Does Europe need more roads? 1 Wednesday, 7 October 2009 Steer Davies Gleave 28-32 Upper Ground...

1Does Europe need more roads?

Does Europe need more roads?

Wednesday, 7 October 2009

Steer Davies Gleave28-32 Upper Ground

London, SE1 9PD+44 (0)20 7919 8500

www.steerdaviesgleave.com

Ex Post Evaluation of Cohesion Policy Programmes 2000-2006 co-financed by the European Fund for Regional Development (Objective 1 and 2). Work Package 5a: Transport

Presentation at the DG REGIO Open Days

2Does Europe need more roads?

Presentation agenda

Ι ERDF objectives for transport for the 2000-2006 period

Ι Physical outcomes from investment co-financed by the ERDF

Ι Evaluation of transport needs

Ι Emerging findings and recommendations from the Draft final report

Ι Conclusions

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ERDF objectives for transport for the 2000-2006 period

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ERDF objectives for transport in programming period

Ι Improving the effectiveness of transport systems by modernising and repairing infrastructure, fostering better management and encouraging measures to enhance interoperability;

Ι Seeking a balance between the different modes of transport by investing more in modes other than road transport, developing coherent intermodal and combined transport systems and creating transfer hubs;

Ι improving access to the regions by connecting the main networks to local small-scale transport systems;

Ι reducing the harmful effects of transport by complying with environmental protection rules. (Source: Guidelines for the 2000-2006 programme)

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Financial outcomes from investment co-financed by the ERDF

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Allocation and expenditure (1)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Expenditure

Last allocation

Initial allocation

€ BRoads Rail Urban transport

Ports Multimodal transport Airports

Not classified transport Others

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6

Expenditure

Last allocation

Initial allocation

€ BRoads Rail Urban transport

Ports Multimodal transport Airports

Others Not classified transport

Objective 2

Objective 1Ι €33.8 billion allocated Ι €29.1 billion spent

by end of 2007

Ι 96% in Objective 1 regions.

Ι 81.5% was allocated to 5 Member States.

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ERDF contribution (Based on case studies)

Ι Expenditure followed OP strategy, but not always key challenges ■ for example the little attention placed on intermodality, improving the

quality of rail or improving urban transport.

Ι Where challenges addressed there were positive results ■ relieving bottlenecks -> reduced of journey times; ■ increasing airport capacity -> increased passenger numbers.

Ι Exogenous macroeconomic factors limited some achievements

■ for example investments in public transport being cancelled out by increases in car ownership

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Expenditure split

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

AT BE CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT SE SI SK UK

Other

Rail

All roads

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Physical outcomes from investment co-financed by the ERDF

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0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Roads Motorways Rail Airports Ports Urban Transport MutimodalTransport

Projects over the programming period

Ι Over 13,000 transport projects (61% road based)Ι 96% in Objective 1 and 95% in the EU15.

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Transport investment statistics -1

Nearly 100,000km of roads & motorways

Ι 13,000km new buildΙ 62,000km reconstructedΙ The rest unclassified

Almost 4,000km of railway

Ι 600km new buildΙ 2,300km reconstructedΙ The rest unclassified

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Transport investment statistics -2

AirportsΙ 31 airports modernised &

substantial terminal surface area added. Many targets were not met.

PortsΙ 130 ports have been modernised (in

a selection of countries) and target achievement varied from 50% to 650%.

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Transport investment statistics -3

Ι Over 1500 multimodal centres were completed.

Ι Almost 7000 parking spaces.

Ι 2,476km of cycle paths were completed.

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Evaluation of transport needs

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Did Europe need more roads at the start of the programming period? Arguments for

Ι Quality of the road network poor in many EU10 Member States (especailly in Baltic States)

Ι Missing links, particularly connections to ports, needed to be completed (France, Germany)

Ι Journey times needed to be reduced (Greece, Czech Republic)

Ι Key connections needed to be built (Spain, Greece)

Ι Road safety needed to improved (Portugal, Poland)

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Did Europe need more roads at the start of the programming period? Arguments against

Ι Some Member States already had an extensive road network.

Ι Some investment driven by the fact that it was easier.

Ι Strategy and EU policy said that investment should be focused on other modes.

Ι Building more roads creates more congestion

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Emerging findings and recommendations

From Draft Final Report

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Emerging findings (1)

Ι ERDF contributed significantly to the development of transport in terms of the addition of additional transport infrastructure and reducing journey times.

■ A number of key projects completed (see major projects in Greece, Spain, Italy, etc.)

■ Increased connections to the TEN-T (Portugal, Poland, etc.)■ Increased capacity (Motorways in Spain and Greece; railways in

Italy, etc.)

Ι Focus on road was within the strategies. (11/12 case studies focused on different aspects of road improvements in their strategy)

Ι EU10 MS have seen a substantial improvement in the quality of roads across their network. (Journey times and road standards in Baltic States)

Ι Some States have seen a substantial improvement in road safety. (Portugal)

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Emerging findings (2)

Ι Little emphasis on modal shift (9/12 regions included it in their strategy, only Lisboa invested significantly.)

Ι The “spend” culture directed funds to the easiest projects which may not have been the most optimal.

Ι Direct impacts of transport investments can be measured (journey time reductions, accessibility increased capacity, etc.).

Ι Indirect impacts are harder to measure: difficult to draw link to regional development. They need effective measurement & monitoring which needs to be done over a much longer timeframe than the limited time in the programming period.

Ι Clear objectives need to be defined

Ι Generally little value for money appraisal in the development of projects. (Although good practice examples have been seen in the UK).

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Examples of good practice

Ι Athens Metro – Modal shift

Ι Eco Bus line in Funchal – Zero Emissions

Ι Removal of level crossings in Cadiz – urban road safety

Ι Egnatia Motorway – Journey times

Ι AVE Spain – High speed rail

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Emerging recommendations (1)

Ι EC to provide guidance on:

■ Setting clear objectives and areas that should be targeted

■ The type of expenditure (current vs capital)

■ How transport investment is managed nationally (national vs local roads)

Road

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Emerging recommendations (2)

Ι Projects need to be accompanied by a sound cost benefit analysis

Ι The defining of indicators, the setting of targets and the monitoring of outcomes needs to be improved:

■ Journey times at scheme or corridor level■ Changes in capacity■ Changes in safety■ Changes in modal split■ Freight impacts

Ι Increased knowledge exchange between regions to identify good/best practice

Ι Linking OP strategies more explicitly to EU, national and regional challenges and strategies.

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Conclusion: Does Europe need more roads going forward?

Ι It depends on: ■ What type of roads? (motorways/national/local)■ What type of road interventions? (new/upgraded/maintenance)■ Where? (Which part of the EU?)■ Why roads have been chosen? (Is there a need or is it easier

compared to rail?)

Ι Road investment still necessary but targeted at micro interventions aimed at filling missing links or removing bottlenecks.

Ι ERDF investment needs to switch away from roads and more towards ensuring sustainable transport which is not limited only to rail.

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Thank you