Developing Human System Modules for Regional Climate Models

Developing Human System Modules for Regional

Climate ModelsJessie Cherry

IARC/INE/ARSC@UAFPeter Larsen

GSPP/LBNL@UC-Berkeley

Presentation Outline

• “Old school” approach to the study of Human Dimensions (HD) of Climate Change;

• Shortcomings with the “old school” approach;

• Some examples of HD modeling;

• Direct integration of HD into regional climate modeling (i.e., “new school”);

• Implementation potential for particular sectors

General Climate-related Modeling Approaches

Source: IPCC, 2007

Past Treatment of Human Dimensions• Second (or third-order) modeling runs;

• Limited use of downscaled physical projections;

• Few examples of model comparison/testing platforms and input/output sensitivity analyses;

• Weighted index, Delphi, and/or subjective approaches are often employed; and

• Stakeholder feedback often occurs later on in the development process, if at all.

Examples of Modeling HD: Alaska

Climate Projections

NCARUAF GI

Import_Wx_UAF_NCAR_10_10_06.sas

$

Depreciator_10_10_06b.sas

Graphs Infrastructure Type Replacement Cost Units Baseline Useful Life (years)Agriculture N/A N/A N/AAirport 5,664,812$ Whole 10Bridges 10,000$ Per foot 40Courts 16,150,618$ Whole 40Defense 305,441$ Whole 40Emergency Services 467,110$ Whole 20Energy 31,570$ Whole 30Grid 100,000$ Per mile 15Harbor 162,050$ Whole 30Hospital 44,772,750$ Whole 40Law Enforcement 3,917,245$ Whole 30Misc. Building (govt) 1,030,578$ Whole 30Misc. Building (health) 1,631,781$ Whole 30Pipeline 32,225,000$ Per mile 30Railroad 2,795,717$ Per mile 30Roads 3,000,000$ Per mile 10School 2,486,167$ Whole 40Sewer 30,000,000$ Whole 20Telecommunications 299,576$ Whole 10Telephone Line 50,000$ Per mile 15Water 5,000,000$ Whole 20

Tables

Depr.Matrix

Denali

DRM

DCCED

DNR

Others

APID

Infrastructure_DB_09_28_06.sas

Climate Projections

NCARUAF GI

Import_Wx_UAF_NCAR_10_10_06.sas

Climate Projections

NCARNCARUAF GIUAF GI

Import_Wx_UAF_NCAR_10_10_06.sas

$

Depreciator_10_10_06b.sas

$$

Depreciator_10_10_06b.sas

Graphs Infrastructure Type Replacement Cost Units Baseline Useful Life (years)Agriculture N/A N/A N/AAirport 5,664,812$ Whole 10Bridges 10,000$ Per foot 40Courts 16,150,618$ Whole 40Defense 305,441$ Whole 40Emergency Services 467,110$ Whole 20Energy 31,570$ Whole 30Grid 100,000$ Per mile 15Harbor 162,050$ Whole 30Hospital 44,772,750$ Whole 40Law Enforcement 3,917,245$ Whole 30Misc. Building (govt) 1,030,578$ Whole 30Misc. Building (health) 1,631,781$ Whole 30Pipeline 32,225,000$ Per mile 30Railroad 2,795,717$ Per mile 30Roads 3,000,000$ Per mile 10School 2,486,167$ Whole 40Sewer 30,000,000$ Whole 20Telecommunications 299,576$ Whole 10Telephone Line 50,000$ Per mile 15Water 5,000,000$ Whole 20

