From Apathy to Action - Center for Science and Technology...

ClimateandCongress:TheMakingofaCitizen

FromApathytoAction

CSTPRNoontimeSeminarOctober25,2017GrantCouch

AGENDA

• PersonalBackground• ClimateEducation• PossibleSolution &Path• PoliticalEducation/AppreciatingtheSystem• BecomingaCitizen• Takeaways

COUNTRYHOME…

What,meworry?

ClimateEducation/UnderstandingtheIssue(s)

• SCIENCE?

Image Credit: NASA's Earth Observatory

ATTRIBUTESofaGOODCLIMATEPOLICY

• CREATESSIGNIFICANTREDUCTIONSINGhGEMISSIONS• OFFSETSTHEREGRESSIVENATUREOFHIGHERENERGYCOSTS• INCREASESU.S.EMPLOYMENTANDECONOMYW/OGROWINGTHEGOVERNMENT• BUSINESSFRIENDLY§MAINTAINSAMERICA’SGLOBALLEADERSHIPROLLW/OREQUIRINGANINTERNATIONALAGREEMENT

PROPOSEDSOLUTION

REVENUE-NEUTRALPRICEONCO2

Placeafeeonfossilfuelsatthesource(mine,wellorport).

Returnalloftherevenuetohouseholdsequally.

Aborderadjustmentongoodsimportedfromorexportedtocountrieswithoutanequivalentpriceoncarbon.

2

1

3

Revenue-NeutralPriceonCO2:CarbonFeeandDividend– “CF&D”

CITIZENSCLIMATELOBBY/CF&DDETAILSFEEONCARBON§ STARTSAT$10/METRICTONOFCO2§ ESCALATES$10EVERYYEARTHROUGHTHE2030s§ ATPOINTOFEXTRACTION(WELLORMINE)&PORTOFENTRY

DIVIDEND

100%OFREVENUESRAISEDAREDISTRIBUTEDTOALLAMERICANHOUSEHOLDS.

BORDERADJUSTMENT(EXPORTS&IMPORTS)

PREVENTSTHEEXPORTOFPOLLUTIONANDJOBS

ECONOMICIMPACTofCF&D

• 52%REDUCTIONINCO2EMISSIONS

• ADDITIONAL$70BIL/YRINU.S.GDP

• ADDITIONAL2+MMU.S.JOBS/YRBY10TH YR

• DIVIDENDS“PROTECT”70+%OFAMERICANHOUSEHOLDS

Source:REMI- RegionalEconomicModels,Inc.

THEPATHTOPASSAGE:

.NON-PARTISAN

.85,000VOLUNTEERMEMBERS

.TRAINEDTOLOBBY&OUTREACH

.REPRESENTEDINALL435CONGRESSIONALDISTRICTS

POLITICALEDUCATION:APPRECIATINGTHESYSTEM

"Americansarepolarizedintheworstpossibleway— twotribesnotsomuchunitedbylovefortheirownashatredfortheother."

DavidFrench- NationalReview

TWOPERCEPTIONS

ADIFFERENTSCIENCE

DifferentWorldviews

Source:CulturalCognitionandPublicPolicybyDanM.KahanandDonaldBraman

Hierarchist/Authoritarian

Egalitarian

Solidarist/CommunitarianIndividualist

POLITICALHISTORY- NOTALWAYSTHUS…

• Nixon>EPA– 1970

• Reagan>MontrealProtocol– 1988

• S.1610- GlobalClimateChangePreventionActof1989–sponsoredbyClaudineSchneider(R– RI)w/bi-partisanco-sponsors

CURRENTPOLITICALREALITY• LOUD• Hoax/China/“CleanCoal”/DefundEPA

•QUIET• ClimateLeadershipCouncil(Shultz,Bakeretal)• Bi-partisanHouseClimateSolutionsCaucus• RepublicanHouseClimateResolution(H.Res.195)• DoD– DefenseSecretaryMattis• SecofState,Tillerson

THEFUNDEMENTALPOLITICALPROBLEM?

Top10PriorityIssues,byPartyIdentification“HowimportantisittoyouthatthepresidentandCongressdealwitheachofthefollowingissuesinthenextyear?”

Priority Democrat/Democrat leaners(%) Republican/RepublicanLeaners(%)

1 Economy(91) Economy (88)

2 Education(91) Terrorism(77)

3 Povertyandhomelessness(82) Militaryanddefense(76)

4 Healthcarepolicy(79) Healthcarepolicy(75)

5 SocialSecurityandMedicare(77) Education(70)

6 Distributionofincome/wealth (72) Taxes(69)

7 Crime (71) SocialSecurityandMedicare(67)

8 Environment(71) Crime(65)

9 Terrorism(68) Immigration(54)

10 Gunpolicy(64) Worldaffairs(53)

MoodoftheNation

Survey,2014

%ExtremelyorVeryimportant

1,018adults,livinginall50U.S.states&

D.C.

