Disaster Risk Assessment Tools and Applications Better Information Smarter Investments 2012 Pacific...

Disaster Risk Assessment Tools and Applications

Better Information Smarter Investments

2012 Pacific GIS&RS ConferenceFIJI

Pacific disaster risk assessment– Probabilistic

assessment of major perils

– Pacific Risk Information System

– Risk based framework to direct resources of countries and development partners

Pacific disaster risk financing solutions– Fiscal risk exposure– Financial disaster risk

management– Regional risk pooling 3

Main Outputs

PARTNERS BASED IN US, JP, NZ, FJ

PACIFIC RISK INFORMATION

SYSTEM

Satellite imagery

Administrative Boundaries

Population Census

Agricultural Census

Surface Geology Topographic maps Surface soil Bathymetry

Geodetic and Fault Data Infrastructure References

Risk Assessment

EventGeneration

ExposureInformation

DamageEstimation

LossCalculation

IntensityCalculation

Social and economic losses

Hazard

Vulnerability

Exposure

Risk – monetary loss and casualties

Perils Modeled

Earthquake

Ground Shaking

Tsunami Wave

Tropical Cyclone

Wind

Flood from Precipitation

Flood from Storm Surge

Hazard Maps: Applications for Planners100 yr mean return period: wind speed,

ground acceleration with ~40% chances to be exceeded in 50years

Severe damage to buildings, infrastructure and crops with large consequent economic damage

People

2010 projections based on national census information and PopGIS

A number of countries have conducted or preparing for a national census

Building Inventory

3.5m attributed buildings in the Pacific

Major Infrastructure

Tongatapu

Eua

Ha'apai

Vava'u

174° W175° W

16

° S

17

° S

18

° S

19

° S

20

° S

21

° S

Ha'apai

Tongatapu & Eua

Vava'u

Tonga

Tongatapu

Eua

0 4 82

Kilometers

0 4 82

Kilometers 0 4 82

Kilometers

0 4 82

Kilometers

Nuku'alofa0 100 20050

Kilometers

Total Average Annual Loss(million USD)

0 - 0.1

0.1 - 0.2

0.2 - 0.3

0.3 - 0.4

0.4 - 0.5

0.5 - 1

1 - 1.5

1.5 - 2.5

Tongatapu

Eua

Ha'apai

Vava'u

174° W175° W

16

° S

17

° S

18

° S

19

° S

20

° S

21

° S

Ha'apai

Tongatapu & Eua

Vava'u

Tonga

Tongatapu

Eua

0 4 82

Kilometers

0 4 82

Kilometers 0 4 82

Kilometers

0 4 82

Kilometers

Nuku'alofa0 100 20050

Kilometers

AAL / Asset Value

0% - 0.5%

0.5% - 0.6%

0.6% - 0.7%

0.7% - 0.8%

0.8% - 1%

1% - 1.5%

1.5% - 2%

2% - 3%

Country risk profiles -Solomon Islands

PACIFIC RISK INFORMATION

SYSTEM

Integration of Climate Change projections

Urban Planning and Infrastructure Design

Professional and Institutional

Capacity Development

Rapid Disaster Impact Estimation

Macroeconomic Planning & Disaster

Risk Financing

APPLICATIONS

Pacific Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program

• Objective– Reduce financial vulnerability of PICs to disasters by improving their

financial response capacity while protecting their long term fiscal balance.– Provide immediate liquidity in the aftermath of a disaster

• Provides coverage against tropical cyclones and/or earthquakes.• Covers disruption to the provision of central government services from major

disasters • The policy is NOT designed to cover the government against all disaster losses.• Enhanced if it is part of an integrated disaster risk financing strategy including,

for example, domestic reserves.

Post-Disaster Real Time Loss Assessment - Tropical Cyclones and Earthquakes

• CAT models do not typically use any direct field observation of damage, loss, or disaster intensity

• The accuracy of the loss estimates improves if field observations are taken into account

• Damage and loss assessments

Air Worldwide - Confidential

Pre-disaster Loss Assessment• Feasibility study to develop a

system that, in real time, forecasts the impact of tropical cyclones as they build

• AIR has extensive experience in such systems in the Atlantic Ocean in the North Pacific Ocean for certain countries

• Such systems are feasible but their application to the region of the PICs needs to be studied further

Air Worldwide - Confidential

How does CC affect TCs?Climate projections

CSIRO

TC wind hazard risk modelling

GA

Catastrophe loss modelling

AIR - PCRAFI

Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program

Assess potential future tropical cyclone risk to critical assets in Pacific island countries with climate change. Outcome:1. understand the changing nature of tropical cyclone risk to

infrastructure assets2. consider the future implications in terms of loss and

damage3. assess the effectiveness of current planning and design

standards against future needs

Anticipated Outputs1. Integrated climate and disaster risk screening tools for planning are

operational2. Integrated tools for mainstreaming disaster and climate risks into

development planning are shared3. Pacific DMC planners apply newly acquired climate and disaster risk

mainstreaming skillsCountries: Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Is, Tonga, VanuatuTimeframe: 2 years Partners: SOPAC/ADB/WB/UNHABITAT/DCCEE

Risk Resilience in Urban Development

GEONODE DEVELOPMENT

Outcomes: Pacific Disaster Managers

• National capacities and ownership • Communication, awareness and understanding of the

applications: Tools to support decision making• Improve current models & expand to include other hazards• Data maintenance • Integrate the application of the Pacific Risk Information in

informing national DRM interventions • Improve coordination between donors and development

partners• Custodianship and data sharing