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Energy studies at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
Presentation at the EPS/SIF Energy Meeting
EPS energy working groups
Varenna April 7, 2008Sven Kullander
Sven.kullander@kva.sewww.kva.se
.
• The Academy and its Energy Committee• Running out of oil• Nuclear energy development with a focus on risks • Biomass potential
Forest potential Agriculture potential
• Solar energy• Conclusions
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
•Promotes the sciences and in particular natural
science
•Awards a number of different prizes
– Most prestigious are the Nobel prizes in physics and
Chemistry, the Economy prize in memory of Alfred Nobel
and the Crafoord prize
•Strengthens science in Society by means of
committees on
– Energy, Environment, Health, School and Science policy
Energy Committee’s agenda
How long will our present sources of energy last and which ones
should we focus on in the future? What effects does energy
consumption have on our environment and on our economy?
These questions are addressed in a global perspective extending
50 years ahead in time.
A number of projects of special weight are selected for providing
a basis for the analysis. A symposium presenting conclusions of
the Committee’s work is planned as an associated item during
the Swedish Presidency of the EU in October 2009.
Energy Committee Members
• Sven Kullander, Professor High Energy Physics, Uppsala University
(Chairman)
• Gia Destouni, Professor Technical Hydrology, Stockholm University
• Harry Frank, Professor Innovation Technology, Mälardalens högskola
• Karl Fredga, Professor Genetics, Uppsala University
• Bertil Fredholm, Professor Pharmacology, Karolinska Institutet
• Karl Grandin, Deputy Director, Centre for Science History
• Peter Jagers, Professor Mathematical Statistics, Chalmers Institute of
Technology
• Bengt Kasemo, Professor Physics, Chalmers Institute of Technology
• Rickard Lundin, Professor Space Physics, Institute for Space Physics,
Kiruna
• Karl-Göran Mäler, Professor Economy, Beijer Institute for Ecological
Economy
• Kerstin Niblaeus, Director General, Council of the European Union
• Bengt Nordén, Professor Physical Chemistry, Chalmers Institute of
Technology
(Representatives from all the science fields of the Academy)
Energy Committe’s projects
• 1. Running out of oil? Terminated
• 2. Nuclear energy development with a focus on risks. Terminated.
• 3. The Greenhouse effect and climate change. Terminated.
• 4. Book ENERGI – MÖJLIGHETER OCH DILEMMAN. Published in collaboration with IVA.
• 5. Nuclear fusion. Terminated.
• 6. Biomass potential. Terminated.
• 7a. Solar energy. In progress.
• 7b. New renewables (Artificial photosynthesis, wind etc). In progress.
• 8. Hydropower and water in society. In progress.
• 9. A European Electricity Power Grid. An EASAC project. In progress.
• 10. Threats to production and use of energy. In progress.
• 11. Energy statistics reliability. In progress.
• 12. Transports.
• 13. Electricity markets and scenarios for future prices.
• 14. Storage and regulation of energy.
• 15. Efficiency in production and use of energy.
• 16. Energy sources as threats to our health.
• 17. CO2 sequestration. In progress.
Swedish use of energy in 2005
020406080
100120140160180200
Värme El Drivmedel
Bio Fossil Kärnkraft Vattenkraft
TWh
172148
96
Heat Electricity Fuel
Nuclear Hydro
From Harry Frank
Coal Production of China
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Prod
uctio
n [M
t]
Production Exponential Growth
Six statements on nuclear-fission energy
The main message is:
Research is recommended on emerging reactor
systems
See www.kva.se
III generation reactor i OlkiluotoPressurized reactor north of Åbo operational 2012
1500 GWe
5,6: 2-wall reactor containment
1: Reactor vessel
2: Steam generator
3: Pressurizer
4: Pumps
10: Generator hall
Location % thorium
Megatonnes
Stokkøy/Arøy, Vestfold 0.2 ?Sæteråsen, Vestfold 0.05 8Høgtuva, Nordland 0.02 0.5 (+)Ødegården, Aust Agder 0.1 ?Ytterøya,NordTrøndelag 0.2 ?Fen (iron ore)Telemark 0.2 0.4 ?Fen (iron rich) Telemark 0.1 0.2 A lot
Thorium resources in Norway
TelemarkVestfold
THORIUM IN NORWAY
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
Tonnes
Aus
tral
ia
Indi
a
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Nor
way
Can
ada
Oth
erco
untr
ies
Sou
thA
fric
a
Bra
zil
Mal
aysi
a
World Thorium Reserves and Reserve Base (Resources)
Reserve Base
Reserves0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
Tonnes
Aus
tral
ia
Indi
a
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Nor
way
Can
ada
Oth
erco
untr
ies
Sou
thA
fric
a
Bra
zil
Mal
aysi
a
World Thorium Reserves and Reserve Base (Resources)
Reserve Base
Reserves
US Geological Survey claims that:• Norway has one of the major
thorium reserves in the world.
The Geological Survey of Norway:• Thorium has never been
specifically explored for• Fen Complex most promising• Low concentration 0.1 – 0.4 wt%• Grain size too small for the
traditional flotation processes• Norway has a potential resource• More investigations necessary to
define as a reserve
Gen IV Molten Salt Reactor
Characteristics•Th-232+U-233 in molten salts
•Thermal neutrons•Closed fuel cycle•700–800 °C temperature out
•Recycling of actinides•1000 MWe
Great advantage• Fuel development avoided
Energy Committee’s statements on bioenergy
November 28, 2007
•World’s agricultural products must meet the increasing demands
for food rather than being used for biofuels.
•World’s forestry products must not exceed the growth in order
not to jeopardize biodiversity and climate.