25

Butthereishope…

…theMillennialsarecoming

TOTAL MEN WOMEN1)Fixingpublicschools 58% 50% 65%2)Promotingcleanenergy 50% 51% 50%3)ReducingtheNat’ldebt 49% 47% 50%4)Payequalityforwomen 48% 37% 59%5)Addressingpoverty 47% 45% 49%6)Studentloanreform 42% 50% 65%

Top6IssuesMillennial’swantSupportedbyanyCandidates

Source:CollegeRepublicanNationalCommittee– MillennialSurveyJune2016- www.millennial.gop

Source:CollegeRepublicanNationalCommittee– MillennialSurveyJune2016- www.millennial.gop

TOTAL MEN WOMEN1)Racialandgenderequality 14 7 72)Newwaystopayforcollege 13 7 63)Raisingteachersalariesandschoolfunding 12 7 5

4)Reducingincomeinequality 9 6 35)Makingiteasiertomoveupoutofpoverty 9 2 7

6)Takingactiontoaddressclimatechange 9 4 4

Top Six Desired Political Party Attributes

SCIENCEORRISKMANAGEMENT?

• WHATWECAN“ACCEPT”ISDIFFERENTFROMWHATWE“SHOULD”KNOW

• ANDWHATCANWE“KNOW”FORSURE?

The“FATTAIL”– The“BLACKSWAN”

What,meworry?

TAKEAWAYS

• BasicRiskManagementcallsforActionandthereisa“nocost”solution• AstrongAmericaneconomyandenvironmentalqualityarenotmutuallyexclusive• CompatiblewithbothRepublicanandDemocratprinciples

www.CitizensClimateLobby.org /CitizensClimateLobby

REFERENCESLIDES

MoralFoundation— 6BuildingBlocksLiberty/Oppression:theloathingoftyrannyCare/Harm:cherishing&protectingothersFairness/Cheating:renderingjusticeaccordingtosharedrulesLoyalty/Betrayal:standingwithyourgroup,family,nationAuthority/Subversion:obeyingtradition&legitimateauthoritySanctity/Degradation: abhorrencefordisgustingactions,things,foods

Source:TheRighteousMindbyJonathanHaidt

MoralFoundations

37

Fairness

CareAuthoritySanctityLoyalty

MoralFoundationsQuestionnaire

FairnessCare

BenefitsofDividendstoUSHouseholds

• UMassAmherstMay2017• dividendsprotectthepurchasingpowerof89%ofthoseinthebottomhalfofthedistribution

• USTreasuryAnalysisJan2017• Bottom70%ofAmericanscomeoutaheadunderacarbondividendsprogram

• InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis– Feb2016• 58%ofAmericanscomeoutaheadwithnearly90%ofthehouseholdslivingbelowtheFederalPovertyLevelbenefitingfromthepolicy

T RE A SU RY A N A L Y SIS

A ccording tothisrecent ana ly sis fromtheTreasury Department ,thebot tom70% ofAmericanscomeout aheadunder a ca rbondiv idendsprog ram.

T RE A SU RY A N A L Y SIS

A ccording tothisrecent ana ly sis fromtheTreasury Department ,thebot tom70% ofAmericanscomeout aheadunder a ca rbondiv idendsprog ram.

T RE A SU RY A N A L Y SIS

A ccording tothisrecent ana ly sis fromtheTreasury Department ,thebot tom70% ofAmericanscomeout aheadunder a ca rbondiv idendsprog ram.

ANALYSISREMI- RegionalEconomicModels,Inc.

• non- partisaneconomicmodelinggroup• respected- andused- bybothsidesoftheaisleandtheUSgovernment

http://dv7gcmvxe5e8l.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/The-Economic-Climate-Fiscal-Power-and-Demographic-Impact-of-a-National-Fee-and-Dividend-Carbon-Tax-6.9.14.pdf

ARGUMENTSAGAINSTPRICINGCO2

• DKhowmuchGWiscausedbyman,orauniversallyacceptedSCC• OtherGWcontributorsarebig(i.e.landuse)• DKhowmuchpricingcarbonwouldhelpGWorcorrectemissionpath• Disruptionofestablishedindustries/jobs• Hurtslowincome(w/odividend)

3 PRICINGSOLUTIONS:

§ CAP&TRADE(EMISSIONSTRADING)

§ REVENUE-NEUTRAL– DIVIDENDMODEL

§ REVENUE-NEUTRAL– INCOMETAXOFFSETMODEL

REVENUE-NEUTRALPRICE(RNP)vs.C&T&CPPPOSITIVECONSEQUENCES

CONSEQUENCE\POLICY RNP C&T CPP*.Coverseachpointofconsumption-eachsourceofGhG YES NO NO

.Preventsexportofpollutionandjobs YES NO NO

.Transparent&Predictable YES** NO NO

.IncreasesUSeconomy&jobs YES NO NO

.Easilyreplicableinternationally YES NO NO

.Allowsforreducedregulations YES NO NO

.Consistentnationalpolicy YES YES Depends

*Stand-inforanyregulations**Ideallyit’salsogradual

REVENUE-NEUTRALPRICEvs.C&T&CPPAVOIDEDNEGATIVECONSEQUENCES

CONSEQUENCE\POLICY RNP C&TCPP

Growthingovernmentoversight&regulation NO YES YES

Opportunityforcorruptioninweakerinternationalstates NO YES N/A*

Opportunityformarketmanipulation NO YES NO

*Notreplicableinternationally

REVENUE-NEUTRALITYOPTIONSHouseholdDividendvsIncomeTaxOffset

EFFECT\POLICY DIVIDEND ITOGreateracceptanceontheright(S/Tviability) NO YES

Lastingconstituency(L/Tviability) YES NO

Offsetregressivenatureofhigherenergyprices YES NO

L/TRevenueNeutrality? YES NOGreaterincreaseinGDP* NO YES

*BothincreaseGDP