Fraction complete, January 2016 - McGill University · Fraction complete, January 2016 Egypt...

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2Fraction complete, January 2016

EgyptPortugal

ChileGreece

BoliviaPeru

PakistanRomania

KazakhstanAlgeria

PhilippinesSaudi Arabia

TanzaniaDR Congo

FinlandSweden

ThailandIran

IndonesiaSouth Africa

PolandNigeria

UkraineUnited Kingdom

TurkeySpain

ItalyMexico

ArgentinaGermany

AustraliaCanadaFrance

IndiaJapan

BrazilRussia

ChinaUnited States

World

Visual assessmentPoint estimateBootstrap (95pc CI)Multilevel model (95pc CI)

Parametric modelCountry-level fitSub-country fitDensity quintile fit

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2Fraction complete, January 2016

ZambiaLibya

Cote d'IvoireSri Lanka

LithuaniaSwitzerland

TaiwanAngola

NepalMongolia

UgandaZimbabwe

BulgariaSudan

HungaryEthiopia

EcuadorCameroon

DenmarkKenya

MyanmarSyria

MaliNew Zealand

VenezuelaUzbekistan

BelgiumIraq

MalaysiaIreland

Viet NamCzech Rep.

MoroccoMozambique

AustriaNorwayNetherlands

ColombiaSouth Korea

Belarus

Visual assessmentPoint estimateBootstrap (95pc CI)Multilevel model (95pc CI)

Parametric modelCountry-level fitSub-country fitDensity quintile fit

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2Fraction complete, January 2016

HondurasJordan

YemenSierra Leone

MoldovaPuerto Rico

Costa RicaDominican Rep.

UruguaySlovenia

South SudanOman

Bosnia \& Herz.Chad

SlovakiaKyrgyzstan

GuatemalaEstonia

UAESenegal

BeninNorth Korea

CambodiaBotswana

MadagascarAzerbaijan

Burkina FasoTunisia

MalawiBangladesh

GeorgiaGuinea

AfghanistanNamibia

CubaParaguay

CroatiaLatvia

SerbiaGhana

Visual assessmentPoint estimateBootstrap (95pc CI)Multilevel model (95pc CI)

Parametric modelCountry-level fitSub-country fitDensity quintile fit

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2Fraction complete, January 2016

LuxembourgBhutan

FijiWestern Sahara

GambiaEritrea

TrinidadQatar

GabonCyprus

SwazilandMontenegro

KuwaitKosovo

JamaicaPalestine

MacedoniaRwanda

PanamaLebanon

Papua New GuineaMauritania

IcelandLesotho

HaitiLiberia

BurundiArmenia

El SalvadorNicaragua

AlbaniaCongo

TajikistanC. African Rep.

TurkmenistanTogo

SomaliaIsrael

LaosNiger

Visual assessmentPoint estimateBootstrap (95pc CI)Multilevel model (95pc CI)

Parametric modelCountry-level fitSub-country fitDensity quintile fit

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2Fraction complete, January 2016

Faroe IslandsGrenada

Isle of ManMaldives

ArubaFalkland Isl.

AntiguaSamoa

Saint LuciaTonga

ComorosUS Virgin Isl.

Solomon Isl.Aland Islands

GuamCuracao

DjiboutiFr. Polynesia

Fr. GuianaMalta

BarbadosVanuatu

Cabo VerdeBrunei

Guinea-BissauHong KongMartinique

MauritiusTimor-Leste

GuadeloupeBahrain

Eq. GuineaSingapore

New CaledoniaN. Cyprus

GuyanaSuriname

BahamasBelize

Reunion

Visual assessmentPoint estimateBootstrap (95pc CI)Multilevel model (95pc CI)

Parametric modelCountry-level fitSub-country fitDensity quintile fit

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2Fraction complete, January 2016

Br. Ind. Ocean Terr.Gibraltar

Christmas Isl.Norfolk Isl.

SvalbardSt. Barthelemy

St. PierreNiue

MontserratMarshall Isl.

St. MartinSt. Helena

Wallis \& FutunaAnguillaSt. Maarten

PalauCook Isl.

San MarinoAm. Samoa

LiechtensteinBr. Virgin Isl.

MacaoMicronesia

AndorraSeychelles

GreenlandGuernsey

BermudaSao TomeMayotte

KiribatiBonaire

Turks \& CaicosJersey

Akrotiri DhekeliaSt. Kitts \& Nevis

St. VincentCayman Isl.

