View
216
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
Economics Report
Morgan Stanley
No, the Sky is Not Falling
USD structurally sound, but may weaken for cyclical reasons.
April 2006
Stephen L. Jen Stephen.Jen@morganstanley.com
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.
April 2006
Currency Economics
Stephen.Jen@morganstanley.com +44-20-7425-8583 Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.2
Slide 2
Slide 5
Slide 7
Slide 12
Slide 18
Slide 22How much will the dollar ‘need’ to fall?
China’s CNY policy
4. Dollar the hegemonic currency
3. Excess savings in Asia
2. ‘De facto dollar zone’
1. USD index not overvalued
April 2006
Currency Economics
Stephen.Jen@morganstanley.com +44-20-7425-8583 Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.3
The USD is no longer over-valued
Source: Morgan Stanley Research
USD Actual and Long Run (Non-Linear) Fair Value
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
USD Misvaluation Confidence Based on Long Run Fair Value (Non-Linear Filter)
-100%
0%
100% Undervalued
Overvalued
April 2006
Currency Economics
Stephen.Jen@morganstanley.com +44-20-7425-8583 Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.4
Valuation Matrix – G10
Source: Morgan Stanley Research
Q4 2005 EUR/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY GBP/USD EUR/CHF EUR/GBP EUR/NOK EUR/SEK USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USDQ-End Spot 1.18 118.03 139.23 1.72 1.55 0.69 7.99 9.39 1.17 0.73 0.68PPP - CPI 1.12 99.84 109.08 1.63 1.38 0.68 7.62 8.65 1.42 0.62 0.54PPP - PPI 1.16 82.86 108.15 1.80 1.36 0.66 8.66 8.90 1.17 0.69 0.63PPP - TPI 1.22 106.97 136.44 1.61 1.63 0.76 8.24 8.73 1.43 0.62 0.51SP - CPI/Long 1.06 96.58 109.75 1.63 1.43 0.69 7.78 9.02 1.50 0.62 0.55SP - CPI/Short 1.10 101.31 108.98 1.63 1.40 0.68 7.68 8.70 1.46 0.62 0.54SP - PPI/Long 1.16 80.85 108.31 1.91 1.44 0.67 8.64 9.09 1.22 0.69 0.63SP - PPI/Short 1.15 82.96 108.08 1.79 1.40 0.66 8.66 8.90 1.21 0.70 0.64MM - Flex 1.05 140.78 92.49 1.62 1.31 0.71 8.17 8.12 1.27 0.62 0.55MM - Sticky 1.07 143.19 92.49 1.61 1.31 0.68 8.17 8.12 1.30 0.65 0.55RID - Short 1.24 104.67 134.50 1.59 1.63 0.71 8.65 8.48 1.23 0.74 0.60RID - Long 1.21 100.84 127.89 1.58 1.52 0.78 8.26 8.31 1.21 0.74 0.60BEER I 1.46 108.52 143.70 1.70 1.46 0.70 8.15 9.15 1.17 0.79 0.68BEER II 1.48 109.72 146.77 1.67 1.46 0.70 8.15 9.15 1.17 0.76 0.68
Median 1.16 101.31 109.08 1.63 1.43 0.69 8.17 8.73 1.23 0.69 0.60Mean 1.19 104.55 117.43 1.67 1.44 0.70 8.22 8.72 1.29 0.68 0.59Weighted Mean 1.20 97.86 109.94 1.69 1.39 0.70 8.17 8.86 1.25 0.67 0.60
High 1.48 143.19 146.77 1.91 1.63 0.78 8.66 9.15 1.50 0.79 0.68Low 1.05 80.85 92.49 1.58 1.31 0.66 7.62 8.12 1.17 0.62 0.51
02/03/2006 EUR/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY GBP/USD EUR/CHF EUR/GBP EUR/NOK EUR/SEK USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USDCurrent spot 1.20 116.13 139.16 1.75 1.57 0.69 8.03 9.47 1.13 0.75 0.67% Misalignment 3.45% 14.62% 27.57% 7.00% 9.46% -0.49% -1.79% 8.51% -7.65% 7.61% 11.14%
Preferred Model RID(2) SP(1) PPP(1) SP(3) PPP(1) BEER(1) BEER(1) SP(3) BEER(1) SP(3) SP(4)
April 2006
Currency Economics
Stephen.Jen@morganstanley.com +44-20-7425-8583 Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.5
Slide 2
Slide 5
Slide 7
Slide 12
Slide 18
Slide 22How much will the dollar ‘need’ to fall?
