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FPC Future Powertrain 2018
Electrification of Off-Road and CV Powertrains –
Cutting Through the Hype
Alex Woodrow, Managing Director
Knibb, Gormezano and PartnersFebruary 2018
1 FPC 2018
2 FPC 2018
Summary Reports available at www.kgpauto.com/shop Bi-weekly Free Briefings at www.kgpauto.com
Acronyms
• AG – Agricultural machinery
• ADT/RDT – Articulated/Rigid Dump Truck
• BHL – Backhoe Loader
• CECE/CEMA – European Construction/Agricultural Equipment Manufacturers Associations Councils
• CSR – Corporate Social Responsibility
• CREX – Crawler Excavator
• CV – Commercial Vehicle
• GHG – Greenhouse Gas (CO2, CH4 etc.)
• ISC/ISM – In-service Compliance/Monitoring
• MEX – Mini Excavator
• OBD – Onboard Diagnostics
• WHL – Wheeled Loader
• RTLT – Rough Terrain Lift Truck (Telescopic) – Telehandler
• TIV – Total Industry Volume
3 FPC 2018
CV vs NRMM Annual Production Volume (Million)
• CV – Medium Truck, Heavy Truck, Heavy Bus
• NRMM – AG Tractors, Harvester, Construction Equipment, *Diesel Materials Handling, Niche AG
4 FPC 2018
2020
3.6
0.5
2.1
2016
3.1
0.4
1.7
2012
0.4
1.11.0
3.1
1.0
1.7
1.0
1.9
1.0
2.1
2020
0.1
3.7
0.5
3.0
0.4
1.8
2016
3.4
2012
0.8
0.0
0.4
0.0
Global CV Production >6T Global NRMM Production*
Source: KGP CV Engine/NRMM Engine Forecast Q3 17
Construction/ Earthmoving
Material Handling
Niche Agriculture
AgricultureHeavy Truck (16t+)
Heavy Bus (6t+)
Medium Truck (6-16t)
Technology Roadmaps
• Automotive Council Roadmaps
• Need to consider technology transfer between segments
5 FPC 2018
Drivers – Legislation Trends CV
6 FPC 2018
Euro VI
2015 2020 2025 2030
Europe
EPA 10U.S.
P-7Brazil
China VChina
BS IVIndia
JP 09Japan
P-8
China VI a China VI b
BS VI
JP 16
Euro VII?
BS VI/PEMS?
NOₓ NO₂?
PM₁₀ PM₂.₅?
ISC
LEZ ZEZ?
NOₓ Tightening?
CO₂ CO₂ Tightening?
?
CV Total Market Regulated vs Unregulated 2021 (000s)
Heavy Bus
468
15%6%
1,121
Heavy
2,009
93% 94%
7%
Medium
85%
Source: KGP NRMM Q2 2017 Engine Forecast
Euro IV or greater
Euro III or less
FPC 20187
By 2024 65%
will be Euro VI
or equivalent
But…
CO2 legislation
will start
becoming
stringent in all
major markets
Drivers - Air Quality Indicators – Europe and China
8 FPC 2018Source: AQICN.org/…
Road Transport
51%
Resuspension23%
NRMM8%
Industry3%
Other15%
London Emissions Inventory PM 2013
Drivers –
Are we at the inflection between the OEM/Operator and Social impact?
10 FPC 2018
Fuel Cost
Productivity
Noxious Emissions
Local Air Quality
Noise Emissions
Lifecycle Cost
CSR
GHG/CO2/Carbon Neutrality
Safety
Electrification
Hybridisation
Autonomy
Digitalisation
Competitiveness
Supply Chain Integration
Infrastructure
OEMs/Operators
Society
t?
t(-10-5y)
t(-5-0y)
TCO
Digitisation and Advanced Vehicle Technologies will Combine
NB Not exhaustive
11 FPC 2018
Telematics
Condition Based Maintenance
Smart Routing
PlatooningDigitisation
Thermal Management
Vehicle Technologies
Automated Manual
48W
Mild Hybrid
RCCI
99.5% NOX Conversion?
