Energy Transitions BSG Conf - larsclausen.dk

ENERGY TRANSITIONSA continuous journey to better lives!

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Lars Clausen, Lars@larsclausen.dk

ENERGY TRANSITIONS

• Energy Transitions over time • Oil & Gas – 100 years of constant progress • The Danish Model • The Danish Roadmap to CO2 neutrality • Partnering Models – PPP models

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A continuous journey to better lives!

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2030 2050

ENERGY TRANSITIONS OVER TIME

ENERGY TRANSITIONS

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A continuous journey to better lives!

4,5 billion years ago Earth Created

315.000 years ago First man

10.000 years ago 5 million people

1542 500 million people

Today 8.000 million people

ENERGY TRANSITIONS OVER TIME

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Energy is the only Universal Currency; it is necessary to get anything done Vaclav Smil

Industrialization Energy Transition to Coal • GDP or Economic development 4 x faster than y

1400 -1800

1800–1940

Globalization Energy Transition to Oil & Gas • GDP or Economic development 5 x faster than year 1800-1900

1920–2030

Sustainalization Energy Transition to Renewables • Economic development faster and less energy intensive

2000–2100

GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE

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GDP PER CAPITA, 1800-2016

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LIFE EXPECTANCY

• Global Life exp over 200 years

• Red 25 years • Orange 40 years • Yellow 50 years • Light green 60 years • Green 70 years • Blue 80 years+

OIL & GAS - 100 YEARS OF CONSTANT PROGRESS

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Globalization –moving to Oil & Gas

• From First Oil in Pennsylvania 1859 to Oil Bonanza in USA

• Standard oil 1879, followed by IOC’s the 7 sisters, Shell, BP, OPEC, NOC’s – A New world Order

• The Automobile, Electric light bulb, Oil as primary fuel for transport, Power production et al, accelerated the journey to better lives or the exponential GDP growth.

WORLD ANNUAL OIL PRODUCTION AND PEAK

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2020

GDP – RELATIVE GROWTH !

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OIL – TECH – GDP - BETTER LIVES

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GLOBAL ANNUAL TOTAL CO₂ EMISSIONS & CLIMATE CHANGE

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1n 2019 Avg global 4,7 tCO2/cap, 1,5 c ! 2,9 in 2030 ! 0 in 2050 acc to Paris Climate accord

ANNUAL TOTAL CO₂ EMISSIONS

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DISTRIBUTION

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CHANGE IN PER CAPITA CO2 EMISSIONS AND GDP, U.S.

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CARBON DIOXIDE EFFECT

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Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

CO2 EMISSIONS• World 40 Bn T CO2 • WORLD 2019; 5 T CO2/

cap

• PARIS ACCORD <1,5 C • 2030 2,9 T CO2/cap • 2050 0,1 T CO2/cap

CURRENTLY 1,5 C IN 2040

CLIMATE SCENARIOS – FAST CHANGE IS NEEDED

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CONTINUOUS CO2 GROWTH !

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THE DANISH ENERGY/RENEWABLES MODEL

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Oil imports ! Oil Crisis ! Independence !Oil prod + Coal Imp! Renewables

THE DANISH ENERGY MODEL

• Before 1970 total dependance on Foreign Imports • Oil Embargoes 1970’ies ! leads to DK Roadmap of

Energy diversity and ultimately independance • Oil Exploration & Production accelerated & first oil on

stream in 1973! Net export oil from 1995 – 2007 • 1970 – 1980, start of onshore Windturbines ! 8000

Turbines Today • 2020 Parliament stops 8th licencing round and ends oil &

gas no later than 2050. • Maximising Interconnecting

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A two step change ! Oil, Gas & coal ! Renewables

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THE DANISH ENERGY/RENEWABLES MODEL

• 1991/5 First Offshore Windturbine parks 5 MW • 2002 Largest offshore Windturbine Park Horns Rev 1, 160 MW • 2008 Political deal – Wind- & Energy efficiency programmes • 2013 Windturbine park Anholt 400MW onstream. • 2019 New Climate deal – 0% CO2 in 2050 & - 70 % in 2030 • 2019 Horns Rev 3 Onstream, 400 MW • 2020 Goverment detailed Climate Plan • 2021 The worlds First Energy Island approved – 35 Billion USD • 2021 Kriegers Flak Onstream, 600 MW

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A two step change ! step 2 ! Renewables & Climate

THE DANISH REGULATORY MODEL

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Customer

DSO

CO2 0

TSO

Ptx

Price

Supply Security

iParliament

MinistryRegulatorAgency

Governance Model

Energy

UK

Europe

Energy Producers/ Suppliers

THE DANISH ROADMAP TO CO2-NEUTRALITY

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1973/1979 Energy Independence – Renewables & interconnecting

First Energy island

THE DANISH ROADMAP TO CO2-NEUTRALITY• In 2019, DK parliament pass the new Climate Law.

• Zero % CO2 in 2050, - 70% CO2 reductions in 2030.

• In 2020 Climate roadmap agreed.

• Extensive catalogue of initiatives impacting all Danes.

• 13 Climate partnerships to advise and deliver the detailed roadmap.

• Two Energy Islands agreed 2021, 1 New buildt 3-10GW + PtX, 2033, price 35 Billion USD

• Wide Danish stakeholder support, by population, industry, Finace, Unions, think tanks, Interest groups etc.

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ENERGIØERWORLD’S FIRST ENERGY ISLANDS The North Sea: 3 GW offshore wind by 2033, later at least 10 GW.

The Baltic Sea: 2 GW offshore wind by 2030.

NEW OFFSHORE WIND FARMS

ENERGY ISLAND

ONSHORE CONNECTIONS, ALTERNATIVES

NL, BE, DE

DENN

10-15 GW

ENERGI ISLANDS OR HUBSHUB 100 KM OR MORE TO LAND

ALTERNATING CURRENT

DIRECT CURRENT

ALTERNATING CURRENT

DIRECT CURRENT HYDROGEN

GREEN FUELS

HYDROGEN

PARTNERING MODELS NEEDED

• DK 2050 Climate plan will exceed 100 billion USD • The Energy Island is priced at 35 Billion USD • The Energy Island will be a Public Private Partnership • The DK Energy Industry is Internationally strong. • The DK Pension sector, > 550 Billion USD - offers 55

Billion USD investment to the DK Climate plans. • DK will make use of Public Private Partnerships

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Industry, Finance and Society involved – In ‘Public Private Partnerships’

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2030 2050

WE CAN LIVE BETTER LIVES SUSTAINABLY ! WELCOME SUSTAINALIZATION !