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Enrollment ProjectingThe Magic of Modeling and Deposits
Rachel MorrisData & Reporting Coordinator
Missouri University of Science and Technologyrachelm@mst.edu
Overview
•Who are we •Institutional Goals•KPI’s (Key Performance Indicators)•Benchmarks•Enrollment Projections•Assessment
1. Establish timeline with upper-level managers; on-going communication
2. Determine critical benchmarks & track progress towards goals at specific points in time
3. Know where opportunities exist to adjust strategy
4. Build trend lines for key performance indicators
5. Refine models overtime
Guidelines for forecasting enrollment
1. We’re one of America’s top
technological research universities.
2.Our students get great jobs
at great salaries.
3.Our students graduate with the
ability to address real-world problems.
4.We’re one of America’s
“30 safest campuses.”
5.S&T is one of the top 10
“best value” national public universities.
A Top Technological Research University
A university with… At least 25% of students studying engineering
A majority of students studying mathematics, engineering, science, business and computing
A robust graduate program
Strong research culture
Exceptional liberal arts, humanities and social science degree programs that complement the technological strengths of the university
What is a “Technological Research University?”
Missouri S&T
Michigan Tech
Colorado Mines
SD Mines
New Mexico Mining & Tech
IllinoisTech
CalTech
FloridaTech
GeorgiaTech
Clarkson
New JerseyTech
StevensTech
MIT
WPI
Rensselaer
America’s TechnologicalResearch Universities
U of A - Huntsville
Degree Programs
+60 Degree
Programs
34 BS/BA
MBA/MST
29 MS/ME
20 PhD
Learn Moredegrees.mst.edu
*Masters degree only
Missouri S&T: 90% engineering, science and computing majors
19th in Nation for Largest Undergraduate Engineering Enrollment 17th in Nation for Number of Engineering Degrees Granted to African-Americans
19th in Nation for Number of BS Engineering Degrees Granted
TOTAL Enrollment 7,206 Undergraduate students 5,504
Graduate students 1,702
New freshman class 1,170
New transfer class 388
Miners’ Fall 2010 StatsBreaking National Trends
Fall 201043
84
3
2
43
2941
195
56
128
3629
4,901
54
8125
7
4
20
20
45928
20
34
20
18
16 25
7
24
12
123
22
22
32
6
174
4
12
Total Enrollment
48 states & 51 nations
70% Missouri residents
10% minority students
9% international students
DC 1
4
Students’ Home States
1
2
Unofficial data until after 4th week census
Average Age: 21.6 years old Gender:
23% Female 77% Male
First Generation College Students: 2005-06: 37%
Residency: Missouri Residents: 76% Out-State Students: 22% International: 2%
Ethnicity: African-American: 4% Asian-American: 3% Caucasian: 83% Hispanic: 2% Native-American: 1% Non-resident, International: 2% Not Disclosed: 5%
From a Community <40,000: 45% approx. Average Family Income: $82,000 Average Indebtedness at Graduation:
$23,500 USD approx. High Financial Need (Pell qualifier): 24% Freshmen with Credit Cards:
24% 6 arrive with over $1000 USD standing
balance Students with PCs:
94% +70% laptops 7% Macs
Students with Cell Phones 97%
Undergraduate demographics and psychographics
1050 to 1150 students with the following profile:
Academic Preparedness: 27 average ACT score (upper 10% in nation)90% having completed the full Missouri college-prep
curriculum 50% from the upper 20% of high school class
Geography: 70% in-state 25% out-of-state 5% internationalGender: 30% female 70% male Ethnicity: 13% under-represented minority studentsMajors: 70% Engineering (all programs)
5% Liberal Arts (psychology, history, English, technical communication, philosophy)
8% Business, Information Technology and Economics9% Natural Sciences and Mathematics (biology, chemistry, physics)
8% Computer ScienceSuccess Rate: 90% first to second year retention rate
80% return for third year65-70% graduate in six years
