Examining Social Preferences in Northern Uganda Matt Lowes ECON 700

Examining Social Preferences in Northern Uganda

Matt Lowes

ECON 700

Motivation

• Conflict in northern Uganda• Lord’s Resistance Army and the

Government of Uganda

• Policy of displacement - exogenous variation

• Inform post-conflict recovery policy and aid interventions

Literature Review

• Abigail Barr (2003) Resettlement, Trust and Trustworthiness in Zimbabwe

• Chris Blattman - Psychological effects of Abduction

Experimental Design: Sample

• 23 villages (8 host, 15 displaced) in Paicho and Awach sub-counties in Gulu district

Exp. Design: Games

• Trust Game– Measures of trust and trustworthiness

• Experimental controls– Dictator game– Risk game

• Individual and community level survey

Summary Statistics

Summary Statistics Population Host Displaced Abducted Not Abducted

Female 0.3832599 0.3974359 0.3758389 0.3559322 0.3952096

Age 34.23348 37.29487 32.63087 34.54237 34.30769

Literacy* 0.467 0.4872 0.4564 0.3559 0.503

Numeracy** 0.6123 0.5641 0.6376 0.5593 0.6347

Ave. Sent DG 407.9295 387.1795 418.7919 400 410.7784

Ave. Sent TG 429.9559 423.0769 433.557 444.0678 423.9521

Ave. Return TG A 317.1806 302.5641 324.8322 318.6441 316.1677

Ave. Return TG B 549.7797 548.7179 550.3356 552.5424 547.3054

Ave. Return TG C 733.9119 733.3333 734.2148 769.4915 719.7485

Ave. Return TG D 985.9031 948.7179 1005.369 1003.39 979.6407

Ave. Return TG E 1247.568 1256.41 1242.94 1288.136 1228.731

Take Risk? 0.5903 0.641 0.5638 0.4915 0.6228

n 227 78 149 59 167

*Can you read with ease a book or newspaper in some language?**Can you tell me what 16,000 UGX plus 12,000 UGX equals?

Table 1

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

Abduction -.33396734* -.32631707* -.32330225* -.3211066* -.32200436*

(0.080) (0.088) (0.092) (0.097) (0.097)

Displacement -.17517806 -.19507011 -.19482848 -.21946654

(0.329) (0.285) (0.286) (0.233)

Duration of Stay -.00102291 -.00101237 -.00097258

(0.576) (0.581) (0.598)

Literacy .01406214 -.14684964

(0.935) (0.487)

Numeracy .28919616

(0.179)

constant .31272313*** .42684544*** .55439576** .54585671* 0.45492921Note: *** significant at 0.01 level, ** significant at .05 level, * significant at .1 level.p-values in parenthesis

Table 2

Determinants of Risk Tolerance

Results: Risk

Results: Altruism

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

Abduction -12.840 -14.870 -15.267 -18.882 -18.787447(0.404) (0.326) (0.316) (0.217) (0.215)

Displacement 36.352*** 36.706** 36.157** 33.450389**(0.010) (0.011) (0.011) (0.018)

Duration in IDP -.0025 -.02155 -.01829519(0.986) (0.879) (0.896)

Literacy -22.904* -41.078047***(0.091) (0.010)

Numeracy 34.205693**(0.036)

constant 411.75162*** 388.55668*** 389.01217*** 403.25436*** 391.84575***(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)

Note: *** significant at 0.01 level, ** significant at .05 level, * significant at .1 level.p-values in parathensis

Table 3

Dictator Game - Measure of Altruism

Results: Trust

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

Dictator Game .2889*** .2858*** .2851*** .2853*** .2880***

(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.005) (0.000)

Abduction 24.941 24.757 24.290 25.942 27.568

(0.133) (0.136) (0.147) (0.123) (0.105)

Displacement 3.498 3.235 4.228 3.874

(0.823) (0.839) (0.791) (0.809)

Duration of Stay -.0511 -.0451 -.0373

(0.743) (0.772) (0.811)

Risk 12.596 12.205

(0.407) (0.423)

Literacy 6.883

(0.707)

Numeracy 5.186

(0.782)

constant 306.358*** 305.356*** 312.038*** 302.734*** 294.214***

( 0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)Note: *** significant at 0.01 level, ** significant at .05 level, * significant at .1 level.p-values in parenthesis

Table 4

Trust Game Player 1 - Measure of Trust

Results: Trustworthiness

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

Dictator Game .9262*** .9779*** .9738*** .9414*** .9191***

(0.002) (0.001) (0.001) (0.002) (0.002)

Abduction 66.923 70.438 70.177 61.247 61.115

(0.284) (0.259) (0.263) (0.333) (0.333)

Displacement -61.349 -71.076 -71.002 -73.485

(0.295) (0.233) (0.232) (0.217)

Duration of Stay -.6499 -.6869 -.6817

(0.266) (0.240) (0.243)

Literacy -54.663 -75.759

(0.330) (0.268)

Numeracy 37.564

(0.591)

constant 532.072*** 550.498*** 633.352*** 678.868*** 675.551***(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)

Note: *** significant at 0.01 level, ** significant at .05 level, * significant at .1 level.p-values in parenthesis

Table 5

Trust Game Player 2 - Measure of Trustworthiness

Conclusions

• Abduction effects on risk tolerance

• Amendment to Blattman’s policy suggestion– Policy aware of altered risk tolerance

among abductees

• Confirmation of resilience

Where is Uganda? Where is Gulu?

Paicho and Awach Sub-Counties