Dr. James JF Forest · counterterrorism strategy will be effec@ve across many instances 4. ......

DHP P244: Terrorism & Counterterrorism

Dr. James JF Forest

Week 9: Counterterrorism Frameworks & Strategies

4Premises1.  Terrorismwillbeapartoftheforeseeablefuture,anditis

likelythatterroristgroupswilldiscoverorcreatenewcapabili+es,astheyhavethroughouthistory

2.  Terrorismisacontextualphenomenon,withawiderangeofideologies,grievances,capabili@es,etc.

3.  Counteringterrorismrequiresfocusoncontexts(enablers,mo@vators,organiza@onalaFributes);Nosinglecounterterrorismstrategywillbeeffec@veacrossmanyinstances

4.  Thenatureofterrorismhaschangedinrecentdecades,withtheriseofdecentralized,“doityourself”modelsofterroraFacks

•  Domes@ccounterterrorismrequiresinteragencycoopera@on(federal,stateandlocal),especiallyregardingintelligenceandcriminalinves@ga@ons

•  Alsorequiresinvolvementofthegeneralpublic–  Communityvigilanceandresilience–  Indicatorsofsuspiciousbehavior;“Seesomething,say

something”;lawenforcement–communityrela@ons

CounteringTerrorism

•  Interna@onalcounterterrorismrequiresintegra@onofalldimensionsofana@on’spower

DifferentKindsofPower

Domestic CT International CT Monopoly of legal use of force within sovereign territory, but:

- Government accountability - Legal/court systems - Civil liberties, free press

No monopoly; must compel, incentivize other sovereign countries to act in certain ways

- Legal traditions vary widely - Power, leverage, sharing - Intelligence in hostile areas

Constraints on the use of power

•  HardPower“Warheadsonforeheads”;Does“toughness”or“coercivepolicy”deterterrorism?

•  So3Power(diplomacy,economicleverage,informa@on,andintelligence);-cfJosephNye,(formerDean,HKS)

DifferentKindsofPower

•  GrievancesandSourcesofDiscontent–  Oppressive,corrupt,incompetentregimes;noruleoflaw–  Demographicchanges(popula@ongrowth,urbaniza@on,etc.)–  Deepethnicfissures(Sudan,Yemen,Kurdishregions,Chechnya,etc.)–  Economictrends(globaliza@on,resourcedistribu@oninequi@es,etc.)

•  Facilitators–  Porousbordersandzoneswithlimitedgovernmentinfluence–  Vibrantglobaltraffickingnetworks–human,drugs,weapons

•  Transi@oningStates–  Governmentsandpoli@calsystemsintransi@onareoaendistracted

anddisorganized(impactof“ArabSpring”?)–  Transi@ontodemocracycanbefragile,difficult,violent@mes

How can various forms of national power help us deal with . . .

ElementsofNa@onalPowerDiplomacy Needlong-terminterna+onalCTcoopera+on

Intelligence Needtolearntheenemy’sstrongandweakpoints

Military Massivemilitaryforma+onsnotuseful;Needpreciseopera+ons(SOF),understandculture,behavior

Economic HelpcountriesaddresseconomicgrievancesImposesanc+onsagainststatesponsors

Financial Iden+fyingandtarge+ngnewfundingstreams

Informa+on Countertheterroristgroupnarra+vesMaintaincredibility,moral/ethicalhighground

Legal Arrest,prosecute,imprisonterrorists;MoralandethicalconstraintsacrossallDIMEFILdimensions

Need strategic framework, national plan to guide tactics, integrate all elements

Diplomacy

•  Whatdoweknowaboutstate-sponsoredorstate-facilitatedterrorism?Andwhatisbeingdoneaboutit?

•  Who’sresponsiblefordiploma@ceffortsinCT?

•  Howcanourac@onsinthediploma@carenahelp(orhurt)ourcounterterrorismefforts?

Intelligence•  Anyeffec@vedeterrenceorpreven@onofterrorismrequiresquality

intelligence

•  6basicintelligencesources,or“collec@ondisciplines”:

–  SignalsIntelligence(SIGINT)–  ImageryIntelligence(IMINT)–  MeasurementandSignatureIntelligence(MASINT)–  Human-SourceIntelligence(HUMINT)–  Open-SourceIntelligence(OSINT)–  Geospa@alIntelligence(GEOINT)

Source:U.S.DirectorateofNa@onalIntelligence

Intelligence•  InherentUncertainty•  DefiningIntelligence

–  Derivemeaning&understandingfromallsourcesofinforma@on

•  Products,consumers–  President’sDailyBrief

•  Es@mates(predic9ngthefuture?)–  NICGlobalTrends2030

•  ThreatAssessment•  NCTC,DNI,NIC,FusionCenters•  Counterintelligence,covertac@on

•  Everyonespiesoneveryone

Source: ISE.Gov (Information Sharing)

Intelligence

•  WhatdoesDanielBymandescribeinhis“IntelligenceWaronTerrorism”ar@cle?