An ideal Missouri S&T freshman class
The Midwest and Northeast will experience a 4% to 10% decline in high school graduates between 2009 – 2014 (WICHE)
The profile of college-bound students is rapidly becoming more ethnically diverse and female dominant (NCES, WICHE, ACT, College Board)
The number of students interested in engineering, computer science, and natural science degrees has declined to record lows (ACT, CIRP)
More full-time college freshmen are choosing to start at two-year colleges (IPED, MODHE)
More students are enrolling in more than one college at a time (National Student Clearinghouse)
Future student market growth will include more students requiring financial aid and loans to complete a degree (WICHE)
Challenge: changes in the college-bound student markets
Som
e T
ren
ds t
hat
have n
ot
Ch
an
ged
:
Th
e G
old
en
Cir
cle
for
Recru
itm
en
t+
70%
en
roll w
ith
in 1
40 m
iles o
f h
om
e
+80%
en
roll in
hom
e s
tate
+1-15
+4
-5 +21
-14+13
+53+27
-9
+27
-23
+1
+1
+16
-8
-8
-2
-3
+22
+14
-4-2
-6
-6
-3
+2
-7
+10
-6
-6
-1+2
00
-12
-12
-6+1 +9
-3
-31
-6 -6 -8-14
-19
-17
-14
Source: Chronicle of Higher Education Almanac 2006-07
Projected change in high school graduates 2007-2017
> 20%+11% to +20%
0% to +10%
Decreases
+1
+10
% change in Missouri population by county 2000-2008
Source: USDA, Bureau of the CensusPublished by: University of Missouri Extension, April 2 2009
-14.4% - -0.1%
0% - 4.9%
5% - 9.9%
10% - 19.9%
20% - 39%
Missouri Average = 5.6%
Establish timeline with upper-level managers; on-going communication
Determine critical benchmarks & track progress towards goals at specific points in time
Know where opportunities exist to adjust strategy Build trend lines for key performance indicators Refine models overtime
Guidelines for forecasting enrollment
Goal setting tool based on previous performance and benchmarks
Tool for building enrollment budgets Primary dashboard indicators for In-cycle assessments
of recruitment progress and projecting enrollments Tool to measure effectiveness of activities along the
matriculation path Ability to determine market share Tool to better focusing communications and messaging
How We Use the Funnel
Missouri’s 2010 Student Funnel for All Engineering Fields
High School Seniors: 74,681 High School Graduates: 64,009 ACT Testers/College Bound: 48,290 Any Engineering Interest (all testers): 1,836 Any Engineering Interest, (+21 testers): 1,299
(21 = MO average score / 50%) Engineering Interest, +24 comp. score: 969
(24 = UM minimum for auto admission) Missouri S&T Freshmen Engineering
Enrollees: 721
SOURCES: MODESE 2011, ACT EIS 2010, PeopleSoft
Domestic Overall Freshmen Enrollment Yield Funnel FS2005-FS2010
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Inquiries 8361 8456 9629 11427 11514 11510
Applicants 1898 1984 2305 2260 2515 2693
Admits 1809 1870 2154 2088 2343 2479
Enrollees 865 950 1040 1031 1105 1155
% Admits Enrolled 48% 51% 48% 49% 47% 47%
% Inquiries Enrolled 10% 11% 11% 9% 10% 10%
Domestic Freshmen from Missouri Enrollment Yield Funnel FS2005-FS2010
2005 2006 2007 2008 20092010
Inquiries 4764 5061 6247 6325 5658 6053
Applicants 1339 1397 1641 1583 17911912
Admits 1020 1310 1511 14611665 1762
Enrollees 703 767 822 835 899 931
% Admits Enrolled 69% 58.5% 54% 57% 54% 53%
% Inquiries Enrolled 15% 15% 13% 13% 16% 15%
Domestic Freshmen Online Application Enrollment Yield Funnel FS2005-FS2010
2005 2006 2007 2008 20092010
Applicants N/A 995 1276 1404 18232170
Admits N/A 950 1213 13041700 2017
Enrollees N/A 423 550 591 771918
% Admits Enrolled N/A 44.5% 45% 45% 45% 45%
Domestic Freshmen Paper Application Enrollment Yield Funnel FS2005-FS2010
2005 2006 2007 2008 20092010
Applicants N/A 988 1029 859 692 523
Admits N/A 919 941 787 643 462
Enrollees N/A 527 490 440 335 237
% Admits Enrolled N/A 57% 52% 56% 52% 51%
13% (+375) increase in FAFSA submissions over AY0925% (+641) increase in FAFAS submissions over AY07
Where to Begin?
