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November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Future Vehicle Technology
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Jim Kenzie
Chief Auto Reviewer, Toronto Star “Wheels” section
commentator, TSN’s Motoring 2015 TV show - 27 years!!
freelance writer, broadcaster
unrepentant car enthusiast
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Overview:
materials and structure
engines and fuel sources
transmissions
in-car entertainment, navigation, communication systems –“telematics”
traffic management systems
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
“Popular Screwdriver…”
does this look like YOUR commute?
what THEY thought the future would hold…
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
First modern car…
1900 Mercedes
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
First modern car…
body-on-frame construction
front engine
rear-drive
gate-type transmission
live-axle suspension
honeycomb water radiator
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Nothing new under the sun!
cars didn’t change all that much from the 1900s to the 1960s
a mechanic transported back in time would be able to fix old cars
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Consumers unite!
agitation for:
more safety
better fuel economy
reduced environmental impact
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Cars get complicated…
fuel injection
electronic control
safety belts and air bags
cars with computers to…
…computers with wheels…
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Your car is…
the most technologically advanced product you own…
designed and built using the highest technology…
the car industry is not a
“smokestack” industry…
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Is THIS the future?
General Motors’ Ultralite
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Carbon Fibre advantages
stronger than steel
lighter than aluminum
simple to design - just six pieces
no painting!
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Carbon Fibre advantages
durable
easy to repair
fast tooling
critical marketing advantage
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Carbon Fibre advantages
carbon-fibre expensive, but only as “black steel”
low overhead
first steel car costs $2 billion
2nd through 800,000th cost a handful of dollars
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Carbon Fibre advantages
lower economies of scale
decentralised manufacture
no high-volume car maker has given it a chance
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Short-term progress:
Audi A8, Acura NSX, Rolls-Royce Phantom, Jaguar XJ and XK – aluminum
General Motors and others –magnesium components
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Short-term progress:
Carbon fibre:
McLaren 12C, now 650S
Alfa Romeo 4C
BMW i3
Lamborghini
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Short-term progress:
must design around properties of new materials
impact on body repair industry
smaller engines
synergy
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Who will do it?
maybe NOT a car company…
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Power sources
fossil fuels are finite
HOW finite, we don’t know...
God isn’t making any more dinosaurs…
…except SUVs…
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
What if we had a fuel that was…
infinite…
pollution-free…
widely-available…
potentially cheap…
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Because we do have such a fuel:
it’s called:
HYDROGEN!!!
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Hydrogen:
solar-powered catalytic crackers to turn sea water into hydrogen and oxygen
burn hydrogen, and you get –WATER!
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Hydrogen downsides:
expensive / energy-consuming to produce
difficult to carry around
bad P.R.
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
So, why don’t we have hydrogen now?
first reason:
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
So, why don’t we have hydrogen now?
second reason:
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Hydrogen in an internal combustion engine
Mazda Miata
BMW 7-Series
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
BMW Re-fuelling station
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Hydrogen in a fuel cell:
Proton Exchange Membrane Cell
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
First fuel cell cars:
Toyota FCV on sale in Japan now
methanol or gasoline reformers (on board or stationary)
reduce pollution by 20 percent
small impact on fossil fuel use if we need to burn oil to create hydrogen
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Hydrogen challenges:
infrastructure
on-board storage
economics
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Hydrogen leader -
ICELAND!
geothermal energy to produce H2
oil-free by 2050
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Other contenders:
propane
natural gas
methanol
ethanol
Bio-Diesel
natural gas / coal Diesel (GTL, CTL)
hybrids
nitrogen
electrics
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Electric cars:
another old principle
one of three early leaders in automotive history, with steam and gasoline
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Electric cars:
Original impetus, California Zero-Emissions requirement…
tailpipe measurement only…
only technology that looked feasible
still need too long an extension cord
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
General Motors EV-1
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Electric cars:
Robert Bryce, US journalist:
“Electric cars are the next big thing...
...and they always will be.”
