First Quarter 2012 (1Q12) - Grupo Senda 1q12... · 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P 2.3x 1.7x...

First Quarter 2012 (1Q12)

Earnings Release

May 10, 2012

GSA - Revenue

840

874

1Q11 1Q12

4%

Revenue by Segment

Passenger Personnel

653665

1Q11 1Q12

187

209

1Q11 1Q12

2%12%

157180 191

237

145

191

233 243

172

20%21% 21%

25%

17%

21%

24%25%

20%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12

GSA Performance

EBIT EBITDA & Margin

66

95

1Q11 1Q12

43%

Absence of Easter Season on both 1Q11 & 1Q12

Passenger EBITDA & Margin

94

120

14%

18%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1Q11 1Q12

EBITDA Margin

28%

Leverage on senior management experience to overcome market conditions

Personnel Revenue

187

209

1Q11 1Q12

12%

This segment keeps its growing trend

Personnel Segment Presence

Current Presence:

►Coahuila

►San Luis Potosí

►Tamaulipas

►Nuevo León

In analysis:

►Jalisco

►Chihuahua

►Querétaro

►Aguascalientes

Personnel

Productivity Revenue per Kilometer

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

ene-0

9

mar-

09

may-0

9

jul-09

sep-0

9

nov-0

9

ene-1

0

mar-

10

may-1

0

jul-10

sep-1

0

nov-1

0

ene-1

1

mar-

11

may-1

1

jul-11

sep-1

1

nov-1

1

ene-1

2

mar-

12

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

11.00

11.50

12.00

ene-0

9

mar-

09

may-0

9

jul-09

sep

-09

nov-0

9

ene-1

0

mar-

10

may-1

0

jul-10

sep

-10

nov-1

0

ene-1

1

mar-

11

may-1

1

jul-11

sep

-11

nov-1

1

ene-1

2

mar-

12

5% Price increase.

Previous Previous

Guidance

►Revenues 2012: ~8% YOY

►EBITDA 2012 Margin >25% / Revenues

►EBITDA 2012: 21% YOY

Recent Appointment

Prior to becoming CEO, Mr. Contreras served as Chief

Financial Officer at Grupo Senda. He also held various

finance and management positions at

Cemex, McKinsey & Company and Grupo Financiero

Banorte.

Mr. Contreras holds an Engineering Degree from

Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de

Monterrey (ITESM) and a MBA from Columbia

University.

José Manuel ContrerasFormer Head of Finance / Current

Chief Executive Officer

GSA - Revenue

840

874

1Q11 1Q12

4%

GSA - Kilometers

65

59

1Q11 1Q12

9%

157180

191

237

145

191

233 243

172

20%21% 21%

25%

17%

21%

24%25%

20%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12

GSA Performance

EBIT EBITDA & Margin

66

95

1Q11 1Q12

43%

Passenger Revenue and EBITDA & Margin

Revenue EBITDA & Margin

94

120

14%

18%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1Q11 1Q12

EBITDA Margin

28%

653665

1Q11 1Q12

2%

Passenger - Kilometers

46

39

1Q11 1Q12

15%

Passenger Revenue and EBITDA & Margin

Revenue EBITDA & Margin

94

120

14%

18%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1Q11 1Q12

EBITDA Margin

28%

653665

1Q11 1Q12

2%

Personnel Revenue & EBITDA

Revenue EBITDA

187

209

1Q11 1Q12

12%

51 52

1Q11 1Q12

1%

Financial Ratios

Net Debt / EBITDA Cobertura Coverage

3.0x

4.5x

5.2x

3.4x

3.7x

3.2x

2.3x

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P

2.3x

1.7x

1.4x

2.0x 2.1x2.2x

2.9x

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q12 2012 P

Liability Management: Liquidity

Short Term Debt 2011 vs 1Q12 Short Term Debt by Quarter 2012

495

400355 355

436

95

4581

2011 Payments 1Q12

Refinanced ST Debt 1Q13

1Q12

ST Debt Payments 1Q13 ST Debt Refinanced

28%

436

403 392

354

495

313 305276 270

237

182

132

127 122

117

2011 1Q12 2Q12 E 3Q12 E 2012 E

CMLTD Banks

-28%

313 305276 276 252

182

132127

2011 1Q12 2Q12 E 3Q12 E 2012

CMLTD Banks

Liability Management

CapEx Lines: Refinancing Short Term Debt

Short Term Debt by Quarter 2012Short Term Debt by Quarter 2012

Post 3Q Refinancing

28

In addition, the Company will use CapEx lines to refinance short term debt

495

436

403 392

354

495

436403

CapEx lines

utilization

313 305276 270

237

182

132127 122

117

2011 1Q12 2Q12 E 3Q12 E 2012 E

CMLTD Banks

Free Cash Flow

Concept (Ps millions) 1Q12

EBITDA 171.8

Net Working Capital -24.9

Taxes -1.4

Other Expenses -3.2

Operating Cash Flow 142.3

Financial Expense -41.0

CapEx (Replacement) -2.6

Free Cash Flow 98.8

30

1,922

ST 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Leases ST Banks Bond @12.81

Bond’s Alternatives – New Bond

32

305

214123

2,038

69

384 384 384 384 384

1,922

ST 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Syndicated Loan Leases ST Banks Bond @12.81

Bond’s Alternatives – Syndicated Loan

33

305214

123

501 453