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E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE:U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
WEEK OF 02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
Morning Consult uses the same 5 questions that the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers uses to measure consumer sentiment.1
QUESTION #1 : PERSONAL FINANCES – CURRENT CONDITION
We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days.
Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?
QUESTION #2: PERSONAL FINANCES – 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS
Now looking ahead--do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?
QUESTION #3: BUSINESS CONDITIONS – 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS
Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole--do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?
QUESTION #4: BUSINESS CONDITIONS – 5 YEAR EXPECTATIONS
Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely--that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?
QUESTION #5: CURRENT BUYING CONDITIONS
About the big things people buy for their homes--such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television,
and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?
MONTH L Y : U N I V E R S I T Y O F M I C H I G A N
The Survey of Consumers is an ongoing nationally representative survey based on approximately 600 cellular phone interviews with adults living in households in the coterminous United States. Preliminary results are released mid-month based on the first two weeks of interviews, which reflects about two thirds of the full monthly sample.
DA I L Y : M O R N I N G C O N S U L T
The Economic Intelligence Survey is an ongoing nationally representative survey based on approximately 7,500 daily and 210,000 monthly online interviews with adults living in households across the entire United States. Final results are released daily, which allows for unprecedented analysis of breaking news across geographic regions, economic variables, and demographic characteristics.
M E T H O D O L O G Y
Overall, the methodology used to measure trends in the economic expectations of consumers is in a state of flux. Rapid changes in technology and social media are unlikely to slow anytime soon. It is hard to imagine that in 10 or 20 years the measurement methodology will not have been transformed in some as yet undetermined ways. The fast pace of technological and social change must be confronted with a robust research methodology that preserves a consistent series of high quality measurements on economic expectations.
UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN PROFESSOR RICHARD CURTIN 7TH JOINT EC / OECD WORKSHOP: NOVEMBER 30, 2015
WHY WE CREATED MORNING CONSULT ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE
Frequency + Scale = Key Improvements
Same Standard Questions Used to Calculate U.S. Consumer Confidence Indices
1. See University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, "Index Calculations.". Available at https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=24770 2
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S
E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y
Key TakeawaysWeekly Dashboard
2-Year Trend Analysis: U.S. Consumer Sentiment (ICS)
6-Week Snapshot: U.S. Daily Consumer Sentiment (ICS)Indices Over Time
C O N S U M E R I N D I C E S
Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS)Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE)Index of Current Economic Conditions (ICC)
I N D I V I D U A L Q U E S T I O N S
Personal Finances: Current ConditionsPersonal Finances: 12 Month ExpectationsBusiness Conditions: 12 Month ExpectationsBusiness Conditions: 5 Year ExpectationsCurrent Buying Conditions
M E T H O D O L O G Y
57
8
9
10
112437
5053565962
65
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY TAKEAWAYS(Week of 02/03/2020 - 02/09/2020)
U.S. consumer confidence slightly declined last week as coronavirus fears escalated and concerns about the outbreak began to drive down stock prices. Morning Consult’s Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) fell 0.6 points and currently stands at 114.8, which is close to where it started at the beginning of the year.
• This week’s drop is less than half the magnitude of the week-over-week decline that followed the height of the U.S.-Iran conflict in early January, and confidence remains elevated compared to August-September 2019. (Slide 6)
• Consumers are most concerned about future economic performance, particularly U.S. businesses. Morning Consult’s Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE), which measures performance of future business and personal financial expectations, fell 0.8 points to 115.3. The dip was particularly pronounced among those who work in the financial and transportation sectors, dropping 4.7 and 4.9 points, respectively. (Slide 19)
• Consumers’ expectations of business conditions 12 months and five years into the future suffered the most this past week, both of which fell 1.2 points. Global businesses are struggling to address disruptions to their supply chains, and Wall Street investors are increasingly nervous that such disturbances will harm corporate profits.
• As previously reported, U.S. consumers primarily view the coronavirus as a risk to global economic growth, than a risk to U.S. economic growth and finally as a risk to economic growth in their local economies. This week’s data is consistent with those findings. The coronavirus has yet to affect U.S. job or wage growth and consumers’ views of their personal financial conditions remained essentially unchanged.
• The daily ICS fell 2.1 points from Tuesday to Thursday before stabilizing and then rebounding over the weekend. This rebound alleviates concerns of a freefall in consumer confidence in the near term, but falling stock prices are likely to continue to exert downward pressure on consumer confidence in the coming weeks. In the medium term, the coronavirus outbreak may end up harming consumers via weaker business confidence and slower business investment.
5
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
6
WEEKLY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
7/7/19
7/14/1
9
7/21/1
9
7/28/
19
8/4/1
9
8/11/
19
8/18
/19
8/25
/199/
1/19
9/8/
19
9/15
/19
9/22
/19
9/29
/19
10/6/
19
10/13
/19
10/20
/19
10/27
/19
11/3/1
9
11/10
/19
11/17/
19
11/24
/19
12/1/
19
12/8
/19
12/15
/19
12/2
2/19
12/2
9/19
1/5/2
0
1/12/
20
1/19/
20
1/26/
20
2/2/
20
2/9/
20
2/16
/20
2/23
/20
Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) Business Conditions: 12 Month Expectations
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
WEEKLY DASHBOARD(Week of 02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
Value Weekly Change* Intraweek Volatility 30-Day Trend
ICS (Consumer Sentiment) 114.8 ↓ 0.6 Stable Increasing
ICE (Future Expectations) 115.3 ↓ 0.8 Stable Increasing
ICC (Current Conditions) 114.0 ↓ 0.3 Elevated Increasing
Personal Finances: Current Conditions 105.5 ↓ 0.4 Stable Increasing
Personal Finances: 12 Month Expectations 129.8 ↓ 0.1 Stable Decreasing
Business Conditions: 12 Month Expectations 114.9 ↓ 1.2 Stable Increasing
Business Conditions: 5 Year Expectations 101.2 ↓ 1.2 Stable Increasing
Current Buying Conditions 122.5 ↓ 0.3 Elevated Increasing
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 7
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
10/5/18: Lowest unemployment rate in 49 years
1/25/19: U.S. Government shutdown ends
12/22/18: U.S. Government shutdown begins
8/1/19: Trump confirms increase in tariffs on Chinese goods
5/5/19: Trump tweets intent to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, including final consumer goods3/1/18: U.S.