SCR on DPF
Solid Urea Systems
All Electric Range
(Last mile)
Electrical Accessories
V2V
CV Total Market – Environmental Scenario 2024 (TIV 3.8m Units)
13 FPC 2018
South America
84%
174
3%
ROW
7% 7%4% 7%6%
9% 7%
100%
81%75%
2%
C & E Europe
2,362
EU & EFTA
8%
5%
2%
228
2%
513
50%
89%
804
North America
39
1%2%
4%
37%
Asia Pacific
Source: KGP Q3 2017 GCVEAT
Mild HEV
Micro HEV
Electric
Full Parallel HEV
Full Parallel PHEV
Full Series HEV
Natural Gas
Diesel
000s
Drivers – Legislation Trends - NRMM
14 FPC 2018
Stage IV
2015 2020 2025 2030
Europe
Tier 4 FinalU.S.
Stage IIIABrazil
Stage IIIChina
Stage IIIAIndia
MLIT 3Japan
Stage IV
MLIT 4
Stage V
NOₓ NO₂?
PM₁₀ PM₂.₅?
ISC?
LEZ ZEZ?
NOₓ Tightening?
CO₂? CO₂ Tightening?
ISM
>56kW Tightening?
?
Stage V
Market - NRMM 2016 Production 000s by Power Band –TIV 3.0m Units
15 FPC 2018
56-75kW
602
62%
34%
11%
47%
43%
1%
390
2%
75-130kW
2% 3%
229
225-560kW130-225kW
73
44%
2%
48%
8%13%
714
11%
82%
<19kW
51%
901
49%
19-36kW
49%
34%
37-56kW
23%
0%
130
63%
3%
15%
Source: KGP NRMM Q2 2017 Engine Forecast
Agriculture
Niche Agriculture
Construction
Material Handling
Drivers – CECE/CEMA –‘4 Columns’
16 FPC 2018
Machine
Efficiency
e.g.
Load sensing
hydraulics
Electronic
engines
System
optimisation
Process
Efficiency
e.g.
Advanced tool
changes
Operating
Efficiency
e.g.
Driver training
and comfort
Systems
monitoring,
optimisation and
downtime
reduction
Alternative
Energy
e.g.
Hybridisation
Electrification
Natural Gas
Digitisation
Autonomy
Need for considerable further development
Drivers – Air Quality Fleet Renewal
17 FPC 2018Source: KGP Parc Model
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Millions
Estimated EU Equipment Population
Stage II or less Stage III Stage IIIB Stage IV Stage V
• Newer machines average hours are higher than older machines
• Smaller <56kW use disproportionately less fuel
Drivers - Fuel Consumption NRMM
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Fuel Consumption Litres Per Hour Medium Load
Low High
Electric single shift possible
18 FPC 2018Source: Caterpillar
Fuel cost #1 variable cost >20-30l (HCV ~30l/h)
Technology Options – Hybrid/Electric & Downsizing Potential
Application WHL ADT CREX MH AG
Energy Saving Potential
Engine ++ ++ + ++ +
Transmission ++ +++ - ++ ++
Hydraulics +++ + ++ ++ +
Duty Cycle
Load ++ + +++ ++ +++
Hours +/++ ++/+++ ++/+++ +++ +/++
Hybridisation/Electrification Potential
Mild Hybrid/48V +++ +++ +++ +++ +++
Series +++ - + +++ +
Electric +/- - +++/- +++ ++/-
Mechanical +++ + +++ +++ +
Downsizing +++ + +++ +++ ++
20 FPC 2018Source: KGP Analysis
Electrification NRMM - Current State of Alternative Fuels (NB not
exhaustive!)
