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COVID19: FTTH Forecast for EUROPEEuropean FTTH/B status
FTTH Council Europe Conference –2020
Roland MontagnePrincipal Analyst
+33 (0)4 67 14 44 26r.montagne@idate.org
www.idate.org
Market forecast by 2020 and 2026 reviewed after COVID-19 initial wave during 2020
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 2Enlighten your digital future!
As measured during September 2019 in EU39: 70.4 million FTTH/B subscribers Almost 172 million FTTH/B Homes Passed
Market Panorama Revisited - FTTH/B figures as of September 2019
FTTH/B Subscribers Homes Passed evolution
FTTH Council Europe scope at September 201939
countries covered
Coverage rateEU28 : 39.4%EU39 : 49.9%
Take-up rateEU28 : 43.3%EU39 : 40.9%
EU28 countries
Countries under study
16.1 20.130.5
36.244.5 52.6
61.270.4
60.273.4
98.1
115.2130.1
141.1153.0
172.2
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
December2012
December2013
December2014
September2015
September2016
September2017
September2018
September2019
Mill
ion
FTTH/B Subscribers FTTH/B Homes Passed
FTTH/B European market evolution (EU39)In terms of Homes Passed and Subscribers (2012-2019)
X 4.4 X 2.9
Trends from 2012 to 2019
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
® IDATE DigiWorld 2020
© IDATE DigiWorld 2019 – p. 3Enlighten your digital future!
Methodology
ACTIONSResults
Mission on behalf of the FTTH Council Europe – 18th edition
Provide a forecast overview of FTTH/B European markets by 2020 and 2026
This is an updated version once COVID-19 impacted in Q2 in Europe. Many plans and budget in Europe were reformulated according to the new reality in terms of broadband demand and financial resources
Bottom-up methodology
Scope
• Individual analysis of 15 countriesbased on Top 15 countries by Homespassed
• Study of EU27+UK and EU38+UK (1)countries
• Based on feedback from all main operators, service provider associations and regulatory contacts in each country
• Desk research
• Direct contacts with leading playersand IDATE partners within countries
• Information exchange with FTTHCouncil Europe members
• Information was compared toprevious forecast efforts.
• Apply Forecast Model based onSupply/Demand Criteria.
• Both quantitative and qualitative data
• Adjusted Forecasts for years 2020and 2026 after COVID-19 impacted
• Results are compared with localintelligence sources, includingregulator and other recentpublications where available andappropriate.
(1) EU39 = EU27 (excl. Cyprus) + 4 CIS countries, UK, Andorra, Iceland, Israel, Macedonia, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland, Turkey
© IDATE DigiWorld 2019 – p. 4Enlighten your digital future!
• Strategic plans from telecom players towards high-speed broadband deployments once COVID-19 impacted in the European region.
• Public Funds allocated from governments to deploy fibre networks.
• New Initiatives from Municipality/utility players to accelerate fibre development in remote areas, where private operators don’t have any incentives to deploy.
• Copper switch off initiatives delimited by many players.
• Cable operators migrations to FTTH/B
• Green-field housing and systematic deployment of FTTH in any new build housing
Supply criteria
• Impact of infrastructure costs • Impact of copper-based DSL
improvements with new emerging variants, such as G.Fast.
• Impact of cable-based networks with DOCSIS 3.1 and coming DOCSIS 4.0
• Impact of networks sharing agreements and new deployments based on co-investment among players.
• Regulatory changes at European and national level to create a common commitment to deploy FTTH networks.
• Impact of macroeconomic environment and economical trends: teleworking as a new dynamic and the creation of new business models.
• We recognize that plans for FTTH rollout may be impacted by buildout resource availability (Manpower).
Others
• Broadband services take-up.Average speeds continue to rise for households and new dynamics after COVID-19 impacted
• Data consumption keeps growing due to new confinement dynamics (teleworking and remote studying) that force the intensive use of video content, high-definition streaming which demand high bandwidth capacity.