trade war begins
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
101
103
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20
Index of Consumer Sentiment (Jan 1, 2018 – Feb 23, 2020)
5/5/19: Trump tweets intent to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, including final consumer goods
10/5/18: Lowest unemployment rate in 49 years
3/1/19: U.S. trade war begins
8/14/19: 10-2 yield curve inverts
11/15/19: All yield curves uninvert
10/11/19: US announces “phase one” trade deal with China
8/1/19: Trump confirms tariff increase on Chinese goods
1/25/19: U.S. Government shutdown ends
2-Year Trend Analysis: U.S. Consumer Sentiment (ICS)
Mor
ning
Con
sult
Inde
x (O
nlin
e)
Morning Consult Daily Morning Consult Monthly
7,500/day 210,000/month
University of Michigan Monthly
600/month
Michigan Index (P
hone)
Note: There are three primary reasons why Morning Consult and the University of Michigan appear on different axes: (1) Michigan deflates its values so that 1966 serves as its base year, which is not appropriate for Morning Consult’s data; (2) a higher percentage of survey respondents answer “Don’t Know” or “No Opinion” in Morning Consult’s Economic Intelligence Survey, thus providing a richer data set in terms of measuring respondents’ uncertainty; and (3) Morning Consult’s dramatically larger sample sizes reduce a mean-adjusted measure of variance.
12/22/18: U.S. Government shutdown begins
01/02/20:US kills Iranian general
8
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
6-Week Snapshot Analysis: Daily U.S. Consumer Sentiment (ICS)
9
113.3
113.9
113
112.8113.4
114
113.9
114.7
115.2
113.9
115114.5115.1
115.9
114.7
114.9
113.4
112.4
112.1 111.6
112.7
113.8113.5 113.3
114.4113.4
114.6
113.9
112.2
114.1
114.8
115.1115.3
114.1
114.9
113.3
114.2
115.1
114.9
112.9
114.1
115.1
113.2113.8 114.2
114.6 114.5
115.9
114.1
117.1
115.4
116.8
114.9
114.6
116.4
115.9
115 115
116 115.9
114.7
113.8 114.1
114.5
115.2115.2
107
111
114
118
94
96
100
102
12/19
/19
12/2
2/19
12/2
5/19
12/2
8/19
12/3
1/19
01/0
3/20
01/0
6/20
01/0
9/20
01/12
/20
01/15
/20
01/18
/20
01/2
1/20
01/2
4/20
01/2
7/20
01/3
0/20
02/0
2/20
02/0
5/20
02/0
8/20
02/11
/20
02/14
/20
02/17
/20
02/2
0/20
02/2
3/20
Morning Consult Daily (7,500/day)
University of Michigan Monthly (600/month)
Mor
ning
Con
sult
Inde
x (O
nlin
e)M
ichigan Index (Phone)
01/02/20: U.S. fatally attacks Iranian commander Soleimani
01/08/20: President Trump announces U.S. “ready to embrace peace”
01/15/20: U.S. and China sign phase one trade deal
01/30/20: WHO declares coronavirus epidemic global emergency
02/07/20: 225k jobs in Jan beats expectations
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
CONSUMER INDICES(7-Day Moving Average Over Past 365 Days)
10
100
105
110
115
120
Mar-2
019
Apr-2
019
May-2
019
Jun-
2019
Jul-2
019
Aug-
2019
Sep-
2019
Oct-2
019
Nov-2
019
Dec-2
019
Jan-
2020
Feb-
2020
Mar-2
020
ICC (Current Conditions) ICE (Future Expectations) ICS (Consumer Sentiment)
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT (ICS)
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT ( ICS ) OVER T IME(Weekly)
W E E K L Y I N D E X 5 2 - W E E K H I G H 5 2 - W E E K L O W
114.8 115.5 107.0(02/03/2020) (08/26/2019)(As of 02/23/2020)
12
109.7
109.7
110.5
109.5110.3
111
110.7 110.7
111
111.7112.6
111.1
110.3
110 110 109.9
110.4
111.4
111
112.3
111.7111.8 111.8
111.7
109.6
107.7
107.3 107
107.7108.3
107.7
108.5108.4
108.2
108.4109.1109.3110.2
110.8
111.3111.8 112
112.1
112.7114
114.8
112.8
113.9
114.6
114
115.5115.4
114.8
108
112
116
03/0
1/19
04/0
1/19
05/0
1/19
06/0
1/19
07/0
1/19
08/0
1/19
09/0
1/19
10/0
1/19
11/01
/19
12/0
1/19
01/0
1/20
02/0
1/20
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT (ICS)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 13
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Age
18-24 115.9 ↑ 0.4 117.4 109.5
25-34 118.7 ↓ 0.6 119.7 111.0
35-44 117.6 ↓ 0.1 117.7 108.6
45-54 114.1 ↓ 0.3 114.7 105.7
55-64 112.7 ↓ 1.0 113.7 103.9
65+ 110.8 ↓ 1.8 112.5 102.2
Demo: Gender
Male 120.4 ↓ 0.5 121.0 111.3
Female 109.5 ↓ 0.7 110.5 102.5
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT (ICS)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 14
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Income
Less Than $50K 108.3 ↓ 0.7 109.3 102.6
$50K-$100K 121.7 ↓ 0.1 121.7 111.7
$100K+ 128.2 ↓ 1.2 129.5 116.0
$100K-$150K 127.5 ↓ 1.3 128.7 115.6
$150-$200K 130.1 ↓ 1.2 131.3 114.3
$200-$250K 124.8 ↓ 3.3 131.1 110.6
$250K+ 133.7 ↑ 1.4 134.5 115.7
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT (ICS)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 15
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Education
