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R e p o r t o n t h e
Symposium on Extreme Weather:Impacts, Challenges and Adaptations
Ottawa, OntarioApril 23- 24, 2014
The Canadian Climate Forum
The Canadian Climate Forum is a non-governmental agency dedicated to improving
understanding of weather and climate in the Earth system. It collaborates with partner
agencies and individuals to accelerate the uptake and use of weather and climate
knowledge to serve the needs of society and the economy.
Acknowledgments
The Canadian Climate Forum acknowledges and warmly thanks the sponsors of the
Symposium, in particular, the Pacifi c Institute for Climate Solutions, the Embassy of
France and the Insurance Bureau of Canada. The Forum also acknowledges the many
participating organizations and individuals who made in-kind contributions both to the
organization of the event and its successful outcome. Special thanks to Bob Sandford for
his work on this report.
AMBASSADE DE FRANCE AU CANADAService pour la science et la technologie
Canadian Climate Forum
55 Laurier Avenue East, Offi ce 10148, Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6N5 CANADA Phone: 613 238-2223
www.climateforum.ca
Table of Contents
Executive Summary 2
Sommaire 7
Introduction 12
Information session on IPCC reports and their
relevance to Canada 14
Keynote Address 19
Summaries of sessions
• Regional Impacts 21
• Health 29
• Science 35
• Adaptations 39
• Insurance 50
• Emergency Management & Preparedness 52
• Global Implications 55
Discussion 57
Conclusions 58
Appendices
• Agenda 60
• Biographical Notes on Speakers 64
• Text of the keynote address by Scott Vaughan 75
• List of delegates 83
EXTREME WEATHER: IMPACT S, CHALLENGES AND ADAPTATIONS
CANADIAN CLIMATE FORUM
Executive Summary
Extreme weather events don’t just damage property. They disrupt lives, impact
economies and alter and stress ecosystems. Extreme events also have health, insurance
and liability impacts. We are likely to see 2˚C to 5˚C of warming over this century,
and North America will not be immune to the effects. Adaptation and mitigation are
therefore necessary.
On April 23-24, 2014 the Canadian Climate Forum brought together experts from
several sectors to examine the incidence, impacts and challenges posed by extreme
weather events; the challenges it raises - and how we can prepare for, or adapt to
it, to minimize its often devastating effects. The symposium looked at changing
global conditions, the effects of extreme weather on Canadian society, emergency
management and adaptive measures. It also considered emerging needs.
The symposium was timely, as 2013 and 2014 have been years of costly and
disruptive weather for many Canadians.
A WORLD IN TRANSITION
The recently published Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth
Assessment Report offers a number of warnings. Sea level rise is expected to
affect hundreds of millions of people living in coastal areas. Higher carbon dioxide
concentrations are altering the chemistry of oceans many times faster than what occurs
naturally, which, in combination with over-fishing, will reduce fish stocks. This, in addition
to growing populations, will require a 70% increase in food production during the
century.
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There will also be significant impacts on water. For each 1˚C temperature increase
there will be a 20% decrease in the amount of fresh water available to a significant part
of the global population. Warming will also cause the hydrological cycle to intensify.
The frequency, intensity and duration of extreme weather events are already increasing.
THE IMPACTS OF EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
Fresh water is both a mediator and a transmitter of climate change effects. Liquid
water, water vapour, snow and ice transmit climate change impacts across the country
and across ecological and political boundaries. We have begun to witness floods and
droughts in the same basin in the same year. Drought represents a great concern in a
changing climate especially as it relates to, and impacts, food security.
There are more of us, and greater prosperity, which is making extreme events more
costly. Extreme weather events also cover larger areas and persist longer, making
recovery slower and more costly.
CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON HUMAN HEALTH
Climate change has been identified as the single greatest threat to human health in the
21st century. With a projected warming of 2˚C to 5˚C we should expect mortalities to
rise. The urban heat island effect has already become a major public health issue, even
in Canada; and vulnerable groups include a wide range of individuals.
Having alert systems in place is one thing; actually dealing with extreme situations is
another. In prolonged emergencies, ethical questions can revolve around who should be
rescued first.
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THE SCIENCE
March 2014 represented the 349th consecutive month with above average
temperatures. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture to energize and fuel extreme
weather events. This will make wet places wetter while increasing evaporation generally
which will make dry places drier. Arctic sea ice is disappearing and the Arctic is
warming two to three times faster than the rest of the world. The loss of Arctic sea ice
and the reduction of the extent and duration of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere
are reducing the temperature gradient between the pole and the tropics. This is
affecting the behaviour of the jet stream in the Northern Hemisphere. As the jet stream
slows and its trajectory widens, weather patterns persist, prolonging very wet or cold or
hot, dry conditions.
EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS
More attention needs to be paid to areas in which people find themselves repeatedly
in harm’s way. Risks can be reduced by better communications; by discouraging
development and activities that increase risk and by the appropriate sharing of risks
between jurisdictions and governments. A renewed focus on community resilience and
sustainability is needed. Greater adaptive capacity also has to be developed at local
and regional levels. Building codes have to be altered, land-use plans improved and
professional engineering and architectural practice must be informed by measures and
standards that incorporate projected conditions.
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ADAPTATION
We can build more resilient homes if we use science as a foundation for action. Builders
in Canada are testing and sharing new ideas and slowly enshrining them in building
codes and standards. Effective adaptation strategies include inter-governmental
collaboration; stakeholder engagement, especially with professionals in planning and
engineering; on-going assessment of risk; strategic action and the ‘mainstreaming’ of
adaptive behaviours. Of critical importance are updated plans, more accurate flood
maps tied to better zoning, funding support for municipal adaptation efforts and
stronger central leadership.
THE GLOBAL BUSINESS IMPLICATIONS OF EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
The risks to business globally associated with extreme weather events are real and
can directly affect reputation, bottom line and enterprise value. The business case
for investing in climate resilience is evident. In an increasingly competitive global
environment, nations that invest most effectively in preparing for weather and climate
threats will have an important competitive, economic advantage and a competitive edge
in emerging opportunities.
In Canada climate-related risks will affect all economic sectors. Extreme weather and
disaster liability could affect debt reduction efforts and figure in future elections.
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CONCLUSIONS
The problems associated with extreme weather events are expected to multiply.
The effects of more frequent, intense and longer-duration events such as floods
and droughts will have increasing impacts on personal safety, property damage,
infrastructure renewal, the reliability of transportation and energy distribution, the cost
of insurance, public and private liability, mental and physical health and well-being,
economic productivity and social and political stability.
Canadians will all have to adapt. Individuals will need to focus on personal
preparedness; communities on resilience and sustainability; regions on planning
and adaptation; and governments on public education, communication, disaster
mitigation, better links to emerging science; and proactive support for adaptation
measures. Professions like engineering, architecture and urban planning will have to
incorporate different, forward-looking parameters into the design and function of our
built environment. New levels of emergency preparedness and management will have to
be conceived. Businesses will have to incorporate investments in climate resilience into
their strategic planning; and national governments will have to invest in both adaptation
and mitigation, to retain competitive advantage in a world that is about to become very
different from the one we used to know.
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Sommaire
Les événements météorologiques extrêmes ne causent pas uniquement des dommages
matériels. Ils perturbent la vie des gens, affectent l’économie et agressent et modifient
les écosystèmes. Ils ont également des répercussions relatives à la santé, aux assurances
et à la responsabilité. Au cours du présent siècle, nous assisterons probablement à
une augmentation des températures de 2 à 5˚C, et l’Amérique du Nord ne sera pas
épargnée. Des mesures d’atténuation et d’adaptation doivent donc être prises.
Les 23 et 24 avril 2014, le Forum canadien du climat a réuni des spécialistes de
plusieurs secteurs pour examiner la fréquence et les répercussions des événements
météorologiques extrêmes ainsi que les enjeux connexes, plus précisément les défis qu’ils
présentent et les mesures à prendre pour se préparer ou s’adapter afin de limiter leurs
effets souvent dévastateurs. Les discussions ont porté sur le changement des conditions
à l’échelle mondiale, les effets des conditions météorologiques extrêmes sur la société
canadienne, la gestion des situations d’urgence et les mesures d’adaptation. Les
nouveaux besoins ont également été abordés. Le symposium tombait à point nommé :
des événements météorologiques perturbateurs et coûteux ont affecté de nombreux
Canadiens en 2013 et 2014.
UN MONDE EN TRANSITION
Le cinquième rapport d’évaluation du Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur
l’évolution du climat (GIEC) publié récemment tire plusieurs sonnettes d’alarme. Des
centaines de millions d’habitants de zones côtières devraient être touchés par l’élévation
du niveau de la mer. Les concentrations plus élevées de dioxyde de carbone modifient
les caractéristiques chimiques des océans beaucoup plus rapidement qu’en conditions
normales, entraînant, en contexte de surpêche, une réduction des populations de
poissons. Or, la croissance démographique imposera dans ce contexte d’accroître de
70 % la production de nourriture au cours du siècle.
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Des répercussions importantes sont aussi attendues sur les ressources en eau. Chaque degré
Celsius d’augmentation de la température s’accompagne d’une diminution de 20 % de la
quantité d’eau douce à laquelle a accès une partie importante de la population mondiale.
Le réchauffement entraîne également l’intensification du cycle hydrologique. Déjà, la
fréquence, l’intensité et la durée des événements météorologiques extrêmes sont en hausse.
RÉPERCUSSIONS DES ÉVÉNEMENTS MÉTÉOROLOGIQUES EXTRÊMES
L’eau douce intervient à la fois dans la médiation et la transmission des effets des
changements climatiques. L’eau, qu’elle soit à l’état liquide, gazeux (vapeur) ou solide
(neige et glace), transmet ces effets à l’échelle du pays et au-delà des frontières écologiques
et politiques. On a commencé à observer des inondations et des sécheresses sévissant
dans un même bassin au cours d’une même année. La sécheresse est un important sujet de
préoccupation dans un climat changeant, en particulier ses conséquences pour la sécurité
alimentaire.
Comme nous sommes plus nombreux et plus prospères, les événements météorologiques
extrêmes sont plus coûteux. Ils sont aussi d’une ampleur et durée plus grandes, et le
rétablissement est donc plus lent et plus dispendieux.
EFFETS DES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES SUR LA SANTÉ HUMAINE
Le changement du climat est considéré comme la plus importante menace pour la santé
humaine au 21e siècle. Le réchauffement prévu de 2 à 5˚C devrait accroître la mortalité.
L’effet « îlot de chaleur urbain » suscite déjà des préoccupations sérieuses pour la santé
humaine, même au Canada, et les groupes vulnérables comprennent un large éventail de
personnes.
Disposer de systèmes d’alerte est une chose; c’en est une autre que de réagir aux situations
extrêmes dans la réalité. Lors de situations d’urgence prolongées, des questions éthiques
peuvent se poser concernant la priorité à accorder au cours des opérations de sauvetage.
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LA SCIENCE
Mars 2014 a été le 349e mois consécutif où la température a été supérieure à la
moyenne. Une atmosphère plus chaude retient davantage l’humidité qui énergise
et alimente les phénomènes météorologiques extrêmes. Cela a pour effet de rendre
plus humides les endroits qui le sont déjà et, en augmentant l’évaporation de façon
générale, d’assécher davantage les endroits déjà secs. Dans l’Arctique, qui se réchauffe
de deux à trois fois plus vite que le reste de la planète, la glace de mer disparaît. La
perte de la glace arctique et la réduction de la surface et de la durée d’enneigement
dans l’hémisphère Nord entraînent une diminution du gradient de température entre
le pôle et les tropiques qui a des répercussions sur le comportement du courant-jet
dans l’hémisphère. Plus celui-ci ralentit et s’élargit, plus les conditions météorologiques
persistent, ce qui prolonge les périodes de temps très humide ou très froid ou encore de
temps chaud et sec.
PRÉPARATION AUX SITUATIONS D’URGENCE
Une plus grande attention doit être portée aux endroits où des personnes, de façon
répétée, se retrouvent en danger. Il est possible de réduire les risques en améliorant les
communications, en décourageant le développement et les activités qui augmentent le
risque et en veillant à un partage approprié des risques entre les autorités responsables
et les gouvernements. La résilience et la viabilité des collectivités doivent faire l’objet
d’une attention renouvelée. Il faut également développer davantage la capacité
d’adaptation aux échelles locale et régionale. Les codes du bâtiment doivent être
modifiés, les plans d’aménagement du territoire doivent être améliorés, et les pratiques
dans les domaines de l’ingénierie et de l’architecture doivent être encadrées par des
mesures et des normes qui tiennent compte des conditions prévues.
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ADAPTATION
Il est possible de bâtir des habitations plus résistantes en s’appuyant sur la science.
