District Surface Water Model (DSWM) Project Training Webinar SWFWMD December 19, 2013

District Surface Water Model (DSWM)

Project Training Webinar SWFWMD

December 19, 2013

2

Agenda Agenda

Presentation Background DSWM development and calibration

Select a watershed to go through Results for all watersheds

HSPF Background/Theory Data Model development steps Interfaces Run procedures

Recharge Rate Extraction Hands-on Session

12/19/2013

3

Objectives To develop and calibrate an HSPF*-based

numerical model(s) that simulates surface water flow and groundwater recharge in the Northern District Model (NDM) domain area and the entire District. DSWM – District-wide Surface Water Model.

To update the existing NDM (Version 3) with recharge and ET estimated by the surface water model.

* HSPF – Hydrologic Simulation Program, Fortran12/19/2013

DSWM Development and Calibration

5

Model Development

12/19/2013

Segmentation and Land Use

Meteorological Data

Other Input Data (springs, irrigation, etc.)

Characterize Land and Stream Segments

Observed Streamflow Data/Calibration

Locations

Calibration

6

Land Segmentation

12/19/2013

Basis for land segments is District’s “DrainageBasin” data derived from FDEP Basin-24 coverage

Segment size similar to previous models: INTB

and IBC

Adjustments to boundaries to accommodate waterbody transition (lake vs river), tributary connections, and stream gage locations

Non-contributing segments were “disconnected” and assigned parameters that resulted in all rainfall inputs that don’t evaporate going to recharge

7

Land Use

12/19/2013

Land Use Based on 2004 Florida Land Use from SWFWMD,

SRWMD, SJRWMD, and SFWMD Used INTB categories and procedures

Categories: Forest, Grass/Pasture, Agriculture/Irrigated, Mining/Other, Urban, Wetland, Urban Impervious, Water

Aggregated to model categories using FLUCCS codes Impervious category

Effective Impervious Area = directly connected impervious areas

EIA computed by percentages of FLUCCS categories All impervious area combined into a single “Urban

Impervious” category

8

Meteorological Data – Rainfall

12/19/2013

Rainfall data is NEXRAD (i.e., radar-derived) data at a 2x2 km grid resolution and 15 minute interval

NEXRAD data provided by District Rainfall inputs for PERLNDs and IMPLNDs in each

model segment are area-weighted averages of the rainfall values of the pixels overlying the segment

Data are stored in WDM file A pilot study on one watershed determined that the

NEXRAD data were sufficiently similar to the gage-derived rainfall database used in the INTB model to support a calibrated model

Differences between NEXRAD and gage rainfall were observed

9

Meteorological Data – Potential Evapotranspiration (PET)

12/19/2013

PET data are computed (Priestly-Taylor method) at the same 2x2 km grid as used by NEXRAD

PET data are 1-day totals; data are available for June1995 - December 2010

PET data developed by USGS and obtained from USGS PET inputs for PERLNDs and IMPLNDs in each model segment

are area-weighted averages of the PET values of the pixels overlying the segment

Daily PET data were disaggregated to 1 hour time step using a seasonally varying distribution function based on the pattern of daylight at the latitude of the watershed; data stored in WDM file

The pilot study determined that the USGS GOES PET data were very similar to the gage-derived PET database used in the INTB model; differences had minimal impact on model results

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Irrigation

12/19/2013

Irrigation is applied to the Agriculture/Irrigated PERLND in each model segment

Amounts based on District’s monthly water use permit data for GW and surface water pumping

Amounts separated into Spray and Drip categories Monthly totals disaggregated to daily using a “PET

deficit” computed from the rainfall and PET data Data are stored in WDM files Daily Spray amount is applied as “rainfall” over

three hours starting at 7 AM Daily Drip amount is applied as “surface inflow” (not

subject to interception) over six hours starting at 7 AM

11

Surface Water Pumping

12/19/2013

Surface water pumping (diversions) computed from District’s monthly water use permit database

Monthly surface water pumping totals for all permits in a subwatershed are summed, disaggregated to a constant daily rate, and stored in a WDM file

Water is removed from the model reach in the subwatershed where pumping occurs

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Springs

12/19/2013

Flow from springs are added to the model reach in the subwatershed where the springs are located

Spring discharge timeseries obtained from USGS and WM Districts and from pre-existing models

Springs: Crystal, Rainbow, Silver, Homosassa,

Chassahowitzka, Weeki Wachee, Wekiva River watershed springs, Gourdneck, Harris,

13

Observed Streamflow Data

12/19/2013

Observed daily streamflow is used to compare with simulated flow during calibration

Calibration/comparison performed at 73 gage locations

Data obtained from District database, USGS, and SJRWMD

Data stored in WDM files

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Data Used to Characterize Land Areas and Stream/Lake Reaches

12/19/2013

DEM – land area slope, stream slope, stream channel

Soils – infiltration

Land use – segment watershed by landuse/cover

NHD – stream and lake locations, sizes, connectivity

Existing models – conveyance system connectivity, lake and stream configuration, stream cross sections, HSPF FTABLEs

USGS - stream cross sections and rating curves

Lake surveys – lake FTABLEs Depth to Groundwater – infiltration, target ET

15

Calibration

12/19/2013

Calibration followed the standard hierarchical methodology

Focusing first on the overall water balance using the LZSN (lower zone nominal storage), INFILT (infiltration index), DEEPFR (fraction of GW inflow that is lost to recharge), and major ET parameters (e.g., LZETP)

Maintain reasonable differences in land-use sensitive parameters within a watershed

Compare total actual ET with land-use specific target ET and adjust balance between ET and recharge as necessary

Adjust low flow/high flow distribution with INFILT, AGWRC (GW recession), and BASET (baseflow ET)

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Calibration (continued)

12/19/2013

Adjust storm shape using INFILT, UZSN (upper zone nominal storage), INTFW (interflow), and IRC (interflow recession)

Comparisons between observed and simulated used in calibration Hydrographs Cumulative flow graphs Flow duration graphs Annual runoff totals Statistics (errors at various flow regimes,

correlation coefficient, NS model fit efficiency)

17

Overview of DSWM Watersheds

12/19/2013

Area separated into 12 major watersheds to make model input and output manageable and reduce simulation times

HAT – Hillsborough River, Alafia River, and other Tampa area watersheds

CRY – Crystal River, Pithlachascotee River, Anclote River, Chassahowitzka River, Homosassa River, Weeki Wachi

WIT – Withlacoochee River

WAC – Waccasassa River

OKL – Oklawaha River, including Orange Lake area

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Watersheds (continued)

12/19/2013

KIS – Kissimmee River

MAN - Manatee/Little Manatee

MSR - Myakka and Sarasota Bay area

PCH – Peace River and Charlotte Harbor area

WOK - Western Okeechobee

CAL - Caloosahatchee River

EXT – Extended area - Etonia/Rice Creeks, Lake George area, Wekiva River

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Summary of DSWM Development

12/19/2013

Principal Inputs: NEXRAD 15-minute rainfall and daily computed PET dataset, 2004 Florida Land Use (seven categories – same method as INTB);

Segmentation: average size = 44 sq miles

Irrigation Input: based on groundwater and surface water pumping data; same method as INTB

Calibration: ~75 calibration locations

ET Comparisons: within error bounds of target ET (+/- 10%) for much of the area

Model Performance: overall "fair" calibration to daily streamflow, monthly average flows show best results

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Watersheds and HSPF Models

12/19/2013

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North Domain Model Expanded into St Johns River watershed

12/19/2013

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Final Model Segmentation

12/19/2013

Watersheds in Northern Region

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Hillsborough-Alafia-Tampa Watershed

12/19/2013

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Crystal-Pithlachascotee and Withlacoochee Watersheds

12/19/2013

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Oklawaha Watershed

12/19/2013

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Extended Area Watersheds – Rice Creek, Etonia Creek, Lake George Area creeks, Wekiva River, and local drainage to St. Johns River

12/19/2013

28

Northern Region Calibration Results - Observed Annual Flows (inches) and Simulated Error Terms

12/19/2013

Annual Flow 25% High Flow 50% High Flow 50% Low Flow 25% Low Flow

Site Name Site IDObs(in)

Rel Err(%)

Obs (in)

Rel Err(%)

Obs (in)

Obs(in)

Rel Err(%)

Obs (in)

Rel Err(%)

Obs (in)