Less Than College 114.3 ↓ 0.8 115.2 107.7
Bachelor's Degree 116.9 ↓ 0.2 117.3 106.9
Post-Grad 114.0 ↓ 0.2 114.6 102.5
Demo: Race/Ethnicity
African American 111.3 ↓ 1.3 113.4 104.2
Hispanic 115.4 0.0 116.3 108.1
Other 109.6 ↓ 1.0 110.7 102.4
White 115.5 ↓ 0.6 116.2 107.4
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT (ICS)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 16
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Employment Industry (Services Providing)
Educational Services 116.4 ↑ 1.1 117.2 105.3
Financial Activities 127.4 ↓ 4.3 131.7 112.9
Health Care 118.5 ↑ 0.8 120.0 108.9
Information 123.3 ↓ 1.9 125.2 111.2
Leisure and Hospitality 115.3 ↑ 1.8 119.9 98.3
Professional and Business Services 122.0 ↓ 1.3 123.3 107.9
Real Estate and Property 127.8 ↑ 2.7 134.1 114.2
Retail Trade 120.4 ↓ 0.2 120.6 109.0
Transportation 124.4 ↓ 4.0 128.4 113.3
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT (ICS)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 17
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Employment Industry (Goods Producing)
Agriculture 124.4 ↑ 3.9 130.8 109.6
Construction 131.4 ↑ 2.0 131.4 121.3
Manufacturing 127.2 ↓ 1.9 129.1 117.0
Demo: Employment Industry (Other)
Defense 127.5 ↑ 1.5 137.7 108.1
Other 117.2 ↑ 0.5 117.2 108.7
Public Administration 115.2 ↓ 4.7 132.6 97.1
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT (ICS)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 18
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: C-Suite, Owner, or Founder
Total 126.8 ↑ 0.6 126.8 114.9
Businesses with 1-5 Employees 121.6 ↑ 1.8 121.6 110.7
Businesses with 6-20 Employees 126.3 ↑ 0.6 129.6 109.0
Businesses with 21-100 Employees 136.7 ↓ 1.8 139.0 113.9
Businesses with More than 101 Employees 149.5 ↓ 6.4 157.5 122.5
Demo: Works in Sales or Business Development
Works in Sales or Business Development 125.8 ↑ 2.0 125.8 114.2
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT (ICS)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 19
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Works in Production, Operations, or Logistics
Total 123.0 ↑ 0.1 123.5 112.7
Businesses with 1-5 Employees 121.4 ↑ 0.8 125.1 104.5
Businesses with 6-20 Employees 126.8 ↑ 9.1 126.8 111.6
Businesses with 21-100 Employees 122.7 ↓ 2.1 127.4 111.8
Businesses with 101-500 Employees 123.9 ↑ 0.2 128.2 113.4
Businesses with 501-10,000 Employees 123.4 ↓ 2.3 125.7 110.3
Businesses with More than 10,000 Employees 120.7 ↑ 0.5 126.0 108.7
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT (ICS)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 20
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Housing Assets
Homeowners 118.7 ↓ 0.8 119.4 109.5
Renters 110.3 ↓ 0.7 111.1 104.0
Other 106.2 ↑ 0.9 108.0 101.8
Demo: Equity Market Investments
$50K+ 124.0 ↓ 0.3 124.3 112.5
Less than $50K 119.0 ↓ 1.6 120.6 109.9
None 109.3 ↓ 0.4 110.6 103.3
Demo: Homeowners with $50k+ in Equity Market Investments
Total 125.4 ↓ 0.1 125.5 113.2
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT (ICS)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 21
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Daily Media Consumers
The New York Times 115.4 ↑ 4.4 120.3 93.0
The Wall Street Journal 127.2 ↓ 8.4 135.5 108.6
Fox News Channel 143.3 ↓ 0.3 145.0 133.3
CNN 102.8 ↓ 0.4 105.1 90.9
MSNBC 97.7 ↓ 0.7 102.5 85.2
Twitter 119.8 ↑ 0.8 120.4 109.7
Facebook 116.7 ↓ 0.5 117.1 108.5
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT (ICS)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 22
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Political Ideology
Conservative 140.1 ↓ 0.2 140.3 131.1
Liberal 96.6 ↓ 0.3 98.0 87.7
Moderate 109.1 ↓ 0.6 109.7 100.9
Demo: Trump Approval
Approve 143.4 ↑ 0.2 143.4 135.6
Disapprove 92.9 ↓ 0.3 94.4 85.5
Demo: 2016 Presidential Election
Republican Donald Trump 145.7 ↓ 0.4 146.1 136.7
Democrat Hillary Clinton 91.5 ↓ 0.9 92.8 82.1
Someone Else 103.0 ↑ 0.2 103.0 93.7
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
FED D ISTR ICTS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
ICS
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 23
Federal Reserve Districts
Atlanta (6)
Boston (1)
Chicago (7)
Cleveland (4)
Dallas (11)
Kansas City (10)
Minneapolis (9)
New York (2)
Philadelphia (3)
Richmond (5)
San Francisco (12)
St. Louis (8)
Value108.6 to 111.8111.8 to 112.8112.8 to 118.2118.2 to 121.6
Districts ValueWeekly
Change*52-Week
High 52-Week Low
Boston (1) 108.6 ↑ 2.7 108.6 97.6
New York (2) 112.4 ↓ 1.1 113.5 103.9
Philadelphia (3) 112.8 ↑ 0.5 115.2 103.5
Cleveland (4) 112.8 ↓ 2.6 115.4 104.7