N. Mariana Isl.Dominica

Visual assessmentPoint estimateBootstrap (95pc CI)Multilevel model (95pc CI)

Parametric modelCountry-level fitSub-country fitDensity quintile fit

101 103 105 107

Roads reported by IRF, km

101

102

103

104

105

106

107

Estim

ated

road

s fro

m O

SM d

ata

(km

)

2009201220150.0

10.020.030.0

Leng

th (m

illion

km

) World

2009201220150.003.006.009.00

United States

2009201220150.00

2.50

5.00

7.50China

2009201220150.001.002.003.00

Russia

2009201220150.000.501.001.50

Leng

th (m

illion

km

) Brazil

2009201220150.000.400.801.20

Japan

2009201220150.00

1.00

2.00

3.00India

2009201220150.00

0.40

0.80

1.20France

ActualPredictedAsymptoteVisual assessment:Multilevel estimate95pc CIOther paths(non-roads)200920122015

0.00

0.40

0.80

Leng

th (m

illion

km

) Canada

2009201220150.000.250.500.75

Australia

2009201220150.00

0.50

1.00

1.50Germany

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

World

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

United States

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

China

gompertz

Russia

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Brazil

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Japan

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

India

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

France

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Canada

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Australia

gompertz

Germany

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Argentina

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Mexico

gompertz

Italy

gompertz

Spain

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Turkey

gompertz

United Kingdom

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Ukraine

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Nigeria

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Poland

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

South Africa

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Indonesia

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

IranActualDensity quintilesPredictedAsymptoteVisual assessment:Multilevel estimate95pc CI

gompertz

Thailand

gompertz

Sweden

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Finland

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

DR Congo

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Tanzania

gompertz

Saudi Arabia

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Philippines

justaline

Algeria

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Kazakhstan

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Romania

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Pakistan

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Peru

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Bolivia

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Greece

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Chile

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Portugal

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Egypt

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Belarus

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

South Korea

gompertz

Colombia

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Netherlands

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Norway

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

AustriaActualDensity quintilesPredictedAsymptoteVisual assessment:Multilevel estimate95pc CI

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Mozambique

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Morocco

gompertz

Czech Rep.

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Viet Nam

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Ireland

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Malaysia

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Iraq

gompertz

Belgium

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Uzbekistan

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Venezuela

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

New Zealand

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Mali

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Syria

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Myanmar

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Kenya

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Denmark

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Cameroon

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Ecuador

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Ethiopia

gompertz

Hungary

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Sudan

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Bulgaria

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

ZimbabweActualDensity quintilesPredictedAsymptoteVisual assessment:Multilevel estimate95pc CI

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Uganda

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Mongolia

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Nepal

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Angola

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Taiwan

gompertz

Switzerland

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Lithuania

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Sri Lanka

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Cote d'Ivoire

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Libya

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Zambia

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Ghana

gompertz

Serbia

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Latvia

gompertz

Croatia

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Paraguay

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Cuba

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Namibia

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Afghanistan

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Guinea

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Georgia

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Bangladesh

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

MalawiActualDensity quintilesPredictedAsymptoteVisual assessment:Multilevel estimate95pc CI

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Tunisia

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Burkina Faso

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Azerbaijan

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Madagascar

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Botswana

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Cambodia

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

North Korea

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Benin

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Senegal

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

UAE

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Estonia

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Guatemala

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Kyrgyzstan

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Slovakia

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Chad

gompertz

Bosnia and Herz.

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Oman

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

South Sudan

justaline

Slovenia

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Uruguay

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Dominican Rep.

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Costa Rica

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Puerto RicoActualDensity quintilesPredictedAsymptoteVisual assessment:Multilevel estimate95pc CI

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Moldova

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Sierra Leone

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Yemen

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Jordan

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Honduras

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Niger

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Laos

gompertz

Israel

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Somalia

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Togo

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Turkmenistan

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

C. African Rep.

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Tajikistan

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Congo

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Albania

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Nicaragua

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

El Salvador

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Armenia

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Burundi

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Liberia

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Haiti

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Lesotho

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

IcelandActualDensity quintilesPredictedAsymptoteVisual assessment:Multilevel estimate95pc CI

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Mauritania

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Papua New Guinea

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Lebanon

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Panama

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Rwanda

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Macedonia

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Palestine

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Jamaica

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Kosovo

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Kuwait

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Montenegro

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Swaziland

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Cyprus

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Gabon

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Qatar

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Trinidad

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Eritrea

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Gambia

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Western Sahara

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Fiji

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Bhutan

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Luxembourg

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

ReunionActualDensity quintilesPredictedAsymptoteVisual assessment:Multilevel estimate95pc CI

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Belize

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Bahamas

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Suriname

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Guyana

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

N. Cyprus

gompertz

New Caledonia

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Singapore

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Eq. Guinea

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Bahrain

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Guadeloupe

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Timor-Leste

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Mauritius

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Martinique

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Hong Kong

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Guinea-Bissau

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Brunei

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Cabo Verde

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Vanuatu

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Barbados

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Malta

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Fr. Guiana

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Fr. Polynesia

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

DjiboutiActualDensity quintilesPredictedAsymptoteVisual assessment:Multilevel estimate95pc CI

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Curacao

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Guam

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Aland Islands

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Solomon Isl.

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

US Virgin Isl.

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Comoros

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Tonga

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Saint Lucia

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Samoa

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Antigua

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Falkland Isl.

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Aruba

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Maldives

sigmoid

Isle of Man

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Grenada

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Faroe Islands

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Dominica

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

N. Mariana Isl.

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Cayman Isl.