Tables

Infrastructure Type Replacement Cost Units Baseline Useful Life (years)Agriculture N/A N/A N/AAirport 5,664,812$ Whole 10Bridges 10,000$ Per foot 40Courts 16,150,618$ Whole 40Defense 305,441$ Whole 40Emergency Services 467,110$ Whole 20Energy 31,570$ Whole 30Grid 100,000$ Per mile 15Harbor 162,050$ Whole 30Hospital 44,772,750$ Whole 40Law Enforcement 3,917,245$ Whole 30Misc. Building (govt) 1,030,578$ Whole 30Misc. Building (health) 1,631,781$ Whole 30Pipeline 32,225,000$ Per mile 30Railroad 2,795,717$ Per mile 30Roads 3,000,000$ Per mile 10School 2,486,167$ Whole 40Sewer 30,000,000$ Whole 20Telecommunications 299,576$ Whole 10Telephone Line 50,000$ Per mile 15Water 5,000,000$ Whole 20

Tables

Depr.MatrixDepr.Matrix

Denali

DRM

DCCED

DNR

Others

APID

Infrastructure_DB_09_28_06.sas

Denali

DRM

DCCED

DNR

Others

APID

Infrastructure_DB_09_28_06.sas

Denali

DRM

DCCED

DNR

Others

APID

Infrastructure_DB_09_28_06.sas

DenaliDenali

DRMDRM

DCCEDDCCED

DNR

OthersOthers

APID

Infrastructure_DB_09_28_06.sas

HD Project: “Estimating Risk to Alaska Public Infrastructure from Climate Change” (Larsen et al, 2008)

Examples of Modeling HD: Alaska

0ºc/32º F

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) orDepreciation Rate (lifespan)

$* Annual Average Temp.

$1

$2

$3$4

27º F 0ºc/32º F

Annual Maintenance Cost ($) orDepreciation Rate (lifespan)

$* Annual Average Temp.

$1

$2

$3$4

27º F

Examples of Modeling HD: California

HD Project:

“Estimating Risk to California Energy Infrastructure from Climate Change” (Sathaye et al, 2009)

Examples of Modeling HD: California

The “old school” de-coupled HD approach:

• creates a strong disconnect between the physical modeling and the climate impacts communities;

• occasionally ignores stakeholder needs for timely policy and decision making;

• often misses important feedbacks between human agents and the climate system; and

• makes it difficult to compare and test alternative modeling techniques.

Past/Current HD Modeling Concerns

• Resource Development• Hazard Response• Freshwater Supply• Renewable Energy (wind, hydro, geothermal)• Commercial and Sport Fishing/Hunting• Public and Private Infrastructure• Tourism• Subsistence Harvest• Marine Transport• Human Health

Some Arctic Human Dimensions….

1. Develop Human System Modules directly into the Arctic System Modeling platform;

2. Make these modules portable and transparent between different regional models;

3. Encourage international collaboration;

4. Focus on producing multiple socioeconomic impact measures; and

5. Facilitate model testing, scenario development, stakeholder feedback, etc.

A “New School” HD Modeling Proposal….

• Need not occur at each model time step (e.g., hours vs. planning decades);

• One or two-way coupling may be appropriate depending on the system (e.g., GHG emissions); and

• Socioeconomic data collection and dissemination will need to be substantially improved;

•Quantifying coupled model uncertainty is very important, but difficult to communicate.

Some Thoughts on Climate/HD Model Interactions

Some Thoughts on Communicating Uncertainty in HD Impacts…

Source: Larsen et al (2008)

Three different AOGCMs Monte-carlo Simulation (varied inputs)

More Thoughts on Uncertainty in HD Impact Estimates…

Harvard Economics Professor Martin Weitzman noted in a seminal 2008 paper that fat-tailed structural uncertainty about climate change, coupled with a lack of information about high-temperature damages, can potentially outweigh the influence of discounting in a cost-benefit analysis framework.

• Training and supporting interdisciplinary researchers may be the biggest challenge;

• Pan-Arctic data collection and management is another major challenge;

• Stakeholder engagement is time-consuming and expensive;

• Some research disciplines are further along in the evolution of systems modeling; and

• User-friendly “decision support tools” will need to be developed in close collaboration with stakeholders.

What are the Challenges?

• There are (some) appropriate existing regional HD models;

• We have the computing resources;

• We can attempt to minimize miscommunications between the physical and social scientists across the Arctic;

• It’s interesting and policy-relevant work at the frontiers of research!!!

