Futures Thinking and Scenario Planning-p

Futures Thinking and

Scenario Planning

Dr. Jay van Zyl

@jayvanzyl

01 Megawaves Waves of change

02 Reframing Shape your thinking

03 Scale of Scope Shape your focus

04 Human mash-ups under emergence

“When the dominating ideas and the action consequences of them

are not in phase

with an evolving external contextual logic

management has failed

at its core process.”

- Richard Normann

01 Megawaves Waves of change

02 Reframing Shape your thinking

03 Scale of Scope Shape your focus

04 Human mash-ups under emergence

Information and crowds ...and then it all changed!

Invention and Humans

01 Megawaves Waves of change

02 Reframing Shape your thinking

03 Scale of Scope Shape your focus

04 Human mash-ups under emergence

Information transformation era’s

Metaphor and Myth

There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their

home. - Ken Olson, president,

Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977

I see no advantage whatsoever to the graphical user interface.

- Bill Gates, 1983

I see little commercial potential for the Internet for at least 10

years. - Bill Gates, Comdex, 1994

"A revolution doesn't happen when society adopts new tools, it happens when society adopts

new behaviours." - Clay Shirky

Uber’s logic of innovation

This is how eager Uber is to grow. It will do anything and partner with anyone as long as it pulls in new users, no matter how high they are. WeedMaps…

This is how eager Uber is to grow. It will do anything and partner with anyone as long as it pulls in new users, no matter how high they are. WeedMaps…

we are recording all the rituals and behaviors in which individuals and groups in society

participate

Probabilistic Prediction

•  Restaurants •  Nightlife •  Hotels •  Shopping •  Museums •  Health •  Money

01 Megawaves Waves of change

02 Reframing Shape your thinking

03 Scale of Scope Shape your focus

04 Human mash-ups under emergence

Scenarios in action

Volume of ideas developed through stages

One great idea gets developed

recommendation is a suggestion as to the best cause of

action

Know Yourself Live better

UP is a system that tracks how you sleep, move and eat, then provides insights that help you make decisions to feel your best.

gamification is a fun way to make suggestions as to the best

cause of action

ecosystem is changing with services

PayPal nearly half of eBay's total revenue, mobile payment

transactions $750 million in 2010 and $27 billion in 2013

Google’s HCE (host card emulation),

embedding into its new Android operating system dubbed KitKat

Facebook allows transactions and

potentially money transfers between friends

6 million weekly transactions during the

second quarter

70% growth year-on-year

increase of 500,000 per week in total transactions over the three months prior

launched mobile app in 2009,

by 2013, 11% of in-store transactions were paid via mobile device

ecosystem is changing with products

51,000 patents owned by Google

Google inventors - among them founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page - are now winning 10 patents every day the patent office is open, covering everything from automated cars to balloon-based data networks. For comparison, consider that in all of 2003, Google was awarded four patents. …1800 patents in 2013 Typical smartphone can be covered by as many as 250,000 patents

Google spent $12.5 billion to buy Motorola Mobility, mostly to grab its trove of 17,000 patents and 7,000 patent applications. Google purchased more than a thousand patents from IBM and picked up others from telephone companies and auto parts makers. Google now controls more than 51,000 patents and patents pending.

Amazon’s Method and system for placing a purchase order via a communications network

Amazon’s Recommendation system

Apple’s Graphical user interface patents

Apple’s mobile data patents

AT&T’s patent/s on location based services

Vodafone’s Mobile money transfer patent

Google’s Transportation-aware Advertising

Find Google in 2011…

01 Megawaves Waves of change

02 Reframing Shape your thinking

03 Scale of Scope Shape your focus

04 Human mash-ups under emergence

Digital banking playground is small

Simplify core banking and focus on value-added services

Developing markets go straight to social

innovation relevance

THE SCALE

Calculating Incremental changes to existing structures

mean risk can be calculated

Game Changing High attention due to

it’s radical nature requiring full

commitment in operations and

investment

Minivating Safe innovations, with

only incremental benefit and low risk

Testing Low investment

requirements give it the ‘why not’ factor

Incremental Radical

Low

H

igh

DISRUPTION The disruption dimension takes into account how easily the idea fits in to existing methods and structures. Truly innovative ideas will likely be radical in nature, representing shifts in common practice.

The scale has been calculated as a 4-quadrant model, with each of the quadrants representing different types of innovations or inventions…

INVESTMENT This dimension takes into account investment of capital, as well as energy through change management and culture change.

THE ATTENTION SEEKERS

Calculating Incremental changes to existing structures mean investment risk

can be calculated

Game Changing High attention due to

it’s radical nature requiring full

commitment in operations and

investment

Minivating Safe innovations, with

only incremental benefit and low risk

Testing Low investment

requirements give it the ‘why not’ factor

Ideas falling within this quadrant are likely to attract the most significant amount of attention. They will propose radical changes in the way things are done, and large investment requirements will also ensure the right level of investor interest.

These ideas will also attract a fair amount of interest. Mainly due to their novelty, disrupting current practices, yet with fairly low investment requirements making them accessible and more easily justified.

THE CAUTIONARY APPROACHES

Calculated innovations, are those that offer low disruption to existing practices, yet have fairly high investment requirements. These are seen as reasonable to attempt and calculate from a risk and ROI perspective, yet will not change the game significantly.

More improvements than novel ideas, ‘mini-innovations’ are seen as easy and cheap to implement, creating incremental benefit. These will not disrupt the industry, and are unlikely to receive a large amount of attention.

Game Changing High attention due to

it’s radical nature requiring full

commitment in operations and

investment

Testing Low investment

requirements give it the ‘why not’ factor

Calculating Incremental changes to existing structures

mean risk can be calculated

Minivating Safe innovations, with

only incremental benefit and low risk

CROWD-SOURCING FINTECH

02 IN

VE

STM

EN

T O

F IN

NO

VATI

ON

03 DISRUPTION OF INNOVATION

OUR CROWD-SOURCED VIEW

In total, our members rated 39 of the presenting companies along all three dimensions. We find that the majority of companies had a fairly neutral impact on members across all dimensions, however a few key outliers surfaced too.

Note: ideas that are not plotted along the ‘Disruption’ axis were not fully rated my members