Fundaments of demography. Demography – introduction Demos + grafein Study of reproduction of...

Fundaments of demography

Demography – introduction

• Demos + grafein

• Study of reproduction of population

• Population• inhabitants in the specific area• group of inhabitants with the same biological,

cultural and social characteristics

The history of demography

• 1662: John Graunt: The natural and political observations, death time table

• based on death time tables → modelling of the death of the London inhabitants

• 17th and 18th century – many theories, example:• A. Smith: Labour requirement influents

and determines state of population, • Thomas Robert Malthus: population has

an exponential growth, means of life support have linear growth

The history of demography

• International statistical congres 1853 in Brussels (initiator L. Quetelet)• the main topic of the congres:

• The first demographic congres 1927, Geneve, formation of International Union for the Scientific Study of Population

Infancy of demography in czech countries

• 1897 Institute of antropology and demography – Charles university

• 1918 State statistical office, department of population statistics

• 1920 Charles University, Faculty of Science

Demographic information sources

• Yearbooks• Demographic yearbook, UN, since 1948

(http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/)• demographic info about chosen countries of the world (not detailed)

• EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat)• detailed demographic info about EU countries

• Czech statistical office (ČSÚ, http://www.czso.cz)• very detailed info about czech inhabitants

Demographic information sources

• Journals• Population Index (USA, quarterly, since 1935)

• Population & Societé (France, monthly, since 1946)

• Demography (USA, quarterly, since 1964)

• Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft (GER, 4 publications per year, since 1975)

• Demografie (CZE, quarterly, since 1958)

Demographic data

• Two types of data

Population state

• Based on census of inhabitants or population census• Census of inhabitants (collected

only basic data – age, sex, occupation, etc.)

• Population census (big action, many personal characteristics, is done more precisely)

Population state indicators

• Size of population (2 types):

• Size of population

• Mid-year state of population

Population state indicators

• Average computation• linear growth of inhabitants

• geometric growth of inhabitants

• continuous growth of inhabitants

Population state indicators

• Density of population

Population state indicators

• Population structure by sex• share of men

• share of women

• index of masculinity

• index of feminity

Population state indicators

• Structure of population by age• biological generation I. 0 – 14 years II. 15 – 49 years

III. 50 years and over

• dependency ratio – according BG

BGI

BGIIIDR

.

.

Population state indicators

• economic generation• I. 0 – 19 years (pre-productivity) • II. 15 – 49 years (productivity)• III. 50 and over (post-productivity)

• index of economic load

• weigthed index of economic load

Population state indicators

• young dependency rate (green dependency)

• old dependency rate(grey dependency)

Population state indicators

• Age pyramid

• progressive (I. BG > III. BG)

• stationary (I. BG ~ III. BG)

• regressive (I. BG < III. BG)

Population state indicators

• Age pyramid

Population state indicators – age pyramid

Population state indicators

• Age of population

• life expectancy – average duration of life of the current newborn

• normal life expectancy – the most frequently age of death (mode of live duration)

• probability life expectancy – age, in which could live at least a half of population (median)

Population movement indicators

• are directly related to reproduction of population• Indicators: birth, death, marrage,

divorce and moving

• register of natural change

• register of migration

Demographic indicators

Study of reproduction of population

• process of dying-cul

• process of reproduction

• process of migration

Demographic indicators

• Basic indicators• mortality – death ability • fertility – ability of reproduction • marriage – ability of making couples, which

make possible a reproduction• divorce – ability to cancel out of made

couples• migration – ability to move

Demographic indicators

• Mortality• death rate

exposition – estimate of average of population – mid-year state of population

Mid-year state of population is estimated1. arithmetical average of first and last value

in the time period2. size of population in the centre of the

interval

Demographic indicators

• Specific indicators of mortality (by age, by sex etc.)suckling mortality – mortality up to 1 year of the

suckling´s life

• suckling mortality quotient

newborn mortality – mortality up to 28 days after childbirth

• newborn mortality quotient

Demographic indicators

• letality rate

• specific rate of letality – by age

Demographic indicators

• Natality

• natality rate

• fertility rate

• contingent – number of women in the fertility age (15 – 49 years)

Demographic indicators

• specific rate of fertility – includes age of the women

• total fertility rate – average number of children, which are born to 1 woman, fertility is not changing, mortality up to 50 years is zero

• net rate of reproduction – number of girls, which are born to 1 women, fertility is not changing a mortality up to 50 years is also not changing

• crude rate of reproduction – number of girls, which are born to 1 women, fertility is not changing a mortality up to 50 years is zero

Demographic indicators

• Newborn classification

• sex – index of masculinity and feminity• vitality• legitimate• maturity – readiness to live in the real

world• full-term baby• not full-term baby

Demographic indicators

• Abortion

• crude rate of abortion

• specific rate of abortion – includes age of the women

• total rate of abortion – average number of abortions per life of the women, fertility and abortion rate is not changing and death rate up to 50 years is zero

Demographic indicators

• Marriage a divorce

• crude marriage rate

• crude marriage rate – men

• crude marriage rate – women

Demographic indicators

• specific marriage rate

• specific first marriage rate

• first marriage average age

Demographic indicators

• crude divorce rate

• specific divorce rate

• specific divorce rates

Demographic indicators

• Migration• number of moved in (I) and moved out (E)• migration balance • total migration

• immigration intensity

• emigration intensity

Demographic indicators

• relative migration balance

• total migration rate

• migration balance rate

Demographic indicators

• Population increase• natural population increase

• K = N – M

• natural increase rate

• total population increase• T = N – M + S