Richmond (5) 118.6 ↑ 0.8 118.7 109.7
Atlanta (6) 121.6 ↓ 0.2 122.1 113.2
Chicago (7) 111.5 ↓ 1.1 113.5 103.8
St. Louis (8) 117.7 ↑ 1.6 117.8 107.1
Minneapolis (9) 112.2 ↓ 1.7 115.3 102.7
Kansas City (10) 114.3 ↑ 0.6 114.3 105.9
Dallas (11) 119.0 ↓ 0.3 120.1 111.3
San Francisco (12) 111.0 ↓ 2.4 113.4 103.3
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (ICE)
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS ( ICE ) OVER T IME(Weekly)
W E E K L Y I N D E X 5 2 - W E E K H I G H 5 2 - W E E K L O W
115.3 116.3 106.2(02/03/2020) (08/19/2019)(As of 02/23/2020)
25
109.4
109.8
110.5
109.4
110.2110.9
110.2 110.4
110.9
112113.3
111.3
110.3
109.9
110.1
109.7
110.4
111.4111
112.8
112 112 112
111.6
109.6
107
106.2 106.3107.1
107.8
107.1
108.1
108.1
108.2 108.1
109.4 109.6
111
111.2111.7
112
112.6113
113.5
114.2
115.3
113.2
114.5
115.4
114.6
116.3
116.1
115.3
104
108
112
116
03/0
1/19
04/0
1/19
05/0
1/19
06/0
1/19
07/0
1/19
08/0
1/19
09/0
1/19
10/0
1/19
11/01
/19
12/0
1/19
01/0
1/20
02/0
1/20
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (ICE)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 26
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Age
18-24 117.8 ↑ 0.7 119.3 110.3
25-34 122.0 ↓ 0.9 123.6 112.7
35-44 119.6 0.0 120.7 109.4
45-54 115.6 ↓ 0.5 116.1 106.1
55-64 111.7 ↓ 1.2 112.9 101.6
65+ 107.5 ↓ 2.4 109.9 97.3
Demo: Gender
Male 121.0 ↓ 1.0 122.0 110.3
Female 110.0 ↓ 0.7 111.4 101.7
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (ICE)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 27
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Income
Less Than $50K 110.3 ↓ 0.9 111.6 103.5
$50K-$100K 121.0 ↓ 0.2 121.2 109.2
$100K+ 124.9 ↓ 1.6 126.5 110.4
$100K-$150K 124.6 ↓ 1.6 126.2 110.3
$150-$200K 126.8 ↓ 1.0 128.9 108.1
$200-$250K 118.6 ↓ 4.9 125.5 103.4
$250K+ 129.5 ↑ 0.9 130.2 108.9
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (ICE)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 28
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Education
Less Than College 116.0 ↓ 1.1 117.1 108.3
Bachelor's Degree 115.6 ↓ 0.1 116.3 103.4
Post-Grad 110.9 ↓ 0.1 112.1 97.8
Demo: Race/Ethnicity
African American 113.3 ↓ 0.8 115.8 105.2
Hispanic 116.7 ↑ 0.2 118.5 108.5
Other 109.5 ↓ 2.0 111.5 100.2
White 115.7 ↓ 1.0 116.7 106.0
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (ICE)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 29
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Employment Industry (Services Providing)
Educational Services 115.6 ↑ 2.7 116.6 102.8
Financial Activities 127.3 ↓ 4.7 131.9 110.7
Health Care 117.7 ↑ 0.2 120.7 107.3
Information 122.9 ↓ 0.8 125.0 108.6
Leisure and Hospitality 116.4 ↑ 0.3 122.6 95.5
Professional and Business Services 122.1 0.0 122.1 104.3
Real Estate and Property 126.0 ↑ 1.0 134.4 112.4
Retail Trade 122.6 ↑ 0.6 122.6 108.2
Transportation 126.4 ↓ 4.9 131.3 113.6
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (ICE)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 30
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Employment Industry (Goods Producing)
Agriculture 127.5 ↑ 2.4 135.8 108.7
Construction 133.9 ↑ 1.1 134.9 121.7
Manufacturing 126.4 ↓ 3.6 130.0 115.3
Demo: Employment Industry (Other)
Defense 128.7 ↑ 4.1 135.4 106.2
Other 117.5 ↑ 0.3 117.7 107.3
Public Administration 111.6 ↓ 7.1 137.9 96.1
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (ICE)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 31
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: C-Suite, Owner, or Founder
Total 127.9 ↑ 0.5 127.9 114.3
Businesses with 1-5 Employees 123.5 ↑ 1.4 123.5 112.0
Businesses with 6-20 Employees 126.7 ↑ 2.4 129.0 105.7
Businesses with 21-100 Employees 136.8 ↑ 1.3 140.8 114.2
Businesses with More than 101 Employees 147.6 ↓ 8.2 158.8 121.9
Demo: Works in Sales or Business Development
Works in Sales or Business Development 128.1 ↑ 3.9 128.1 114.0
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (ICE)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 32
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Works in Production, Operations, or Logistics
Total 123.2 ↓ 0.5 124.1 112.1
Businesses with 1-5 Employees 125.2 ↑ 0.4 127.4 107.9
Businesses with 6-20 Employees 129.6 ↑ 9.9 129.6 110.6
Businesses with 21-100 Employees 122.9 ↓ 2.7 130.5 111.2
Businesses with 101-500 Employees 123.3 ↓ 1.2 128.8 111.6
Businesses with 501-10,000 Employees 122.2 ↓ 4.0 126.1 108.5
Businesses with More than 10,000 Employees 120.1 ↑ 0.7 127.0 106.3
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (ICE)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 33
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Housing Assets