• Demands to accomplish EC Digital Agenda goals by 2020 and 2025
• People in rural areas still not covered by high-speed connections demanding access to NGNs. People moved to rural areas as a way to reduce virus exposure.
• National and Digital Agendas pushing to accelerate fibre deployments
Demand criteria
Forecast study – Factors taken into account
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 5Enlighten your digital future!
Indicators affecting the FTTH adoptionPositive criteria
More plans have been announced in European countries towards 5G’s implementation. These plans are pushing fibre deployments which makes FTTH services closer to end users.
Governments are promoting the deployment of fibre networks as part of their digital agendas to provide higher data speeds to more people. These initiatives also include the allocation of public funds in order to reach also rural areas with FTTH. More people doing teleworking activities in more isolated areas to avoid virus exposure.
Many players have announced the switch-off of their copper-based infrastructure and migration towards full fibre solutions
COVID-19 has pushed data traffic and new broadband demands since people need to stay at home. This is pushing towards a scalable technology, like fibre, with higher bandwidth and lower latency needs (Resilience, symmetricity of Bandwidth)
Municipalities/Utilities have announced the expansion of fibre networks in remote areas where not always economically viable for private players. Increase in FTTH network sharing agreements between players. including more appetite for single-build deployments utilising wholesale and infrastructure-centric network builders.
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 6Enlighten your digital future!
Indicators affecting the FTTH adoptionNegative impacts
Improvement in current copper-based technologies (G.Fast,Vectoring) or cable-based technologies (DOCSIS 3.1/4.0) could delay FTTH rollout in many countries up to 2023
Mobile 5G / LEO technology may substitute FTTH in non economically viable areas
Deployment costs are still very high for FTTH technologies versus wireless solutions
Some digital agendas have set a delimited data speed without mentioning FTTH as the specific technology to deploy. This will promote technology diversification, but it will make FTTH deployment slower.
Initiatives to deploy full fibre solutions in dense and remote areas is not yet a common message in Europe. Therefore, public funds to deploy fibre in rural areas could be restricted.
Lack of voucher schemes in many countries is delaying FTTH demand and copper switch off implementation.
The ability for network builders to build Fibre infrastructure in line with existing plans (and 2025 goals) is a growing industry concern.
5G
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 7Enlighten your digital future!
Forecast study – Individual analysis of 15 European countries
Top 15 countries by Homes passed as at Sept. 2019
Belarus
France
Germany
Italy
Kazakhstan
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Russia
Spain
Sweden
Turkey
Ukraine
UK
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 8Enlighten your digital future!
European FTTH/B Historical and Forecasts (2012-2026)
FTTH/B Subscribers Forecasts (million)Comparison EU27+UK / EU38+UK
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
Evolution of FTTH/B Homes Passed (million)Comparison EU27+UK / EU38+UK
16 20 30 36 45 53 61
70 86
103 122
145
170 191
208
6 8 13 16 20 26 32 38 49
62 77
95 117
134 148
FTTH/B Subscribers - EU38+UK FTTH/B Subscribers - EU27+UK
60 73
98 115
130 141 153 172
195 220
247 268
286 303
317
26 32 41 47 57 65 74 88
105 123
144 164
179 192 202
FTTH/B HP - EU38+UK FTTH/B HP - EU27+UK
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 9Enlighten your digital future!
European FTTH/B Historical and Forecasts (2012-2026)
FTTH/B Take-up Rates Forecasts (Subs over Homes Passed, in %)Comparison EU27+UK / EU38+UK
23.4% 24.9%
30.6%33.4% 35.7%
39.3%42.5% 43.3%
46.4%50.3%
53.1%57.6%
65.2%69.9%
73.3%
26.8% 27.4%31.1% 31.4%
34.2%37.3%
40.1% 40.9%43.9%
46.9%49.5%
54.0%59.4%
62.9%65.4%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Subs / HP EU27+UK Subs / HP EU38+UK
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 10Enlighten your digital future!