1.Determine critical information needed and begin data collection
Understand your student population and know your data
2. Verify data qualityaccurate, complete, shared definition & metrics
3. Identify key benchmarkspoints in time when data must be gathered and
compared to build historical trends
4. Holistic approach to data management
requires buy-in from “data managers” (create / manage data)
5. Build baseline yearassess effectiveness and refine over time
Factor analysis is a statistical method used to describe variability among observed variables in terms of a potentially lower number of unobserved variables called factors.
Factor analysis searches for joint variations in responses to unobserved latent variables.
The information gained about the interdependencies between observed variables can be used later to reduce the set of variables in a dataset.
Factor Analysis Defined
1. Gender2. Geographic Origin3. Degree Program4. Application Type5. Academic Profile/Scholarship
ACT Composite Score HS GPA HS Class Rank
6. Overall/Combination Fall 2010 99.1% accurate
Adjusted Projection: 1,161 Opening Week: 1,1714th Week Census: 1,070
6 month projection for freshmen fall enrollment (1 of 7 best factors)
Originated in psychometrics, and is used in behavioral sciences, social sciences, marketing, product management, operations research, and other applied sciences that deal with large quantities of data.
Factor Analysis is Key
Enrollment Yields and Predictions by Gender and State ResidencyFor First Time College (FTC)
FS2007 Admits as of Enrolled %EnrolledFS05/FS06/
FS07 Admits as of Enrolled Ave %Enrolled FS2008 Admits as of FS08 Projected Yield
2/22/20072/21/2005 & 06
&07FS05 & FS06 &
FS07 2/21/2008 (Admits X %Yield)FTC 1965 1028 52.30% FTC 1760.7 947.3 53.80% FTC 1959 1053
M 1527 820 53.70% M 1386.3 749.7 54.10% M 1491 806F 436 208 47.70% F 373.3 197.7 53.00% F 465 245U 2 U 1 0 U 3 0 1028 1051
MO 1341 795 59.30% MO 1213 747.3 61.60% MO 1343 827IL 192 84 43.70% IL 184.6 75 40.60% IL 223 90
OOS 432 149 34.50% OOS 424 125 29.50% OOS 393 1161028 1033
Enrollment Yields and Predictions By Schools
FS2007 Admits as of Enrolled %YieldFS05/FS06/
FS07 Admits as of Enrolled Ave % Yield FS2008 Admits as of FS08 Projected Yield
2/21/20072/21/2005 & 06
&07FS05 & FS06 &
FS07 2/21/2008 (Admits X %Yield)CAS 328 158 48.20% CAS 296.7 146 49.2% CAS 315 155SOE 1574 834 53.00% SOE 1410 771 54.7% SOE 1593 871SMIS 50 28 56.00% SMIS 44.7 24.7 55.2% SMIS 39 21
SOMEER 13 8 61.50% SOMEER 9.3 5.7 61.2% SOMEER 12 71965 1028 1054
Enrollment Yields and Predictions by Scholarships
FS2007 Admits as of Enrolled %YieldFS05/FS06/
FS07 Admits as of Enrolled Ave % Yield FS2008 Admits as of FS08 Projected Yield
2/21/20072/21/2005 & 06
&07FS05 & FS06 &
FS07 2/21/2008 (Admits X %Yield)No GO
Scholarship 634 395 62.30%No GO
Scholarship 545.7 353.3 64.70%No GO
Scholarship 627 405100 N/A N/A N/A 100 N/A **58% 100 17 10110 458 211 46.10% 110 388 180.3 46.50% 110 401 186111 16 14 87.50% 111 18.3 15.3 83.60% 111 0 0115 N/A N/A N/A 115 N/A **58% 115 74 43120 54 23 42.60% 120 61 32 52.40% 120 51 27125 N/A N/A N/A 125 N/A **58% 125 11 6130 13 8 61.50% 130 13.3 8.7 65.40% 130 6 4150 421 204 48.50% 150 392 196.3 50.00% 150 422 211160 369 173 46.90% 160 342 161.3 47.20% 160 350 165
1965 1028 Ave:56.4% Ave: 58% 1057
*Departmental Scholarships not included**Average % for 1st year scholar index
Ave of 4 Projections for FS2008Total: 1049
Are Linear Models Accurate?
YES – if there are limited alterations in the variable factors (see the profile and demographics noted before).
Current S&T model has predicted the final fall freshman class enrollment within 2% since 2005.
Best to re-assess the factor analysis every 5 years.
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