•It should be possible to double the global bioenergy production,
currently 13 000 TWh per year, primarily by using residues from
agriculture and forestry.
•The Swedish annual bioenergy production being now 100 TWh
may be increased by 40 %.
World´s forestsSource UNFAO
•4× 109 hectars of forests (30% of surface)
•7.3 × 106 hectars disappearing each year
•In Africa 90% of all wood produced is
burnt
•75% of bioenergy come from forests
•Bioenergy represent 80% of all
renewable energy
Nordic forests
* USA+Canada 44× 109 m3
* European Union 13× 109 m3
Sweden Norway Finland Denmark
Forest portion of land 50% 20% 68% 10%
Forest stock (5× 109 m3)* 50% 13% 36% 1%
Growth/year (180× 106
m3)
47% 12% 40% 2%
Nordic land areas
Sweden Norway Finland Denmark
EU-25
Aral land (Mha) 2.7 0.87 2.23 2.84
178
Forests (Mha) 23.0 7.03 20.3
0.51 137
Forest biomass yield, Sweden, 2004
Per-Olov Nilsson, Report 23, 2006, Skogsstyrelsen
34%
21%
19%
75.9 Mt → 380TWh
26 %
Global agriculture products in 2005Food and Agriculture Statistics Global Oulook
•Cereals 2,228 million tonnes
•Meat 265 million tonnes
•Fruits/Vegetables 1,392 million tonnes
•Roots/Tubers 712 million tonnes
•Pulses 62 million tonnes
•Oilseeds/Nuts 146 million tonnes
•Sugar Crops 1,532 million tonnes
•Tobacco 7 million tonnes
•Fibre Crops 29 million tonnes
Σ= 6,4 milliards tonnes
∼ 1 ton/capita
Energy content of agriculture products
Cereals 33,4 EJ
Fruits & Vegetables 2,8 EJ
Roots & Tubers 2,7 EJ
Pulses 0,8 EJ
Oilseeds & Nuts 10,2 EJ
Sugar Crops 6,6 EJ
Tobacco 0,1 EJ
Fibre Crops 0,4 EJ
Σ 57,0 EJ → 16 000 TWh
Energy values 2005
Fossil energy production = 100 000
TWh
All agriculture products = 16 000
TWh
Food for 6.6 milliard people ≅ 6 000
TWh*)
*) 2.5 kWh/day x 365 x 6.6 x 109 = 6 000 TWh
Brazil’s potential*
*) From the presentation by Prof. Donato Aranda, Federal Univ. Rio de
Janeiro
at the seminar Future of Forest Bioenergy, Royal Swedish Engineering
Academy of
Sciences, Stockholm, 2007
Raw Material Production / ha (kg)
Quantity of Product / liter
of EthanolQuantity of Ethanol / ha
SUGAR CANE 85,000 12 kg 7,080 liter
CORN 10,000 2.8 kg 3,570 liter
Source: Brazilian Agricultural Ministry
Physical ProductivityPhysical Productivity
Sugar Cane Output/Input Energy ~ 8.2*
Ethanol production in 2006: 16 billion liters
*Goldenberg, J.L.C Renewable Energies, Island Press, 1993
Soybean Biodiesel (Output/input energy ~ 3)*
* NREL (USA) http://www.nrel.gov/docs/legosti/fy98/24089.pdf
Solar energy
A master thesis work at Chalmers University of Technology on
Alternative
Solar Power Technologies was published May 2007 by Erik Pihl,
Joanna
Wiberg and Erik Nilsson and their conclusions is that Concentrating
Solar
Power facilities in the South is one of the most interesting options.
Alternativa solkraftsystem
Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)
1. Concentrating solar radiation a factor 25-3000
2. Radiation converted to heat in a receiver
3. Heat carrying medium brings heat from the receiver to the power cycle. Possibilities for heat storage.
Alternativ solkraftsystem
Power Tower in Spain
← CESA-1 Power Tower demonstratio
n plant at PSA
(Plataforma Solar de
Almeria),.
Alternativa solkraftsystem
Principle
’Parabolic trough’
Parabolic troughs
1D sun tracing
Concentrating on tubes
Central electricity production
Mineral oil, steam or molten salt as a medium
Alternativa solkraftsystem
PrincipleParabolic Dish
Parabola and motor in one unit
Follows the sun
Variations
Stirling motor or micro-gas turbine,
Possibility central steam
Symposium on Solar PowerRoyal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm 5 May 2008
Si Photovoltaics Technology, W. Hoffmann, Solar Business Group, Applied Materials
GmbH
Silicon Technology versus Thin Film Technology , F. Holzapfel, Q-Cells AG, Thalheim
CIGS Thin Film Technology, Marika Edoff, PV Research Team, Ångström Solar Center
External Costs for Solar Electricity, P. Preiss, Institut für Energiewirtschaft, Stuttgart
University
The CSP DESERTEC Project in Middle East and North Africa, G. Knies, Hamburg
Solar Energy in the Swedish Energy System, B. Karlsson, Lund University
Solar Electricity for Buildings, B. Stridh, ABB Corporate Research, Västerås
Solar Energy – The Power Industry´s view, J. Asmussen, Vattenfall, Sweden
Conclusions
•1. Sweden currently has a gold-plated energy mix with 27%
renewables.
•2. EU:s challenge is to increase its renewables from 7 to 20% by
2020.
•3. New bioenergy should come only from forestry and agriculture
residues.
•4. Concentrated-Solar-Power devices will give a steady electricity
supply.
•5. Nuclear energy is very sustainable even compared with the
renewables!
• 6. Nuclear energy is essential for reducingCO2 emissions by
20-30 %.
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