China’s CNY policy
4. Dollar the hegemonic currency
3. Excess savings in Asia
2. ‘De facto dollar zone’
1. USD index not overvalued
April 2006
Currency Economics
Stephen.Jen@morganstanley.com +44-20-7425-8583 Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.6
De facto Dollar zone
Source: BEA, Morgan Stanley Research
Trade Balance Against:World Non USD Zone
US -6.0% -3.2%USD Zone -2.3 NA - Asia only -2.4 NA
April 2006
Currency Economics
Stephen.Jen@morganstanley.com +44-20-7425-8583 Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.7
Slide 2
Slide 5
Slide 7
Slide 12
Slide 18
Slide 22How much will the dollar ‘need’ to fall?
China’s CNY policy
4. Dollar the hegemonic currency
3. Excess savings in Asia
2. ‘De facto dollar zone’
1. USD index not overvalued
April 2006
Currency Economics
Stephen.Jen@morganstanley.com +44-20-7425-8583 Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.8
Feldstein-Horioka a bit less puzzling
Feldstein-Horioka’s 1960-1974 sample: β = 0.89
I/Y
S/Y45-degree line
A1
A2
B1
B2
β (1960-1979) β (1980-2004)
OECD 0.60 0.33EU 0.52 0.13Asia ex-Japan 0.56 0.39Latin America 0.36 0.27
I/Y(i, t) = α(i) + α(t) + β (S/Y)(i,t) + ε(i,t)
April 2006
Currency Economics
Stephen.Jen@morganstanley.com +44-20-7425-8583 Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.9
Excess Savings in Asia
C/A surpluses exploded after the Asian Crisis in 1997/98
Asia’s savings rates have been ultra-stable …
But investment rates have been extraordinarily volatile
Asian C/A surpluses Savings and Investment
Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research
Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Per
cent
of
GD
P
Japan
SE Asia
North Asia
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Pe
rce
nt
of
GD
P North Asia Savings
North Asia Investment
SE Asia Investment
SE Asia Savings
April 2006
Currency Economics
Stephen.Jen@morganstanley.com +44-20-7425-8583 Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.10
Abundant External Financing
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005F 2006F
Japan
Euro-area
China
AsiaAsia
C/A as relative percentage of US C/A
OPEC OPEC
Euro-area Japan
China
Japan
AXJC
OPEC
2006 est.41.9%USD
337.1bn
2006 est.44.9%USD
361.7bn
Rest of World
Source: IMF WEO
April 2006
Currency Economics
Stephen.Jen@morganstanley.com +44-20-7425-8583 Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.11
As wrong as the JGB call in ‘98
Mirror images
• Because of the extremely high level of public debt, RE may be degenerating.
• Private savings may more than offset public dis-savings.
Ricardian Equivalence Sort of Held in Japan Watch the Corporates, Not Households
Source: DataStream and Morgan Stanley Research
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
FY90 FY92 FY94 FY96 FY98 FY00 FY02
Private Sector Savings
Public Sector Savings
(as % of GDP)
Net Savings Position of Private/Public Sector
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
FY90 FY92 FY94 FY96 FY98 FY00 FY02
Total Private
Non-Financial
Financial
Households
(billion yen) Net Private Sector Savings
April 2006
Currency Economics
Stephen.Jen@morganstanley.com +44-20-7425-8583 Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.12
Slide 2
Slide 5
Slide 7
Slide 12
Slide 18
Slide 22How much will the dollar ‘need’ to fall?