Des constructeurs canadiens mettent à l’épreuve et partagent de nouvelles idées et
ils les intègrent lentement dans les codes et les normes du bâtiment. Les stratégies
efficaces pour l’adaptation comprennent la collaboration intergouvernementale,
la mobilisation des parties intéressées (ingénieurs et planificateurs en particulier),
l’évaluation régulière des risques, la prise de mesures stratégiques et l’intégration des
comportements d’adaptation. Une extrême importance doit être accordée à la mise
à jour des plans, à la cartographie plus précise des zones inondables (combinée à
une révision du zonage), au financement d’initiatives d’adaptation municipales et au
développement d’un leadership central plus fort.
THE GLOBAL BUSINESS IMPLICATIONS OF EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
Les risques que présentent à l’échelle mondiale les événements météorologiques
extrêmes pour les entreprises sont réels; ils peuvent toucher leur réputation, leur
rentabilité et leur valeur. La rentabilité des investissements pour améliorer la résilience
climatique est évidente. Dans un environnement mondial de plus en plus concurrentiel,
les pays qui investissent plus efficacement pour se préparer aux menaces liées à la
météo ou au climat disposeront d’un avantage économique et concurrentiel important
et seront plus aptes à saisir les nouvelles opportunités.
Au Canada, les risques reliés au climat touchent tous les secteurs économiques.
La responsabilité en cas d’événements météorologiques extrêmes et de catastrophes
pourrait compromettre les efforts de réduction de la dette et devenir un enjeu électoral.
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CONCLUSIONS
Les problèmes associés aux événements météorologiques extrêmes vont
vraisemblablement se multiplier. La fréquence, l’intensité et la durée accrues
d’événements tels que les sécheresses et les inondations auront des répercussions
de plus en plus importantes à de nombreux égards : sécurité personnelle, dommages
matériels, renouvellement des infrastructures, fiabilité des transports et de la
distribution de l’énergie, coût d’assurance, responsabilité publique et privée, santé et
bien-être mental et physique, productivité économique et stabilité sociale et politique.
Les Canadiens devront tous s’adapter. Ils devront individuellement veiller à leur
préparation; les collectivités devront se préoccuper de leur résilience et de leur
viabilité; les régions devront porter attention à la planification et à l’adaptation; et
les gouvernements devront accorder un intérêt particulier à l’éducation du public,
aux communications, à l’atténuation des catastrophes, à l’intégration des avancées
scientifiques et au soutien proactif des efforts d’adaptation. Les ingénieurs, les
architectes et les urbanistes devront inclure différents paramètres prospectifs dans
la conception et le fonctionnement de notre environnement bâti. Il faudra concevoir
de nouveaux niveaux de préparation et de gestion pour les situations d’urgence. Les
entreprises devront prévoir dans leur planification stratégique des investissements pour
améliorer la résilience climatique. Enfin, les gouvernements nationaux devront investir à
la fois dans l’adaptation et l’atténuation pour conserver un avantage concurrentiel dans
un monde en voie de se transformer radicalement.
Introduction
On April 23 and 24, 2014 the Canadian Climate Forum held a symposium on the theme
Extreme Weather: Impacts, Challenges and Adaptations. The event was held
at Ottawa’s Fairmont Chateau Laurier Hotel.
Representatives of several sectors examined the incidence and impact of severe weather
and provided insights into extreme events and the economic, infrastructural and health
challenges they raise. Participants discussed measures to develop resilience and to
safeguard people and businesses.
The Symposium was preceded by an information session for the public and the
media, held at the University of Ottawa. Panelists presented key findings from the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report on the
state of the world’s climate, and implications for Canada.
The Symposium brought together experts from a range of fields, as well as stakeholders,
the public and media, to consider the incidence and severity of extreme weather and
its impacts on resources and the economy, on the health sector, on built infrastructure
and on cities and regions. Speakers included scientists, agency executives, policy and
decision makers from the public and private sectors. Presentations and discussions
provided insights into extreme events and addressed the economic, infrastructural and
health challenges they raise. Participants also discussed measures to develop resilience
and to safeguard communities and businesses.
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Speakers included:• Scott Vaughan, President & CEO, International Institute for Sustainable
Development • Bob Sandford, EPCOR Chair of the Canadian Partnership Initiative in support of the UN Water for Life Decade • John Pomeroy, Canada Research Chair, Water Resources & Climate Change, Univ. Saskatchewan • David Phillips, Senior Climatologist, Environment Canada • Jennifer Francis, Research Professor, Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University • Francis Zwiers, Director, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium • Ron Stewart, Professor, Department of Environment and Geography, University of Manitoba • Peter Berry, Senior Policy Analyst, Climate Change and Health Office, Health Canada • Iqbal Kalsi, Manager, London-Middlesex Health Unit • Emmanuelle Cadot, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Montpellier, France • Sheri Fink, New York Times; author of Five Days at Memorial, (life and death at a New Orleans hospital in the wake of Hurricane Katrina) • Don Lemmen, Manager, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Division, Natural Resources Canada • Paul Kovacs, Executive Director, Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction • Jacinthe Clavet-Gaumont, Coordinator, Energy Research Group, Ouranos, Quebec • Deborah Harford, Executive Director, Adaptation to Climate Change Team, Simon Fraser University • Chris White, Vice-President, Insurance Bureau of Canada • Michel Girard, Vice-president, Standards Council of Canada • Ernest MacGillivray, Executive Director, Emergency Services, New Brunswick • Barney Owens, Director - Response, Office of the Fire Marshal & Emergency Management, Ontario • David Greenall, Senior Manager, ERS/Sustainability, Deloitte
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Information session on IPCC Reports and their Relevance to Canada
On April 22, 2014 the Canadian Climate Forum hosted a special session for the public
and the media, to present and explain the significance to Canada of recently released
reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The reports were
part of the agency’s Fifth Assessment Report on the State of the World’s Climate and
included summary reports on:
• The Physical Science Basis (released October 2013)
• Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (released March 2014); and
• Mitigation of Climate Change (released April 2014).
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The IPCC information session, held at the University of Ottawa, was moderated by
Gordon McBean (Western University), who summarized the October 2013 report
on the Science of Climate Change. Panelists included Debra Davidson (University of
Alberta); Paul Kovacs (Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction); Mike Brklacich
(Carleton University) and Erik Haites (Margaree Consultants Inc.), all of whom had
been involved in the preparation of the IPCC reports. Sixty members of the public and
the press attended.
Panelists: Erik Haites, Debra Davidson, Mike Brklacich and Gordon McBean
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Key science findings show that warming of the global climate system is now unequivocal
and that some observed changes are unprecedented. They also make it clear that it is
extremely likely that humans have been the dominant cause of this, at least since the
mid 20th century. The warming has important implications for North America both in
the Arctic, which is warming much faster than the rest of the globe, and in other parts
of the country. Climate stresses that carry risk, such as those related to severe heat
waves, heavy precipitation and declining snowpack, and that affect our health, economy
and security will increase in frequency or severity. Extreme events and sea level rise are
already having an impact on the North American economy. Stresses on water resources
will increase, affecting crop yields.
Much of North America’s infrastructure is vulnerable to extreme events and investments are required to reduce current risks and manage future ones.
Globally, emissions are continuing to rise, driven by fossil fuel use. To stabilize
atmospheric concentrations, emissions must drop drastically; for example, to limit
warming to 2˚C, net zero emissions must be achieved by the end of the century.
Delaying reductions will increase the difficulty and costs.
There is consensus at the international level on the seriousness of climate change
and the urgent need to adapt to it. Aggressive adaptations are needed, to avoid
catastrophic impacts, though some vulnerable groups will still face intolerable losses.
As one speaker noted, however, there are limits to adaptation; hence it is essential that
greenhouse gas emissions be reduced if we are to reduce the rate and magnitude of
future climate change.
In Canada, serious attention is required at top levels of government; policies at
federal, provincial, regional and municipal levels must also be coordinated to assess
vulnerability more accurately—and for the development of adaptation strategies to
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protect people and their property, critical infrastructure, economic vitality, and social and
political stability. Success at a larger scale requires global agreement and national policies
on reducing emissions from specific sources; it requires a global shift to energy efficiency
and ‘renewables’, as well as reconciliation of ideological issues that slow progress. Many
countries have already implemented policies: internationally, nations are attempting to
negotiate a (post-Kyoto) global agreement by 2015 to take effect in 2020.
The session outlined advancements in our understanding of climate change and
demonstrated consensus over risks associated with the failure to adapt to these changes—
underscoring the importance of the symposium and its outcomes.
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Key Points
• Global emissions continue to rise driven by fossil fuel use
• To stabilize atmospheric concentration global emissions need to fall to zero
• To limit warming to 2°C, net zero emissions must be acheived between 2050
and 2100
• Delaying reductions increases the difficulty and cost
• Requires global shift to energy efficiency and renewables
• Some positive signs despite counterproductive policies
• Success needs global agreement and national policies
Symposium Sessions
In his opening remarks, Symposium Chair Gordon McBean reminded participants
that extreme weather events don’t just damage property but disrupt lives and alter and
stress ecosystems. Extreme events therefore have environmental, health and insurance
impacts. McBean noted that the world is likely to see 2˚C to 5˚C warming over this
century, and that North America will not be immune. Adaptation and mitigation are
therefore necessary. For this we need leadership, new programs and best practices,
McBean said.
He then introduced the former Canadian Federal Commissioner for Environment and
Sustainable Development, Scott Vaughan, who gave the symposium’s keynote address.
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Keynote Address
Vaughan began by highlighting what the IPCC reports had to say about extreme events,
about chronic events affecting our oceans, freshwater and food security, and about
steps being taken to integrate climate vulnerability assessments with risk assessments.
He referred to IPCC’s 2012 special report on extreme weather events, which overlaid
climate change effects on existing vulnerability, a concept which leaders in the insurance
industry have understood for years.
In a powerful and comprehensive
assessment of world conditions,
Vaughan noted three main
warnings from the recent IPCC Fifth
Assessment Report. Sea level rise
is expected to affect hundreds of
millions of people. Higher carbon
levels in the oceans are altering the
chemistry of the oceans a million
times faster than has been observed
before. Over time this will halve
tropical fish catches which will
have huge impacts on global food
security. Vaughan noted that for each 1˚C temperature increase there will be a 20%
decrease in the availability of fresh water for a significant part of the global population.
This, in addition to growing populations, will require a 70% increase in food production
during the century. Innovative adaptation is beginning but serious challenges remain,
particularly in developing countries.
Gordon McBean with Scott Vaughan at the podium
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In the last 36 years, he said, temperatures have steadily risen. The frequency, intensity
and duration of extreme weather events is increasing. Heavy rains and droughts are
occurring more frequently. Reported claims for flood damages alone have risen from
an average of $7 billion a year globally to over $24 billion in 2011. Incremental, linear
approaches to adaptation are not enough now and will not be enough in the future.
Risks are clearly rising in Canada, he noted, but we are not moving as quickly as we
should to deal with climate change effects. The need to replace much of our aging and
inadequate infrastructure must be seen as an opportunity to adapt. Vaughan urged
Canadians to look to federal leadership beyond the excellent work presently being
done by Environment Canada, Public Safety Canada, Health Canada and Natural
Resources Canada in efforts to link risk assessment and risk management. There is a
need to ‘mainstream’ meaningful adaptation approaches within all federal government
departments. There is also a need for a better understanding of cumulative risks; and
more work needs to be done to make these risks known within established engineering
practice.
Vaughan noted that there are climate tipping points beyond which sustainable
development will no longer be possible for some. We need national leadership and
coordination on disaster risk reduction, adaptation and mitigation, he said. We need
deep cuts in carbon dioxide emissions. This, he said, was not a question of science, but
of arithmetic. If we withdraw the subsidies to the fossil fuel industry, the arithmetic will
change. Vaughan also commented obliquely on Canada’s role in addressing climate
risks. If we do not work with the international community to reduce climate effects,
we will face a much larger adaptation challenge in the future. Vaughan concluded by
exhorting action: “We have got to get moving.”
See Appendix A for Scott Vaughan’s full remarks.
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Summaries of sessions
Session One: Impacts of Extreme Weather Events
The ‘Impacts’ session was opened by Bob Sandford who examined the math, and
aftermath of catastrophic flooding events in Calgary and southern Alberta in June of 2013,
and in Toronto less than three weeks later. Sandford began by drawing the attention of
participants to the contents of a report prepared by Dr. John Pomeroy for Environment
Canada 18 years ago (1996), which warned of changes in hydrology that would likely
increase the potential for flooding, particularly on the Canadian prairies. In that report Dr.
Pomeroy observed that fresh water is both a mediator and a transmitter of climate change
effects. Water, Pomeroy wrote, should be viewed not just as a substance but as a flow of
mass, energy and biochemical constituents through and between ecosystems and between
the land surface and the atmosphere. Liquid water, water vapour, snow and ice, he said,
transmit climate change impacts across the country and across ecological and political
boundaries. That, Sandford argued, appears to be exactly what is happening.