3.7
4.5
5.0
5.5
7.3
7.7
11.5
15.5
18.1
21.1
26.0
27.5
30.0
34.0
53.0
- 10 20 30 40 50 60
Belarus
Portugal
Sweden
Kazakhstan
Romania
Netherlands
Poland
Ukraine
Spain
Turkey
Italy
United Kingdom
France
Germany
Russia
Millions
Top 15 Countries by FTTH/B Homes Passed in 2021 & 2026
European ranking in terms of FTTH/B Homes passed (in million homes)
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
2026 ForecastsEU28 : ~202m FTTH H.P.EU39 : ~317m FTTH H.P.
% Evolution 2019 / 2020
+1%+27%+3%+47%+3%+20%
+46%+2%
+22%+41%+5%+15%+8%
+6%+1%
2020 Forecasts 2026 Forecasts % Evolution 2019 / 2026
+9%+730%+79%+548%+218%+120%+17%+38%+134%+133%+17%+57%+20%
+33%+7%3.5
3.6
3.8
3.8
4.4
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.3
11.5
11.6
12.0
16.0
21.5
49.1
- 10 20 30 40 50
Belarus
Portugal
Kazakhstan
Netherlands
Sweden
United Kingdom
Poland
Germany
Romania
Turkey
Ukraine
Italy
Spain
France
Russia
Millions
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 11Enlighten your digital future!
2.7
3.2
3.3
4.0
4.6
5.6
5.8
7.3
7.5
12.0
15.2
24.0
25.0
28.0
33.0
- 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Kazakhstan
Belarus
Portugal
Sweden
Netherlands
Ukraine
Romania
Poland
Turkey
Italy
Spain
United Kingdom
Germany
France
Russia
Millions
Top 15 Countries by FTTH/B Subscribers in 2020 & 2026
European ranking in terms of FTTH/B Subscriptions (million)
2020 Forecasts
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
2026 ForecastsEU28 : ~148m FTTH Subs.EU39 : ~208m FTTH Subs.% Evolution
2019 / 2020
+10%
2026 Forecasts
+15%+39%+10%+23%+12%
+9%+25%
+165%+19%+48%+19%+72%+81%+23%
% Evolution 2019 / 2026
+54%+271%
+1757%+3000%
+55%+981%+148%+673%+47%
+170%+172%+47%+80%+30%
+131%1.4
1.4
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.5
2.6
2.7
3.1
3.7
4.3
10.5
11.3
23.5
- 5 10 15 20 25
Kazakhstan
United Kingdom
Italy
Netherlands
Germany
Portugal
Poland
Ukraine
Belarus
Sweden
Turkey
Romania
France
Spain
Russia
Millions
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 12Enlighten your digital future!
Top 15 Countries by FTTH/B Household penetration
European ranking in terms of FTTH/B Household penetration FTTH/B Subscriptions / Households (in %)
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
27.7%
31.6%
33.8%
43.1%
49.3%
55.9%
56.4%
59.0%
67.5%
69.9%
78.8%
79.1%
81.6%
83.2%
91.8%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%
Turkey
Ukraine
Kazakhstan
Italy
Poland
Russia
Netherlands
Germany
Romania
Portugal
Belarus
Sweden
United Kingdom
Spain
France
4.8%
4.9%
7.1%
14.4%
15.4%
17.1%
19.0%
25.3%
35.5%
40.7%
49.3%
50.1%
62.2%
62.3%
68.4%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%
Germany
United Kingdom
Italy
Ukraine
Turkey
Poland
Kazakhstan
Netherlands
France
Russia
Portugal
Romania
Sweden
Spain
Belarus
Penetration forecast in 2026
EU28 : 51.6%EU39 : 57.8%
Penetration forecast in 2020
EU28 : 21.1%EU39 : 23.9%
2020 Forecasts 2026 Forecasts
© IDATE DigiWorld 2019 – p. 13Enlighten your digital future!
FTTH / FTTB architecturePositive FTTH evolution : Fibre closer to end-users by 2026
FTTH Architecture & Technology trends
2021 ForecastsFTTH/B at Sept. 2019 2026 Forecasts
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
60.3%
39.7%
FTTH FTTB
62.5%
37.5%
FTTH FTTB
68.0%
32.0%
FTTH FTTB
© IDATE DigiWorld 2019 – p. 14Enlighten your digital future!