Homeowners 117.8 ↓ 1.0 118.8 107.2
Renters 112.4 ↓ 0.9 113.5 104.5
Other 110.4 ↑ 1.0 112.1 104.4
Demo: Equity Market Investments
$50K+ 120.3 ↓ 0.6 121.0 107.1
Less than $50K 119.4 ↓ 2.1 121.6 109.0
None 111.9 ↓ 0.5 113.3 104.5
Demo: Homeowners with $50k+ in Equity Market Investments
Total 121.4 ↓ 0.4 121.9 107.5
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (ICE)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 34
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Daily Media Consumers
The New York Times 112.6 ↑ 6.2 117.6 86.8
The Wall Street Journal 126.9 ↓ 8.0 134.9 104.2
Fox News Channel 144.9 ↓ 0.1 146.9 133.8
CNN 100.4 ↑ 0.4 102.2 84.8
MSNBC 94.2 ↓ 0.2 98.6 79.0
Twitter 120.4 ↑ 1.2 120.7 107.7
Facebook 117.7 ↓ 0.7 118.5 108.2
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (ICE)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 35
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Political Ideology
Conservative 142.7 ↓ 0.3 143.2 132.7
Liberal 94.2 ↓ 0.4 95.8 83.1
Moderate 109.1 ↓ 0.8 109.9 99.4
Demo: Trump Approval
Approve 147.3 ↓ 0.2 147.7 139.5
Disapprove 90.4 ↓ 0.3 92.2 80.9
Demo: 2016 Presidential Election
Republican Donald Trump 148.6 ↓ 0.7 149.2 138.9
Democrat Hillary Clinton 87.9 ↓ 0.9 89.3 76.3
Someone Else 100.8 ↓ 0.9 101.7 90.3
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
FED D ISTR ICTS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
ICE
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 36
Federal Reserve Districts
Atlanta (6)
Boston (1)
Chicago (7)
Cleveland (4)
Dallas (11)
Kansas City (10)
Minneapolis (9)
New York (2)
Philadelphia (3)
Richmond (5)
San Francisco (12)
St. Louis (8)
Value107.4 to 111.8111.8 to 113.2113.2 to 119.4119.4 to 123.2
Districts ValueWeekly
Change*52-Week
High 52-Week Low
Boston (1) 107.4 ↑ 2.1 107.4 95.5
New York (2) 112.1 ↓ 0.9 113.2 102.3
Philadelphia (3) 113.8 ↑ 1.4 115.7 101.5
Cleveland (4) 112.6 ↓ 3.1 115.7 103.3
Richmond (5) 119.4 ↑ 1.0 119.9 109.3
Atlanta (6) 123.2 ↓ 0.2 123.9 113.1
Chicago (7) 111.0 ↓ 1.4 113.9 102.0
St. Louis (8) 119.5 ↑ 1.9 119.5 106.4
Minneapolis (9) 112.0 ↓ 2.0 116.0 99.8
Kansas City (10) 115.3 ↑ 0.5 115.3 105.5
Dallas (11) 121.5 ↓ 0.6 122.3 111.9
San Francisco (12) 110.9 ↓ 3.2 114.0 101.7
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
INDEX OF CURRENT CONDITIONS (ICC)
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
INDEX OF CURRENT CONDIT IONS ( ICC) OVER T IME(Weekly)
W E E K L Y I N D E X 5 2 - W E E K H I G H 5 2 - W E E K L O W
114.0 114.3 108.0(02/10/2020) (08/26/2019)(As of 02/23/2020)
38
110.1
109.7
110.4
109.8
110.3
111.1
111.4
111.1 111.1111.2
111.6
110.8
110.2
110.1 109.8
110.2
110.4
111.2 111
111.6
111.2111.4
111.6 111.9
109.7
108.8
109
108
108.7
109.1
108.6
109.2
108.8
108.2
108.9
108.7 108.8
109.1
110.3
110.6
111.6111.2
110.8
111.4
113.7
114
112.2
113.1
113.3113.2
114.2
114.3
114
108
111
114
117
03/0
1/19
04/0
1/19
05/0
1/19
06/0
1/19
07/0
1/19
08/0
1/19
09/0
1/19
10/0
1/19
11/01
/19
12/0
1/19
01/0
1/20
02/0
1/20
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CURRENT CONDITIONS (ICC)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 39
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Age
18-24 113.2 ↑ 0.1 114.6 107.4
25-34 113.9 ↓ 0.1 115.2 107.9
35-44 114.7 ↓ 0.1 114.8 107.0
45-54 111.8 0.0 113.1 105.1
55-64 114.1 ↓ 0.8 114.9 106.9
65+ 115.7 ↓ 0.8 116.6 109.4
Demo: Gender
Male 119.6 ↑ 0.1 119.6 112.5
Female 108.8 ↓ 0.7 109.6 103.8
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CURRENT CONDITIONS (ICC)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 40
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Income
Less Than $50K 105.3 ↓ 0.4 105.9 100.9
$50K-$100K 122.7 ↑ 0.2 122.7 115.4
$100K+ 133.3 ↓ 0.7 134.0 124.1
$100K-$150K 131.8 ↓ 0.7 132.5 123.2
$150-$200K 135.1 ↓ 1.4 136.5 123.8
$200-$250K 134.2 ↓ 0.9 139.4 121.5
$250K+ 140.0 ↑ 2.1 140.8 124.6
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CURRENT CONDITIONS (ICC)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 41
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Education
Less Than College 111.8 ↓ 0.3 112.3 106.6
Bachelor's Degree 118.9 ↓ 0.3 119.8 111.6
Post-Grad 118.6 ↓ 0.3 119.0 109.7
Demo: Race/Ethnicity
African American 108.4 ↓ 1.9 110.3 102.8
Hispanic 113.4 ↓ 0.3 114.1 106.9
Other 109.8 ↑ 0.4 111.1 105.1
White 115.3 ↓ 0.1 115.4 108.9
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CURRENT CONDITIONS (ICC)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 42
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Employment Industry (Services Providing)
Educational Services 117.6 ↓ 1.4 119.1 108.3