Hillsborough River AreaBlackwater Ck nr Knights 02302500 10.9 0.4 9.1 -1.5 10. -1.1 0.6 27. 0.11 85.Hillsborough R nr Zephyrhills 02303000 14.5 1.6 10.3 -1.7 12. 0.9 2.1 5.6 0.78 -0.6Hillsborough R at Morris Br 02303330 10.5 4.1 7.8 -4.6 9.3 0.7 1.2 30. 0.42 28.Cypress Ck at Worthington Gardens 02303420 7.3 -1.0 6.6 -16. 7.2 -4.1 0.061 367. low -Cypress Ck nr Sulphur Springs 02303800 7.9 -1.3 6.9 -19. 7.8 -6.4 0.13 309. low -Sweetwater Ck nr Tampa 02306647 23.1 -3.4 19.2 -1.6 22. -2.0 1.2 -30. 0.23 -51.Rocky Creek nr Sulphur Springs 02307000 18.2 -0.1 14.3 6.7 17. 1.8 1.1 -31. 0.21 -55.Brooker Ck nr Tarpon Springs 02307359 8.9 0.5 8.0 -6.4 8.8 -1.3 0.084 192. low -Alafia River AreaBullfrog Creek nr Wimauma 02300700 23.7 0.5 18.8 -8.2 21.6 -2.2 2.2 27. 0.65 30.North Prong Alafia R at Keysville 02301000 16.5 -1.3 11.8 -6.1 14.5 -1.5 2.0 -0.1 0.59 -13.South Prong Alafia R nr Lithia 02301300 13.9 0.3 9.5 9.2 12.4 3.0 1.5 -22. 0.25 16.Alafia R at Lithia 02301500 13.6 6.3 9.4 3.5 12.0 5.9 1.6 8.8 0.42 8.0Crystal-Pithlachascotee River AreaAnclote R nr Elfers 02310000 12.8 1.7 11.6 -10. 12.5 0.9 0.39 28. 0.14 -68.Pithlachascotee R nr New Port Richey 02310300 2.02 4.3 1.81 0.6 1.9 4.6 0.036 -11. 0.0030 -98.Withlacoochee River Withlacoochee R nr Cumpressco 02310947 7.6 1.5 6.8 -2.6 7.5 1.1 0.063 45. low -Withlacoochee R at Trilby 02312000 7.8 6.1 6.5 -8.5 7.5 6.2 0.32 3.0 0.052 -53.Little Withlacoochee R nr Tarrytown 02312180 9.1 -6.6 8.6 -14. 9.1 -6.5 low - low -Little Withlacoochee R at Rerdell 02312200 8.6 4.4 7.6 -3.8 8.4 5.1 0.13 -39. low -Withlacoochee R at Croom 02312500 7.2 8.1 5.6 0.7 6.7 10.0 0.44 -21. 0.058 -35.Withlacoochee R nr Floral City 02312600 6.0 14. 4.7 7.4 5.7 15.2 0.34 -13. 0.026 -19.Withlacoochee R nr Holder 02313000 6.6 -0.1 4.2 7.9 5.7 5.7 0.94 -35. 0.25 -48.Waccasassa River

Waccasassa R nr Gulf Hammock (1999-2006) 02313700 5.7 5.2 3.9 9.1 5.4 2.3 0.33 52. low -Oklawaha RiverBig Ck nr Clermont 02236500 5.3 0.9 4.5 8.6 5.2 1.5 0.059 -57. low -Palatlakaha R at Structure M-1 02237293 3.8 1.5 3.6 -16 3.7 -0.5 0.036 203. low -Apopka-Beauclair Canal nr Astatula 02237700 4.7 -0.7 4.0 -1.0 4.4 -2.4 0.38 19. 0.14 42.Haynes Ck at Lisbon 02238000 4.2 1.4 3.5 -6.3 3.9 3.5 0.30 -26. 0.12 -36.Ocklawaha R at Moss Bluff 02238500 3.3 -0.3 2.9 -6.8 3.1 -0.6 0.23 4.0 0.086 35.Ocklawaha R nr Conner 02240000 12.3 1.5 5.5 0.0 8.4 1.6 3.89 1.2 1.67 -0.1Ocklawaha R at Eureka 02240500 12.1 -0.5 5.4 2.4 8.3 1.5 3.82 -4.7 1.64 -7.4Orange Ck at Orange Springs 02243000 2.4 1.2 2.0 -0.7 2.3 1.3 0.14 -0.7 0.03 -45.Ocklawaha R at Rodman Dam 02243960 9.2 -0.4 4.9 -2.6 7.1 -3.4 2.15 9.3 0.82 17.

Northern Region Calibration Results - Statistics of Daily and Monthly Flow Rates

12/19/201329

Site Name Site ID

Daily Flow Monthly Flow

Correl.Coeff.

Coeff. of Deter.

Mean Error (cfs)

Mean Abs.Err.

(cfs)

RMS Error (cfs)

Model Fit Effic.

Correl.Coeff.

Coeff. of Deter.

Mean Error (cfs)

Mean Abs.Err.

(cfs)

RMS Error (cfs)

Model Fit Effic.

Hillsborough River AreaBlackwater Ck nr Knights 02302500 0.611 0.373 0.37 60.4 220. 0.030 0.910 0.828 0.46 32.9 63.7 0.816Hillsborough R nr Zephyrhills 02303000 0.827 0.685 3.8 84.3 274. 0.663 0.954 0.909 4.0 53.6 106. 0.904Hillsborough R at Morris Br 02303330 0.898 0.807 12. 109. 234. 0.807 0.932 0.869 12.4 88.6 150. 0.867Cypress Ck at Worthington Gardens 02303420 0.739 0.546 -0.63 40.1 101. 0.540 0.939 0.882 -0.57 28.7 52.9 0.833Cypress Ck nr Sulphur Springs 02303800 0.912 0.831 -1.2 42.9 90.9 0.773 0.939 0.882 -1.2 38.2 71.3 0.824Sweetwater Ck nr Tampa 02306647 0.640 0.409 -0.83 18.0 45.6 0.210 0.894 0.799 -0.81 9.5 17.7 0.757Rocky Creek nr Sulphur Springs 02307000 0.522 0.272 -0.069 40.9 94.6 -0.295 0.896 0.803 -0.030 19.3 29.4 0.786Brooker Ck nr Tarpon Springs 02307359 0.782 0.612 0.092 11.3 31.9 0.548 0.914 0.835 0.13 8.2 14.6 0.830Alafia River AreaBullfrog Creek nr Wimauma 02300700 0.556 0.309 0.25 35.3 133. 0.265 0.904 0.817 0.18 17.4 28.6 0.803North Prong Alafia R at Keysville 02301000 0.783 0.614 -2.2 63.0 191. 0.601 0.954 0.909 -2.3 37.4 57.6 0.906South Prong Alafia R nr Lithia 02301300 0.784 0.614 0.38 48.8 131. 0.273 0.896 0.803 0.43 39.8 63.1 0.730Alafia R at Lithia 02301500 0.874 0.763 21 111. 280. 0.744 0.944 0.890 21. 84.0 133. 0.882Crystal-Pithlachascotee River AreaAnclote R nr Elfers 02310000 0.826 0.682 1.12 43.0 112. 0.647 0.865 0.747 1.06 37.9 71.6 0.714Pithlachascotee R nr New Port Richey 02310300 0.912 0.833 1.06 9.4 26.4 0.824 0.949 0.901 1.05 8.1 16.2 0.892Withlacoochee River Withlacoochee R nr Cumpressco 02310947 0.832 0.693 2.31 83.0 195. 0.686 0.881 0.777 2.4 72.9 139. 0.776Withlacoochee R at Trilby 02312000 0.735 0.540 19.8 218. 414. 0.538 0.789 0.623 21. 193. 332. 0.620Little Withlacoochee R nr Tarrytown 02312180 0.845 0.714 -3.7 27.9 69.8 0.706 0.892 0.795 -3.6 23.7 51.7 0.784Little Withlacoochee R at Rerdell 02312200 0.882 0.779 4.1 39.7 83.2 0.778 0.918 0.842 4.2 32.8 61.7 0.841Withlacoochee R at Croom 02312500 0.834 0.696 34.6 216. 389. 0.692 0.864 0.746 36. 192. 327. 0.739Withlacoochee R nr Floral City 02312600 0.844 0.712 59.9 226. 397. 0.696 0.865 0.748 61. 207. 351. 0.729Withlacoochee R nr Holder 02313000 0.907 0.822 -0.65 299. 463. 0.799 0.921 0.849 -0.4 277. 410. 0.833Waccasassa RiverWaccasassa R nr Gulf Hammock (99-06) 02313700 0.752 0.565 -4.498 151.6 281.54 0.516 0.843 0.71 -6.156 119.62 164.38 0.653Oklawaha RiverBig Ck nr Clermont 02236500 0.599 0.359 0.24 24.0 58.2 -0.399 0.722 0.522 0.23 19.7 36.0 0.373Palatlakaha R at Structure M-1 02237293 0.773 0.597 0.93 43.9 86.4 0.592 0.799 0.638 0.86 39.3 77.5 0.630Apopka-Beauclair Canal nr Astatula 02237700 0.817 0.668 -0.43 35.2 74.1 0.655 0.900 0.809 -0.35 27.9 49.3 0.806Haynes Ck at Lisbon 02238000 0.796 0.634 2.77 126. 221. 0.629 0.865 0.749 2.43 106. 165. 0.746Ocklawaha R at Moss Bluff 02238500 0.787 0.620 -0.68 128. 254. 0.615 0.862 0.744 -0.86 101. 182. 0.739Ocklawaha R nr Conner 02240000 0.897 0.805 13.8 141. 255. 0.790 0.934 0.872 14.0 119. 193. 0.862Ocklawaha R at Eureka 02240500 0.851 0.724 -4.73 182. 361. 0.647 0.913 0.834 -4.53 155. 257. 0.781Orange Ck at Orange Springs 02243000 0.892 0.795 0.90 35.5 76.2 0.791 0.908 0.825 0.94 32.3 67.3 0.816Ocklawaha R at Rodman Dam 02243960 0.867 0.751 -5.50 348. 558. 0.720 0.921 0.849 -5.12 252. 386. 0.827