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

St. Vincent

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

St. Kitts and Nevis

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Akrotiri Dhekelia

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

JerseyActualDensity quintilesPredictedAsymptoteVisual assessment:Multilevel estimate95pc CI

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Turks and Caicos

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Bonaire

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Kiribati

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Mayotte

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Sao Tome

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Bermuda

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Guernsey

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Greenland

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Seychelles

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Andorra

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Micronesia

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Macao

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Br. Virgin Isl.

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Liechtenstein

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Am. Samoa

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

San Marino

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Cook Isl.

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Palau

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

St. Maarten

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Anguilla

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Wallis and Futuna

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

St. Helena

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

St. MartinActualDensity quintilesPredictedAsymptoteVisual assessment:Multilevel estimate95pc CI

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

All deciles

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 6

sigmoid

Density decile 7

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

North America

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

All deciles

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 7

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

justaline

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

IDA only

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

All deciles

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 7

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

justaline

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

Low income

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

All deciles

gompertz

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 7

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

Middle income

gompertz

All deciles

gompertz

Density decile 1

gompertz

Density decile 2

gompertz

Density decile 3

gompertz

Density decile 4

gompertz

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 7

gompertz

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

IBRD only

gompertz

All deciles

gompertz

Density decile 1

gompertz

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 6

gompertz

Density decile 7

gompertz

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

Euro area

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

All deciles

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 7

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

Heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC)

gompertz

All deciles

gompertz

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 2

gompertz

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 7

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

Upper middle income

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

All deciles

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 3

gompertz

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 7

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

Latin America and Caribbean (developing only)

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

All deciles

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 1

gompertz

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 7

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

World

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

All deciles

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 7

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

justaline

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

IDA total

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

All deciles

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 7

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

Least developed countries: UN classification

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

All deciles

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 7

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

Fragile and conflict affected situations

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

All deciles

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 7

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

Central Europe and the Baltics

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

All deciles

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 7

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

Europe and Central Asia (developing only)

gompertz

All deciles

gompertz

Density decile 1

gompertz

Density decile 2

gompertz

Density decile 3

gompertz

Density decile 4

gompertz

Density decile 5

gompertz

Density decile 6

gompertz

Density decile 7

gompertz

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

IDA and IBRD total

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

All deciles

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 5

gompertz

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 7

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

Other small states

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

All deciles

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 7

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

High income

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

All deciles

gompertz

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 2

gompertz

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 7

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

Europe and Central Asia (all income levels)

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

All deciles

justaline

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 7

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

Africa

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

All deciles

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 7

gompertz

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

South Asia

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

All deciles

gompertz

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 4

justaline

Density decile 5

gompertz

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 7

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

Middle East and North Africa (developing only)

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

All deciles

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 3

gompertz

Density decile 4

gompertz

Density decile 5

gompertz

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 7

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

East Asia and Pacific (all income levels)

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

All deciles

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 7

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

IDA blend

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

All deciles

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 3

gompertz

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 7

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

Latin America and Caribbean (all income levels)

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

All deciles

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 7

gompertz

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

East Asia and Pacific (developing only)

gompertz

All deciles

gompertz

Density decile 1

gompertz

Density decile 2

gompertz

Density decile 3

gompertz

Density decile 4

gompertz

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 7

gompertz

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

European Union

gompertz

All deciles

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 7

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

Caribbean small states

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

All deciles

gompertz

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 6

gompertz

Density decile 7

gompertz

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

Low and middle income

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

All deciles

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 6

gompertz

Density decile 7

gompertz

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

Lower middle income

justaline

All deciles

gompertz

Density decile 1

gompertz

Density decile 2

justaline

Density decile 3

justaline

Density decile 4

justaline

Density decile 5

gompertz

Density decile 6

gompertz

Density decile 7

gompertz

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

Middle East and North Africa (all income levels)

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

All deciles

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 3

justaline

Density decile 4

justaline

Density decile 5

gompertz

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 7

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

Small states

gompertz

All deciles

gompertz

Density decile 1

gompertz

Density decile 2

gompertz

Density decile 3

gompertz

Density decile 4

gompertz

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 6

gompertz

Density decile 7

gompertz

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

High income: nonOECD

gompertz

All deciles

gompertz

Density decile 1

gompertz

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 4

justaline

Density decile 5

gompertz

Density decile 6

gompertz

Density decile 7

gompertz

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

Arab World

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

All deciles

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 2

gompertz

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 7

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

High income: OECD

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

All deciles

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 7

justaline

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

Pacific island small states

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

All deciles

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 7

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

Sub-Saharan Africa (all income levels)

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

All deciles

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 7

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

gompertz

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

Sub-Saharan Africa (developing only)

gompertz

All deciles

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 1

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 2

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 3

sigmoid-with-1-jumps

Density decile 4

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 5

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 6

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 7

sigmoid-with-2-jumps

Density decile 8

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-3-jumps

Density decile 9

2009 2012 2015

sigmoid-with-4-jumps

Density decile 10ActualPredictedAsymptote

OECD members