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Famine Early Warning Systems Network
July 2, 2015Dakar, Senegal
WEST AFRICA FOOD SECURITY OUTLOOK
July to September 2015
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Presentation outline
FEWS NET’s analytical process and orientation to the region
Drivers of current regional food insecurity
Food security outcomes for July to September 2015
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Key messages
Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity is likely in north-eastern Nigeria and amongst small populations in the Central African Republic and Mauritania. Humanitarian assistance is needed to avoid large consumption gaps.
Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity will be present in many other areas of West Africa.
Projected outcomes are partially dependent on the performance of the current rainy season and current rainfall models are showing mixed forecasts. If a poor rainy season were to occur, food security outcomes could worsen.
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The scenario development approach
Source: FEWS NET
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PHASE 1 Minimal
Households are meeting their basic food and nonfood needs without unsustainable coping strategies.
PHASE 2 Stressed
Household food consumption is minimally adequate. Households are unable to afford some essential nonfood expenditures without unsustainable coping strategies.
PHASE 3 Crisis
Households face food consumption gaps or are only meeting minimal food needs through unsustainable coping strategies.
URGENT ACTION
REQUIREDPHASE 4
Emergency
Households face extreme food consumption gaps or are experiencing extreme loss of livelihood assets that will likely lead to food consumption gaps.
PHASE 5 Famine
Households have a near complete lack of food and/or other basic needs. Starvation, death, and destitution are evident.
!Phase classification would likely be worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance.
IPC 2.0 area phase classification
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Seasonal calendar in the Sahel
Source: FEWS NET
Outlook period
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CURRENT FOOD SECURITY CONTEXT
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Prices similar to or below the five-year average
Source: FEWS NET
May 2015 millet prices compared to the five-year average
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Lingering economic impacts of Ebola
Source: World Bank, IPA, Statistics Sierra Leone
Employment rates in Sierra Leone
LFS: July – August 2014; round 1: November 2014; round 2: January/February 2015; round 3: May 2015
Hours worked last week amongst those employed
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Conflict continues in Nigeria and CAR
Source: FEWS NET
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Poor start of the 2015 season in various areas
Areas where June cumulative rainfall was less than 80% of normal
Source: FEWS NET
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Poor start of the 2015 season in various areas
Areas where the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is less than 95% of normal
Source: FEWS NET
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Poor start of the 2015 season in various areas
Areas where the evaporative transpiration anomaly (Eta) is less than 90% of average difference vegetation index (NDVI) is less than 95% of
normal
Source: FEWS NET
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Poor start of the 2015 season in various areas
Areas where all three measures were below normal
Source: FEWS NET
Ground reports indicate:
Significant delays (3-4 weeks) of agricultural activities in the Sudanian zone
Reduced seasonal agricultural work incomes for poor households
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Other key drivers Below-average availability
of pasture in pockets across the northern Sahel
Localized areas of below-average household food stocks and livestock incomes due to poor 2014/15 rainfall
Average to above-average off-season cropping activities
Regular supply of imported rice and wheat from international markets
Avian influenza negatively impacting poultry farmers in Burkina Faso, Nigeria
NDVI maximum anomaly, 2014
Source: USGS/FEWS NET
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Food security outcomes, July to Sept 2015
Source: FEWS NET
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Events that could change the Outlook Late start to the rainy season across the northern
Sahel
Below-average rainfall or poor temporal distribution of the rains
Atypically extensive damage from locusts or other pests
Drastic increase in new Ebola cases, or spread to neighboring countries
Significant increase in humanitarian assistance levels
Aggravation of current conflicts with an increase of displaced persons
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For more informationLaouali Ibrahim
Regional Technical Manager, West Africa
librahim@fews.net
+227-20-37-36-88
Abdou Karim Ouedraogo
Food Security Analyst, CILSS/TAC, West Africa
aouedraogo@fews.net
+226-25-49-96-00
To subscribe to FEWS NET’s reports, please visit www.fews.net
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Mixed seasonal forecasts for July to September
Multi-Model Probability Forecast for Precipitation, Issued June
2015
Source: IRI
Probability (most likely category of precipitation), Issued June 2015
Precipitation Standard Anomalies, Issued June 2015
Source: NOAA/CPC
Source: ECMWF
Probability of below-normal precipitation, Issued June 2015
Source: UK Met
Probability (most likely category of precipitation), Issued May 26,
2015
Source: ACMAD
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