Examples

Northern Watersheds

31

Withlacoochee River near Holder

12/19/2013

Add

32

Withlacoochee River near Holder

12/19/2013

Hillsborough River at Morris Bridge

12/19/201333

Hillsborough River at Morris Bridge

12/19/201334

35

Summary of Examples

12/19/2013

Both examples are good statistically except for low flows, which are too high in Hillsborough and too low in Withlacoochee

Withlacoochee Basin was difficult to calibrate due to large surface storage and groundwater contributions

Dry years are over-simulated and wet years are under-simulated, generally

NEXRAD rainfall appears to be low in early years and higher than gage rainfall in later years

Simulated Steamflow Volume Errors

Withlacoochee River - Holder Hillsborough River - Morris Br.

Obs. Flow (in) Error (%) Obs. Flow (in) Error (%)

Total Annual Flow 6.6 -0.1 10.5 4.1

25% High Flow 4.2 7.9 7.8 -4.6

50% High Flow 5.7 5.7 9.3 0.7

50% Low Flow 0.94 -35 1.2 30

25% Low Flow 0.25 -48. 0.42 28

Statistical MeasuresWithlacoochee River - Holder Hillsborough River - Morris Br.

Daily Monthly Daily Monthly

Correlation Coefficient 0.907 0.921 0.898 0.932

Coefficient of Determination 0.822 0.849 0.807 0.869

Mean Error (cfs) -0.65 0.4 12. 12.4

Mean Abs. Error (cfs) 299. 277. 109. 88.6

RMS Error (cfs) 463. 410. 234. 150.

Model Fit Efficiency (NS) 0.799 0.833 0.807 0.867

Watersheds in Southern Region

37

Manatee and Myakka-Sarasota Watersheds

12/19/2013

38

Peace-Charlotte Harbor Watershed

12/19/2013

39

Kissimmee Watershed

12/19/2013

40

Western Okeechobee and Caloosahatchee Watersheds

12/19/2013

41

Peace-Charlotte Harbor Watershed

12/19/2013

12/19/201342

Annual Flow 25% High Flow 50% High Flow 50% Low Flow 25% Low Flow

Site Name Site IDObs(in)

Rel Err(%)

Obs (in)

Rel Err(%)

Obs (in)

Rel Err(%)

Obs (in)

Rel Err(%)

Obs (in)

Rel Err(%)

Manatee River AreaLittle Manatee R nr Ft. Lonesome 02300100 17.7 4.5 13.6 -6.7 16.8 -1.6 0.92 117. 0.19 153.S F Little Manatee R nr Wimauma (2001-2006) 02300300 18.6 11. 13.7 -4.7 16.3 8.6 2.3 29. 0.80 -9.0Little Manatee R nr Wimauma 02300500 16.8 4.4 12.2 -5.6 14.9 2.2 1.9 22. 0.59 -15.Manatee R near Myakka Head 02299950 18.6 6.7 15.5 -2.5 17.5 6.8 1.1 4.7 0.34 -58.Gamble Creek near Parrish (2001-2006) 02300018 25.9 -11. 23.6 -21. 25.3 -14.7 0.55 143. 0.12 21.Braden R at Lakewood Ranch nr Lorraine 02300033 22.0 -11. 20.1 -20. 21.6 -14.1 0.46 115. 0.088 17.Ward Lake nr Bradenton 02300042 23.3 -25. 21.5 -25. 23.3 -25.4 0.022 239. low -Myakka River & Sarasota AreaMyakka R at Myakka City 02298608 21.3 0.1 17.6 -9.0 20.2 -1.4 1.0 30. 0.21 36.Myakka R nr Sarasota 02298830 17.2 1.5 13.1 4.8 16.2 3.1 1.0 -26. 0.17 -41.Big Slough Canal nr Myakka City 02299410 19.6 -0.3 17.6 -13 19.2 -2.5 0.45 93. 0.060 202.Big Slough at Tropicaire Blvd (2002-2006) 02299450 18.2 -2.1 15.4 -8.5 17.6 -3.0 0.53 27. 0.078 -8.0Walker Ck nr Sarasota 02299861 17.8 0.8 13.5 20 16.0 11. 1.7 -96. 0.54 -100.Peace River & Charlotte HarborPeace Ck Drainage Canal nr Wahneta 02293987 9.3 -0.7 7.2 -1.8 8.7 1.7 0.62 -34. 0.14 -85.Saddle Ck at St. Hwy 542 nr Lakeland 02294217 11.2 0.3 9.7 -9.3 10.9 -0.1 0.28 16. 0.014 -99.Peace R at Bartow 02294650 8.4 1.8 6.7 -8.9 7.9 -0.2 0.42 40. 0.070 -44.Peace R at Fort Meade 02294898 8.3 0.3 6.5 -7.1 7.9 -1.5 0.43 33. 0.046 9.1Bowlegs Ck nr Fort Meade 02295013 10.4 1.9 8.6 2.4 9.8 4.9 0.60 -48. 0.15 -77.Peace R at Zolfo Springs 02295637 10.5 1.6 7.6 2.8 9.5 3.3 0.96 -16. 0.20 -34.Charlie Ck nr Gardner 02296500 12.8 -0.6 11.0 -7.4 12.4 -1.7 0.42 32. 0.078 2.2Peace R at Arcadia 02296750 11.4 2.1 8.7 -0.4 10.5 2.7 0.94 -3.9 0.20 -14.Horse Ck nr Arcadia 02297310 15.0 -1.3 12.8 -13. 14.5 -4.1 0.54 73. 0.10 35.Shell Ck nr Punta Gorda 02298202 14.5 0.5 11.4 -10. 13.4 -1.4 1.11 23. 0.28 -6.3Kissimmee RiverShingle Ck at Airport nr Kissimmee 02263800 17.0 5.8 12.0 2.0 15.2 4.4 1.8 18. 0.47 18.Reedy Ck nr Vineland 02266300 11.3 3.8 8.1 2.7 10.1 5.0 1.2 -6.3 0.28 -2.5Catfish Ck nr Lake Wales 02267000 9.1 -0.5 4.4 23. 6.9 12. 2.2 -39. 0.57 -29.Boggy Ck nr Taft 02262900 14.6 -0.1 11.0 -9.7 13.2 -2.5 1.4 22. 0.37 15.Tiger Ck nr Babson Park 02268390 11.9 8.7 6.0 28. 8.8 20. 3.0 -25. 1.12 -38.Livingston Ck nr Frostproof 02269520 8.0 10. 4.9 15. 6.7 16. 1.3 -19. 0.40 -20.Carter Ck nr Sebring 02270000 7.3 -0.5 4.0 7.0 5.7 4.9 1.5 -21. 0.51 -21.Arbuckle Ck nr De Soto City 02270500 11.8 -3.9 7.8 -8.3 10.2 -4.4 1.6 -0.2 0.40 -15.Josephine Ck nr De Soto City 02271500 9.7 -2.7 7.1 -9.0 8.8 -3.1 0.89 1.1 0.19 -16.Western Okeechobee Fisheating Ck at Palmdale 02256500 12.9 2.5 11.5 -10. 12.7 -1.1 0.19 240. 0.016 209.Fisheating Ck at Lakeport 02257000 11.5 8.8 8.8 9.8 10.8 11. 0.79 -17. 0.20 -78.Caloosahatchee RiverCaloosahatchee R at S-79, nr. Olga 02292900 37.1 -15. 27.0 -20. 34.8 -21. 2.3 77. 0.12 966.Whiskey Ck at Ft. Myers 02293230 20.1 14. 14.0 16. 17.8 18. 2.3 -16. 0.61 -61.