Financial Activities 127.6 ↓ 3.7 131.3 115.2
Health Care 119.8 ↑ 1.6 120.6 110.3
Information 123.9 ↓ 3.6 127.5 114.4
Leisure and Hospitality 113.5 ↑ 4.1 117.9 102.4
Professional and Business Services 121.8 ↓ 3.3 125.1 112.7
Real Estate and Property 130.6 ↑ 5.4 133.8 115.7
Retail Trade 117.2 ↓ 1.3 118.5 109.5
Transportation 121.5 ↓ 2.6 124.1 110.3
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CURRENT CONDITIONS (ICC)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 43
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Employment Industry (Goods Producing)
Agriculture 119.8 ↑ 6.0 127.9 104.8
Construction 127.7 ↑ 3.3 127.7 119.2
Manufacturing 128.5 ↑ 0.6 128.5 118.1
Demo: Employment Industry (Other)
Defense 125.6 ↓ 2.3 143.0 102.9
Other 116.9 ↑ 0.7 116.9 108.6
Public Administration 120.5 ↓ 1.0 130.8 96.5
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CURRENT CONDITIONS (ICC)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 44
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: C-Suite, Owner, or Founder
Total 125.1 ↑ 0.9 125.1 114.1
Businesses with 1-5 Employees 118.7 ↑ 2.5 118.7 108.5
Businesses with 6-20 Employees 125.8 ↓ 2.0 134.0 113.8
Businesses with 21-100 Employees 136.5 ↓ 6.6 145.2 113.4
Businesses with More than 101 Employees 152.3 ↓ 3.7 159.5 123.5
Demo: Works in Sales or Business Development
Works in Sales or Business Development 122.4 ↓ 0.8 123.9 113.8
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CURRENT CONDITIONS (ICC)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 45
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Works in Production, Operations, or Logistics
Total 122.6 ↑ 1.1 122.6 113.7
Businesses with 1-5 Employees 115.8 ↑ 1.3 121.7 99.2
Businesses with 6-20 Employees 122.5 ↑ 7.8 123.8 107.9
Businesses with 21-100 Employees 122.5 ↓ 1.2 128.2 111.9
Businesses with 101-500 Employees 124.9 ↑ 2.2 127.8 113.7
Businesses with 501-10,000 Employees 125.3 ↑ 0.1 125.4 113.1
Businesses with More than 10,000 Employees 121.8 ↑ 0.1 125.7 112.4
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CURRENT CONDITIONS (ICC)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 46
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Housing Assets
Homeowners 120.0 ↓ 0.4 120.4 112.9
Renters 107.3 ↓ 0.4 107.7 102.8
Other 99.9 ↑ 0.7 101.9 95.1
Demo: Equity Market Investments
$50K+ 129.5 ↑ 0.1 129.5 120.2
Less than $50K 118.3 ↓ 0.8 119.1 111.2
None 105.5 ↓ 0.3 106.4 101.3
Demo: Homeowners with $50k+ in Equity Market Investments
Total 131.2 ↑ 0.2 131.2 121.3
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CURRENT CONDITIONS (ICC)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 47
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Daily Media Consumers
The New York Times 119.6 ↑ 1.8 124.5 102.2
The Wall Street Journal 127.5 ↓ 9.0 140.3 114.5
Fox News Channel 140.8 ↓ 0.6 142.6 130.0
CNN 106.4 ↓ 1.6 110.2 98.4
MSNBC 103.0 ↓ 1.3 109.1 92.3
Twitter 118.8 ↑ 0.1 120.0 111.1
Facebook 115.1 ↓ 0.2 115.3 108.5
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
INDEX OF CURRENT CONDITIONS (ICC)
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 48
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Political Ideology
Conservative 136.2 ↓ 0.1 136.2 127.7
Liberal 100.1 ↓ 0.3 101.3 94.3
Moderate 108.9 ↓ 0.4 109.7 103.1
Demo: Trump Approval
Approve 137.5 ↑ 0.6 137.5 129.6
Disapprove 96.7 ↓ 0.2 98.2 91.8
Demo: 2016 Presidential Election
Republican Donald Trump 141.5 0.0 141.5 132.2
Democrat Hillary Clinton 96.9 ↓ 0.9 98.6 90.9
Someone Else 106.2 ↑ 1.8 106.2 98.6
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
FED D ISTR ICTS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
ICC
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 49
Federal Reserve Districts
Atlanta (6)
Boston (1)
Chicago (7)
Cleveland (4)
Dallas (11)
Kansas City (10)
Minneapolis (9)
New York (2)
Philadelphia (3)
Richmond (5)
San Francisco (12)
St. Louis (8)
Value110.4 to 111.8111.8 to 112.8112.8 to 115.1115.1 to 119.4
Districts ValueWeekly
Change*52-Week
High 52-Week Low
Boston (1) 110.4 ↑ 3.5 110.4 100.9
New York (2) 112.8 ↓ 1.4 114.2 106.0
Philadelphia (3) 111.3 ↓ 0.8 114.4 104.9
Cleveland (4) 113.2 ↓ 1.7 115.0 106.2
Richmond (5) 117.5 ↑ 0.4 117.5 110.1
Atlanta (6) 119.4 ↓ 0.2 119.6 112.2
Chicago (7) 112.2 ↓ 0.5 113.1 106.4
St. Louis (8) 115.0 ↑ 1.0 116.5 105.9
Minneapolis (9) 112.6 ↓ 1.4 114.9 104.8
Kansas City (10) 112.6 ↑ 0.7 112.7 104.7
Dallas (11) 115.2 ↑ 0.1 117.8 110.3
San Francisco (12) 111.1 ↓ 1.2 112.3 104.9
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
PERSONAL FINANCES: CURRENT CONDITIONS
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
