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25 JUNE 2012
DEVELOPMENTS
IN THE
WEST PHILIPPINE SEA
PH 200M
EEZ AND
CONTINENTAL
SHELF
I. BAJO DE MASINLOC (SCARBOROUGH SHOAL)
Spratlys Group
Of Islands
Scarborough
Shoal
FOR ILLUSTRATION
PURPOSES ONLY
PH BASELINES
(RA 9522)
PH 200M
EEZ AND
CONTINENTAL
SHELF
BAJO DE
MASINLOC
Kalayaan Island
Group (KIG)
Scarborough
Shoal
FOR ILLUSTRATION
PURPOSES ONLY
PH BASELINES
(RA 9522) Palauig
Hainan
Dao
Parola Is. **
Shibeshanjiao
*Relative Distance source: DENR-
NAMRIA in Figure 6, Foreign Service
Institute, “Primer on the South China
Sea”. Manila, 1999
** Nearest Distance to KIG
Amid the Bajo de Masinloc stand-off,
several myths were generated:
• Tension in the South China Sea was
allegedly caused by Philippine
articulation (Philippine policy shift:
Arroyo vs. Aquino Administration)
•Chinese aggressive policy in the WPS
(SCS) is caused by the transition in
Chinese leadership
II. MYTHS ON THE WPS (SCS) TENSION
• The problem in the WPS (SCS) is not
the tension per se. The tension is
caused by something. Therefore, the
source which causes the tension is the
real problem in the WPS (SCS)
• The source of the tension is not the
articulation of the Philippines.
• The Philippines is articulating because
it feels the tension, and that tension is
being brought right into its doorstep.
II. MYTHS ON THE WPS (SCS) TENSION
PH
BSL
PH200M
III. CAUSE OF TENSION : CHINA’S CREEPING ASSERTION
Reed
Bank
Wood
Bank
Southern
Bank
Amy Douglas
Bank
FOR ILLUSTRATION
PURPOSES ONLY
CHIGUA REEF
LEN DAO REEF
• Prior to 1995, China was
in CHIGUA & LEN DAO
REEF, which is about
185M from Palawan
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.001994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
US ($B) China Military expenditure in constant 2010 US$B. 1994-[2012]
www.sipri.org
20.31
PH
BSL
PH200M
III. CAUSE OF TENSION : CHINA’S CREEPING ASSERTION
Reed
Bank
Wood
Bank
Southern
Bank
Amy Douglas
Bank
PANGANIBAN REEF
FOR ILLUSTRATION
PURPOSES ONLY
China Occupies Panganiban/
Mischief Reef
1995
• By 1995-98, China was in
PANGANIBAN REEF,
about 130M from Palawan
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.001994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
US ($B)
www.sipri.org
China Military expenditure in constant 2010 US$B. 1994-[2012]
20.88
PH
BSL
PH200M
III. CAUSE OF TENSION : CHINA’S CREEPING ASSERTION
Wood
Bank Southern
Bank
Amy Douglas
Bank
FOR ILLUSTRATION
PURPOSES ONLY
REED
BANK
• By 2010, China was
asserting sovereignty
over RECTO BANK,
about 85M from Palawan
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.001994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
US ($B)
www.sipri.org
China Military expenditure in constant 2010 US$B. 1994-[2012]
87.73
PH
BSL
PH200M
Reed
Bank
Wood
Bank
Southern
Bank
Amy Douglas
Bank
III. CAUSE OF TENSION :CHINA’S CREEPING ASSERTION
FOR ILLUSTRATION
PURPOSES ONLY
A3
A4
• By 2011, China was on
AREAS 3 & 4, about 30 &
60M, respectively, from
Palawan
China urges Philippines to
cancel plan to bid out Area3
& Area 4
04 Jul 2011
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.001994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
US ($B)
www.sipri.org
China Military expenditure in constant 2010 US$B. 1994-[2012]
129.27
PH
BSL
PH200M
Reed
Bank
Wood
Bank
Southern
Bank
Amy Douglas
Bank
III. CAUSE OF TENSION : CHINA’S CREEPING ASSERTION
FOR ILLUSTRATION
PURPOSES ONLY
• By 2012, China was
sighted in
SCARBOROUGH SHOAL,
124M from Zambales
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.001994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
US ($B)
www.sipri.org
China Military expenditure in constant 2010 US$B. 1994-[2012]
~143
Philippines-China Stand-off in
Bajo de Masinloc
April 2012
III. 2011 CHINA FISHING BAN (QUADRANT 1)
WEST
PHILIPPINE
SEA 12N Lat Line
Scarborough
Shoal
Spratlys
Group of
Islands
Reed
Bank
113E Long Line
PACIFIC
OCEAN
III. 2012 CHINA FISHING BAN (QUADRANT 1 + QUADRANT 2)
WEST
PHILIPPINE
SEA
Lat 23-09-42.60
Long 117-31-37.40
Lat 21-54-15.00
Long 120-50-43.00
Near S of Hengchun (Taiwan)
Near SW of Shantou, Guangdong (China)