Southern Region Calibration Results - Observed Annual Flows (inches) and Simulated Error Terms

Southern Region Calibration Results - Statistics of Daily and Monthly Flow Rates

12/19/201343

Site Name Site ID

Daily Flow Monthly Flow

Correl.Coeff.

Coeff. of Deter.

Mean Error (cfs)

Mean Abs.Err.

(cfs)

RMS Error (cfs)

Model Fit Effic.

Correl.Coeff.

Coeff. of Deter.

Mean Error (cfs)

Mean Abs.Err.

(cfs)

RMS Error (cfs)

Model Fit

Effic.Manatee River AreaLittle Manatee R nr Ft. Lonesome 02300100 0.785 0.616 1.8 23.9 46.8 0.614 0.916 0.839 1.8 15.1 20.0 0.837S F Little Manatee R nr Wimauma 02300300 0.795 0.633 6.0 35.1 63.4 0.628 0.859 0.738 5.8 22.7 32.0 0.721Little Manatee R nr Wimauma 02300500 0.803 0.644 8.3 108. 253. 0.624 0.906 0.821 7.9 63.9 94.6 0.820Manatee R near Myakka Head 02299950 0.816 0.666 6.1 52.1 154. 0.658 0.916 0.839 6.0 31.4 49.0 0.836Gamble Creek near Parrish (2001-2006) 02300018 0.577 0.333 -11.1 70.1 208 0.271 0.919 0.845 -11.1 37.7 62.6 0.762Braden R at Lakewood Ranch nr Lorraine 02300033 0.575 0.330 -4.7 34.6 116. 0.285 0.873 0.762 -4.6 19.6 34.5 0.700Ward Lake nr Bradenton 02300042 0.574 0.329 -25.3 82.2 249. 0.189 0.891 0.795 -25.1 44.9 85.2 0.694Myakka River & Sarasota AreaMyakka R at Myakka City 02298608 0.892 0.796 0.26 84.8 226. 0.762 0.939 0.882 0.20 66.7 104. 0.849Myakka R nr Sarasota 02298830 0.786 0.617 4.48 177. 366. 0.590 0.913 0.834 4.7 114. 160. 0.833Big Slough Canal nr Myakka City 02299410 0.730 0.533 -0.15 32.7 122. 0.509 0.877 0.769 -0.10 24.1 50.5 0.707Big Slough at Tropicaire Blvd 02299450 0.659 0.435 -2.20 62.3 192 0.393 0.890 0.792 -1.8 43.6 74.2 0.768Walker Ck nr Sarasota 02299861 0.837 0.701 0.05 4.0 9.4 0.652 0.906 0.821 0.051 2.1 3.2 0.818Peace River & Charlotte HarborPeace Ck Drainage Canal nr Wahneta 02293987 0.888 0.789 -0.75 47.3 78.3 0.772 0.909 0.827 -0.72 40.9 63.8 0.818Saddle Ck at St. Hwy 542 nr Lakeland 02294217 0.754 0.568 0.15 23.9 60.4 0.510 0.915 0.836 0.22 17.8 31.1 0.830Peace R at Bartow 02294650 0.864 0.746 4.49 117. 221. 0.740 0.921 0.848 4.74 95.1 159. 0.832Peace R at Fort Meade 02294898 0.858 0.736 0.88 127. 233. 0.728 0.916 0.84 1.26 99.5 162. 0.840Bowlegs Ck nr Fort Meade 02295013 0.567 0.322 0.66 22.9 84.2 -0.101 0.906 0.82 0.74 13.5 26.0 0.815Peace R at Zolfo Springs 02295637 0.805 0.649 10.1 256. 640. 0.556 0.952 0.906 10.9 160. 250. 0.905Charlie Ck nr Gardner 02296500 0.785 0.616 -1.91 152. 413. 0.597 0.948 0.899 -1.95 102. 173. 0.882Peace R at Arcadia 02296750 0.756 0.572 24.5 484. 1327. 0.485 0.957 0.915 25.2 275. 439. 0.915Horse Ck nr Arcadia 02297310 0.796 0.633 -3.22 128. 354. 0.620 0.919 0.845 -3.22 93.4 171. 0.806Shell Ck nr Punta Gorda 02298202 0.889 0.790 2.03 158. 309. 0.787 0.937 0.878 1.91 118. 194. 0.862Kissimmee RiverShingle Ck at Airport nr Kissimmee 02263800 0.777 0.604 6.44 57.0 108. 0.564 0.877 0.770 6.53 39.5 59.4 0.767Reedy Ck nr Vineland 02266300 0.885 0.783 2.68 27.6 51.6 0.780 0.926 0.858 2.65 21.8 33.0 0.854Catfish Ck nr Lake Wales 02267000 0.770 0.593 -0.22 16.7 22.7 0.276 0.780 0.609 -0.19 16.1 21.8 0.280Boggy Ck nr Taft 02262900 0.825 0.680 -0.09 43.5 88.4 0.678 0.841 0.707 0.06 37.3 63.4 0.707Tiger Ck nr Babson Park 02268390 0.886 0.785 4.02 17.3 29.8 0.358 0.917 0.842 4.02 16.3 24.7 0.418Livingston Ck nr Frostproof 02269520 0.862 0.742 7.02 26.5 43.4 0.640 0.887 0.788 7.04 24.3 38.4 0.663Carter Ck nr Sebring 02270000 0.750 0.563 -0.10 8.5 14.4 0.410 0.770 0.592 -0.08 7.56 11.2 0.459Arbuckle Ck nr De Soto City 02270500 0.833 0.694 -12.8 118 221 0.683 0.880 0.774 -13.1 104. 161. 0.769Josephine Ck nr De Soto City 02271500 0.801 0.642 -2.13 35.5 71.4 0.639 0.884 0.781 -2.14 28.0 44.8 0.780Western Okeechobee Fisheating Ck at Palmdale 02256500 0.782 0.611 7.3 188. 379. 0.607 0.892 0.796 7.3 133. 207. 0.789Fisheating Ck at Lakeport 02257000 0.611 0.373 -22.0 317. 620. 0.239 0.820 0.672 -22.3 222. 338. 0.650Caloosahatchee RiverCaloosahatchee R at S-79, nr. Olga 02292900 0.888 0.788 -360. 916. 1516. 0.764 0.934 0.873 -358 667 1035 0.846Whiskey Ck at Ft. Myers 02293230 0.666 0.444 1.6 7.6 16.3 0.271 0.829 0.688 1.6 4.9 7.3 0.611

Examples

Southern Watersheds

Peace River at Arcadia

12/19/201345

Peace River at Arcadia

12/19/201346

Braden River near Lorraine (Manatee)

12/19/201347

Braden River near Lorraine (Manatee)

12/19/201348

49

Summary of examples

12/19/2013

Peace River is good statistically except for low flows, especially in two dry years (2000 and 2006)

Braden River (Manatee tributary) was difficult to calibrate; possibly because watershed/reach storage is under estimated, since peaks are early

Braden River low flows are over-simulated

Simulated Steamflow Volume Errors

Peace River - Arcadia Braden River - Lorraine

Obs. Flow (in) Error Obs. Flow (in) Error

Total Annual Flow 11.4 2.1% 22.0 -11%

25% High Flow 8.7 -0.4% 20.1 -20%

50% High Flow 10.5 2.7% 21.6 -14%

50% Low Flow 0.94 -3.9% 0.46 115%

25% Low Flow 0.20 -14.% 0.088 17%

Statistical MeasuresPeace River - Arcadia Braden River - Lorraine

Daily Monthly Daily Monthly

Correlation Coefficient 0.765 0.957 0.575 0.873Coefficient of Determination 0.572 0.915 0.330 0.762Mean Error (cfs) 24.5 25.2 -4.7 -4.6Mean Absolute Error (cfs) 484. 275. 34.6 19.6RMS Error (cfs) 1327. 439. 116. 34.5Model Fit Efficiency (NS) 0.485 0.915 0.285 0.700