•  WhatdoesJenniferSimspointtoasthechallengesofcounterterrorismintelligence?

•  Whataresomekeyintelligence-relatedchallengesinEurope,inrela@ontorecentincidentsinParis,Brussels,etc.?

•  WhataresomecommonintelligencemistakesinCT?

Military

•  Whatshouldmilitaryforcesdoaspartofaneffec@vecounterterrorismstrategy?

•  Whatshouldmilitaryforcesabsolutelynotdowhenimplemen@ngacounterterrorismstrategy?

•  Whatcanyourcountryreasonablyexpectfrommilitaryforcesinothercountries?Howcanyourforceshelpthem,ifnecessary?

•  DowerelytoomuchonmilitaryforcesforCT?

Economic

•  Roleofshadoweconomy,blackmarkets

•  WhatdoesJobyWarricksayaboutthe“economicwar”againsttheIslamicState?

•  Inwhatwaysarepoverty,economiccondi@onsrelatedtoterrorism?

EconomicContexts

•  Ourworldisrarelythewaywewantitbe

•  Sense of crisis, intense grievances is particularly acute for young people searching for jobs

Aspirations & Desires

Opportunities

Source of frustration and anger

•  Government or society unable or unwilling to provide enough opportunities

•  Perceived illegitimacy

EconomicResponses

•  HowdoestheWorldTradeOrganiza@on,theU.S.DepartmentofCommerce,orothersuchorganiza@oncontributetoacounterterrorismstrategy?

•  Developmentassistance?Jobs?Whatelse?

•  Howcantheprivatesectorcontributetoaneffec@vecounterterrorismstrategy?

Finance

•  Whotakestheleadincomba@ngterrorismfinancingintheU.S.?Europe?

•  Whatdoweknowaboutterroristsearn,move.store,anddistributefinances?Whatdoweneedtoknowanddo?

•  Whataretheresponsibili@esoftheprivatesectorincomba@ngterrorismfinance?

•  Whataretheresponsibili@esofindividualconsumersincomba@ngterrorismfinance?

Goodreading:PaulJ.Smith,“TerrorismFinance:GlobalResponsestotheTerrorismMoneyTrail,”inEssen%alsofCounterterrorism,p.105-127.

Informa@on

•  Whoisinchargeoftheinforma@ondimensionofCT?

•  Whatkindsofthingsaresome@mesdoneintermsofpublicdiscoursethatcouldbecounterproduc@vetoCTobjec@ves?

•  Whatismeantbytheterm“BaFleofIdeasagainstISIS”?– Whoisfigh@ngthisbaFle?

Informa@on

•  WhatdoesStephenWaltsayabout“OurOwnImagining”?

•  Howareterroristsportrayedbypoli@calleaders,mainstreammedia,others?

•  Whatarewedoingaboutcounteringterroristideologiesandnarra@ves?

•  WhatdoesEricRosandsuggestshouldbedonetopromoteaglobaleffortto“counterviolentextremism”?

LawEnforcement

•  Courts,legalframework•  Whatkindsoflegisla@oncouldhavethegreatestposi@ve(or

nega@ve)impactoncounteringterrorismeffec@vely?•  Note:Emergencylegisla@on,powers,havealmostneverled

directlytodeclineinterrorism(HewiF,1984)

•  Lawenforcement&communitypolicing

•  Intersec@onwithorganizedcriminalnetworks,drugtrafficking,moneylaundering,etc.

•  Counterterrorismeffortsmustbeviewedasconsistentlyappliedwithintheruleoflaw

Summary

•  Diplomacy

•  Intelligence

•  Military

•  Economic

•  Financial

•  Informa@on

•  Legal

Massive military formations not useful; Need precise operations (SOF), understand culture, behavior

Identifying and targeting new funding streams

Need to learn the enemy’s strong and weak points

Need long-term international CT cooperation

Help countries address economic grievances Impose sanctions against state sponsors

Counter the terrorist group narratives Maintain credibility, moral/ethical high ground

Arrest, prosecute, imprison terrorists; Moral and ethical constraints across all DIMEFIL dimensions

Need integrative strategic framework, national plan to guide tactics

Break

Wearedoomed...?

•  “Thebestlaiddiploma@c,economic,legal,andevenmilitaryplanswillonlycontainterrorism,notdefeatit.”

-Mar9nandWalcoD,1988

•  Terrorismcanneitherbestoppednorabsolutelyprevented,onlycontained.

