

Crowd Forecast = Crowdcast• Forecasts are often subject to

bias, stickiness and gaming • Crowdcast leverages wisdom of

employee and partner crowd• Based on a prediction market• Produces unbiased, real time

forecasts of key metrics• Valuable for new products, key

projects, and external metrics

© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010

Costs of Poor Forecasts

© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010

What is a Prediction Market?• Based on stock market or

betting market• Aggregates knowledge of

diverse group• Players weight forecasts• Rewarded for early, accurate

predictions• Anonymous and meritocratic• Accurate players given more

weight over time

© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010

Actionable Intelligence

Intelligence Insight Action

Crowdcast Platform

© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010

Actionable Intelligence

Intelligence Insight Action

Crowdcast Platform

When will new product ship?

© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010

Actionable Intelligence

Intelligence Insight Action

Crowdcast Platform

When will new product ship?

“Supplier problems”

50% chance late

© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010

Actionable Intelligence

Intelligence Insight Action

Crowdcast Platform

When will new product ship?

“Supplier problems”

50% chance late

Change Supplier

© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010

Actionable Intelligence

Intelligence Insight Action

Crowdcast Platform

When will new product ship? “New

supplier rocks”

10% chance late

Change Supplier

© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010

Examples of Forecasts

New Products

Project Management

• When will the next milestone be complete?• How much will the project cost?• Will the project achieve its stated goal?

Industry Intelligence

• Will a regulation pass?• What will our market share be?• Will our competitor launch a competing product?

• When will the product launch?• What will be the product’s quality score?• Sales units in first 90 days?• Sales at $39 vs Sales at $49?

© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010

Use cases• 400 employees forecasting success of game

projects, 32% more accurate than official

• Panel of scientists and doctors predicting FDA decisions & sales, more accurate 86% of time

• Diverse team forecasting tech trends, demand, competitor actions and regulatory changes

• Employees and customer community forecasting success of new products

© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010

SCREENSHOTS

© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010

• Employee scans available forecasts and chooses one where he has special knowledge

•When will the Beta of the Tablet Computer launch?

Player – Select Question

© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010

• Employee chooses a range of likely outcomes •Weights forecasts with

virtual money• If correct, the bet will

payoff•All input is anonymous

Player – Enter Bet

© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010

•Why does the employee think this?•What is the underlying

reason and assumptions?

Player – Add Comments

© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010

• Leaderboard shows how accurate the players are, also which department is more accurate•Competition, bonuses and other

incentives encourage participation and accuracy

Player – Leaderboard

© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010

•How does the Crowdcast compare to the target?• Early warning of issues

Manager – Forecast Analytics

© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010

•Understand most likely outcome• Spread indicates range of

outcomes for analysis of risk

•Which teams are more optimistic / pessimistic about the metric

Manager – Forecast Analytics

© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010

•How has the forecast changed through time

© Crowdcast, Inc. 2010

Complete solution

Software Services• Secure hosing• Market design• Training, deployment• User engagement strategy• Custom report and analytics