50

Sample – Little Manatee River near Wimauma

12/19/2013

51

Little Manatee River near Wimauma

12/19/2013

52

Little Manatee River near Wimauma

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53

Little Manatee River near Wimauma

12/19/2013

54

Little Manatee River near Wimauma

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55

Little Manatee River near Wimauma

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56

Little Manatee River near Wimauma

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57

Little Manatee River near Wimauma

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58

Little Manatee River near Wimauma

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Little Manatee River near Wimauma

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Little Manatee River near Wimauma

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Little Manatee River near Wimauma

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Little Manatee River near Wimauma

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63

Little Manatee River near Wimauma

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64

Little Manatee River near Wimauma

12/19/2013

65

Other Calibration Metrics

12/19/2013

Water Balance Target ET Baseflow Separation

66

Water Balance (inches) Hillsborough River at Morris Bridge near Thonotosassa

12/19/2013

Component ForestGrass/

PastureAgri-

culture/Mining/ Other

Urban WetlandImper-vious

WaterWeighted Average

Influx

Rainfall 50.4 50.5 50.4 50.1 51.2 50.5 51.2 51.2 50.7

Irrigation 15.3 1.1

Overflow from Withlacoochee R. 57.7 1.1Point Source 80.8 1.5Flow from Crystal Springs 12.1 0.2

Runoff

Surface 0.7 1.7 2.9 2.5 4.1 0.0 34.9 4.3Interflow 1.8 2.3 2.9 1.6 2.6 1.0 1.9Base flow 2.6 2.0 2.5 1.6 1.2 1.1 1.6Total 5.2 6.1 8.3 5.7 7.9 2.1 34.9 7.8

GW Inflow

Deep 8.8 8.0 16.5 5.9 7.4 8.6 7.9Active 6.3 5.8 6.6 3.3 4.5 10.9 6.0

Evaporation

Potential 51.4 51.4 51.4 51.3 51.4 51.3 51.4 51.5 51.4Interception Storage 15.4 13.9 16.6 13.9 13.8 9.6 16.3 13.3Upper Zone 5.5 7.3 9.1 6.8 7.9 12.2 7.7Lower Zone 12.0 11.7 11.2 16.3 11.2 8.2 9.9Ground Water 3.5 3.6 4.1 1.8 3.3 9.7 4.4Base flow 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2Total 36.6 36.7 41.2 38.9 36.3 40.1 16.3 43.4 36.2Target 43.4 32.9 41.0 42.0 35.3 49.4 15.0 55.0 37.5

Area-Weighted Target ET (inches/year) and Simulated Errors for Selected Watersheds

12/19/201367

Site Name Site ID ForestError(%)

Grass/ Pasture

Error(%)

Agric./ Irrigated

Error(%)

Mining/Other

Error(%)

UrbanError(%)

WetlandError(%)

ImpervError(%)

Hillsborough River AreaHillsborough R at Morris Br 02303330 43.4 -16% 32.9 12% 41.0 0% 42.0 -7% 35.3 3% 49.4 -19% 15. 9%Cypress Ck nr Sulphur Springs 02303800 41.9 -10% 31.9 13% 42.5 -6% 42.0 -9% 35.2 0% 47.9 -11% 15. 7%Alafia River AreaBullfrog Creek nr Wimauma 02300700 42.8 -20% 32.1 3% 42.5 -16% 42.0 -12% 35.8 -10% 47.7 -7% 15. 11%Alafia R at Lithia 02301500 40.8 -15% 31.9 7% 43.9 -20% 42.0 -5% 36.0 -8% 44.9 -10% 15. 7%Crystal-Pithlachascotee River AreaAnclote R nr Elfers 02310000 42.9 27% 32.6 -4% 41.7 8% 42.0 16% 36.3 5% 48.3 18% 15. 25%Withlacoochee River Withlacoochee R nr Cumpressco 02310947 43.9 -18% 32.9 10% 44.3 1% 42.0 -10% 37.1 -7% 48.1 -21% 15. 11%Little Withlacoochee R at Rerdell 02312200 44.7 -13% 33.6 13% 42.6 4% 42.0 -9% 37.4 -16% 49.4 -16% 15. 47%Withlacoochee R nr Holder 02313000 38.8 1% 29.2 31% 38.2 17% 42.0 -8% 31.7 11% 45.8 -11% 15. 41%Waccasassa RiverWaccasassa R nr Gulf Hammock 02313700 36.6 8% 26.5 43% 43.5 1% 42.0 -11% 30.3 23% 42.3 -6% 15. 10%Oklawaha RiverBig Ck nr Clermont 02236500 35.0 11% 26.0 45% 43.7 -10% 42.0 -11% 30.0 25% 40.0 -6% 15. 33%Apopka-Beauclair Canal nr Astatula 02237700 35.0 5% 26.0 37% 40.5 -5% 42.0 -11% 30.1 19% 40.0 -14% 15. 30%Haynes Ck at Lisbon 02238000 35.0 8% 26.0 41% 38.7 1% 42.0 -11% 30.0 22% 40.0 -11% 15. 28%Ocklawaha R nr Conner 02240000 35.2 9% 26.1 45% 40.2 -3% 42.0 -11% 30.1 25% 40.4 -10% 15. 30%Orange Ck at Orange Springs 02243000 39.0 -1% 35.2 6% 26.1 50% 42.0 -11% 30.1 27% 40.6 -7% 15. 27%Manatee River AreaLittle Manatee R nr Wimauma 02300500 44.2 -14% 33.7 7% 44.1 -9% 42.0 -14% 37.6 -4% 49.3 -14% 15. 14%Manatee R near Myakka Head 02299950 40.5 -9% 30.6 13% 44.1 -14% 42.0 -21% 34.5 -2% 45.9 -1% 15. 17%Myakka River & Sarasota AreaMyakka R nr Sarasota 02298830 40.4 -7% 30.8 19% 43.8 -5% 42.0 -17% 34.2 9% 46.8 -12% 15. 17%Peace River & Charlotte HarborSaddle Ck at St. Hwy 542 nr Lakeland 02294217 43.8 -11% 32.7 16% 40.2 19% 42.0 -14% 36.2 4% 48.1 -16% 15. 32%Bowlegs Ck nr Fort Meade 02295013 40.6 -5% 31 22% 44.8 0% n/a n/a 35.3 6% 46.7 -12% 15. 27%Charlie Ck nr Gardner 02296500 39.8 -6% 29.9 22% 42.8 2% 42.0 -14% 33.8 5% 44.8 -13% 15. 33%Peace R at Arcadia 02296750 40.6 -6% 30.5 21% 43.9 0% 42.0 -11% 34.9 6% 45.5 -10% 15. 45%Horse Ck nr Arcadia 02297310 40.2 -3% 30.3 25% 44.1 2% 42.0 -10% 34.1 11% 45.5 -5% 15. 35%Kissimmee RiverShingle Ck at Airport nr Kissimmee 02263800 40.6 -23% 30.0 2% 38.3 -13% 42.0 -15% 34.0 -33% 44.8 -39% 15. 20%Catfish Ck nr Lake Wales 02267000 36.8 2% 28.1 27% 44.1 -10% 42.0 -16% 31.7 12% 41.4 0% 15. 32%Tiger Ck nr Babson Park 02268390 36.5 2% 28.4 26% 44.4 -10% 42.0 -18% 31.7 13% 40.6 6% 15. 33%Carter Ck nr Sebring 02270000 38.9 -2% 29.4 24% 44 -9% n/a n/a 33.5 8% 43.5 2% 15. 47%Josephine Ck nr De Soto City 02271500 38.7 -4% 29.1 21% 43.8 -13% 42.0 -14% 32.7 8% 43.3 -5% 15. 33%Western Okeechobee Fisheating Ck at Lakeport 02257000 40.9 -11% 30.2 11% 44.7 -20% 42.0 -20% 33.8 -2% 46.3 -11% 15. 14%Caloosahatchee RiverCaloosahatchee R at S-79, nr. Olga 02292900 42.4 1% 31.8 -23% 45.0 -1% 42.0 11% 37.0 -2% 47.5 15% 15. 18%

68

Baseflow Separation - Mean Annual Baseflow (Observed vs. Simulated) for Selected Gages

12/19/2013

Site Name Site ID Observed Simulated DifferencePercent

Difference

Hillsborough R at Morris Br 02303330 2.31 2.87 0.57 25%

Alafia R at Lithia 02301500 2.45 2.10 -0.35 -14%

Withlacoochee R nr Holder 02313000 2.59 1.50 -1.08 -42%

Little Manatee R nr Wimauma 02300500 2.54 3.81 1.27 50%

Manatee R near Myakka Head 02299950 1.41 1.53 0.12 8%

Myakka R nr Sarasota 02298830 1.33 0.45 -0.89 -66%

Big Slough Canal nr Myakka City 02299410 0.45 0.63 0.18 39%

Peace R at Bartow 02294650 0.83 1.04 0.21 25%

Peace R at Arcadia 02296750 1.39 0.98 -0.40 -29%

69

Model Performance Summary

12/19/2013

Statistical measures of calibration indicate that many of the main river basins are fairly well calibrated at the outlets; correlation coefficients for daily flows at these gages range from 0.75 (Poor) for the Peace River to 0.91 (Good) for the Withlacoochee River, based on typical hydrology calibration criteria.