Scarborough
Shoal
Spratlys
Group of
Islands
Reed
Bank
12N Lat Line
PACIFIC
OCEAN
III. EXPANDED CHINA FISHING BAN? (Q1 & Q2) + (Q3 & Q4)?
WEST
PHILIPPINE
SEA
Lat 23-09-42.60
Long 117-31-37.40
Lat 21-54-15.00
Long 120-50-43.00
Near S of Hengchun (Taiwan)
Near SW of Shantou, Guangdong (China)
Scarborough
Shoal
Spratlys
Group of
Islands
Reed
Bank
12N Lat Line
PACIFIC
OCEAN
III. PASSAGE THROUGH PHILIPPINE WATERS?
WEST
PHILIPPINE
SEA
Lat 23-09-42.60
Long 117-31-37.40
Lat 21-54-15.00
Long 120-50-43.00
Near S of Hengchun (Taiwan)
Near SW of Shantou, Guangdong (China)
Scarborough
Shoal
Spratlys
Group of
Islands
Reed
Bank
PACIFIC
OCEAN
PHILIPPINES
INDONESIA
CHINA
TAIWAN
PALAU
JAPAN
INDONESIA
VIETNAM
MALAYSIA
BRUNEI
IV. CHINA STRATEGY: WATER GAIN USING 9-DASH LINE
HISTORICAL CLAIM ON
THE 9-DASH LINE
Scarborough
Shoal
Spratlys
Group of Islands
Reed
Bank
PHILIPPINES
INDONESIA
CHINA
TAIWAN
PALAU
JAPAN
INDONESIA
VIETNAM
MALAYSIA
BRUNEI
IV. CHINA STRATEGY: FULL 200M EEZ IN SCS FEATURES
REED BANK AS PART OF
THE ADJACENT WATERS
OF NANSHA ISLANDS
Scarborough
Shoal
Spratlys
Group of Islands
200M PROJECTED ON
SCARBOROUGH SHOAL
Reed
Bank
PHILIPPINES
INDONESIA
CHINA
TAIWAN
PALAU
JAPAN
INDONESIA
VIETNAM
MALAYSIA
BRUNEI
Scarborough
Shoal
Spratlys
Group of Islands
Reed
Bank
V. CONCLUSION – SCENARIO 1
PHILIPPINES
INDONESIA
CHINA
TAIWAN
PALAU
JAPAN
INDONESIA
VIETNAM
MALAYSIA
BRUNEI
Scarborough
Shoal
Spratlys
Group of Islands
Reed
Bank
V. CONCLUSION – SCENARIO 2
CHINESE
LAKE
PHILIPPINES
INDONESIA
CHINA
TAIWAN
PALAU
JAPAN
INDONESIA
VIETNAM
MALAYSIA
BRUNEI
Scarborough
Shoal
Spratlys
Group of Islands
Reed
Bank
V. CONCLUSION – SCENARIO 3
PHILIPPINES
INDONESIA
CHINA
TAIWAN
PALAU
JAPAN
INDONESIA
VIETNAM
MALAYSIA
BRUNEI
Scarborough
Shoal
Spratlys
Group of Islands
Reed
Bank
V. CONCLUSION – SCENARIO 3
25 JUNE 2012
DEVELOPMENTS
IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA
END OF PRESENTATION
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