Machine Diesel LPG/ Gasoline CNG/LNG/BG Electric Electric Drive Hybrid Fuel Cell
Forklift
AG Tractor
Combine Harvesters
Skid Steer Loaders
Backhoe Loaders
Wheel Loaders
Mini Excavators
Excavators
Crawler Dozers
Rigid Dump Trucks
Mining Excavators
Underground Mining
RTLT
21 FPC 2018
Dominant PrototypeWidespread Infancy/Declining Low Volume
Not to mention GTL, HVO, DME, 100% Bio-Diesel etc…….
Technology Availability - NRMM
22 FPC 2018
Mini Wheel Loader 14kWh BatteryMidi Excavator - 38kWh Battery Mini Site Dumper 7.3kWh Mini Excavator Diesel Engine APU
Caterpillar D7E Dozer Electric Drive Hitachi Electric Drive RDTDeere 644k Hybrid Wheel LoaderKomatsu 4th Gen Hybrid Excavator
Hybrid & Electric Suitability
23 FPC 2018
<56kW
CE/AG/MH
Fuel
Consumption
20l/h
50l/h
100l/h
56kW 130kW 560kW
Technology Options - Battery Sizing for Electric Applications
24 FPC 2018Source: KGP Estimates, JCB, Public Domain
20
20
100
150
300
1000
85
200
0 400 800 1200
MEX (2t)
Forklift (2t)
Tractor (50kW 5hrs)
Backhoe Loader (7t)
Tractor (130kW)
CREX (30t)
Tesla S (400km)
Mercedes eTruck (100kM)
8h Shift kWh • Efficiency improvements will
reduce battery size
• Hydraulics may be replaced
by motors
• Cost to fall below $200kWh
• Needs charging solutions
for mobile work sites
• Resale value/
• In-field service and
maintenance
Technology Options – Short Term
• CV Technology Carry Over
25 FPC 2018
Carry Over Technology Comments
High Stop-Start
48V
Electrical Accessories
High idling % in some appl.
Increasing power requirements
Packaging benefits
Medium Predictive Cruise Control
Combustion Control
Thermal Management
Downsizing
Advanced Aftertreatment
Adapt for transmission control
LTC for low load appl.
Engine, driveline opportunities
Low Waste Heat Recovery (ORC) No ram air cooling
None Aerodynamics
Source: KGP Preliminary Analysis
Technology Options - Transfer from Automotive - Status
Technology Transfer <56kW >56kW
Automotive Segment Light Vehicle – Passenger Car/LCV Heavy Commercial Vehicle
Batteries Modular packs possible
Additional durability/environmental
requirements
Higher per unit cost due to additional
durability/environmental requirements
Charging Can use light vehicle chargers Industrial charging system required
Motors Application specific Application specific
Power Electronics Possible direct transfer Application specific
Cost 1-2x 2-5x
Maturity Level Good Immature
26 FPC 2018
Mature Immature
Outlook - Summary
• Continued pressure on emissions limits globally– Potential post 2025 Stage VI/Euro VII
– NRMM CO2 regulation to follow CV
– Harmonisation difficult due to wide range of applications, urban vs extra-urban zones
• Market– Structural changes may be inevitable
– OEM, dealers/rental companies and operators business models all likely impacted
• Proliferation of low emission zones and CO2 will come– Some, but not strict impact on NRMM initially
– Carbon neutrality
– Corporate Social Responsibility
• Hybridisation, electrification and alternative fuels– System optimisation
– Increasing variance in the fuel mix
– Best fit applications to suit wide range of usage cases
– Technology transfer possible from automotive <56kW, CV above 56kW, but many technologies will be driven by the Construction segment
– Electrical accessories, turbocharging etc. likely to become more widespread
• Drivers will impact on whole of the supply chain– OEMs – Increased product variety
– Suppliers – System integration – powertrain incl. hybridisation
– Dealers/Rental Companies – supply productivity and energy not machines and fuel
– Fuel Companies – diversification of fuel types
– Service Providers – Managing digitalisation across brands and systems
27 FPC 2018
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