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Electric cars:
Tesla - great car or stock play?
Nissan Leaf
Mitsubishi i-MiEV
Kisa Soul EV
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Hybrid Vehicles:
another old concept – railroad locomotives are Diesel-electric hybrids
can locally be “zero-tailpipe emissions” vehicles
eliminate range and uncertainty concerns of pure electrics
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Honda Insight / Civic / Accord
gasoline engine
electric assist
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Toyota Prius
electric motor
gasoline assist
Lexus RX400h
Highlander
Camry
Lexus LS 460h
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Hybrid Vehicles:
hybrids often have:
light-weight frames
excellent aerodynamics
regenerative braking
advantages no matter what engine
initial cost versus fuel savings
payback? Up to 25 years!
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Hybrid Vehicles
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Plug-In Range-extended Hybrid
60 km on battery
plug in overnight to recharge
on-board gasoline engine to recharge on the go
Chevrolet Volt
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Immediate short- to medium-term alternative:
DIESEL!
anathema to Americans
Europeans can’t get enough
many on-road advantages
particulates versus CO2
which way do you want to die?
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Immediate short- to medium-term alternative:
Great Britain taxes company cars based on CO2 emissions
changed buying habits in less than a year
needs clean sulphur-free fuel
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Volkswagen 1-Litre car
220 mpg!
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Smart car
fuel economy can be cool!
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
None of the above is THE Answer:
cost
availability
infrastructure
fossil fuel reduction
greenhouse gas reduction
may be many solutions…
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Transmissions
small speed range
multiple-ratio transmission – the more, the merrier (9 is the current maximum)
electronic control
“automatic” manual shifting
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Ferrari Enzo
“automatic” manual gearbox
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Smart car
“automatic” manual gearbox
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Continuously-variable transmission (CVT)
nobody really knows how these work…
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Continuously-variable transmission (CVT)
comfort and convenience of an automatic
performance and fuel economy of a manual
lighter and simpler than either
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
In-Car Electronics
audio / video / television
telephone
Internet
satellite navigation
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Voice Activation
control audio, HVAC, phone, other systems
limited syntax
requires training, both of car and driver
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
BMW iDrive
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
BMW iDrive
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
BMW iDrive
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
New buzzwords…
telematics
“x”-by-wire
throttle-by-wire - everybody
brake-by-wire - Mercedes-Benz
steer-by-wire - Infiniti Q50
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Drive-by-wire controls
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Road-to-driver communication
we’re not alone out there
traffic information systems
variable speed limits
…but…
the human factor…
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Platooning
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Look Ma, no hands!
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Lane-keeping system
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Mercedes-Benz Distronic
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Electronic tracking
GPS sat-nav = real-time traffic information
fleet management advantages
rental car company “nannies”
police chases eliminated?
privacy and social issues
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Autonomous Driving
GPS sat-nav = real-time traffic information
several companies have self-guided steering
the Google Car
regulatory issues
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Is this trip necessary?
one person in eight has a car
what if one person in FOUR?…
telecommuting
electronic “travel” and “freight”
when can we fax a pizza?
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Moller SkyCar
are you kidding me?
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Segway
lean forward to go forward
lean back to go back
lean right to go right
lean left…
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Segway
the President of the company drove one off a cliff and died...
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
AUTOnomy
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
AUTOnomy
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Hy-wire
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Hy-wire chassis
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Hy-wire cut-away
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Hy-wire schematic
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Hy-wire - interior
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Hy-wire - left-hand drive
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Hy-wire - right-hand drive!
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
When?…
within ten years
the car isn’t the problem
it’s the infrastructure, stupid
cell phones show the way?
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
When?…
gasoline - $5.00 a gallon?
we CAN do it
we HAVE to do it
organizations have to get ready for change…
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Things to do…
keep abreast – car magazines, Internet
www.rmi.org
jim@jimkenzie.com
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Porsche four-wheel drive electro-Diesel hybrid
November 5,
2014April 18, 2000
Future Vehicle Technology
Thank you!
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