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Dilip Ratha and Hans Timmer
April 19, 2013Development Prospects GroupWorld BankWashington, D.C.
Outlook for Migration and Remittances 2013-15
Key messages on outlook
Remittance continue to grow; developing received $401 bn in 2012 ; expect $513 bn by 2015.
Remittance prices are not falling anymore, particularly in low volume corridors where remittance is more important.
Migration needs to feature in Post-MDGs
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011e
2013f2015f
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700 $ billions
Remittances to developing countries to reach $401 bn in 2012
Source: Development Prospects Group, World Bank
India
China
Philippin
es
Mex
ico
Niger
ia
Egypt
Bangla
desh
Pakis
tan
Vietn
am
Leban
on
69
60
24 23 21 2114 14
10 7
Top remittance recipients in 2012
$ million, 2012e as % of GDP, 2011
Tajik
ista
n
Liber
ia
Kyrgyz
Rep
ublic
Lesoth
o
Mold
ova
Nepal
Samoa
Haiti
Leban
on
Kosovo
47
31 2927
23 22 21 2118 18
Remittance flows to developing countries
$ billion 2010 2011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f
Developing countries 341 380 401 427 468 515 East Asia and Pacific 95 106 109 117 130 145 Europe and Central Asia 37 41 40 43 47 52 Latin America and Caribbean 58 62 62 67 73 81 Middle-East and North Africa 41 43 49 52 55 58 South Asia 83 97 109 117 127 140 Sub-Saharan Africa 29 30 31 33 36 39
Growth rate
Developing countries 8.0% 11.5% 5.3% 6.7% 9.5% 10.2% East Asia and Pacific 10.9% 12.3% 2.5% 7.1% 11.2% 11.7%
Europe and Central Asia -0.1% 13.5% -3.9% 6.9% 10.5% 11.4% Latin America and Caribbean 0.9% 7.3% 0.9% 7.1% 10.0% 10.5% Middle-East and North Africa 20.9% 6.1% 14.3% 5.1% 5.7% 6.3%
South Asia 9.8% 17.6% 12.3% 6.9% 9.1% 10.0% Sub-Saharan Africa 4.0% 4.9% 1.6% 5.6% 8.6% 8.8%
Remittance growth moderates in 2012 in all regions, except MENA
2009
2010
2011
e20
12f
2013
f
2014
f
2015
f-20%
0%
20%
40%East Asia and PacificEurope and Central AsiaLatin America and CaribbeanMiddle-East and North AfricaSouth AsiaSub-Saharan Africa
Percent
Source: Development Prospect Group, the World Bank
Russia: Oil prices continue to provide a cushion for remittances outflows from Russia
2005 Q3
2006 Q1
2006 Q3
2007 Q1
2007 Q3
2008 Q1
2008 Q3
2009 Q1
2009 Q3
2010 Q1
2010 Q3
2011 Q1
2011 Q3
2012 Q1
2012 Q3
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
$ billions
Remittance outflows from Russia (left scale)
Crude oil price(right scale)
$/barrel
Source: IMF Balance of Payments and Development Prospects Group, World Bank.
In the US, employment is recovering faster for migrant workers than for natives*
Source: Current Population Survey
*3-month moving averages
Jul-08Nov-08
Mar-09Jul-09
Nov-09Mar-10
Jul-10Nov-10
Mar-11Jul-11
Nov-11Mar-12
Jul-12Nov-12
Mar-13
116
118
120
122
124
21
22
23
24
millionsmillions
Natives (left scale)
Migrants (right scale)
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
183 183
131
55
2 6
264
300
235
70
5
Source: US Citizenship and Immigration Services.
Demand for skilled migrant workers is picking up in the US
Number of Days to reach H1-B visa cap
Migration is important for post 2015 development agenda
Migration affects development; and development affects migration.
Migrants, like those in the informal sector, should be included in MDG discussions
How might migration be featured in the Post-2015 Agenda?
• Reduce cost of migrating
• Protect the rights and safety of migrants
• Leverage migration for financing development
Remittance price is falling, but not as much in low volume corridors where remittance is more important
2008 Q3 2009Q3 2010
Q3 2011Q3 2012
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Global Average
Global Weighted average
Cost of sending $200
Source: World Bank Remittance Prices Worldwide database
24
5 5 5 6
9
12
1416
Cost of sending $200 (%)
Proposed US immigration reforms can impact remittance flows to developing countries Proposals:
― Path to citizenship for unauthorized immigrants
― Employment verifications and increased border security
― Improving the process to admit future workers, including unskilled ones.
Increases remittance flows in the long run by improving migrants employment opportunity and access to finance.
Global Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Development (KNOMAD)
An open, inclusive, multidisciplinary knowledge partnership
To generate a menu of policy choices, based on analytical evidence and quality control through peer-review
A global public good that is also a learning process
Key Objectives of KNOMAD
generating and synthesizing knowledge on migration issues
generating a menu of policy choices based on multidisciplinary knowledge and evidence
providing technical assistance and capacity building to sending and receiving countries
Structure
Twelve thematic working groups and four cross-cutting themes
Supported by a small secretariat
Guided by an Advisory Committee
Contractual as well as voluntary contributions
Multi-donor trust fund at the World Bank
Thematic Working Groups
Data
High-skilled labor
migration
Lower-skilled labor migration
Integration issues in host communities
Policy and institution
al coherence
Migrant rights and
social aspects
Demography and
migration
Remittances
Mobilizing other
diaspora resources
Environmental change and migration
Internal migration
Migration and
security
Cross-cutting themes
Monitoring and Impact Evaluation
Capacity Building
Gender
Public perception and communication
Partnerships
International and regional agencies
Universities and research institutions
Think tanks
International Initiatives
Networks
Civil Society
Outputs
A menu of policy choices
Analytical research products
Policy briefs
Operational toolkits, fact books
Web-based anthologies, archives, blogs
A few pilot projects and capacity building activities
Timeline: Implementation begins today
Has been in inception phase (ends in April 2013)
Implementation phase (May 2013-Dec 2017)
Evaluation – 2016
Pilot projects – 2016-17
Exit strategy
Year 1: Some Activities
Stocktaking of data and literature to identify gaps
Organizing workshops and meetings
Identifying experts and peer reviewers
Developing a website and portal that is easy to use and accessible
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