Sandford then provided an hour by hour synopsis
of what occurred in hydrologic terms during the
June 2013 flooding in Alberta and compared these
events with similar flooding disasters that occurred
in July 2013 in Toronto, August 2013 in Russia and
in Colorado in September 2013. Focusing back on
Alberta, he pointed out that the flood was not the
‘one in several centuries’ event many claimed, but
well within what has been experience in the recent
past which demonstrated that Alberta was not prepared for the hydro-climatic variability
that exists today let alone what might be projected in the future as the composition of the
Earth’s atmosphere continues to change in the direction of being able to transport more
water vapour, capable of fueling ever larger flooding events. Canada’s hydrology appears
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to be changing, Sandford said. We can expect flood events to be increasingly expensive
socially, economically and politically. Sandford then offered five lessons from the flood.
• The loss of hydrologic stationarity could very well be a societal game-changer.
Simply managing water in ways that are useful to us at a local scale will no longer
be enough. We have to be alert to changes locally, certainly, but we now also
have to keep an eye on changes in the larger global hydrological cycle and where
possible, try to manage and adapt to them. This is a huge concept – a societal game
changer – and it is going to take time to get our heads around the concept not just
environmentally, but economically.
• What we have seen is what we are going to get. Predicted rises in temperatures
of between 2˚C and 5˚C would result in further amplification of the hydrological
cycle by 15% to 40% percent or more. This game change is not going to go away.
Because of our fur trade and colonial history many Canadian towns and cities are
located on flood plains in river valleys. According to a recent survey, some 20% of
Canadians believe they live on or near what they describe as a flood plain. Defending
or evacuating these areas would be very expensive.
• The new normal is that there is no new normal. Unless we want our future to continue
to be a moving target, sooner or later we will have to confront the fact that we are
rapidly altering the composition of our planet’s atmosphere with significant effects on
hydrology – a subject not many want to talk about seriously, even after the disastrous
flooding of 2013.
• Engineering solutions are going to be necessary, but they are not going to be enough.
We cannot ignore the local value of natural ecosystem processes. In order to retain
even partial rein over the hydrological cycle we have to enlist all the help nature can
provide. We gain that by protecting and restoring critical aquatic ecosystem function
locally, by and reversing land and soil degradation wherever we can.
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• The watershed basin is the minimum unit at which water must be managed. This
should be perceived as good news. There is great power in realizing that we can do a
great deal for our way of life and perhaps sustain our prosperity by taking care of our
watersheds. This suggests that it is at the local level – where we live – that we have the
most power to affect change and to act most effectively to serve the common good,
now and in the future.
Sandford concluded by noting that this was not the time to throw our hands up in despair.
The sky is not falling. The world is not coming to an end. We do, however, owe it to those
who have suffered so much from last year’s flooding to start getting it right for the next
time– for there will be a next time – and a time after that. The problems hydro-climatic
change is bringing in its wake are not going away. Public awareness of water issues is on
the rise. There is room to move and we should get moving while that room still exists.
John Pomeroy described the basin in which the flooding in Alberta had occurred. High
stream flows, he said, are natural in mountain headwaters. In this context, the notion of
flooding is a human construct. Pomeroy then showed the synoptic meteorology associated
with the storm that had brought on the flood. He talked about the Weather Prediction
Reanalysis and demonstrated that it wasn’t a wrong weather forecast that affected flood
prediction. Rainfall measurements are only part of flood prediction. In circumstances such
as those that created the Alberta flood, only part of the total precipitation was rainfall.
A great deal of the runoff was caused by warm rain falling on and melting the remaining
winter snow pack.
Pomeroy observed that snowpacks in the Alberta Rockies were below normal in early May
2013. That changed, however, with snowfalls at high altitudes later in the month. Rapid
snowmelt contributed significantly to streamflow which overwhelmed the capacity of
already saturated soils to absorb more water.
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He then went on to describe the research that he and his University of Saskatchewan
team were undertaking at Marmot Creek in the Kananaskis region of the Alberta
foothills—at the epicenter of the storm that initiated catastrophic flooding downstream
in the City of Calgary. He graphically illustrated how stream gauges were overwhelmed
and then washed away by torrents created by persistent rainfall and rapid snowmelt
on already saturated mountain soils. The potential loss of instrumentation, Pomeroy
explained, is one of the reasons models are so important.
Pomeroy went on to note his research had demonstrated that return periods for flood
events of the magnitude that occurred in Alberta in June 2013 were about 1 in 32 years
at Banff and 1 in 45 years in Calgary. He noted, however, that the floods of record
in the past were not caused by the same kinds of storms. Climate change has made
the circumstances in which such storms occur different in this region. Pomeroy then
demonstrated that the region is experiencing warmer winters, with less low elevation
snow and a greater percentage of total precipitation falling as rain.
We now have a warmer, drier system throughout the region in which these big storms
occur. This, Pomeroy concluded, is why we are witnessing floods and droughts in the
same basin in the same year.
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Conclusions
• Rainfallinthe2013Floodwasoflongdurationandlargeextent,but was not extraordinarily intense.• Soilmoisturestorageinthemountainsheldbacksomerainfallfrom forming flood waters.• Snowmeltoverfrozensoilsduringtherainfallcontributedan additional 30% to precipitation delivery to high elevations in the Kananaskis Valley.• Streamflowgenerationmechanismschangewithfloodmagnitude. • Smaller peak annual flows from the Upper Bow River
• Large floods come from the Front Ranges and Foothills,
• It is inappropriate to mix flow generation mechanisms in return period
calculations!
• TheCanadianRockiesFloodof2013wasbig,butnotextraordinary, and was likely neither the flood of a century, nor the flood of a lifetime.• Weneedtousebetterhydologicalmodelsforfloodprediction.
Drought is another expression of extreme weather. Ronald Stewart talked about
coping with dryness in the context of Manitoba and the Canadian Prairies. After defining
drought, He described its devastating historical impact on the economy of Canada
over time. He then went on to illustrate the many factors that influence the occurrence,
depth and persistence of drought, and demonstrated how wet and dry periods have
historically oscillated in Manitoba. This, Stewart explained, was reflected in crop
insurance. There were farms in Manitoba, he explained, that qualified for crop insurance
for flood relief and drought damage in the same basin in the same year. Stewart then
went on to identify drought indicators and parameters of drought preparedness.
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He showed how different regions have different susceptibility to drought and introduced
the basic principles behind the proposed surface water management strategy for
Manitoba. He then explained how changes in Manitoba Hydro’s operations can help
mitigate drought impacts in that province.
Stewart described drought effects on specific crops. Longer term droughts, Stewart
warned, have to be seen as possible. He then went on to describe the challenges
associated with predicting where and when droughts will take place. Dr. Stewart
concluded by noting, once again, that drought represents a great concern in a changing
climate especially as it relates to, and impacts, food security.
Comments Regarding Future Drought
• By the 2030s expanded water supply capacity will be needed as we never know
which year a drought will occur.
• More water storage should be spread over the landscape, e.g. small dams,
restoration and protection of wetlands.
• Manitoba Hydro will continue to increase its installed hydro capacity which will
enable it to provide additional, more consistent output of electricity.
• Long term droughts need to be considered, especially in the context of climate
change. Governments should be planning for a worst case scenario.
• Long term public education is needed to encourage drought proofing and good
water management.
Over lunch, renowned Environment Canada Meteorologist David Phillips regaled
symposium participants with stories about how he chooses his highly celebrated and
publicized annual Canadian Weather Events of the Year. Phillips explained that he bases
this wildly popular annual summary of weather disasters in Canada on three criteria
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which include where the event occurred, what happened and the nature of the public
response.
He explained that the world has changed over the 20 years during which he has been
offering this annual summary. There are more of us, and greater prosperity, he said, and
that is making extreme events more costly. Our landscapes have been re-engineered and
there is greater urbanization. Even without climate change, he said, these changes make
us more vulnerable to extreme weather events.
Alberta, Phillips reported, has been particularly hard hit, qualifying as having
experienced the 1st, 4th and 5th most severe weather events on his long-term list.
Alberta is not the only region, however, that has been affected. Disasters with insured
losses of over $1 billion have occurred every year for the past five years in Canada.
Governments and CEO’s should be concerned, Phillips pointed out, as extreme events
are and will affect many important societal and economic performance measures.
Phillips also pointed out that extreme weather events appear to cluster around one
another in time and place. We are not experiencing new weather, he said – there are still
tornadoes, hailstorms and hurricanes – but they appear to be statistically larger, more
frequent and more intense. In addition to more frequent heavy rainfall events, there
also appears to be a clear trend towards higher winds. Extreme weather events also
cover larger areas and persist longer, making recovery slower and more costly. Weather,
Phillips added, also appears to be more complex than in the past. Storms that would
have been top stories 20 years ago barely rank today, in part because the duration
of extreme weather events is increasing. We are not just breaking weather records,
he quipped, we are clobbering them. It is not the weather that we see looking out the
window that is necessarily changing, but the antecedent conditions such as the rainfall
or snowfall intensity and soil saturation that may intensify that weather.
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Environment Canada
Perhaps the biggest weather-related change, Phillips observed, is the concentration of
the full effect of extreme weather events on major urban areas. The loss of green spaces
in cities, he noted, is clearly contributing to the intensity of such events. The variability of
weather conditions is increasing, Phillips said, but so is variability in any given season. “We
are experiencing the best times and the worst times, all at once,” Phillips observed. “We
are witnessing the wettest and driest conditions in the same region in the same season.”
In conclusion, Phillips noted that weather disasters are in a growth phase. Changes in
these conditions have not slowed. Things can clearly get worse. You cannot logically argue
it is not happening. If you change the weather, you change the climate, he said. These
trends are not going to go away. “We need to reduce the threat of disaster by preparing
for it.”
Number of Summer Severe WeatherEvents on the Prairies by Year
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
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Session Two: Climate Change Effects on Human Health
The first session in the afternoon explored the health impacts of extreme events.
Iqbal Kalsi addressed the issue of urban versus rural consequences of extreme weather
events as they related to public health. He reminded the audience that climate change
is the biggest public health threat of the 21st century. Canadians, Kalsi noted, should
expect greater health impacts as a result of heat waves, with significant associated
economic costs. With a projected warming of 2˚C to 5˚C we should expect mortalities
to rise.
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Kalsi then focused on extreme weather events involving the Middlesex-London Health
Unit where he is responsible for the Health Hazards Prevention and Management
Section, which includes climate change effects. Within the area encompassed by this
Health Unit, Kalsi explained, winters are warming and summers are warmer. The
frequency of 1 in 100 year, 1 in 200 year and 1 in 500 year floods is increasing, with
commensurate public health impacts. There has also been a dramatic increase in
tornadoes. In addition the urban heat island effect is also becoming a public health
issue for the Health Unit. A trend toward higher nighttime temperatures has been
observed. Kalsi demonstrated how these effects will become more pronounced right
across Canada.
Groups vulnerable to these effects include older adults, infants and young children,
farmers and occupational groups actively exposed to the effects, as well as the
physically active and those with chronic illnesses. The Health Unit is working with local
municipalities to expand the area of the tree canopy to reduce the effects of warming,
but such projects take time.
Constraints to implementing programs that reduce the health effects of climate change
are many, Kalsi noted, but begin with financial resources. The next steps for his Health
Unit, he explained, will begin with collaboration with stakeholders and current and
potential public and private sector partners, with the goal of working together to create
sustainable, healthy communities.
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Emmanuelle Cadot had come from France to talk about the experience of France and
the lessons learned from the heat waves that occurred in Europe in 2003 and 2006.
Cadot noted that 2003 was the warmest year ever recorded in Europe. It is estimated
that in France alone there were 14,802 excess deaths of which 1,254 were in Paris— a
190% increase over to the reference years of 2000 to 2002.
She described risk factors associated with age, sex, marital status, level of physical
activity, state of health and ethnicity. She then outlined CHALEX, the French strategy for
information dissemination, prevention and mobilization against elevated temperature-
related climate risks, which includes a national alert system for heat waves that clearly
outlines health risks. The adaptation measures developed in France proved to be highly
effective during the 2006 heat wave and provide lessons for Canada.
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Peter Berry of Health Canada’s Climate Change and Health Office talked about current
climate-related impacts on public health in Canada and the preparations that were
required to prepare for further changes. He began by drawing attention to a number of
heat and other extreme weather events around the world and outlining the human health
hazards they posed. These included heat waves, wildfires, under-nutrition due to decreases
in food production, food and water shortages, vector-borne diseases and mental health
and violence concerns. Berry then went on to talk about increases in the transmission
of Lyme Disease in Canada and health impacts associated with the Toronto ice storm
of 2013.
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Citing what has been done elsewhere, Berry outlined what we can do to prepare for
climate change effects on public health in Canada. National Public Health Plans with
respect to climate change, he noted, exist in other countries. After demonstrating how
preparedness had dramatically reduced mortality from floods in Bangladesh, Berry
outlined how emergency measures can be aided by clear adaptation strategies in
Canada.