FTTH Architecture & Technology trends
2021 ForecastsPON/Ethernet ratio at Sept. 2019
2026 Forecasts
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
PON / EthernetPON solutions will continue to be predominant in the coming years
50.0%50.0%
PON Ethernet
57.0%
43.0%
PON Ethernet
76.0%
24.0%
PON Ethernet
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 15Enlighten your digital future!
Key conclusions COVID-19 crisis has impacted on data traffic and new broadband demand. Certainly it is confirmed in 2020
that major players are moving towards full fibre solutions and now they have set goals and actions toexpand FTTH solutions in the coming years. It includes migration from their existing copper-based andcable-based networks (e.g. BT in UK / Orange / Telefonica).
Goals and public funds have been announced from governments in order to deploy FTTH/B socketsthroughout Europe, in special in rural areas.
A new digital gap for teleworking performance is now present.
Alternative operators are arising in areas not covered by major FTTH/B players. This is promotingcompetition and diversifying the digital market with new actors in white areas.
Agreements to deploy or to share FTTH services between private players, utilities companies and localauthorities are evolving towards a convergent portfolio where different services can be provided using thesame infrastructure (telecom services, smart cities solutions and utilities)
5G needs a fibre-based infrastructure. Many mobile operators are taking advantage to also expand itsfibre footprint and to provide full fibre services to end-users.
Cable-based and copper-based ISPs have started to diversify its core technologies towards fibre. Theservice portfolio to their customers now includes a set of different technology that best suit customerdemands.
GROWTH
BUSINESSEVOLUTION
TECHNO-SYMBIOSIS
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 16Enlighten your digital future!
Realities moving post COVID-19 first wave
* 10% impact to growth based on recent second Wave data
• FTTH Deployments in Europe continue to be resilient, during and post COVID-19• 2020 – Homes Passed growth impacted negatively by 10% across Europe in Q3/Q4 2020*• Subscribers growth increase significantly during this period (+5.6%)
Net adds – EU27+UK
• 2020:1.1M / (+4%) subscriber growth by end 2020.
• 2021: 3.4M FTTH/B estimated subscriptions (+5.8%) and +1.1M FTTH/B Homes Passed (+0.9%).
• 2026: 18.3M FTTH/B estimated subscriptions (+14.2%) and +17.4M FTTH/B Homes Passed (+9.5%).
Net adds – EU38+UK
• 2020: 2.2M / (+2.6%) subscriber growth by end 2020
• 2021: 6.1M FTTH/B estimated subscriptions and (+8.9%) +6.6M FTTH/B Homes Passed (+3.1%).
• 2026: 22.4M FTTH/B estimated subscriptions (+12.2%) and +21.3M FTTH/B Homes Passed (+7.2%).
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 17Enlighten your digital future!
Appendix
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 18Enlighten your digital future!
Appendix – FTTH/B Homes Passed/Subscribers YoY (in millions)Belarus (87% Coverage / 71% Take-up / 62% Homes
connected)France (57% Coverage / 45% Take-up / 25% Homes
connected)
7.610.5
13.516.5
19.522.5
25.528.0
16.821.5 23.1 24.7 26.3 27.9 29.5 30.0
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Sept.2019
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Subs Homes passed
Germany (10% Coverage / 33% Take-up / 3% Homes connected)
Italy (30% Coverage / 14% Take-up / 4% Homes connected)
1.1 1.9 3.2 4.8 6.4 8.19.9
12.08.2
12.016.0
20.022.5
24.5 25.5 26.0
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
Sept. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Subs Homes passed
2.5 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2
3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7
-
1
2
3
4
Sept.2019
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Subs Homes passed
1.3 2.0 3.56.0
10.0
17.022.0
25.0
4.1 6.09.0
14.0
22.026.0
30.034.0
- 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Sept.2019
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Subs Homes passed
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPETake-up rate = FTTHB Subs / FTTHB HP
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 19Enlighten your digital future!