Average daily correlation coefficient at all gages: 0.783 The monthly flow correlation coefficients at the major gages are generally

better, and are all above 0.90 (Good). Results at the smaller gages are variable, with some poor statistical comparisons and some good. Average: 0.894

Errors in total flow and 25%/50% high flows are small, and flow frequency comparisons are good at higher flows

Some of the calibration error is attributable to apparent errors in the principal hydrological input (rainfall). The NEXRAD rainfall dataset appears to be lower than gage-based rainfall in the earlier years of the model calibration period (WY 1996-2006), and higher in the later years, specifically it is higher in 2004-06, and lower prior to 2004

Low flow years are over-simulated and high flow years are under-simulated in many watersheds

HSPF:HYDROLOGIC SIMULATION PROGRAM - FORTRAN

Continuous simulation model

Natural and developed watersheds and water systems

Land surface and subsurface hydrology and quality processes

Stream/lake hydraulics and water quality processes

Time series data management and storage

Core watershed model in EPA BASINS

Development and maintenance activities sponsored by U.S. EPA and U.S. Geological Survey

CONTINUOUS SIMULATION

Represent hydrologic processes, storages, and pathways for a watershed, continuously for many days to multiple years, with time steps of one day or less, usually in the range of minutes to hours

72 of 32

RESULTS FROM CONTINUOUS SIMULATION

Daily Flow Flow Duration/Frequency

Storm Hydrographs

HSPF APPLICATION & UTILITY MODULES

PERLND IMPLND RCHRES

Snow Snow Hydraulics

Water Water Conservative

Sediment Solids Temperature

Quality Quality Sediment

Pesticide Nonconservative

Nitrogen BOD/DO

Phosphorus Nitrogen

Tracer Phosphorus

Carbon

Plankton

BMP

Flow

Any constituentsimulated in PERLND, IMPLND or RCHRES

APPLICATION MODULES

UTILITY MODULES

COPY, MUTSIN, PLTGEN, DURANL, GENER, DISPLY, REPORT

HSPF - STRENGTHS• Comprehensive representation of watershed land and

stream processes

• Comprehensive representation of watershed pollutant sources, including nonpoint sources (by multiple land uses), point sources, atmospheric, etc.

• Flexibility and adaptability to a wide range of watershed conditions

• Well-designed code modularity and structure

• Companion database and support programs to assist model users (e.g., BASINS, WDMUtil, WinHSPF, GenScn, HSPEXP+)

• Development and support by U.S. EPA and USGS

HSPF - LIMITATIONS AND WEAKNESSES

• Extensive data requirements

• User training normally required

• Lack of comprehensive parameter guidance

• Large number of parameters

• Limited spatial definition (i.e., lumped parameter approach)

• Hydraulics limited to non-tidal freshwater systems

and unidirectional flow

• Simplified representation of urban drainage systems

HSPF APPLICATION PROCESS Study definition

Development of modeling strategy

Learn how to use HSPF

Development of time series data

Parameter development

Calibration/validation

Analysis of alternate scenarios

HSPF HYDROLOGY

PROCESSES PARAMETERSCALIBRATION

78 of 35

THE HYDROLOGIC CYCLE

HYDROLOGIC COMPONENTS

Hydrologic Components:•Rainfall•Interception•Depression

storage•Evapotranspirati

on•Infiltration •Surface storage •Runoff•Interflow•Groundwater

flow

Evapotranspiration

Interception

Depressionstorage

Ground surface

Capillaryrise

Precipitation

Infiltration

Soil moisture

Percolation

Groundwaterstorage

Underground flow into or out of the

area

Ground water flow

Streamflow

Interflow

Surface runoff

Channel pptn.

WATER BALANCE

Water balance equation

R = P - ET - IG - ΔS

where: P = PrecipitationR = RunoffET = EvapotranspirationIG = Deep/inactive

groundwater ΔS = Change in soil storage

Inter-relationships between components

Variation of components with time• consideration of soil condition, cover,

antecedent conditions, land practices

STANFORD WATERSHED MODEL

To Stream

Actual ET

Potential ETPrecipitationTemperature

RadiationWind, Dewpoint

Snowmelt

InterceptionStorage

Lower ZoneStorage

GroundwaterStorage

InterflowUpper Zone Storage

Overland Flow

Deep or InactiveGroundwater

CEPSC*

BASETP*

AGWETP*

DEEPFR*

LZSN*

INFILT*

INTFW*UZSN*

AGWRC*

NSUR*SLSUR*LSUR*

IRC*

Delayed Infiltration

DirectInfiltration

PERC

1 ET

2 ET

3 ET

4 ET

5 ETLZETP*

* Parameters

Output

Process

Input

Storage

ET - Evapotranspiration

n Order taken tomeet ET demand

Decision

PWATER PARAMETERSCEPSC - Interception storage capacity

NSUR - Manning’s N for overland flow plane

LSUR - Length of assumed overland flow plane

SLSUR - Slope of assumed overland flow plane

INFILT - Index to infiltration capacity of the soil

UZSN - Upper zone nominal soil moisture

storage

LZSN - Lower zone nominal soil moisture

storage

LZETP - Lower zone ET parameter; index to

density of

deep-rooted vegetation

PWATER PARAMETERS INTFW - Interflow inflow parameter

IRC - Interflow recession parameter (the ratio of interflow outflow rate today / rate yesterday)

KVARY - Variable groundwater recession parameter

AGWRC - Basic groundwater recession rate (when KVARY is 0)

DEEPFR - Fraction of groundwater inflow which will enter deep (inactive) groundwater

BASETP - Fraction of remaining potential ET which can be

satisfied from baseflow

AGWETP - Fraction of remaining potential ET which can be

satisfied from active groundwater storage

PWATER PARAMETERS

INTFW - Interflow inflow parameter

IRC - Interflow recession parameter, i.e., the ratio of

interflow

outflow rate today / rate yesterday

LZETP - Lower zone ET parameter; an index to the

density of

deep-rooted vegetation

Mean runoff volume for simulation period (inches)

Annual and monthly runoff volume (inches)

Daily flow timeseries (cfs) observed and simulated daily flow scatter plots

Flow frequency (flow duration) curves (cfs)

Storm hydrographs, hourly or less, (cfs)

CALIBRATION/VALIDATION COMPARISONS

“Weight-of-Evidence” Approach

Precipitation Total Runoff (sum of following components)

Overland flow Interflow Baseflow

Total Actual Evapotranspiration (ET) (sum of components): Interception ET Upper Zone ET Lower Zone ET Baseflow ET Active Groundwater ET

Deep Groundwater Recharge/Losses

CALIBRATION/VALIDATION COMPARISONS

Water Balance Components

Graphical Comparisons: Timeseries plots of observed and simulated values for

fluxes (e.g., flow) or state variables (e.g., stage, sediment concentration, biomass concentration)

Observed and simulated scatter plots, with 45o linear regression line displayed, for fluxes or state variables

Cumulative frequency distributions of observed and simulated fluxes or state variable (e.g., flow duration curves)

Statistical Tests: Error statistics, e.g., mean error, absolute mean error,

relative error, relative bias, standard error of estimate, etc.

Correlation tests, e.g., correlation coefficient, coefficient of model-fit efficiency, etc.