China’s CNY policy
4. Dollar the hegemonic currency
3. Excess savings in Asia
2. ‘De facto dollar zone’
1. USD index not overvalued
April 2006
Currency Economics
Stephen.Jen@morganstanley.com +44-20-7425-8583 Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.13
Globalisation of the goods
market
vs
Globalisation of the asset
markets
April 2006
Currency Economics
Stephen.Jen@morganstanley.com +44-20-7425-8583 Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.14
The Dollar is special, especially to Asia
Official Private
Medium of Exchange Intervention Vehicle
Store of Value Reserves Banking
Unit of Account Peg Invoice
Source: Kenen (1983)
The Dollar's Facilitating Role
As International Money
April 2006
Currency Economics
Stephen.Jen@morganstanley.com +44-20-7425-8583 Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.15
Two-dimensional Reserve DiversificationUSTs most liquid sovereign market
Source: US Federal Reserve, IMF, BIS, BEA, US Treasury, Morgan Stanley Research
Diversification in two dimensions
Not necessarily USD negative
Source: Morgan Stanley Research
Source: BIS, DataStream, US Federal ReserveNote. US Sovereign bonds include Agency or quasi-government bonds (USD3.5 trillion) in addition to US Sovereigns (USD5.7 trillion)
Sovereign
Sovereign bonds
excluding JGBs Corporate
Bonds BondsMarket Value
US 40% 57% 57% 47%Japan 30.0% 0.0% 16.1% 12.7%EMU 23.1% 32.9% 21.6% 19.4%
Germany 4.9% 7.0% 2.9% 4.1%France 5.0% 7.1% 5.4% 5.4%Italy 6.5% 9.2% 4.9% 2.7%Netherlands 1.2% 1.7% 1.3% 1.8%Belgium 1.4% 2.0% 0.9% 0.9%Ireland 0.2% 0.3% 1.1% 0.4%Spain 1.9% 2.7% 4.1% 2.3%Portugal 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2%Greece 0.9% 1.3% 0.0% 0.4%Austria 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5%Luxembourg 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%Finland 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.7%
U.K. 2.9% 4.1% 0.7% 10.4%Switzerland 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 3.0%Sweden 0.7% 0.9% 0.6% 1.2%Australia 0.4% 0.6% 2.2% 2.4%New Zealand 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%Canada 2.4% 3.5% 2.1% 4.0%
Amounts outstanding
Depth and Liquidity of the MarketsOf Various Potential Reserve Assets(In percent of total market caps)
Equities
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
TIC NYFRB BIS IMF NIIP
USD Share of Official Reserve Holdings
Corporate Bonds
Agency
Sovereign
USD G3 G4-G10
Asset
Currency
April 2006
Currency Economics
Stephen.Jen@morganstanley.com +44-20-7425-8583 Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.16
Weak evidence of wholesale diversification
I II III IV Ip IIp IIIp IVp
All countriesTotal foreign exchange holdings 3,298,997 3,346,175 3,442,890 3,749,063 3,858,660 3,948,534 4,052,712 4,170,580 Allocated reserves 1/ 73.5% 72.4% 71.8% 70.4% 69.4% 68.6% 67.5% 67.4% Claims in U.S. dollars 67.4% 67.7% 67.2% 65.8% 65.5% 66.1% 66.4% 66.5% Claims in pounds sterling 2.7% 2.7% 3.1% 3.4% 3.6% 3.6% 3.7% 3.7% Claims in Japanese yen 4.0% 3.9% 3.6% 3.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.7% 3.6% Claims in Swiss francs 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Claims in euros 23.7% 23.6% 24.0% 25.0% 25.1% 24.9% 24.4% 24.4% Claims in other currencies 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% Unallocated reserves 2/ 36.1% 38.0% 39.3% 42.0% 44.1% 45.7% 48.1% 48.4%
Industrial countriesTotal foreign exchange holdings 1,268,588 1,258,727 1,269,547 1,314,596 1,301,681 1,294,605 1,281,605 1,292,249 Allocated reserves 1/ 99.8% 99.7% 99.7% 99.7% 99.7% 99.6% 99.6% 99.5% Claims in U.S. dollars 73.7% 73.9% 73.3% 71.5% 72.1% 73.7% 73.7% 73.7% Claims in pounds sterling 1.3% 1.4% 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% Claims in Japanese yen 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.6% 3.3% 3.3% 3.4% 3.3% Claims in Swiss francs 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Claims in euros 19.4% 19.2% 19.6% 20.9% 20.4% 19.1% 19.0% 19.2% Claims in other currencies 1.8% 1.7% 1.8% 2.0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% Unallocated reserves 2/ 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
Developing countriesTotal foreign exchange holdings 2,030,409 2,087,449 2,173,344 2,434,467 2,556,978 2,653,929 2,771,107 2,878,331 Allocated reserves 1/ 57.0% 56.0% 55.4% 54.6% 53.9% 53.5% 52.7% 53.0% Claims in U.S. dollars 60.6% 61.1% 60.9% 60.2% 59.4% 59.3% 60.1% 60.5% Claims in pounds sterling 4.2% 4.1% 4.3% 4.9% 5.0% 4.9% 5.1% 5.1% Claims in Japanese yen 4.4% 4.4% 3.9% 4.1% 4.3% 3.9% 3.9% 3.8% Claims in Swiss francs 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Claims in euros 28.5% 28.3% 28.7% 29.0% 29.6% 30.1% 29.1% 28.8% Claims in other currencies 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% Unallocated reserves 2/ 43.0% 44.0% 44.6% 45.4% 46.1% 46.5% 47.3% 47.0%
2004 2005
April 2006
Currency Economics
Stephen.Jen@morganstanley.com +44-20-7425-8583 Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.17
Holdings of US Treasuries
Foreign holders All Holders
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04
Federal Reserve US ChinaJapan OPEC OtherTotal
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003
Total
Federal Reserve
US
Foreigners
Source: BEA and Morgan Stanley Research Source: BEA and Morgan Stanley Research
April 2006
Currency Economics
Stephen.Jen@morganstanley.com +44-20-7425-8583 Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.18
Slide 2
Slide 5
Slide 7
Slide 12
Slide 18
Slide 22How much will the dollar ‘need’ to fall?