Berry outlined a number of specific concerns, including the impacts of warming
conditions on northern Canadians, climate- related spread of infectious diseases and
health impacts associated with extreme heat. Steps forward include heat and health
messaging to support increased adaptation measures by individuals; filling knowledge
gaps in health-related climate science; identifying factors that increase the vulnerability
of individuals and society; and the development of ‘alert’ protocols similar to those
being developed in France, which will be made available to communities across Canada.
In conclusion Berry noted that Health Care Facility Resiliency Tools have been developed
that include facilitator presentations; health care facility resiliency checklists and best
practices.
The final presentation in the health session was made on the morning of the second
day of the symposium. It was made by Skype by Sheri Fink a Pulitzer Prize winning
journalist who described the desperate situation at a hospital in New Orleans in the
wake of Hurricane Katrina (2005). In introducing her book, Five Days at Memorial, Fink
asked participants of the symposium to consider the impacts of extreme weather events
on the most vulnerable in society and on the individuals who are entrusted to serve
them. She invited participants to give particular attention to whether in such extreme
circumstances as those created by Hurricane Katrina, it was possible to adhere to
established moral values - or if certain extreme weather events, made it necessary to
abandon them.
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In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, sections of New
Orleans were uninhabitable for weeks. The hospital
medical centre which Fink studied was an island in
the centre of the flood zone. When the power went out
in the city, back-up generators could not keep the air
conditioning functioning and still be relied upon to supply
light. The vulnerability of those in the hospital increased
as hot summer temperatures returned after the storm
passed. Helicopters could only take one or two of the 2000
people that needed to be evacuated, at a time. The ethical
question became who to evacuate first. Do you take the
young because they have a long life ahead of them, or
those who because of fragility or age need immediate
help, without which they will die? When boats finally started to arrive at the hospital’s
emergency ramp the question became who do you rescue first? Another ethical question
arose when people arrived at the hospital hoping for medical help or refuge. There were
also issues with medical staff who had their own health problems. What do you do when
needs outstrip resources? How do you prioritize who lives and who dies? Hurricane
Katrina, Fink explained, made it clear that such ethical issues need to be considered in
advance.
The situation deteriorated at Memorial Hospital when as feared the back-up generators
failed and the power went out throughout the centre. The question then arose as
to whether some patients should be put out of their misery. While that debate was
considered patients began dying. In the aftermath, some doctors and nurses were
charged with murder. Ethics and legality, however, rely on intentionality and in the
case of Memorial Hospital, health workers were not intentionally hastening death but
relieving discomfort.
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The moral issues that arise in the aftermath of extreme weather events, Fink explained,
are similar to those that arise in war zones. As in times of war there were examples of
great heroism. Local volunteers arrived in air-boats to evacuate patients. Health workers
evacuated premature babies under their shirts because incubators wouldn’t fit on
helicopters. As in war, Fink concluded, we can’t know what we should have done. We can
only know what we would have liked to do.
Better triage, fuller disaster plans and more adaptive preparation are necessary if we
are to be able to deal with more frequent, increasingly powerful extreme weather events.
In concluding her powerful presentation, Sheri Fink pointed to a critical need for political
will in recognizing that we are all fragile and vulnerable to the increasing threat of
extreme weather events.
Session Three: The Science
Session three examined specific aspects of the science behind our understanding of
extreme weather events. Jennifer Francis broadened the scope of the discussion by
linking change in climate in the Arctic with extreme weather events at mid-latitudes.
She provided a smorgasbord of wacky weather events from all over the world before
asking what these events had in common. All of them, she said, are related to persistent
weather events. The question this begs is whether human-caused climate change is
playing a role. Francis answered this by explaining that we have put ourselves in a
serious predicament by significantly changing the concentration of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere. March 2014, she noted, represented the 349th consecutive month with
above average global temperatures. This meant that if you are presently 29 years old or
younger, you live in a climate regime different from the one experienced by your parents.
A warmer atmosphere, she explained, will provide more moisture to energize and fuel
extreme weather events. This will make wet places wetter while increasing evaporation
generally, which will make dry places drier.
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Arctic sea ice is now a mere shadow of its former self. There has been a 75% decrease
in sea ice volume in the past 35 years; and much of what remains is “rotten” or slushy.
The year 2012 marked a spectacular loss of Arctic sea ice, which allowed heat to warm
the Arctic Ocean which in turn melted more ice. This feedback, she explained, is why the
Arctic is warming two to three times faster than the rest of the world. The loss of Arctic
sea ice and the reduction of the extent and duration of snow cover in the Northern
Hemisphere are reducing the temperature gradient between the pole and the tropics.
This reduction in the temperature difference has begun to affect the behaviour of the jet
stream in the Northern Hemisphere.
As Arctic air warms, it expands and begins to spill down toward the mid-latitudes.
This thicker air turns to the right as the Earth spins and creates the jet stream.
The influence of warmer Arctic air causes the west winds created by the jet stream to
become weaker. Francis explained this with a tongue-twister: weaker westerly winds
are wavier. It is the waviness of the jet stream that affects weather at mid-latitudes.
As the jet stream slows and the amplitude of its waves increases and broadens, weather
patterns ‘stall’. They persist longer and do things we don’t expect.
When we look at extreme weather events such as heat waves, heavy snowfalls and
long-duration rainfall events we see very large jet stream waves. This, Francis explained,
appears to be particularly evident in the North Atlantic in October and December.
Francis showed the jet stream patterns for a number of extreme weather events
including extended drought in parts of the United States and the bitter winter experience
by those living in eastern Canada during the winter of 2013-2014. Each was associated
with large waves in the jet stream.
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Dr. Francis concluded by noting again that the loss of Arctic sea ice appears to slow the
west wind causing the Northern Hemisphere jet stream to move more slowly and to
become ‘wavier’. The larger jet stream waves persist longer in one place contributing
to more extreme weather events. The good news, she said, is that this understanding
presents an opportunity to demonstrate how human activity is impacting weather
patterns in the Northern Hemisphere.
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Francis Zwiers of the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium weighed in on the question
of whether precipitation events had in fact become demonstrably more extreme. Zwiers
noted there was a strong body of evidence that supported warming temperatures but
less clear evidence supporting changes in precipitation patterns.
He drew attention to the locations of some 8,376 weather stations around the world
that had been collecting data for 20 years of more. Of these some 8.5% showed
significant measurable increases in rainfall, while 2.2% showed significant decreases.
Some 64% of these locations showed a correlation between mean temperature and
precipitation in accordance with the Clausius-Clapyron Relation which decrees that the
Earth’s atmosphere will hold 7% more, or less, water vapour for every degree Celsius of
warming or cooling.
Zwiers went on to demonstrate how computations of potential increases or decreases
in precipitation are made within the climate modelling process. The results of this
modelling to date suggest there is an intensification occurring in precipitation in
Canada. What were previously one in 20 year rainfall events appear to be occurring
every 15 years. Zwiers noted that 25% of the probability of such events may be
attributable to human influence. He predicted that what are now one in 20 year rainfall
events could become one in six year events by the end of the century. He concluded
by saying that data limitations continue to hinder clear detection of the climate signal
with respect to changes in precipitation. Observed changes, however, do fall within
the expectations of the Clausius-Clapyron Relation. Formal detection and attribution
of human impacts, Zwiers cautioned, remain a challenge.
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Summary Discussion
• Globally,modelsimulatedchangesinprecipitationextremes follow C-C • Formaldetectionandattributionofchangeinprecipitation extremes remains a challenge - Emerging global scale signal
- There is not a lot of spacial structure to exploit
- Regionally, natural variation dominates
- Methods remain a challenge
• Projectionsindicatefurtherintensification - A current 20-year event becomes a 15 -, 12 - or 6 - year event under RCP2.6,
RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively
Session Four: Adaptation
In Session Four the focus turned toward strategies for adapting to extreme weather
events in Canada. In the fi rst presentation Paul Kovacs of the Institute for Catastrophic
Loss Reduction talked about adapting Canadian homes, to prevent damage from
intense rainfall and severe winds. Our homes, he said, are our most valuable asset.
We build good homes in Canada. How, he asked, can we sustain that success?
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Kovacs noted that innovative builders in Canada are testing and sharing new ideas
and slowly enshrining them in building codes and standards. When attempting to bring
new approaches to protecting existing homes, however, there has been considerable
resistance. Many Canadian homes, he noted, are vulnerable to floods and severe winds.
Based on insurance claims, it is clear also that severe weather is becoming more common.
Insurance claims related to wind and water damage are now greater than claims for
damage caused by fire. As a result, Kovacs noted, insurance companies are adopting
a new business model.
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Several factors are increasing risk. These include population growth in areas of risk,
aging infrastructure in many parts of the country and the increase in lavishly finished
basements which may be subject to flooding. Precipitation is also increasing. These
issues were put before builders by the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction. This
led to a program that empowers homeowners to consider their own risk through the
use of a risk-assessment tool and through readily available risk reduction advice,
particularly related to basement flooding.
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The Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction has also created its own research lab
and storm simulator. Research conducted with this simulator has led to adaptation
strategies that cost pennies but can save thousands of dollars in damage in the event of
high winds or potential flooding. The Institute has also partnered with local governments
and the media through which it celebrates local municipal leadership by recognizing
progressive jurisdictions and telling their stories.
Kovacs concluded his presentation by observing that we build good homes in Canada,
but many are vulnerable. The increase in insurance damage claims, he said, is as much
a result of an increase in vulnerability as it is to an increase in actual storms. We can
build more resilient homes, he observed, if we use science as a foundation for action.
Progress, however, remains slow.
Deborah Harford of Simon Fraser University’s Adaptation to Climate Change Team
began her presentation by summarizing the climate change impacts to which urban
areas needed to adapt. She then described the effects of the loss of relative hydrologic
stationarity on health, insurance and other important sectors of the Canadian economy.
Adaptation, she pointed out, is complicated by urbanization and by the aging of
critical infrastructure. Sea level rise is an additional problem for coastal cities such as
metropolitan Vancouver. Harford then went on to describe the international Coastal
Cities at Risk Project and its five research themes: social vulnerability, health risks,
economic exposure, physical hazards and organizational and governance challenges.
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Cities, Harford pointed out, are undertaking adaptation projects without provincial
support. This, she said, has to change. Regional cooperation will ultimately be required to
ensure that one jurisdiction isn’t undertaking action at the expense of its neighbours.
• Globalclimatedisruption - More extremes
• Warmerwetterwinters - More water falling as rain, not snow/ice - Timing of water availability changing
• Atmosphericrivers/precipevents - Sudden heavy rain events - Potential for extreme snowfall - Water running off rather than recharging
- Increased risk of landslides
• Increasedriskofsea/riverflooding - Made worse by mal-adaptive urban planning - Potential for poor water quality
• Longer,hotter,dryersummers - Potential for ectreme heat events - Potential for extended drought/wildfire - Potential for poor water quality
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The next steps in achieving meaningful adaptation strategies in coastal cities like Vancouver
include intergovernmental collaboration; stakeholder engagement, especially with professionals in
planning and engineering; on-going assessment of current and future risk; strategic action and the
mainstreaming of adaptive behaviours. Harford concluded with a summary of adaptation needs,
goals—and barriers. She stressed the importance of updated plans, maps and zoning, of support
for municipal adaptation efforts and for central leadership.
Resultofclimatechangesplusadditionalinfluences:
Loss of stationarity• Historical data obsolete
• Engineering and building standards no longer correct
(e.g. IDF curves)
• Ability to project conditions based on experience not reliable
• Extreme weather of magnitudes we cannot foresee
• Levels of damage beyond our experience
• Impacts on health, insurance, real estate, hydro, tourism, etc
• Food, water, energy and biodiversity: nexus of insecurity
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Extreme weather damage is predicted to increase:
• Canada’s physical infrastructure aging; many structures and facilities approaching or have exceeded their normal service life.• Over 80% of Canadians living in urban areas of 10,000 or more.• Small increase in the magnitude or intensity of extreme weather events could bring about a major increase in damage to critical infrastructure systems, e.g. - Transportation - Water treatment and distribution systems - Energy generation and transmission
- Communications
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The next speaker in this session was Don Lemmen of Natural Resources Canada, who
talked about adaptation planning in Canada. Lemmen explained why planning mattered
and asked rhetorically if extreme weather events shouldn’t be used as a wake-up call
for advancing adaptation. Noting that risks will affect all economic sectors, Lemmen
pointed out the need to link climate adaptation to disaster risk management, more
completely. These risks, Lemmen observed, include immediate effects such as flooding,
heat waves, wildfire and droughts but also include slow onset changes such as sea level
rise, glacier retreat, permafrost thaw, ocean acidification and ecosystem changes.
Lemmen observed that adaptation is occurring in Canada and that examples of
progress abound. Most progress, he noted was at the municipal level which suggests
a need for engagement and support from higher levels of government.