Cumulative Distribution tests, e.g., Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test

CALIBRATION/VALIDATION COMPARISONS

Graphical/Statistical Procedures & Tests

R & R2 VALUE RANGES FOR MODEL PERFORMANCE

Criteria

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9Poor Fair Good Very Good

Poor Fair Good Very Good

0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95R2

Daily FlowsMonthly Flows

R

HYDROLOGIC (PWATER) CALIBRATION• Annual Water Balance -

Runoff = Prec. - Actual ET - Deep Perc. - Δ Storage

Key Parameters: Repre. Precipitation (MFACT)LZSNLZETPINFILTDEEPFR

• Groundwater (Baseflow) Volume and Recession -

Runoff = Surface Runoff + Interflow + Baseflow

Key Parameters: INFILTAGWRC/KVARYDEEPFRBASETP/AGWETP

• Surface Runoff + Interflow (Hydrograph Shape) -

Key Parameters: UZSNINTFWIRCLSUR, NSUR, SLSUR

IMPERVIOUS AREA - IWATER

IWATER

Simulate water budgetfor imperviousland segment

Simulate moistureretention

Determine howmuch of themoisture supplyruns off

Evaporate fromretention storage

IWATER CALIBRATION

Imperviousarea process

IWATERparameter

Interception RETSC – retention storage

Overland flow/runoff LSUR, NSUR, SLSUR

Evaporation (no parameter, occurs at PET)

HSPF INTERFACES

• WinHSPF– Interactive interface to HSPF– Access to all HSPF Features– Scenario development

• WinHSPFLt– Interface to HSPF (batch)

• HSPEXP+– Hydrologic calibration support

HSPF SUPPORTING PROGRAMSBASINS

– Build/maintain WDM time series file and meteorologic data for HSPF and other models

– Meteorologic data generation and fill-in– Graphical and tabular display of time series data– Etc.

WDMUtil (becoming obsolete)– Build/maintain WDM time series file and

meteorologic data for BASINS– Meteorologic data generation and fill-in– Graphical and tabular display of time series data

GenScn (becoming obsolete)– Graphical and tabular display of time series data

FILES UTILIZED BY HSPF

• UCI (User’s Control Input) - contains all input except time series data

• Run Interpreter Output (ECH) - output summary of user’s input

• Operation Module Output - state variables and fluxes at user-selected intervals for PERLND/IMPLND/RCHRES

• WDM - time series data input and output (binary format)

• PLTGEN/MUTSIN/SEQ - Time series data input and output (text format)

• HSPF Binary Output - Operation module output in binary format

• Basin Specifications (EXS) - contains information for the HSPF hydrology calibration support program HSPEXP+

Recharge and ET Estimation

96

STANFORD WATERSHED MODEL

To Stream

Actual ET

Potential ETPrecipitationTemperature

RadiationWind,Dewpoint

Snowmelt

InterceptionStorage

Lower ZoneStorage

GroundwaterStorage

InterflowUpper Zone Storage

Overland Flow

Deep or InactiveGroundwater

CEPSC*

BASETP*

AGWETP*

DEEPFR*

LZSN*

INFILT*

INTFW*UZSN*

AGWRC*

NSUR*SLSUR*LSUR*

IRC*

Delayed Infiltration

DirectInfiltration

PERC

1 ET

2 ET

3 ET

4 ET

5 ETLZETP*

* Parameters

Output

Process

Input

Storage

ET - Evapotranspiration

n Order taken tomeet ET demand

Decision

ETVadose

ETSat IGWI

AGWI

AGWET

BASET 12/19/2013

97 12/19/2013

AGWI

IGWI BASET

AGWET

98

Infiltration, Effective Recharge and ET in MODFLOW

I = AGWI + IGWI

Vadose Zone

R’

IETSat

Groundwater

I = PrecipEff - ETVadose

12/19/2013

ETsat = AGWET + BASET =

99 12/19/2013

Extinction Depth

ET at depth d below ET surface ET Surface

DE

d

ET From Groundwater

ETMax

100 12/19/2013

BASINS 4.1

*_REC.WDM File

SubbasinAGWI, IAGWI,

AGWET, BASET

Arc/MAP

Shapefiles

Landuse, Grid

GridAGWI, IAGWI,

AGWET, BASET

GW Model

FilesRCH, EVT

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BASINS 4.1

*_REC.WDM File

SubbasinAGWI, IAGWI,

AGWET, BASET

Arc/MAP

Shapefiles

Landuse, Grid

GridAGWI, IAGWI,

AGWET, BASET

GW Model

FilesRCH, EVT

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Processing

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Model_REC.WDM

Text_Grid_Format.txt

SubbasinAGWI, IAGWI,

AGWET, BASET

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Step 1: Open BASINS

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Step 2: Select File Type

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File>Open Data

Select a File Type>WDM Time Series> OK

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Step 3: Select File

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Select File> Open

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Step 4: Open Data File

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Select by clicking on Filename

Analysis>List

File>Manage Data

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Step 5: Select Data Sets

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Yes W A I T…………

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Step 6: Select Data to List

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OK

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Time Series List

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Adjust Formats

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Time Series ListView> Date and Value Formats

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Selected Formats

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Select Attributes to be Included

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Time Series List

File>Select Attributes

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Save Data File as a Text File

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File>Save Grid as Text

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Save Data File

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Saving Data File

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BASINS 4.1

*_REC.WDM File

SubbasinAGWI, IAGWI,

AGWET, BASET

Arc/MAP

Shapefiles

Landuse, Grid

GridAGWI, IAGWI,

AGWET, BASET

GW Model

FilesRCH, EVT

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Transfer of Arrays to Grid Cells using ArcMAP

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Area-Weighted Average of Infil and ET

Apply intersection of Polygons to determine contributions of respective units

Upscale from LU SubBasin Basin Cell

SUBASIN i in BASIN j

SUBBASIN m in BASIN n

LU1

LU1 LU2

GRID CELL

BASIN nBASIN j

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Plots

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Annual 1995, 2000, 2004 (Net Recharge) Annual 1995, 2000, 2004 (I 2) Annual 1995, 2000, 2004 (ET 2)

1995 Net Infiltration

2000 Net Infiltration

2004 Net Infiltration

1995 Total Infiltration

2000 Total Infiltration

2004 Total Infiltration

1995 ET

2000 ET

2004 ET

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NonNorthern District Model

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NorthernBasin

EasternBasin

CentralBasin

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

In/Y

r

Year

Northern Basin

Infiltration

ET

Infiltration-ET

NDM_Rech

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-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

In/Y

r

Year

Eastern Basin

Infiltration

ET

Infiltration-ET

NDM_Rech

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0

5

10

15

20

25

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

In/Y

r

Year

Central Basin

Infiltration

ET

Infiltration-ET

NDM_Rech

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BASINS 4.1

*_REC.WDM File

SubbasinAGWI, IAGWI,

AGWET, BASET

Arc/MAP

Shapefiles

Landuse, Grid

GridAGWI, IAGWI,

AGWET, BASET

GW Model

FilesRCH, EVT

UnitModel Layer

Number of Wells

Mean Error (ft)

Mean Absolute Error (ft)

RMSE (ft)Minimum Residual

(ft)

Maximum Residual

(ft)SA 1 117 -1.12 6.54 9.33 -26.97 52.05UFAS 3 - 5 267 0.52 4.35 6.23 -22.49 29.58 Suwannee Limestone 3 86 -0.53 4.71 7.11 -22.49 29.58 Ocala Limestone 4 118 0.83 3.85 5.29 -9.82 21.74 Upper Avon Park Formation 5 63 1.35 4.79 6.55 -15.58 20.61MCUI/MCUII 6 1 -12.28 12.28 12.28 -12.28 -12.28

Northern Groundwater Basin

UnitModel Layer

Number of Wells

Mean Error (ft)

Mean Absolute Error (ft)

RMSE (ft)Minimum Residual

(ft)

Maximum Residual

(ft)SA 1 6 -2.38 8.74 12.08 -26.97 7.90UFAS 3 - 5 139 0.63 4.02 5.14 -15.58 14.19 Suwannee Limestone 3 17 0.69 3.97 4.92 -6.37 11.30 Ocala Limestone 4 73 0.51 3.79 4.74 -9.82 11.41 Upper Avon Park Formation 5 49 0.80 4.38 5.75 -15.58 14.19MCUI/MCUII 6 1 -12.28 12.28 12.28 -12.28 -12.28

Central Groundwater Basin

UnitModel Layer

Number of Wells

Mean Error (ft)

Mean Absolute Error (ft)

RMSE (ft)Minimum Residual

(ft)