PERSONAL F INANCES: CURRENT CONDIT IONS OVER T IME(Weekly)
W E E K L Y I N D E X 5 2 - W E E K H I G H 5 2 - W E E K L O W
105.5 105.9 99.7(02/10/2020) (10/28/2019)(As of 02/23/2020)
51
103.1
101.1
102.3
101.6102
102.7
103.7
102.7
103103
103.3
102.7
102.6
101.9 101.8
102.5
102.6
103.3
102.6
103.4
103103.2
103.7104.2
101.6
100.9
101.4
100
101.2
101.3
100.5
101.3100.8
100 100.6
99.8 99.7
99.8
101.3 100.6
102.1
101.2
101
101.8
104.9
105.4
103.7
104.8 104.6
104.5
105.7 105.9
105.5
97.5
100.0
102.5
105.0
107.5
03/0
1/19
04/0
1/19
05/0
1/19
06/0
1/19
07/0
1/19
08/0
1/19
09/0
1/19
10/0
1/19
11/01
/19
12/0
1/19
01/0
1/20
02/0
1/20
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
PERSONAL FINANCES: CURRENT CONDITIONS
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 52
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Age
18-24 109.1 ↑ 0.3 111.7 102.5
25-34 108.3 ↑ 0.9 109.5 101.6
35-44 107.3 ↓ 0.3 107.7 98.6
45-54 101.8 ↓ 1.2 104.3 95.7
55-64 103.2 ↓ 0.9 104.1 95.4
65+ 104.7 ↓ 0.5 105.8 96.6
Demo: Income
Less Than $50K 94.3 ↓ 0.4 95.0 89.9
$50K-$100K 116.6 ↑ 0.3 116.6 109.2
$100K+ 130.9 ↓ 0.9 131.9 121.6
$100K-$150K 128.2 ↓ 1.3 129.6 119.2
$150-$200K 134.3 ↓ 0.4 134.7 122.3
$200-$250K 136.7 ↑ 1.8 139.8 120.1
$250K+ 138.6 ↓ 0.4 139.6 125.2
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
PERSONAL FINANCES: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
PERSONAL F INANCES: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS OVER T IME(Weekly)
W E E K L Y I N D E X 5 2 - W E E K H I G H 5 2 - W E E K L O W
129.8 130.8 125.6(12/30/2019) (09/02/2019)(As of 02/23/2020)
54
127.2
127.8
128 127.7
128.9
129.3
129.2
128.3
129.1
130.2130.5
128.8
128.7
127.9
128.6
127.9
126.9
128.4
128.2
129.9
128.8 128.8
128.5128.6
127.8
126.8
126.1
125.8 125.6
125.8
125.6
126.6
126.2
126.7
126.3
127.8127.4
128.4128.7
129
127.9
128.8
129.5129.5
129.4
130.8
129.6130.2
130.7130.5
130.4
129.9129.8
125.0
127.5
130.0
132.5
03/0
1/19
04/0
1/19
05/0
1/19
06/0
1/19
07/0
1/19
08/0
1/19
09/0
1/19
10/0
1/19
11/01
/19
12/0
1/19
01/0
1/20
02/0
1/20
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
PERSONAL FINANCES: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 55
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Age
18-24 141.5 ↑ 1.0 144.6 137.9
25-34 145.6 0.0 149.3 143.3
35-44 140.1 ↑ 1.4 141.0 134.1
45-54 129.8 ↓ 1.1 131.6 124.0
55-64 121.0 ↑ 0.3 121.9 113.2
65+ 108.5 ↓ 1.8 110.5 102.3
Demo: Income
Less Than $50K 126.4 ↑ 0.2 127.9 122.5
$50K-$100K 133.6 ↑ 0.1 134.7 127.8
$100K+ 136.8 ↓ 1.7 138.5 129.9
$100K-$150K 136.2 ↓ 2.0 138.2 130.0
$150-$200K 138.2 ↓ 0.1 142.0 128.9
$200-$250K 135.1 ↓ 2.2 142.0 128.7
$250K+ 141.1 ↓ 2.1 143.1 126.7
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
BUSINESS CONDIT IONS: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS OVER T IME(Weekly)
W E E K L Y I N D E X 5 2 - W E E K H I G H 5 2 - W E E K L O W
114.9 116.2 101.9(02/03/2020) (08/19/2019)(As of 02/23/2020)
57
106.8
107.1
108.4
107
108
109
107.8
108.7109.2
110.2
112.5
109.6
107.4
107.5
107.1 107
109.1
109.9109.4
110.5110.7
110.9 111.3
109.8
106.8
103.1
101.9102.4
103.7
104.8 104.1
105.2105.2
104.8
105.4
106.5107.5
108.9 109.3
110.2110.9 111.3
112113.1
114114.5
111.3
113.8
114.7
113.5
116.2116.1
114.9
100
105
110
115
03/0
1/19
04/0
1/19
05/0
1/19
06/0
1/19
07/0
1/19
08/0
1/19
09/0
1/19
10/0
1/19
11/01
/19
12/0
1/19
01/0
1/20
02/0
1/20
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 12 MONTH EXPECTATIONS
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 58
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Age
18-24 114.4 ↑ 1.9 114.6 101.6
25-34 116.2 ↓ 1.5 117.7 103.5
35-44 115.6 ↓ 0.5 116.9 101.7
45-54 114.6 ↓ 0.8 115.4 101.8
55-64 113.8 ↓ 2.2 116.1 100.6
65+ 114.7 ↓ 2.7 117.4 99.9
Demo: Income
Less Than $50K 109.7 ↓ 1.3 111.0 99.7
$50K-$100K 120.6 ↓ 0.8 121.5 105.2
$100K+ 125.4 ↓ 1.1 127.2 104.3
$100K-$150K 124.9 ↓ 1.3 126.6 104.4
$150-$200K 127.7 ↓ 1.0 129.7 101.2
$200-$250K 118.8 ↓ 3.5 126.6 94.7
$250K+ 129.8 ↑ 2.2 131.0 102.3
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 5 YEAR EXPECTATIONS
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
BUSINESS CONDIT IONS: 5 YEAR EXPECTATIONS OVER T IME(Weekly)
W E E K L Y I N D E X 5 2 - W E E K H I G H 5 2 - W E E K L O W
101.2 102.4 90.6(02/03/2020) (08/19/2019)(As of 02/23/2020)
60
94.2
94.395.1
93.4
93.894.4
93.7 94.194.5
95.8
96.9
95.6
94.8
94.4
94.5
94.3
95.2
96
95.3
97.9
96.7
96.4 96.396.3
94.1
91
90.690.8
91.9
92.7
91.792.4
92.9
93.1
92.6
93.893.9
95.695.6
95.9
97.2
97.7
97.4
97.9
99.2
100.6
98.6
99.6
100.8
99.8
102.4102.4
101.2
90
95
100
105
03/0
1/19
04/0
1/19
05/0
1/19
06/0
1/19
07/0
1/19
08/0
1/19
09/0
1/19
10/0
1/19
11/01
/19
12/0