Take-home Messages
• Risks associated with climate extremes are a concern to virtually all economic
sectors in Canada
• Much of adaptation planning in Canada has been triggered by impacts of climate
extremes
• There is a need to strengthen the linkages, including institutional linkages, between
climate change adaptation and disaster risk management
• The recovery phase following natural disasters provides opportunity for
implementing adaptation measures
• Keys include advance preparation and collaboration
Natural ResourcesCanada
Ressources naturellesCanada
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Lemmen went on to describe current and emerging drivers of adaptation which include
concerns related to national reputation, access to international markets and matters
related to regulatory compliance. He outlined challenges and key regional risks to which
extreme events contribute and demonstrated how adaptation can reduce these risks.
Increased exposure of people and assets has been the major cause of the increase in
disaster risk. We need to be prepared, he said, and cooperation is necessary if not critical.
Barriers to cooperation have to be identified in advance so that they can be overcome
when extreme weather events become disasters. What practical steps, he asked, can
be taken now to strengthen the linkages between the climate change adaptation and
disaster risk reductions communities? Finally he suggested that immediately following
a natural disaster is a good time to advance adaptation strategies.
Session Four continued with a presentation by Jacinthe Clavet-Gaumont of Ouranos
in Montreal, on the influence of climate change on extremes affecting the hydro-electric
sector in Quebec. Clavet-Gaumont began by explaining that 97% of the electricity in
Quebec is generated by hydro, which makes reliable distribution highly vulnerable to
extreme events. She demonstrated what happened in terms of adaptation following the
Saguenay flood of 1996 and the Great Ice Storm of 1998. A process was put in place to
identify vulnerabilities and opportunities; to develop scenarios and to analyze impacts
of climate change on targeted activities with the goal of developing and implementing
adaptation strategies.
The development of climate scenarios required downscaling of global models to regional
levels, and down to local hydrological models. These models project a 10% increase in the
volume of spring flooding in Quebec. The models also anticipate that the maximum flood
in the most severe of probable meteorological conditions is expected to increase by 28%
by 2080.
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Natural ResourcesCanada
Ressources naturellesCanada
In summary, Clavet-Gaumont offered three main conclusions of note: Hydro Quebec
operations are vulnerable to hydro-climatic extremes; hydro power generation and
distribution systems are vulnerable to climate change and; therefore, adaptation is
required.
The fi nal presentation in Session Four on adaptation was offered by Michel Girard of
the Standards Council of Canada, who talked about the use of standards as vital tools
for adaptation. Girard introduced participants to the Joint Declaration on Conservation
of 1908 which more than a century ago concerned itself with many of the environmental
issues we face today. In the same way that the Joint Declaration functioned in the
early decades of the 20th century, the Standards Council of Canada works today to
mainstream adaptation through appropriate standards and to verify competence in the
achievement of those standards. Girard then explained how such standards are being
developed in Canada and globally.
Next Steps
• SCC to continue dialogue with governments and industry
• Exploration of additional areas of interest to adaptation to enhance resilience of
critical infrastructure in the North
• Capacity building and stakeholder outreach
• Development of companion certifi cation programs for new standards
Standards Experts. Accreditation Solutions
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Natural ResourcesCanada
Ressources naturellesCanada
Standards and codes are now being developed through the Northern Infrastructure
Standards Initiative (NISI) to increase adaptation capacity in order to reduce climate
change impacts and disaster risks. For infrastructure, these standards include those for
design, installation and maintenance of thermo-siphons to keep permafrost from melting;
changing standards for snow loads on roofs; management of effects of permafrost
degradation on existing buildings; and community drainage plans that take into account
the possibility of more extreme weather events.
NISI Priority Areas
Standards Experts. Accreditation Solutions
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Girard also described joint US-Canada initiatives on standards for technologies such
as balloon-type, ball- shaped backwater valves to reduce basement flooding. He then
described international standardization initiatives and outlined next steps in the
exploration of areas of adaptation interest.
Session Five: Impacts and Adaptation in the Insurance Sector
Session Five dealt with the impacts and challenges that extreme events pose to the
insurance industry. Chris White of the Insurance Bureau of Canada spoke on the
financial impacts of extreme weather events on the property and casualty sector of the
insurance industry.
Noting that the sector is strong and competitive, White outlined the economic
contribution of the industry. He noted, however, that more extreme weather events
posed a challenge to the entire insurance sector. The average basement flood claim
in Canada, White
noted, is $50,000. The
recent devastation in
Calgary, he said, was
not just dramatic but
traumatic. White then
expressed the concern
that another major flood
could unbalance the
federal budget possibly
impacting the outcome
of the next election.
DFAA: Disaster Financial Assistance Arrangements
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In response the growing risk associated with extreme weather events, the Insurance
Bureau of Canada has developed the Municipal Risk Assessment Tool (MRAT) which it
is piloting in the cities of Coquitlam, British Columbia; Fredericton, New Brunswick; and
Hamilton, Ontario.
The Insurance Bureau of Canada has also done a study on earthquake vulnerability.
Canada, White observed, is the only country in the world with earthquake vulnerability
on both coasts. The report observed that Canadians are not aware or financially
prepared for an earthquake of any significant magnitude. The total economic costs
of a major earthquake on the heavily populated west coast of Canada are, however,
projected to be over $74 Billion – a figure that includes direct damage to buildings
and their contents, business interruption costs and indirect impacts on the economy.
This, White noted, is equivalent to about 4% of Canada’s GDP and over 35% of BC’s
GDP. To put the amount in perspective, that estimate is also roughly equivalent to the
combined output of BC’s Agriculture, Forestry, Mining, Construction, Manufacturing,
Retail, Scientific Services and Transportation sectors. Insured losses, he noted, would be
much less, totaling $20B and would be largely concentrated in the commercial sector
which could afford and had the foresight to buy earthquake insurance.
White reported that the total economic costs of a major earthquake in Quebec were
projected to be over $60 Billion. This, White noted, is equivalent to 3% of Canada’s
GDP and almost 17% of Quebec’s GDP. To put the amount in perspective, it is roughly
equivalent to the combined output of Quebec’s construction and manufacturing
sectors. Insured losses were projected to cover only $12 Billion and are almost entirely
concentrated in the commercial and industrial sectors, as would be expected given that
only 4% of the residents of Quebec have earthquake insurance.
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White concluded by stating that individuals have to do more to protect themselves and
their property from extreme weather events. Businesses have to do more, and so do
governments. White’s final observation was that extreme weather events and disaster
liability are likely to figure largely in the next federal election and many elections
thereafter.
Session Six: Emergency Management and Preparedness
Session Six of the symposium focused on how well prepared Canada and communities are
prepared for extreme weather events. The first presenter was Ernest MacGillivray, the
Executive Director of Emergency Services for the Province of New Brunswick. As he was
dealing with a flood disaster and could not leave the province, he participated by Skype.
MacGillivray’s presentation dealt with where governments currently stood with respect to
extreme weather crises. He noted that in an emergency, disaster services are often seen
as independent from government. Such services are becoming ever more important in the
face of more frequent extreme events. MacGillivray observed that more attention needed
to be paid to areas in which people find themselves repeatedly in harm’s way. Risks, he
argued, could be reduced by better disclosure; by discouraging development and activities
that increase risk; and by the appropriate sharing of risks between jurisdictions and
governments. This, he noted, will require the rebalancing of public and private risk.
MacGillivray described a roadmap for reducing the risk posed by extreme weather
events. This included investments in assessment; fuller disclosure; better public education;
and enhanced management of risk, leading to better control of the outcomes of
weather-related disasters. The reason Canadians were not following this roadmap, in
MacGillivray’s estimation, was largely a consequence of public denial of climate issues.
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Governments, he said, don’t generally lead; they follow. He pointed out that costs
associated with disaster relief are already factored into government budgets. Evidence
is required to change government direction. That evidence has to prove clearly, that
societal and government risks are increasing as a result of more frequent and intense
extreme weather events. The Federal government, recently budgeted $200 million
over five years starting in 2015, for a National Disaster Mitigation program that will
be administered by Public Works Canada. MacGillivray left it to the participants at the
symposium to decide for themselves whether this level of funding was adequate.
He then explained how flood disaster mitigation is advancing in New Brunswick.
He pointed to a new flood monitoring and alert system and a damage assessment
program aimed at helping flood victims almost immediately after a flooding event;
but, he said, governments can’t do what is necessary on their own. What was
needed now was an alignment of the work that needed to be done. This alignment
includes the implementation of a disaster risk reduction strategy; the development
of permanence measures related to that strategy and regular reports to the New
Brunswick government. MacGillivray also noted that there was a need for a new focus
on community resilience and sustainability. Great adaptive capacity has to be developed
at local and regional levels. Building codes have to be altered, land-use plans improved
and professional engineering and architectural practice informed by new emergency
measures standards.
In conclusion MacGillivray offered that what we all need to do now is understand the
risks; learn from each other; and work to educate government officials and the public
so as better to inform policy and practice related to the growing public safety risk of
extreme weather events.
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The next presentation was by Barney Owens,
the Director of Response in the Office of the Fire
Marshal and Emergency Management for the
Province of Ontario. Owens began by talking about
the December 2013 ice storm in Ontario and
showing the effects of the storm, noting that at its
peak a million people were without power. In such
circumstances, Owens explained, coordination of
public communication is central to ensuring public
safety.
Hydro utilities throughout the affected region
immediately all required a share of deployable
field resources. As in the case of Hurricane Katrina,
hospital back-up
generators proved
to be inadequate to
the needs and had to
be augmented with
additional units. Small
communities, Owens
noted, proved more
resilient during the
disaster, especially in
terms of people helping
each other.
Barney Owens
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Owens also commented that public expectations range from: from ‘it won’t affect
me’; to ‘the government will immediately come to my aid’. One can’t count on either;
hence personal preparedness is important. As an example, when the power is out, ATM
machines do not work; in forest fires, cell phone towers burn. He noted the importance
of working with the media for frequent, accurate communications, as social media can
contribute to a loss of control of messaging.
Owens observed that the ice storm affirmed the realization in Ontario that a new
emergency measures operations regime is going to be necessary to deal with a
changed climate. As a result of the ice storm, Ontario learned more about vulnerable
populations and where they exist; that warming centres were critical in such events
and that problems with demographics and language can become serious issues in a
disaster. There was also a realization that there will never be enough money to do all the
necessary planning. Planning must span multiple jurisdictions and cover both immediate
response, and the recovery period. Key elements in managing emergencies include:
promoting personal preparedness; sticking to the plan; applying past recommendations;
promoting public/private partnerships; education and awareness and having generating
capacity where needed.
Session Seven: The Global Implications of Extreme Weather Events
The final session of the symposium focused on the global implications of extreme
weather events. David Greenall who leads Deloitte’s global climate adaptation and
resilience practice, began his presentation by talking about private sector resilience
to extreme weather events. Greenall noted that there were real risks to business
from extreme weather events and that these risks may impact enterprise value. Heat
waves, for example, may affect business cash flow because of lost sales, compromised
competitiveness, degradation of critical infrastructure that impacts supply chain
reliability and increased insurance costs.
2
3
4
5
6
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He then talked about how different responses to extreme weather events can make
a difference to both reputation and the bottom line. He gave the example of how the
operation of New Jersey Transit compared to that of the MTA (New York Metropolitan
Transportation Authority) during Hurricane Sandy in October 2012. The storm knocked
out power to over 8.5 million people and damage was estimated at $65 billion. In one
case, trains were vulnerable and became unusable; in the other, a risk assessment led to
operational changes. Fleet vehicles were moved out of harm’s way. Service recovery was
fast and financial losses limited. Greenall also illustrated what happened in Thailand
in 2011 when floods interrupted global supply chains; and in Toronto during flooding
in July of 2013.
The business case for investing in climate resilience is evident...
Reduces unwanted exposure and the likelihood of adverse risks with catastrophic
consequences
Reduces losses and loss volatility
Frees up risk capacity for higher return activities
Improves business process efficiency and effectiveness that leads to cost savings
and competitive advantages
Better addresses growing concerns from regulators, investors, analysts and
rating agencies
Creates decision-support frameworks and processes to better equip management
to make more informed decisions
1
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Greenall explained that Deloitte helps businesses see their profitability through the lens
of climate risks. Within this context, large data sets are used to model potential threats.
Deloitte, however, has encountered, barriers to such assessments. Many businesses
argue that extreme weather is nothing new or that assessments are unnecessary,
as such analyses can be done in-house by the company’s own engineers. Businesses
are also wary of investments in extreme weather event preparedness because the
investment will be lost if threats don’t materialize. Businesses, Greenall explained, need
climate and hydrological projections at high resolution. They need to understand direct
and indirect impacts and the need for adaptation plans.