Kazakhstan (48% Coverage / 33% Take-up / 16% Homes Connected)
Netherlands (42% Coverage / 51% Take-up / 22% Homes Connected)
Poland (34% Coverage / 19% Take-up / 6% Homes connected)
Portugal (78% Coverage / 54% Take-up / 42% Homes connected)
1.7 2.0 2.53.1 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.6
3.3 3.84.7
5.7 6.2 6.7 7.2 7.7
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Sept. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Subs Homes passed
0.92.5
3.74.7 5.5 6.2 6.8 7.3
4.96.0
7.08.4 9.2 10.0 10.8 11.5
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Sept. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Subs Homes passed
1.82.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.3
3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5
-
1
2
3
4
5
Sept. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Subs Homes passed
Appendix – FTTH/B Homes Passed/Subscribers YoY (in millions)
1.1 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7
3.5 3.8 4.0 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.2 5.5
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
Sept. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Subs Homes passed
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPETake-up rate = FTTHB Subs / FTTHB HP
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 20Enlighten your digital future! Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
Romania (72% Coverage / 63% Take-up / 45% Homes Connected)
Russia (85% Coverage / 44% Take-up / 37% Homes Connected)
Spain (86% Coverage / 63% Take-up / 54% Homes Connected)
Sweden (87% Coverage / 66% Take-up / 57% Homes Connected)
3.94.3
4.7 5.1 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.86.2 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.3
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Sept. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Subs Homes passed
21.4 23.5 25.5 27.3 28.9 30.4 31.8 33.0
48.6 49.1 49.7 50.5 51.3 51.9 52.5 53.0
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sept. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Subs Homes passed
9.811.3
12.3 13.1 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.215.5 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.1
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
Sept. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Subs Homes passed
2.73.1
3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.04.24.4 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0
2
3
4
5
Sept. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Subs Homes passed
Take-up rate = FTTHB Subs / FTTHB HP
Appendix – FTTH/B Homes Passed/Subscribers YoY (in millions)
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 21Enlighten your digital future!
Turkey (41% Coverage / 31% Take-up / 13% Homes Connected)
Ukraine (62% Coverage / 18% Take-up / 11% Homes Connected)
United Kingdom (15% Coverage / 18% Take-up / 2.8% Homes Connected)
3.0 3.7 4.6 5.3 5.9 6.5 7.0 7.59.6
11.513.7
15.5 17.0 18.5 19.8 21.1
-
5
10
15
20
25
Sept. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Subs Homes passed
2.1 2.6 3.2 3.7 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.6
11.2 11.6 11.9 12.7 13.5 14.2 14.9 15.5
- 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18
Sept. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Subs Homes passed
0.8 1.43.2
6.011.0
17.021.0
24.0
4.2 6.010.0
15.019.0
22.025.0
27.5
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
Sept. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Subs Homes passed
Appendix – FTTH/B Homes Passed/Subscribers YoY (in millions)
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPETake-up rate = FTTHB Subs / FTTHB HP
© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 22Enlighten your digital future! Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
EU-27+UK FTTH/B Subscribers
Appendix – FTTH/B Forecast 2020-2026: Comparison before/after COVID 1st Wave
4858
130
4962
148
0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%
020406080
100120140160
2020 2021 2026
Milli
ons
Forecast before COVID Forecast since COVID Net adds (in %)
106122
184
105123
202
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0
50
100
150
200
250
2020 2021 2026
Milli
ons
Forecast before COVID Forecast since COVID Net adds (in %)
EU-27+UK FTTH/B Homes Passed
8397
185
86103
208
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
0
50
100
150
200
250
2020 2021 2026
Milli
ons
Forecast before COVID Forecast since COVID Net adds (in %)
EU-38+UK FTTH/B Subscribers
194214
296
195220
317
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2020 2021 2026
Milli
ons
Forecast before COVID Forecast since COVID Net adds (in %)
EU-38+UK FTTH/B Homes Passed
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