Why include HD modules directly into an ASM?

Questions?

Additional Information

International Arctic Research Center at UAF: www.iarc.uaf.edu

Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP): www.uaf.edu/accap/

State of Alaska Climate Change Materials: www.climatechange.alaska.gov

E.O. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory: www.lbl.gov

Goldman School of Public Policy: www.gspp.berkeley.edu

Note: This presentation includes personal views of Peter Larsen.

Climate Change Planning

Walsh & Chapman:

PRISM downscaled multi-model projections of temperature and precipitation for AK under various scenarios of Greenhouse Gas emissions

Integrated Assessment

Definition: any model which combines scientific and socio-economic aspects of climate change primarily for the purpose of assessing policy options for climate change control (Kelly & Kolstad, 1998)

Integrated Assessment Modeling

McGuffie & Henderson-Sellers, 2005

Integrated Assessment Models

McGuffie & Henderson-Sellers, 2005

Example of Human System Module

Cherry

Goal is to be model independent; work with CCSM and other models/ couplers

Communicating uncertainty

New Scientific Methodology?

Funtowicz & Ravetz, in Ecological Economics, 1991

Arctic human dimensions

• Oil and Gas Module (spill transport)• Rural Resilience (wind power potential)• Coastal Erosion (evolving coastline)• Freshwater (hydropower, water supply)• Marine Fisheries (Bering ecosystem)• Marine Transport (ice cover trajectories)

Ammonium

Euphausiids

Neocalanus

SmallPhytoplankton

Detritus

Smallmicrozooplankton

Largemicrozooplankton

Nitrate

LargePhytoplankton

Pseudocalanus

Iron

14 component ModelNPZD-Benthos

PredationLosses

BenthosBenthicInfauna

Benthic Detritus

BSIERPLower Trophic Level

Ecosystem Model

BSIERPFEAST Higher trophic

level model

NPZ-B-DLower trophic

level

ROMSPhysical

Oceanography

Economic/ecological model

Climate scenarios

BSIERP Vertically Integrated models

Nest

ed m

odel

sBEST

Infrastructure

Impact of Climate Change on Infrastructure study done for Alaska by Peter Larsen and collaborators

Flow Chart of Model Processes

Climate Projections

NCARUAF GI

Import_Wx_UAF_NCAR_10_10_06.sas

$

Depreciator_10_10_06b.sas

Graphs Infrastructure Type Replacement Cost Units Baseline Useful Life (years)Agriculture N/A N/A N/AAirport 5,664,812$ Whole 10Bridges 10,000$ Per foot 40Courts 16,150,618$ Whole 40Defense 305,441$ Whole 40Emergency Services 467,110$ Whole 20Energy 31,570$ Whole 30Grid 100,000$ Per mile 15Harbor 162,050$ Whole 30Hospital 44,772,750$ Whole 40Law Enforcement 3,917,245$ Whole 30Misc. Building (govt) 1,030,578$ Whole 30Misc. Building (health) 1,631,781$ Whole 30Pipeline 32,225,000$ Per mile 30Railroad 2,795,717$ Per mile 30Roads 3,000,000$ Per mile 10School 2,486,167$ Whole 40Sewer 30,000,000$ Whole 20Telecommunications 299,576$ Whole 10Telephone Line 50,000$ Per mile 15Water 5,000,000$ Whole 20

Tables

Depr.Matrix

Denali

DRM

DCCED

DNR

Others

APID

Infrastructure_DB_09_28_06.sas

ISER Public Infrastructure Study

Wind Farm Parameterization for WRFAdams & Keith

Modification of the MYJ PBL scheme

Similar work being done commercially by 3TIER, AER, others

MMS-WRF winds 1

MMS-WRF winds 2

MMS-WRF winds 3

MMS-WRF winds 4

Hydropower AEAAEA Energy Atlas, 2007

Ship track

https://rsgis.crrel.usace.army.mil/aedis/

Example of Climate-Related Decision Support