He went on to quote a 2013 statement by the American Meteorological Society
that predicted that in an increasingly competitive global environment, nations that
invest most effectively in clarifying weather and climate risks will have an important
competitive economic advantage. He also quoted Christine Lagarde, head of the
International Monetary Fund, who said in 2013 that “unless we take action on climate
change, future generations will be roasted, toasted, fried and grilled.“
In concluding, Greenall mentioned an International Finance Corporation report:
Enabling Environment for Private Sector Adaptation. The report reviews actions that
have significant potential for enabling private sector adaptation and the promotion of
climate-resilient development.
Discussion
Adaptation and resilience were recurrent themes in the discussion. Adaptation must
take projected conditions into account and be made as simple as possible. Construction,
rebuilding after a disaster and renewal of infrastructure must be geared to long term
need. The adaptation community must be involved in rebuilding efforts, as well as
engineers and others. Local governments need support from other levels of government;
particularly since coping with some extreme events is beyond the capacity of local
authorities.
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It was suggested that greater attention be paid to ensuring the participation of First Nations
in future events, and to their experience in adapting to adverse weather conditions. Private
sector partners should also be more involved, particularly for their role in mitigation. Finally,
moral and ethical considerations need to inform business practices.
Several key issues emerged:
1. Need for public education, including tools to assist the public in spurring action from
their elected representatives.
2. Shareholder value is impacted by extreme conditions; hence shareholders need to
push for adaptation and mitigation measures.
3. Leadership is key. Canadians must speak up collectively to stimulate political will to
deal with weather and climate related crises.
4. Social and health mapping is required for identification of vulnerable populations;
planning of resources, and other purposes.
5. The enormity of potential future extreme events can overwhelm people, but the
Symposium demonstrated that adaptation and mitigation are very possible.
6. Communication is essential and should be at all levels, from community papers,
though conventional to social media. The Canadian Climate Forum could assist
in preparing materials for this. It could also strengthen interconnectivity among
agencies and be a springboard for working with partner agencies on future such events.
7. Transformative adaptation is required, rather than an incremental approach–
e.g. policy change that encourages consideration of future climate scenarios by
groups such as farmers; reinforcement of building codes in vulnerable areas; green
infrastructure; nature-based solutions (e.g. reforestation); natural barriers.
Conclusions
The Symposium benefitted from having diverse voices from the natural, social and health
sciences; and from the academic, public and private sectors. The personal and professional
experiences of the delegates demonstrated their commitment to adapting to, mitigating
and managing extreme events, for public safety, loss reduction, building of resilience and
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ultimately, to strengthen Canada’s economy. Common goals in adaptation are to save
lives and money. It was also recognized that extreme events stimulate creative adaptation.
On the negative side, the cost of federal disaster assistance can affect deficit reduction
efforts and other federal strategies. Emergency Management requires coordination
among agencies; and training.
The Symposium ended with a discussion of challenges, as well as adaptations aimed
at reducing risk and losses; crisis prevention and recovery; and the need for proactive
measures, to adapt to extreme events.
Key measures
• Think comprehensively. Plan the location of emergency equipment such as generators.
• Consider a national ‘Emergency Fund’
• Take account of the National Disaster Mitigation Strategy that has recently been
approved
• Engage major stakeholders. Encourage the public to speak collectively, to
influence them
• Improve infrastructure. Build to last and ensure climate projections are taken
into account
• Do things that reduce risk; discourage things that increase it (e.g. limit disaster
assistance if authorities allow rebuilding in flood zones)
• Focus on community resilience and sustainability. Build capacity at the
local/regional level
• Educate. Promote personal preparedness
• See the media as a partner for getting correct messages out
• Do social and health mapping to identify vulnerable populations. This is also valuable
for planning of resources.
• Celebrate success.
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SymposiumExtreme Weather: Impacts, challenges
and adaptations
Wednesday April 23 - Thursday April 242014 Adam Room, Fairmont Chateau Laurier Hotel, Ottawa
A G E N D A
Wednesday April 23, 2014
09:00 Welcome and overview: Gordon McBean, Symposium Chair
09:20 Keynote AddressScott Vaughan, President and CEO, International Institute for
Sustainable Development
The challenge of extreme events and their impact
09:50 Session1:RegionalImpactsandVulnerabilities• BobSandford, EPCOR Chair of the Canadian Partnership Initiative in
support of the UN Water for Life Decade:
Extreme events in Alberta: Math and Aftermath
Appendix 1
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Wednesday April 23, 2014
10:20 Break
10:50 Session 1 continued….
• John Pomeroy, Director, Centre for Hydrology, University of
Saskatchewan From extreme weather to extreme hydrology: the Canadian Rockies Flood of June 2013 • RonStewart, University of Manitoba: Coping with Dryness Discussion
12:00 Lunch
12:30 Luncheon speaker David Phillips, Senior Climatologist, Environment Canada
Changing Nature of Weather Extremes in Canada
13:15 Session 2: Health Impacts • Iqbal Kalsi, London-Middlesex Health Unit: Urban vs. Rural Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Challenges in Middlesex London • Emmanuelle Cadot, IRD, France: Heatwaves - impacts and adaptations (France) • Peter Berry, Health Canada: Climate Extremes and Human Health: Adaptation to Protect Canadians Discussion
14:30 Session 3: The Science Risk patterns; future change in Canada/N. America
• Jennifer Francis, Rutgers University
Influences of Rapid Arctic Warming on Extreme events • Francis Zwiers, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium
Have Extreme Precipitation Events Become More Extreme? Discussion
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Wednesday April 23, 2014
15:30 Break
15: 50 Session 4: Adaptations• Paul Kovacs, ICLR: Adapting Canadian homes to prevent damage from
intense rainfall and severe wind• Deb Harford, ACCT, Simon Fraser University: Urban impacts and
AdaptationsDiscussion
16:50 Wrap-up of Day 1
17:00-19:00
Reception
Thursday April 24, 2014
09:00 • Sheri Fink, New York Times
Five Days at Memorial: Life and Death in a Storm-Ravaged Hospital. (By Skype)
09:40 Session 4 continued….• Don Lemmen, NRCan
Canada in a Changing Climate: Assessing Drivers of AdaptationDiscussion
10:10 Break
10:40 Session 4 continued…. • Jacinthe Clavet-Gaumont, Ouranos
The influence of climate change on extremes affecting the hydro-electric sector/Hydro Quebec • Michel Girard, V-P, Standards Council of Canada
Standards as Vital Tools for AdaptationDiscussion
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AdaptationsThursday April 24, 2014
11:40 Session 5: Impacts and Challenges in the Insurance Sector • Chris White, Vice-president, Insurance Bureau of Canada
Financial impact of extreme environmental events – the insurance sector
12:10 Lunch
13:10 Session 6: Emergency Management and Preparedness • Ernest MacGillivray, Exec. Director, Emergency Services, N.B.
Managing the challenges of severe weather events (By Skype) • Barney Owens, Director – Response, Office of the Fire Marshal &
Emergency Management, Ontario
December 2013 Ice Storm in Ontario Discussion
14:10 Session 7: Global implications • David Greenall, Sr. Manager, ERS/Sustainability, Deloitte
Private Sector Resilience to Extreme Weather Events
14:40 Discussion : Challenges and Adaptations • Reducing disaster risk and losses
• Crisis prevention and recovery. Emergency preparedness
• Proactive vs. reactive adaptation
• Best practices in adaptation
• Decision-making in an unpredictable environment.
• Ongoing needs
Final discussion and wrap-up
15:10 Conclusions – opportunities for Canada
15:30 End of Symposium
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Appendix 2: Speakers
Gordon McBean
Professor Gordon McBean is the Chair of the Board
of Directors of the Canadian Climate Forum, and
is based at the Institute for Catastrophic Loss
Reduction, at Western University. He was Assistant
Deputy Minister at Environment Canada, from 1994
to 2000. He has been a lead author for IPCC reports
in 1990, 1995, 2007 and 2012. In September 2014
he will take up the position of President of the International Council for Science.
Dr. McBean is a Member of the Order of Canada and of the Order of Ontario (2008);
and is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada.
Scott Vaughan
Scott Vaughan became President and Chief Executive Officer of the International
Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) in April 2013. Prior to joining IISD, he
served as Canada’s Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development for
five years; and before that, was Director of the Department of Sustainable Development
at the Organization of American States (OAS) in Washington, D.C. He has also been
a Visiting Scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; the Head of
Economics at the NAFTA Environment Commission; and Counsellor at the World Trade
Organization (WTO) in Geneva. In addition he has held various positions with the
United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). He holds post-graduate degrees from
the London School of Economics, the University of Edinburgh and Dalhousie University.
Bob Sandford
Bob Sandford is the EPCOR Chair of the Canadian Partnership Initiative in support
of the United Nations Water for Life Decade. He also an associate of the Centre for
Hydrology which is part of the Global Water Institute at the University of Saskatchewan;
and a Fellow of the Biogeoscience Institute at the University of Calgary. Mr. Sandford
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has published a number of high-profile books on water including Cold Matters: The State
& Fate of Canada’s Snow and Ice (2012). His sixth book on water, Saving Lake Winnipeg
was published in 2013. Bob lives in Canmore, Alberta.
John Pomeroy
John Pomeroy holds the Canada Research Chair in
Water Resources and Climate Change (Tier I). He is
Director of the Centre for Hydrology at the University
of Saskatchewan and which operates the Coldwater
Laboratory, in Kananaskis, Alberta. He is a Theme
Lead of the NSERC Changing Cold Regions Network.
Dr. Pomeroy is a Fellow of the American Geophysical
Union and the Royal Geographical Society, the current
Past President of the International Commission
on Snow and Ice Hydrology, and an Honorary Professor with the University of Calgary
Biogeoscience Institute, the University of Aberystwyth, Wales and the Chinese Academy
of Sciences.
Ron Stewart
Ron Stewart is a professor in the Department of Environment and Geography at the
University of Manitoba and until recently, Department Head. He holds a PhD in physics
from the University of Toronto. He has been a senior scientist at Environment Canada;
he subsequently moved to McGill as professor in the Department of Atmospheric and
Oceanic Sciences, and eventually to the University of Manitoba. His research focuses
on extreme winter and summer weather, precipitation and regional climate. He has
led numerous Canadian and international research activities addressing these issues,
including the Drought Research Initiative (DRI). Dr. Stewart has been a member of the
international GEWEX (Global Water and Energy Cycle Experiment) Scientific Steering
Committee and has led global initiatives on regional climate within the World Climate
Research Programme. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada.
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David Phillips
Dave Phillips has been with Environment Canada’s weather service for over 40 years;
and holds the position of Senior Climatologist. His activities focus on Canada’s climate
and on promoting awareness and understanding of weather and climate in Canada. He
has published on the climate of Canada; has entries in The Canadian Encyclopedia, and
seven books, including two best sellers: The Day Niagara Falls Ran Dry and Blame It On
The Weather. Dave Phillips is the originator and author of the Canadian Weather Trivia
Calendar, now in its 27th year. For nearly ten years he wrote the Weather-wise column
in the Canadian Geographic magazine. David frequently appears on national radio and
television as a commentator on weather and climate matters.
He holds several honours including the Order of Canada, the Patterson Medal for
Distinguished Service to Meteorology in Canada, the Queen Elizabeth Diamond Jubilee
Medal; and (twice), the Public Service Merit Award. He is a fellow of the Royal Canadian
Geographical Society and the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society.
Iqbal Kalsi
Iqbal Kalsi is a Manager at the Middlesex-London Health Unit, where he is responsible
for the Health Hazards Prevention and Management Section (which includes Climate
Change and Health, Toxicology, Risk Assessment, Air Quality, Remediation and
Reclamation); Vector –Borne Diseases programs, andEmergency Response. He has been
Project Manager of an important PCB (Polychlorinated Biphenyl) Blood Study in London,
in collaboration with the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, in Atlanta .
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Emmanuelle Cadot
Mme Cadot conducts research at the Institut de
recherche pour le développement (IRD), a French
research organization conducting research,
training and innovation, for social, economic and
cultural development. It focuses on the relationship
between humans and the environment in Africa,
the Mediterranean, Latin America, Asia and the
former French tropical territories. Mme Cadot has
conducted research in a number of areas related
to public health and epidemiology, both in France
and in sub-Saharan Africa. Her work has included
studies of factors influencing mortality in the
heatwaves that have affected France over the past
decade. Mme Cadot holds a Doctoral degree in
Human, regional and economic geography.
Peter Berry
Dr. Peter Berry is a Senior Policy Analyst in Health Canada’s Climate Change and Health
Office, in the Safe Environments Programme at Health Canada. He has also worked at
the Environmental Health Directorate of Health Canada, as a Policy Analyst. He holds
a doctorate in International Relations from the University of Toronto. Dr. Berry is a
lead author for the Health Chapter of the Government of Canada Climate Impacts and
Adaptation Assessment, which will be released shortly. He is also a contributing author
to new climate change and health vulnerability assessment guidelines developed by the
World Health Organization.