Maximum Residual

(ft)SA 1 101 -1.71 5.98 7.52 -20.07 19.90UFAS 3 - 5 93 0.80 5.47 8.13 -22.49 29.58 Suwannee Limestone 3 66 -0.84 5.08 7.72 -22.49 29.58 Ocala Limestone 4 14 5.93 6.19 8.95 -0.90 21.74 Upper Avon Park Formation 5 13 3.60 6.63 9.14 -8.87 20.61MCUI/MCUII 6 0 N/A N/A N/A 0.00 0.00

Residual = (Simulated - Observed) * Observation Weight

Eastern Groundwater Basin

UnitModel Layer

Number of Wells

Mean Error (ft)

Mean Absolute Error (ft)

RMSE (ft)Minimum Residual

(ft)

Maximum Residual

(ft)SA 1 10 5.54 10.85 19.00 -12.70 52.05UFAS 3 - 5 34 -0.63 2.95 4.00 -8.55 8.92 Suwannee Limestone 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Ocala Limestone 4 33 -0.62 3.01 4.05 -8.55 8.92 Upper Avon Park Formation 5 1 -0.96 0.96 0.17 -0.96 -0.96MCUI/MCUII 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

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Hands-on Session

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Install software BASINS HSPEXP+ Model files

Learn Concepts and How to Make Changes Programs Model files Outputs generated

Make a run WinHspfLt or HSPEXP+

Review Output Graphs Statistics and Errors Water Balance and other Summaries

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Install Software

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Download BASINS package http://aquaterra.com/basins4/BASINS4.1.2013.04.exx Change file extension to exe Uninstall any previous versions of BASINS Run the file as an administrator to install

Download HSPEXP+ http://aquaterra.com/pub/DSWM/HSPEXP+.zip Unzip the file and run setup.exe to install

Download Model files http://aquaterra.com/pub/DSWM/ModelFiles.zip Unzip the file Copy the three separate directories (HAT, EXT, OKL) to

the C:\BASINS41\modelout directory

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Learn Concepts

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Watershed Model Files (XXX = three letter code for watershed)

XXX.uci – primary input file for watershed Contains all parameters, option flags, land use, watershed connectivity, and

instructions for reading input and writing output Text file; column-specific inputs in all active lines; three * indicate a comment

line Experience with HSPF and access to User’s Manual are “necessary”

XXX.wdm – time series input and output data for watershed Binary file; access/maintain with BASINS or WDMUtil Multiple datasets

XXX_MET.wdm - WDM file containing meteorological time series input data for watershed

XXX_IRR.wdm – WDM file containing irrigation and surface water pumping data for watershed

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Watershed Model Files (continued)

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XXX_REC.wdm – WDM file containing recharge-related output for watershed

XXX.exs – one or more “basin description” files for defining information used by the HSPEXP+ program to generate graphical and statistical output at specific “outlet” locations in the watershed

XXX.out – PERLND, IMPLND, RCHRES output summaries at user-defined intervals (text file)

XXX.hbn - PERLND, IMPLND, RCHRES output summaries at user-defined intervals (binary file) for use by post-processing programs

XXX.ech – output file; echo/summary of all info in the UCI file; contains error/warning messages

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Programs (review from earlier)

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BASINS – display time series data graphically and listing; build/maintain WDM files and datasets; generate meteorological data; much more!

HSPEXP+ - runs simulation; generates statistical and graphical output at locations in watershed; provides hydrology calibration advice

WDMUtil – build/maintain WDM files and datasets; generate meteorological data

WinHspf – run HSPF models; edit UCI file; implement scenarios; set up output locations in model

WinHspfLt – run HSPF model (batch)

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Outputs Generated by HSPF

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XXX.out – textfile summaries of state variables and fluxes at user-defined intervals for HSPF operations (PERLND, RCHRES, IMPLND)

XXX.hbn – binary file version of XXX.out (used by HSPEXP or BASINS to generate statistics and other outputs)

XXX.ech – echo of UCI file information; error/warning messages

XXX.wdm – HSPF writes timeseries output to the primary WDM file (flow rates and other information specific to subwatershed outlets)

XXX_REC.wdm – recharge-related timeseries output (AGWET, BASET, AGWI, IGWI)

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Outputs Generated by HSPEXP+

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Look in subdirectory with name: Reports_201312181302

Hydrographs Full period, Annual, Log, Monthly

Flow Duration graphs Cumulative Flow graphs Statistical Summaries - all are text files

DailyMonthlyFlowStats - *.txt AnnualFlowStats - *.txt MonthlyAverageFlowStats - *.txt Expert System Statistics - *.sts Expert System Calibration Advice - *.adv

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Examples - graphs

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Examples – Daily Flow Stats

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RCH418: Daily Simulated Observed Count 4,110 4,110 Mean 305.34 310.06 Geometric Mean 271.89 287.48

Note: TS, Time Series

Correlation Coefficient 0.884 Coefficient of Determination 0.781 Mean Error -4.716 Mean Absolute Error 58.961 RMS Error 81.485 Model Fit Efficiency 0.673

Table 1 TS 1 - EXT RCH418 SIMQ TS 2 - WEKIVA RIVER NEAR SANFORD, FL

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Examples – Expert System Statistics

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Expert System Statistics for EXT.uci Simulation Period: 3 Water years from 2003/10/01 to 2006/09/30 Site: RCH507

Total (3 year run)

Observed Simulated Simulated Simulated Total Runoff Total Runoff Surface Runoff Interflow total (inches) = 236.74 238.17 1.289 5.073 10% high (inches) = 37.895 36.983 25% high (inches) = 77.75 78.459 50% high (inches) = 136.27 138.89 50% low (inches) = 100.48 99.272 25% low (inches) = 47.993 47.04 10% low (inches) = 18.809 18.145 storm volume (inches) = 23.235 22.697 0.78 2.446 average storm peak (cfs) = 277.52 277.57 78.81 50.655 baseflow recession rate = 0.998 0.997 summer volume (inches) = 58.131 58.679 winter volume (inches) = 56.313 56.803 summer storms (inches) = 7.971 8.119 0.044 0.353 winter storms (inches) = 0 0 0 0

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Make a Model Run with WinHspfLt

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Open C:\Basins41\modelout\EXT directory Browse to UCI file Drag file to WinHspfLt icon on desktop Alternatively, doubleclick WinHspfLt icon, browse

to UCI file, and click Open

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Make a Model Run with HSPEXP+

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Start – Programs Browse to HSPEXP+ and start the program Use Browse button to browse to the UCI file; click

Open Toggle (√) the following 5 items:

Run WinHspfLt before calculating the statistics Calculate Expert Statistics Produce Land Use and watershed area reports Produce standard monthly flow…graphs Produce Water Balance reports

Enter the following numbers in the red-bordered box: 312,316,415,418,434,507,508 (these are outlet reach ID numbers where observed flow data are available)

Click Start

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HSPEXP+

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Create Time Series Graphs with BASINS 4.1

Open BASINS from Start Menu.

Go to File Open Data Select WDM Time Series Click OK

Browse to Desired WDM Time Series Click OK

View the Data File(s) opened by BASINS 4.1 The file is opened by BASINS 4.1 and you may

view the file by going to File Manage Data

Go to AnalysisGraph From the Data Sources Window or BASINS 4.1

window.

Click No at the selection Window

Data Selection Window

Select Desired Locations and Constituents to see the matching data

You can view more attributes of Data by Clicking on Attributes Add and then selecting the desired attributes.

Select Desired Matching Data by Clicking on it. Selected Data shows up on Selection Pane near bottom

Verify the Time Periods, Time Step; Change if Needed, and Click OK.

Select the Types of Graphs Desired and Click Generate

Selected Graphs are Produced

EditGraph This window can be used to edit colors, scale,

legend, font, add lines etc.

On Scatter Plot go to Edit Graph Lines

Click on Add with Equation Y (second Add Button) to get a Y=X line Edit the label and color of the new line. Click on Apply.

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Make a model run to see the effects of parameter changes

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EXT model Adjust parameters for the PERLNDs that contribute to

RCHRES 415 (Little Wekiva River) RCHRES 415 represents SJRWMD gage at Springs

Landing Increase INFILT (PWAT-PARM2 table) to try to reduce the

peak flows; make use of comments in UCI file to locate the PERLNDs that contribute to RCHRES 415

Save modified UCI file and then run the model and generate outputs using HSPEXP+

Compare hydrographs, duration plot, cumulative flow graph, and expert statistics for RCHRES 415 for the original run and your new run

See next slide for instructions

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Run HSPEXP+

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Make changes to UCI file with a text editor

Save file Start HSPEXP+ Browse to EXT.uci Check the boxes

shown in the figure Enter 415 in the red

box Click Start Review/compare

results for the two runs