1/19
01/0
1/20
02/0
1/20
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 5 YEAR EXPECTATIONS
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 61
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Age
18-24 97.4 ↓ 0.8 99.7 87.2
25-34 104.1 ↓ 1.2 105.3 89.7
35-44 103.0 ↓ 1.0 104.5 91.5
45-54 102.3 ↑ 0.5 103.4 90.5
55-64 100.2 ↓ 1.7 101.9 89.4
65+ 99.2 ↓ 2.7 101.9 89.9
Demo: Income
Less Than $50K 94.8 ↓ 1.6 96.9 86.5
$50K-$100K 108.7 ↑ 0.1 108.7 94.7
$100K+ 112.4 ↓ 2.1 114.5 96.2
$100K-$150K 112.5 ↓ 1.7 114.3 96.4
$150-$200K 114.4 ↓ 2.0 117.6 92.1
$200-$250K 101.9 ↓ 9.0 114.1 84.6
$250K+ 117.5 ↑ 2.6 117.5 95.5
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
CURRENT BUYING CONDITIONS
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
CURRENT BUYING CONDIT IONS OVER T IME(Weekly)
W E E K L Y I N D E X 5 2 - W E E K H I G H 5 2 - W E E K L O W
122.5 122.8 116.0(02/10/2020) (08/26/2019)(As of 02/23/2020)
63
117.1
118.4
118.5
117.9
118.6
119.4
119.2
119.5
119.3
119.5120
118.8
117.8
118.3
117.8 118
118.3
119.2119.3
119.9
119.4
119.5
119.5119.5
117.8
116.8
116.6
116 116.1
116.9
116.7
117.1116.7
116.4
117.1
117.5 117.9
118.4
119.3
120.7
121121.2
120.6
121
122.5 122.5
120.8
121.4
122121.9
122.7 122.8
122.5
114
117
120
123
03/0
1/19
04/0
1/19
05/0
1/19
06/0
1/19
07/0
1/19
08/0
1/19
09/0
1/19
10/0
1/19
11/01
/19
12/0
1/19
01/0
1/20
02/0
1/20
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
KEY DEMOGRAPHICS(02/17/2020 - 02/23/2020)
CURRENT BUYING CONDITIONS
*Shaded boxes indicate absolute weekly changes that are greater than the current week’s margin of error at the 95% confidence level. 64
Value Weekly Change* 52-Week High 52-Week Low
Demo: Age
18-24 117.3 ↓ 0.2 118.9 112.3
25-34 119.5 ↓ 1.1 121.0 113.2
35-44 122.0 ↑ 0.1 122.4 113.5
45-54 121.7 ↑ 1.2 122.2 114.0
55-64 125.1 ↓ 0.6 125.8 116.4
65+ 126.8 ↓ 1.0 127.9 120.6
Demo: Income
Less Than $50K 116.3 ↓ 0.4 116.8 110.7
$50K-$100K 128.8 ↑ 0.1 128.9 120.9
$100K+ 135.6 ↓ 0.4 136.2 125.4
$100K-$150K 135.3 0.0 135.9 125.3
$150-$200K 135.9 ↓ 2.4 141.1 123.9
$200-$250K 131.7 ↓ 3.6 139.7 120.1
$250K+ 141.3 ↑ 4.5 142.2 121.7
E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
Sampling Method
Morning Consult Economic Intelligence interviews about 7,500 adults per day in the US. The interviews are conducted online through multiple nationally recognized vendors. Morning Consult uses a stratified sampling process based on age and gender to reach a broad, nationally representative audience.
Survey Questions
Survey respondents answer the same five questions:
We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?
Now looking ahead--do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?
Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole--do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?
Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely--that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next 5 years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?
Thinking about the big things people buy for their homes--such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?
Data Processing
The data are then weighted to approximate a target sample of adults based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region according to US Census data. Weekly results aggregate daily surveys conducted from Monday through Sunday. Monthly results aggregate daily surveys conducted during the calendar month.
Relative Score and Index Calculations
The relative scores for each of the five questions reflect the percent of favorable replies minus the percent of unfavorable replies plus 100. The Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) is a simple average of all five relative scores. The Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE) is a simple average of the relative scores of questions 2, 3 and 4. Finally, the Index of Current Conditions (ICC) is a simple average of the relative scores of questions 1 and 5.
Intraweek Volatility and 30-Day Trend
Intraweek Volatility compares the day-to-day volatility within a given week to average intraweek volatility. “Stable” weeks are those with average or below average volatility. “Elevated” weeks are those with above average volatility. The 30-Day Trend captures the slope of the line of best fit for the past 30 days of smoothed daily data. All positive slopes are considered increasing trends, and all negative slopes are decreasing trends.
METHODOLOGY
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E C O N O M I C I N T E L L I G E N C E : U . S . C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
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