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Sheri Fink
Sheri Fink is a journalist who covers health, medicine and science; and recently
joined the New York Times as a staff reporter. In 2010 she won the Pulitzer Prize for
Investigative Reporting, “for a story that chronicles the urgent life-and-death decisions
made by one hospital’s exhausted doctors when they were cut off by the floodwaters of
Hurricane Katrina.” Dr. Fink holds a Doctorate in Neuroscience; and a medical degree
from Stanford. She has been involved in humanitarian aid work in disaster and war
zones (Kosovo, Haiti, Iraq, Bosnia, Macedonia and Mozambique) with the International
Medical Corps.
Fink is a senior fellow with the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative and has been a staff
reporter at ProPublica in New York. Her articles have appeared in the New York Times,
Discover and Scientific American.
Jennifer Francis
Jennifer Francis is a research professor at Rutgers University’s Institute of Marine
and Coastal Sciences, in New Jersey. Her research focuses on climate change in the
Arctic, and she has published over 40 scientific papers on the topic. She is particularly
interested in the effect of Arctic warming on the jet stream, and how this has
contributed to abnormal weather patterns such as unusually long winters, recent floods
in Colorado and the unusually cold conditions across much of the southern United
States earlier this year. Dr. Francis holds a PhD in atmospheric sciences from
the University of Washington.
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Francis Zwiers
Francis Zwiers is the President and CEO of the
Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) based
at the University of Victoria. PCIC is a not-for-
profit corporation that provides practical, science-
based information for stakeholders and policy
makers, in a range of areas. He was previously at
Environment Canada where he was director of the
department’s Climate Research Division. He has
also led Environment Canada’s climate modelling
research laboratory: the Canadian Centre for Climate
Modelling and Analysis (CCCma). Dr. Zwiers is an
expert in applying statistical methods to climate variability and change and is an elected
member of IPCC’s bureau for its fifth global climate assessment.
Paul Kovacs
Paul Kovacs is the founder and Executive Director of the Institute for Catastrophic Loss
Reduction, based at Western University; and the CEO of the Property and Casualty
Insurance Compensation Corporation. He is a contributing author to the reports of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world’s leading forum for the study
of climate issues. An authority on insurance and climate change, Paul is committed
to disaster resilience and adaptation to climate extremes. He has authored numerous
reports on reducing the risk of loss from natural disasters, and is a popular commentator
on insurance, disaster safety and economic policy.
Kovacs has worked in private industry, the public sector and academia. He Co-Chairs
the Infrastructure and Housing Working Group of Canada’s Adaptation Platform; and
Co-Chairs the Science and Technology Working Group of Canada’s Platform on Disaster
Risk Reduction.
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Deb Harford
As executive director for and co-founder of Simon Fraser University’s ‘Adaptation to
Climate Change Team’ (ACT), Deborah Harford is responsible for development of the
initiative’s vision and its partnerships with the public and private sectors, as well as
overall direction of the program. She oversees and co-ordinates the development of
ACT’s leading policy recommendations for effective adaptation strategies at all levels of
government, as well as communication of the program’s outcomes.
Through Deborah’s efforts, ACT has created networks between local, national and
international climate change research practitioners, NGOs, industry representatives, all
levels of government, First Nations groups and local communities. Deborah’s work with
ACT has gained her national recognition as a resource for those seeking information on
climate change adaptation and practical coping skills.
Don Lemmen
Don Lemmen is the manager of Research and Science Assessment at the Climate
Change Impacts and Adaptation Division of Natural Resources Canada. Since 1999
he has helped manage the development and implementation of national programs on
adaptation for the Government of Canada. Don led development of Canada’s 2008
national assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation, including serving as a
lead author and lead scientific editor. He is also a negotiator and technical expert
on adaptation for Canadian delegations to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. His current
responsibilities include leading an assessment of the implications of climate change for
Canada’s coastal communities, infrastructure and ecosystems, to be completed in 2015.
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Jacinthe Clavet-Gaumont
Jacinthe Clavet-Gaumont is the coordinator of the
energy research group at OURANOS, the Quebec
research consortium on regional climatology and
adaptation to climate change. Her work involves a
study of extreme flows in the Cote-Nord region of
Quebec, with a view to quantifying projected change in
extreme flows. A graduate of the Université du Quebec
in Montreal, Jacinthe was awarded the 2012 Peter
Zwack prize for her Master’s thesis, which focused
on the regional frequency analysis of spring floods in
Quebec.
Michel Girard
As Vice-President of the Standards Council of Canada’s Policy and Stakeholder Relations
branch, Dr. Girard oversees the Council’s stakeholder engagement initiatives, analysis of
standardization issues, and development of key policies. He has a wealth of experience in
standardization and environmental management. Mr. Girard has been Director of Climate
Change Services at the Canadian Standards Association (CSA) where he managed CSA’s
Ottawa office and played a leading role in developing CSA’s climate change policy. Prior
to joining CSA, he was Director of International Affairs in the Climate Change Bureau at
Environment Canada, where he helped negotiate the rules governing the Kyoto Protocol.
Mr. Girard holds a Ph.D. in History from the University of Ottawa.
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Chris White
Chris White has over 20 years of experience in
public and government relations, and in planning
strategic communications, in both the public and
private sectors. Prior to joining the Insurance Bureau
of Canada, he worked as Chief of Staff for five
federal cabinet ministers. His executive positions
in the private sector have included Vice-President,
Government Relations and Public Affairs and Vice-President, Government Relations
in the auto and finance industries. Mr. White joined IBC in 2011 as Vice-President,
Federal Affairs. He oversees the daily operations of IBC’s office in Ottawa and directs
the Property and Casualty industry’s strategic and government relations efforts in
the nation’s capital. Mr. White holds a master’s degree in political science from the
University of Windsor and a graduate diploma in international development from the
University of Ottawa. He is active with Special Olympics.
Ernest MacGillivray
Ernie MacGillivray is a Senior Executive Officer with the New Brunswick Department of
Public Safety, where he runs their management consulting branch. Ernie is also currently
working on a government wide initiative to improve public sector leadership and
management practices.
Ernie has served previously as Executive Director Emergency Services, as Director of the
New Brunswick Emergency Measures Organization, and has for two decades has been
part of the transformation of emergency management in Canada. He still plays a role
in emergency management, as an advisor to Canada’s Safety & Security Program, and
also serves as Co-President of the Canadian Risk and Hazards Network.
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Barney Owens
Barney Owens is the Director of Response in the Office of the Fire Marshal and Emergency
Management (OFMEM) in the Government of Ontario: Community Safety Division,
Ministry of Community Safety and Correctional Services (MCSCS). His career in the
Ontario Public Service spans 34 years. Barney has worked in the Emergency Management
field for over 20 years, and has been involved in the response to provincial emergencies,
including the 2013 Ice Storm, the 1998 Eastern Ontario Ice Storm, the Power Blackout, the
Peterborough and James Bay Coastal flooding, the Forest Fires of 2011 and 2012, as well
as numerous other responses.
In 1998, Barney received the Amethyst Award for his involvement in the response to
the Eastern Ontario Ice Storm and is also a recipient of the Ovation Award 2007 in the
category of partnerships for his leadership in the development of a ministry Pandemic
Plan. In 2011 Barney received the Ovation Award again for his leadership in the
Ministry’s United Way Campaign.
David Greenall
David Greenall is a Senior Manager with Deloitte
Sustainability. He leads Deloitte’s global climate
adaptation and resilience practice, working with
governments, multi-lateral institutions and business to
address the risks of extreme weather and a changing
climate. Prior to joining Deloitte he was the Principal
Researcher – Energy, Environment and Transportation
Policy at The Conference Board, where he launched the
Carbon Disclosure Project Canada and Leaders’ Round
Table on Climate Change Adaptation initiatives.
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Mike Brklacich
Mike Brklacich is a Professor in the Department of Geography and Environmental
Studies at Carleton University, and Chaired that department for several years. Prior to
joining Carleton he was a research scientist with Agriculture Canada. His teaching and
research reflects his long-term interest in interdisciplinary approaches for assessing
human-environment relationships.
Dr. Brklacich is a Review Editor of the chapter in the report of the IPCC’s Working Group
II, dealing with “Emergent Risks and Key Vulnerabilities”.
Erik Haites
Erik Haites is the founder and president of Margaree Consultants Inc. in Toronto, which
for almost 20 years has provided consulting services on environmental economics.
Prior to founding Margaree he held senior positions with a number of other companies.
Dr. Haites is an expert in the areas of Environmental Economics and Energy, notably,
greenhouse gas emissions and emissions trading, as well as energy efficiently. He holds
a doctorate in Economics from Purdue University.
He is a Lead Author on the IPCC’s latest Assessment Report; specifically in the chapter
on Cross-cutting Investment and Finance Issues, of the report of Working Group III,
entitled: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate change.
Debra Davidson
Debra Davidson is an Associate Professor of Environmental Sociology at the University
of Alberta. Her research there focuses on social responses to climate change,
particularly community-level vulnerability and adaptation. She is currently working
on the social dimension of climate change vulnerability; urban agriculture and food
security; and historical impacts of natural resource extraction. Dr Davidson is a lead
Author on the North American chapter of the report of the IPCC Working Group II, on
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.
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Appendix 3: The Challenge of Extreme Events and their Impacts
Scott Vaughan
Ottawa, ON, April 23, 2014
Thank you and congratulations to Gordon McBean for steady and impressive leadership.
Gordon is one of those Canadian treasures for his determination and deep commitment to
link credible, robust science with public policy.
I wanted to set the stage for this morning’s discussions by highlighting three main areas.
First, what the IPCC reports say about extreme climate events. Second, what the IPCC says
about longer-term, chronic climate-related events that will affect our oceans, freshwater
abundance and food security systems. And third, steps that are being taken to integrate
climate vulnerability assessments into risk assessments, and the efforts to mainstream
resilience within the natural disaster risk community. I wanted to conclude with a brief
comment on the climate mitigation agenda and the urgent need to formulate a plan for the
2015 global agenda.
Let me begin with the IPCC, and its 2012 special report on managing the risks of extreme
weather events. The IPCC report of two years ago plays a useful role not only in unpacking
trends in extreme weather events and being clear about the level of scientific certainty
related to observations, but also in linking those events to human risk exposure and
vulnerability. This is a critical linkage, something that leaders in the insurance sector have
underscored for years. For my colleagues at IISD, who are working with countries around
the world, this underscores the need to look at extreme weather events within a sustainable
development lens that connects environmental, social and economic factors.
The IPCC special report notes that there has been a change in the frequency, intensity,
spatial extent, duration and timing of extreme weather events. The risks have steadily
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increased since then. The 2012 report notes that there have been a higher percentage
of hotter days in recent years; the World Resources Institute notes more bluntly
that each of the last 36 years has exceeded global average temperatures. The IPCC
observes with a medium degree of certainty that there has been an increase in heavy
precipitation and associated flooding in certain regions and some increases in drought
frequency associated with climate change. I know Paul Kovacs will discuss this today,
but the direct economic losses from these events have risen dramatically, as measured
by insurance claims. Reported claims for flood damages alone increased from an
average of $7 billion per year globally in the 1980s to over $24 billion in 2011. In the
Canadian context, the Insurance Bureau of Canada reported that the ice storm in
southern Ontario and eastern Canada in December 2013 resulted in $200 million in
insured losses, for a total year- end severe weather insured loss of $3.2 billion, which
is the highest in Canadian history. Yet when Nicholas Stern made the suggestion
that insurance coverage be increased to between 1–2 per cent of global GDP, he was
attacked fiercely as a radical extremist.
There are unfortunately many examples of what this means. Let me illustrate with one
country, Brazil, and one year, 2005. In 2005, Brazil’s southeastern region was hit with
the first-ever recorded tropical cyclone. No cyclone had ever been recorded reaching
landfall along Brazil’s coast until then. Over 1,000 homes were destroyed. Another
40,000 were damaged. Most agricultural produce was severely damaged or destroyed,
including more than three quarters of the banana crops, 40 per cent of rice crops.
In total, there was more than $350 million in damages.
The same year—2005—Brazil also experienced a devastating drought in the upper
Amazon basin, the most severe in 100 years. The Amazon River reached its lowest
recorded levels in 25 years. Lower water levels in turn saw large fish kills, high rates
of forest fires and human health impacts from water-borne diseases linked to lower
water levels and higher concentration of water contaminants, as well as respiratory
diseases from forest fires—all compounded by pre-existing poverty levels in the region.
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The causes of both events are complex, but illustrate the key finding that extreme events
are happening more frequently, where they haven’t happened before, with devastating
impacts on human communities—especially the poor—and from an economic risk
perspective.
In the case of the Amazon drought, the 2005 episode illustrates a key warning of the
latest IPCC report: In a global analysis of simulated stream-flows (1948–2004), about one
third of the top 200 rivers (including the Congo, Mississippi and Uruguay rivers) showed
significant trends in discharge; 45 recorded decreases and only 19 recorded increases.
Decreasing trends in low and mid latitudes are consistent with recent drying and
warming in Western Canada and the United States. While there is no single explanation
for these twin events, they were both triggered in part by warmer mid-Atlantic surface
temperatures recorded that year—the SST effect.