China’s CNY policy
4. Dollar the hegemonic currency
3. Excess savings in Asia
2. ‘De facto dollar zone’
1. USD index not overvalued
April 2006
Currency Economics
Stephen.Jen@morganstanley.com +44-20-7425-8583 Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.19
A ‘CNY Event’ in H1 2006
7.70
7.75
7.80
7.85
7.90
7.95
8.00
8.05
8.10
8.15
7/21
/200
5
8/15
/200
5
09/0
7/20
05
9/30
/200
5
10/2
5/20
05
11/1
7/20
05
12/1
2/20
05
01/0
4/20
06
1/27
/200
6
2/21
/200
6
3/16
/200
6
04/1
0/20
06
05/0
3/20
06
5/26
/200
6
6/20
/200
6
7/13
/200
6
08/0
7/20
06
8/30
/200
6
9/22
/200
6
10/1
7/20
06
11/0
9/20
06
12/0
4/20
06
12/2
7/20
06
7.70
7.75
7.80
7.85
7.90
7.95
8.00
8.05
8.10
8.15
USDCNY trend 2 USDCNY trend 3 USDCNY USDCNY trend 1
Gear 1
Gear 3
Gear 2
8.00
8.02
8.04
8.06
8.08
8.10
8.12
Actual Fitted
"Gear2/Gear1" ratio=2.2
"Gear3/Gear2" ratio=2.3
April 2006
Currency Economics
Stephen.Jen@morganstanley.com +44-20-7425-8583 Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.20
Accelerating rate of crawl of USD/CNY
-0.001
-0.0008
-0.0006
-0.0004
-0.0002
0
-0.02
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
Daily Rate of Crawl (20D MA)Daily Damping Coefficient (20D MA)
April 2006
Currency Economics
Stephen.Jen@morganstanley.com +44-20-7425-8583 Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.21
Pre-Funding of Future Private FlowsIn mlns In % In mlns In % In mlns In %of USDs GDP of USDs GDP of USDs GDP
1982 64 0.0% 151 0.2% 14,280 1.3%1983 798 0.0% 280 0.3% 33,910 2.8%1984 2,653 0.0% 331 0.4% 70,500 5.6%1985 1,019 0.0% 922 1.0% 137,660 10.2%1986 1,509 0.0% 2,148 2.0% 257,930 12.8%1987 2,294 0.8% 2,663 2.0% 373,970 15.4%1988 3,484 0.9% 3,779 2.1% 507,600 17.2%1989 4,584 1.1% 5,086 2.3% 667,840 22.6%1990 5,655 1.5% 6,638 2.6% 756,130 24.9%1991 6,898 1.8% 7,928 2.7% 869,370 25.0%1992 11,348 2.6% 9,014 2.9% 920,700 24.3%1993 16,345 3.0% 11,340 3.3% 998,280 22.9%1994 18,725 3.6% 16,281 4.1% 1,108,350 23.1%1995 20,646 2.9% 22,740 4.7% 1,216,910 23.1%1996 23,388 2.8% 33,738 6.5% 1,340,970 28.6%1997 26,850 3.0% 37,067 7.8% 1,414,090 32.9%1998 33,314 3.5% 43,805 13.8% 1,533,950 39.0%1999 45,623 4.6% 46,721 11.5% 1,710,650 38.3%2000 57,846 5.4% 52,242 11.4% 1,825,560 38.5%2001 85,386 7.3% 60,184 12.8% 1,970,850 47.3%2002 99,999 7.9% 67,833 12.4% 2,088,820 52.5%
2003 96,863 6.9% 75,594 12.5% 2,293,870 53.4%
China Korea Japan
Year to see FDI and Additional% Nominal % Annual RMB US$300 bln portfolio inv. outflows
Scenarios Growth Appreciation in outflows in % GDP in US$ blns.1 10% 0% 10 7.0% $2042 10% 5% 6 7.0% $2643 10% 0% 5 10% by 2010 $2924 10% 5% 4 10% by 2010 $3775 10% 0% N/A 15% by 2010 $438
6 10% 5% N/A 15% by 2010 $566
• China’s private sector’s holdings of foreign financial assets are extremely low in absolute terms, relative to GDP, and relative to those of Japan and Korea.
