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Fossil free road transport? Trends and ideas in Sweden
JOINT WORKSHOP WITH IEA BIOENERGY
Infrastructure Compatible Transport Fuels
Olle Hådell
Sustainable supply of energy to transportation is a crucial issue.
• Transportation is a cornerstone in a modern
society.
• But climate change is a real threat/ Use of fossil
fuels has to be reduced to a fraction of the
volumes today • How can a 2-degree target be combined with
mobility worldwide?
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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
An
nu
al
pro
du
cti
on
(G
b/y
r)
Annual productionEUR=1800 GbEUR=2000 GbEUR=2200 GbEUR=2400 GbEUR=2600 Gb
Source: EIA, Energy Information AdministrationEUR: Estimated Ultimately Recoverable (global oil)
Gb = Gigabarrel
Means of promoting EEC´s in Sweden (environmentally enhanced cars)
Incentives addressing the cars favoured ´ Tax exemption for 5 years for EEV´s Biofuels, efficiency, ´ Procurement of vehicles purchased by govermental authorities Biofuels, ´ Exemption from congestion taxes in Stockholm Biofuels ´ Free parking in bigger cities Biofuels, efficiency ´ Reduced taxation of car benefit Biofuels, electricity ´ Vehicle taxation based on CO2 emissions Efficiency ´ Obligation for fuelling stations to provide biofuels E-85
´ Incentives addressing the fuels ´ Exemption of energy- and CO2-taxation for biofuels Biofuels ´ Support to pilot plants Lignocellulose, gasification
Fossile free road transportation - is that possible ?
´ Yes, if you can combine:
´ More efficient vehicles
´ Biofuels
´ Electrification
´ Change of transportation modes
´ Development of the society
Olle Hådell
To achieve this, there is a need for comprehensive strategies!
Energy efficiency
Renewable energy
Transport efficient society
Source: SOU 2013:84
More efficient cars
Driving forces:
´ EU directives:
130 g CO2/km 2012 -2015; 95 g CO2/km 2020
´ Offers common rules for all companies selling cars in Europe. Efficiency has become a highly prioritized issue.
´ Behaviour of Swedish buyers: ´ Sweden can´t affect the type of cars produced. But Swedish
incentives affect the selection of cars sold in Sweden.
Olle Hådell
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
80 130 180 230 280 330
Shar
e of
tota
l veh
icle
s
Tail pipe CO2 emissions (g/km)/ e.g. fuel consumption
Sweden 2007 Sweden 2010
A radical shift in Swedish car sales….
… caused by incentives, technical progress and image
EU trends
100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Kold
ioxi
du
tslä
pp
(g
/km
) Tyskland
Finland
Sverige
Storbritannien
EU-15
Frankrike
Danmark
Olle Hådell
”Sweden was the bad guy”
Germany
Finland
Sweden
UK
EU-15
France
Dennmark
Source: SOU 2013:84
To get more efficient trucks is more complicated..
40 ton vehicle in real life)
Continously reduced fuel consumption
No development in fuel consumption
Heavy vehicles are a real challenge !
Biofuels
All links in the whole chain from well to wheel must be considered
´ Access to sustainable feedstock
´ Efficient and economical viable production
´ Appropriate number of retail stations
´ Access to engines designed for the fuel
´ Acceptance from the end user
Olle Hådell
Substitution of fossile diesel oil is crucial!
• Already shortage of Diesel oil in Europe
• Higher share of dieselcars due to regulations of fuel consumption.
• Aviation fuels and diesel oil are competitors
• Environmental marine regulations will raise demand for diesel oil?
´ Biofuels ought to be be used
in heavy vehicles
´ Biomethane
´ Synthetic diesel oil
´ Dimethyleter (DME)
´ Electrification of roads….
Threats Solutions
Swedens attempt to develope an E-85 market has failed
´ The incentives were to costly
´ Producing ethanol from woodchips was a bad idea
´ The Swedish market is to small to maintain an development for E-85 engines
Olle Hådell
Main pathways for biofuel development
Low blends in gasoline
Flex fuel cars
Cellulosic
Gasification of
Black liqour
Ethanol
Veg. oils/ Lignine
HVO/ syndiesel Biomethane
DME
Heavy vehicles
Diesel blending
Gasification of biomass
Methanol
Olle Hådell
Source: SOU 2013:84
• Battery costs are still a bottleneck
• City buses will be the first adaptors
• Carpooling and other local fleets comes next
• Access to charging points is cruicial • Can continous or intermittent
charging be realised?
Electrification
Olle Hådell
Olle Hådell
Reducing use of fossile fuels in road transport in Sweden
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2010 2030 modest 2030 op3mis3c
Scenarios 2030
Fossile
Biofuels
Electrifica3on
Efficient cars
Development of society
Source: SOU 2013:84
Conclusions ´ Shortage of diesel fuel is likely. Renewable dieselsubstitute is cruical
especially for heavy vehicles ´ Engine development is costly and need large harmonized markets
to be profitable. ´ The ability of the carfleets to absorbe dedicated fuels as ethanol,
methanol, DME etc. is limited. Drop in is a ”dream”. ´ Three types of biofuel production have to be developed:
´ Fuels from gasification ´ Drop in fuels from lignine
´ Ethanol from cellulose
´ A clear long term target is cruical. The development of biofuels have to be continous and comprehensive.
Olle Hådell
Thank you!
Olle Hådell
ollehadell@telia.com
+46 70 563 71 92
Olle Hådell
Means of promoting EEC´s in Sweden (environmentally enhanced cars) Incentives addressing the cars ´ Incentives for EEC´s bought by private car buyers ´ Tax exemption for 5 years for EEV´s ´ Procurement of vehicles purchased by govermental authorities ´ Exemption from congestion taxes in Stockholm ´ Free parking in bigger cities ´ Reduced taxation of car benefit ´ Vehicle taxation based on CO2 emissions ´ Obligation for fuelling stations to provide biofuels
´ Incentives addressing the fuels ´ Exemption of energy- and CO2-taxation for biofuels ´ Support to pilot plants
Means of promoting EEC´s in Sweden (environmentally enhanced cars) Incentives addressing the cars ´ Incentives for EEC´s bought by private car buyers ´ Tax exemption for 5 years for EEV´s ´ Procurement of vehicles purchased by govermental authorities ´ Exemption from congestion taxes in Stockholm ´ Free parking in bigger cities ´ Reduced taxation of car benefit ´ Vehicle taxation based on CO2 emissions ´ Obligation for fuelling stations to provide biofuels
´ Incentives addressing the fuels ´ Exemption of energy- and CO2-taxation for biofuels ´ Support to pilot plants
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