-  IanO.Lesser,BruceHoffman,JohnArquilla,DavidRonfeldt,andMicheleZanini,CounteringtheNewTerrorism(SantaMonica,CA:Rand,1999),

•  “Wemustlearntocontainandregulatetheanarchythatfomentsboth

thedestruc@venessofterroristsandtheinjus@cesofglobalcapital.” -BenjaminBarber,2005

•  “TheUnitedStatesmustadoptastrategyofcontainmentandaddress

theunderlyingcausesofdiscontent.”-StevenSimon,2003

Next week’s class: Containment & Deterrence

CTLessons

What lessons do Andrew Liepman and Philip Mudd suggest the U.S. should learn from the last 15 years of fighting terrorism?

CTBaFlefields

Battlefield Counterterrorism Terrorist Groups

Kinetic aspects

Military, law enforcement

Bombings, violence against civilians

Endurance of society

Managing expectations

Use fear to compel behavior, policies

Narrative (Influence Warfare)

Must counter and discredit the narrative of terrorists

Convince population that the CT effort is repression, unjust

Legitimacy Must be perceived as legitimate, credible

Must be perceived as legitimate, credible

Challenge for either side: Be successful in all battlegrounds

Legi@macy

“The provision of governance and institutions that serve the people, not just the elites . . . “

As legitimacy declines, likelihood for political violence

increases -  Ted Robert Gurr, 1960 -  Max Manwaring, 1992

•  Legitimacy is a perception-based phenomenon

•  Perceptions of legitimacy, justice are central to success •  Perceived lack of legitimacy undermines all other efforts

Legi@macy

•  WhatdoesJenniferHolmesdescribeasthekeychallengestodevelopingandimplemen@ngcounterterrorismpolicyinaliberaldemocracy?

•  WhatdoCrenshawandLaFreesayabout“over-responding”toterrorism?

HowLegi@mate?•  Must pursue counterterrism objectives within ethical

and legal frameworks; avoid exacerbating grievances

•  Just War Theory: Morality of the use of force •  jus ad bellum – when is it justified to use armed force? •  jus in bello – What constraints should be placed on how

force is used

•  Must not over-react; terrorist strategy may be to provoke over-reaction

•  Must not under-react, as this creates space for the possible emergence of militants, vigilantes

Miller:ContextsareCri@cal

•  Terroristgroupshavedifferentgoals

•  GovernmentCTpoliciesthushavedifferenteffectsondifferentgroups–  Somepoliciesaremoreeffec@vethanothersagainstaspecificgroup

•  Responsescaninclude:–  Donothing:ignoreit–  Concilia@on:nego@ate,addressgrievances–  Legalreform:newlaws,ins@tu@ons,policepowers,–  Restric@on:mar@allaw,sanc@ons,targethardening–  Violence:killorinjureterroristsandsupporters

•  Combina@onsofresponsesworkbeFerthanasingletype

•  Groupideologyandenablingenvironmentsimpacthoweffec9veapar@cularkindofgovernmentresponsecanbe

Mul@pleLevelsofEffort

•  Evaluatepoten@alcapabili@esandinten@ons,trends,andprovideanopera@onalnetassessmentofthegroup(localHUMINTiscri@cal)

•  Iden@fyandinterdictfinancingstreams,assets

•  Developacredibleideologicalcounter-narra@ve:makefundraising,recruitmentmoredifficult

•  Mustbeethically&legallydefensibleinallac@ons

Mul@pleLevelsofEffort

•  Needtoconstrainaterroristgroup’sabilitytoinfluenceothers(affiliates,individuals)tocommitterroristactsonbehalfoftheirideology

•  Needtounderstandandcurtailradicaliza@onprocesses

•  Underminetheresonanceofthemo@va@ngideology

•  Discredittheideologicalentrepreneurs,influencers

Summary

•  Comba@ngterrorismisacomplex,mul@facetedchallenge

•  Legi@macyisessen@alforbothdomes@candinterna@onalcounterterrorism

•  U@lizeallDIMEFILassets:Wholeofgovernmentapproachneededto:

1.  Diminishthecapabili@esoftoday’sterroristgroups2.  Diminishtheenvironmentalenablersthatfacilitatethedaily

opera@onsandideologicalresonanceoftheterroristgroups

ExamplesofFinalQues@ons

•  Howandwhendoesacountryknowifterrorismhasbeendefeated?Whataretheappropriateassessmentmetrics?Whatdoessuccesslooklikeandisitpossible?

•  Whatarethelimitsofcounterterrorism,especiallyinaliberaldemocracy?

•  Whatac@onscouldagovernmenttakeinresponsetoterrorismthatmightactuallymakethingsworseinsteadofbeFer?

•  Doesaneffec@vecounterterrorismpolicynecessarilyrequireareduc@oninci@zens’civilliber@es?Whyorwhynot?

Ques@ons?