• Using innocuous assumptions, it would not be difficult to imagine scenarios where cumulative private sector outflows could total US$0.5 trillion in five years’ time. (Scenario 6 below)
April 2006
Currency Economics
Stephen.Jen@morganstanley.com +44-20-7425-8583 Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.22
Slide 2
Slide 5
Slide 7
Slide 12
Slide 18
Slide 22How much will the dollar ‘need’ to fall?
China’s CNY policy
4. Dollar the hegemonic currency
3. Excess savings in Asia
2. ‘De facto dollar zone’
1. USD index not overvalued
April 2006
Currency Economics
Stephen.Jen@morganstanley.com +44-20-7425-8583 Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.23
Wrong to ask the dollar to do all the work
Current
Spot 20% 30% 40% 90%
EUR/USD 1.21 1.5 1.7 2.0 12.1
USD/JPY 118 94 83 71 12
USD/CNY 8.00 6.4 5.6 4.8 0.8
GBP/USD 1.74 2.2 2.5 2.9 17.4
% USD deval
Author Date Title Main Result
M. Obstfeld & K. Rogoff
2000 “Perspectives on OECD Capital Market Integration: Implications for US Current Account Adjustment”
16% RER depreciation will be needed to eliminate the CA
M. Mussa 2004 “Exchange Rate Adjustments Needed to Reduce Global Payments Imbalances”
RER needs to depreciate 20% to reach a CA of 2%.
S. Edwards 2005 "Is the US Current Account Deficit Sustainable? And If So How Costly Is Adjustment Likely to Be?"
A “sustainable" CA would imply a 28% cumulated depreciation in the TWI RER.
O.Blanchard, F. Giavazzi, & F.Sa.
2005 “The US Current Account and the Dollar” The required real depreciation of the dollar to eliminate the CA deficit is in the range of 40 to 90%, depending on the role of valuation effects.
M. Obstfeld & K.Rogoff
2005 “The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited”
A rebalancing of the CA requires 20-25% of TWI RER.
• Don’t just ask the question, ‘how much will the dollar need to correct?’
• Ask also whether the implied exchange rates make any sense, or are ‘acceptable.’ If the answer to this second question is ‘no,’ then the answer to the first question must not be correct or relevant.
April 2006
Currency Economics
Stephen.Jen@morganstanley.com +44-20-7425-8583 Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.24
Explaining the US household saving rate
• US household saving ratio (S) can be explained by three factors:
(1) household stock market wealth ratio (SE)
(2) household real estate wealth ratio (RE)
(3) US long bond yield (TB)
• Our estimation results suggest that:
1. The explanatory variables account for 80% of the total savings rate variability during the last 50 years.
2. Savings are particularly sensitive to housing wealth.
• Simulated Fed fund hikes along with gently decreasing Household and Equity wealth ratios would imply a positive saving rate turn by end 2006.
Actual and Fitted Values (1953Q2-2005Q2)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1953Q2 1962Q2 1971Q2 1980Q2 1989Q2 1998Q2
Percent
Fitted savings rate
US private savings rate
“Fed Fund Hike” Along With Decreasing Residential and Equity Wealth Scenario Simulation
Date RE SE TB S
2005Q4 2.201 0.661 4.65 -1.036
2006Q1 2.179 0.655 4.70 -0.738
2004Q2 2.157 0.648 4.95 -0.370
2006Q3 2.136 0.641 5.05 -0.059
2006Q4 2.114 0.635 5.25 0.284
Source: BEA, Morgan Stanley Research Estimates
Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimates
April 2006
Currency Economics
Stephen.Jen@morganstanley.com +44-20-7425-8583 Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.25
The world is ‘balancing up’
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
Q1.19
90
Q1.19
91
Q1.19
92
Q1.19
93
Q1.19
94
Q1.19
95
Q1.19
96
Q1.19
97
Q1.19
98
Q1.19
99
Q1.20
00
Q1.20
01
Q1.20
02
Q1.20
03
Q1.20
04
Q1.20
05
US X/M
April 2006
Currency Economics
Stephen.Jen@morganstanley.com +44-20-7425-8583 Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.26
Biography
Stephen Jen is a Managing Director at Morgan Stanley and serves as the Global Head of Currency Research for the firm.
Prior to joining the firm, Stephen spent four years as an economist with the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC,. In addition, Stephen was actively involved in the design of the IMF’s framework to provide debt relief to highly indebted countries. Stephen has also worked for the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and the World Bank and has been a lecturer at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business.
Stephen holds a PhD in Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, with concentrations in International Economics and Macroeconomics. He also earned a BSc in Electrical Engineering summa cum laude from the University of California, Irvine.
Recommended