So let me turn briefly to the most recent IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and begin with
oceans. There are three main warnings from the report: first, the high probability of
rising sea levels, by as much as half a metre by the end of the century, putting at risk
tens of millions of people living in lower-level coastal cities and communities. Second, the
changes already underway in oceanic acidification: increased levels of carbon are literally
changing the chemistry of the planet’s oceans, at a rate millions of times faster than
observed at any time. Studies are now showing that average warmer temperatures and
altered chemistry may already be changing marine ecosystem patterns, from shrinking
average fish sizes for some species to changing predator interactions. Third, the impacts
of climate change on fish populations more broadly. The IPCC notes that there may be
gains in some northern fish productivity, but this will be offset by a significant decline in
tropical fisheries yields by as much as 50 per cent. Today, over one billion people rely on
fish as their main source of protein. The projected decrease in tropical fish populations
is thus alarming in terms of putting increased pressure on global food security. The
other big impact of climate change on food security is of course changes in average
precipitation. The IPCC warns that for every one degree of warming, it is expected that
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there will be a corresponding decrease in renewable water resources by at least 20 per
cent for a significant proportion of the global population. At the same time, it notes that
by the end of this century what we currently call a 100-year flood event is expected to
increase three-fold.
The amount of available renewable surface water and groundwater resources is
expected to be reduced dramatically in most dry subtropical regions. This will further
compound water scarcity and water trade- offs among different users—such as industry,
households, farming and energy—while the combined effects of altered stream flow
regimes, average river water levels, and extent and timing of inundation. Precipitation
extremes will thus have a clear impact on food security, from prolonged drought to
soil erosion and changes in stream sediment loads. A warmer climate may affect soil
moisture, litter cover and biomass production. When you couple these trends with global
population growth, we are now facing an urgent need to dramatically transform food
production in the coming decade.
We have already witnessed unprecedented crop failures in Australia, China, the United
States and elsewhere. The FAO now warns that the combined impacts of climate
change, population growth and other factors will require a 70 per cent increase in
food productivity in the coming decade. The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report projects a
decline in net agricultural productivity in major North American crops by the end of the
21st century in the absence of adaptation efforts, due to higher temperatures, lower
precipitation and more frequent extreme events.
So let me turn briefly to adaptation efforts, which is based on efforts from my colleagues
at IISD, who work with national governments and local communities around the world,
across Canada and in developing countries. The first is that extreme events create space
for innovative adaptation. It is clear from a few of the examples I have just listed that
climate change is not a recipe for business as usual or incremental steps. Efforts are
needed for businesses, households and governments to take precautionary steps. This is
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easy to say, but questions about the precise impact of climate change make longer-term
resilience investments very difficult for any community or company. To take one example,
we know from experience that infrastructure in Canada’s North is already bearing the
signs of climate change: melting permafrost, buckling roads and pipelines, and cracking
foundations that are driving up a range of others costs. A short-term fix is to replace that
infrastructure and maintain what you can. Moving to a longer-term assessment and doing
infrastructure planning takes policy leadership.
A concept that does show signs of hope is the foothold resilience has taken in the climate
adaptation field. Ten years ago, experts in disaster risk reduction management and
climate adaptation were oddly working in largely isolated fields. That is not the case
today. There are synergies that still need to be examined in bringing these two fields
together. It looks good on paper, but more needs to be done in coordinated planning IPCC
5th Assessment Report. Here in Canada, for example, synergies not only with Environment
Canada and others—as we reported in my previous job as doing useful work—but also
with Public Safety Canada, Public Health Agency, and Finance Canada need to be forged
to begin assessing longer-term risks. I’m really pleased that NRCAN will be updating
its 2008 From Impacts to Adaptation, which Don Lemmen will discuss tomorrow, and I
sincerely hope that the public roll-out of this report will be ambitious, sustained and used
as a vehicle to reach city, provincial and federal disaster management agencies.
There are two aspects to mainstream resilience: how to link risk assessment with risk
management and the development of indicators capable of showing key information
points.
One of the challenges in this is not only to scale up resilience efforts, moving from
slow, incremental steps to what is being called transformative adaptation. We are not
very good at thinking about cumulative risks any more than we are good at assessing
cumulative impacts of complex project proposals like the Northern Gateway. Given
the warnings about food security and challenge set out by the FAO, one example of
transformative change is to alter current public policy tools like farm income support for
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increasingly vulnerable, water-intensive crops to farming practices that take into account
long-term climate scenarios. The same holds true for a range of other areas, from
building codes to no-go zoning planning.
One area that is gaining ground is green infrastructure and nature-based solutions to
some elements of climate risk. There is now more attention focused on natural barriers,
from reforestation to address soil erosion and slope stabilization, to mangrove planting
and sand-dune stabilization to create natural and more resilience barriers. There is
potential here, but what is missing are again clear indicators in order to do standard
qualitative and even quantitative assessments.
Before turning briefly to the mitigation side and ending, I wanted to mention the
importance of research more broadly, beyond the effectiveness of natural barriers.
There has obviously been a huge increase in scientific research around climate change.
Yet the IPCC notes that of the disciplines we would look to first in some of the steps I
have mentioned this morning, like linking risk or vulnerability assessments with on- the-
ground risk management options—such as engineering—have seen the least increase in
peer- reviewed journal articles. The IPCC reports that literature published on the topic
of “climate change” has increased in most scientific fields, but has not has not changed
appreciably over the past four decades in engineering journals.
To address the complex climate change problem, we will need solutions from all experts.
I wanted to close with a word on mitigation. Twenty years ago, the worst case scenario
in discussing climate change was an increase between 0.5 to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Today
the world is losing on its commitment to cap average global atmospheric carbon part
per million at 450 and an average temperature increase of 2 degrees Celsius. The IPCC
is now running scenarios from 3 to over 5 degrees Celsius.
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Just as we need to think about transformative rather than incremental approaches to
adaptation, we need to put in place transformative changes to energy systems. Climate
change debates are not about science. The science is now clear, and it tells us that we
need anywhere from a 40 per cent to over 60 per cent decrease in greenhouse gas
emissions in the near term, and net zero emissions must be achieved between 2050
and 2100 to keep under the 2 degree Celsius cap. This is therefore not a matter of more
analysis, but simple arithmetic: what steps are needed to cap emissions and keep within a
simple concept we all understand? How to have a balanced carbon budget?
The simple challenge is to make clean energy—from renewables, from convention with
carbon capture and storage—cheaper than dirty energy. One place to begin is ending the
$500 billion to $600 billion each year globally that governments spend on fossil subsidies,
and finding ways—through fiscal policies, public procurement, clear policy direction for oil
and gas regulations—to ramp up clean energy.
International action to address climate change is a crucial part of the solution. We could
spend all day criticizing the UNFCCC and speculating about the likelihood of success
for the COP meeting in Paris in 2015. Yet this needs to succeed and Canada has very
little time in putting together its formal position going into the Paris COP. My colleagues
work closely with provinces and they, with industry, are increasingly anxious that there is
little open, transparent consultation about Canada’s 2015 strategy. It will likely look very
different from the top-down Kyoto Protocol. But the international community needs an
international system that spurs bottom-up and top-down action, that is able to count up
and compare national actions through strong levels of ambitions for climate finance both
for mitigation and adaptation, and that has in place coherent monitoring, reporting and
verification systems.
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There are climate change tipping points beyond which it will no longer be possible for
some systems to achieve sustainable development. More mitigation in the near term
can reduce the need for adaptation in the future. There are strategies that we can
pursue now that will put us onto climate-resilient pathways while also helping to improve
livelihoods, social and economic well-being, and environmental integrity. We are already
seeing the impacts of climate change and the science is clear on what we will continue
to see. We need national leadership and coordination on disaster risk reduction,
adaptation and mitigation; and if we do not work with the international community on
mitigation, then we will have a much larger task for adaptation in the future.
Thank you again for inviting me and I wish you all the best in your deliberations over the
next two days.
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Bancroft, DouglasEarth Observations
Beckett, DianeOttawa
Beckwith, PaulGeography, University of Ottawa
Benkert, BronwynYukon College
Bennett, John Sierra Club Canada Foundation
Berry, PeterHealth Canada
Binkley AlexFreelance Reporter
Blair, GrahamHabitatSeven
Bleau, Nathalie
Boeckh, JanetMontreal
Boulton, WayneRWDI Air Inc.
Brandum, SusanGreen Communities & Rideau Environmental Action League (RAIN!)
Brklacich, MichaelCarleton University
Bruce, JamesOttawa
Cadot, EmmanuelleInstitut de recherche pour le développementMontpellier, France
Casselman, DanielFederation of Canadian Municipalities
Chandler, JaninaEnvironment Canada
Chaput, MichelleDoctoral candidate, Geography
Choquette, Hon. Francois, M.P., Ottawa
Church, GailCanadian Climate Forum
Church, IanWhitehorse, YukonBoard of Directors, Canadian Climate Forum
Christie, Peter Kingston
Clavet-Gaumont, JacintheOuranos, Montreal
Cobb, PaulMirarco
Conway, DawnCanadian Climate Forum
Cookson-Hills, PippaUniversity of Alberta
Davidson, DebraUniversity of Alberta
Douglas, AllanDirector, Ontario Centre for Climate Impacts & Adaptation Resources
Dorgeville, MarcOttawa
Fenech, Adam University of Prince Edward Island
Fink, SheriJournalist, New York Times
Francis, JenniferRutgers University
Gajewski, Konrad University of Ottawa
Girard, MichelStandards Council of Canada
Greenall, DavidDeloitte, Sustainability
Harford, DebAdaptation to Climate Change Team (ACT)Simon Fraser University
Harris, MelissaClimate Change & EnergyInternat’l Institute for Sustainable Development
Henstra, Dan Waterloo
Herring, Richard Habitat Seven
Hoefer, CarlRotman Institute of Philosophy, Western University
Hoffman, PerryManaging EditorCanadian Green Tech
Kaknevicius, ArianaCanadian Geographic
Kalsi, IqbalMiddlesex-London Health Unit
Kovacs, PaulInstitute for Catastrophic Loss ReductionWestern University
Kulkarni, Tanuja Federal S&T Community Secretariat, Environment Canada
Ladd, Matthew Ottawa
Lemmen, DonNatural Resources Canada
Levasseur, DavidQuebec
Appendix 4: Symposium Delegates and Speakers
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Levasseur, MauriceUniversité Laval Board of Directors, Canadian Climate Forum
Levine, TamaraToronto
Liu, Jinliang (John) Toronto
Luloff, MatthewOffice of the Hon. John McKay P.C., MP
Mackwani, Zeenat Ottawa
Martel, PatriciaToronto
MacGillivray, ErnestEmergency Services Branch, New Brunswick
McBean, GordonChair, Canadian Climate Forum, Western University
McKay, Robin Agriculture & Agrifood Canada
McMillan, AnnOttawa Michaud, ChristianGatineau
Mills, JohnTorontoBoard of Directors, Canadian Climate Forum
Mitchell, Carrie Waterloo
Moogk-Soulis, CarolWaterloo
Morand, Annette Sudbury
Myers, ErinClimate Change & Health Adaptation in the North, First Nations & Inuit Health Branch, Health Canada
Mysak, LawrenceMcGill UniversityBoard of Directors, Canadian Climate Forum
O’Hagan, PeterHamilton
Owens, BarneyOffice of the Fire Marshall & EmergencyManagement in Ontario
Palko, KathyOttawa
Pedersen, TomPacific Institute for Climate Solutions (PICS), VictoriaBoard of Directors, Canadian Climate Forum
Phillips, DavidEnvironment Canada
Plecash, ChrisThe Hill Times
Pomeroy, JohnUniversity of Saskatchewan
Princz, D.2577 Yarmouth CresOttawa Ontario K1V 6J9
Raikes, JonathanLondon
Richard, JacquelineOntario Centre for Climate Impacts and Adaptation Resources
Rodgers, CarolineToronto
Roy, PhilippeMontréal
Rycerz, AmandaHabitat Seven
Samms. JamesFredericton
Sanford, BobEPCOR Chair
Soulis, RicUniversity of Waterloo
Sparling, ErikRisk Sciences International, Ottawa
Stephenson, AlexandraMarkham
Stevenson, Ben M.Agriculture & Agrifood Canada
Stewart, RonUniversity of Manitoba
Szoler, DianeLondon, Ontario
Turner, MichelleOttawa
Urquizo, NattyRWDI AIR Inc.
Van Dijken, RobertWhitehorse
Vaughan, ScottInternational Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD)
Vigneault, Frederic R. Gatineau
Vogel, Brennan London
Walker, AnitaAADNC
White, ChrisInsurance Bureau of Canada
Wong, CarissaOttawa
55 Laurier Ave. E., Suite 10148, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5
Telephone: 613-238-2223
www.climateforum.ca
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