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18th Annual EPA Emission Inventory Conference Baltimore, MD
Developing Emissions for
Multi-polluant Air Quality Modeling
in the Middle EastZachariah Adelman, Limei Ran, MohammadOmary, Uma ShankarCenter for Environmental Modeling for Policy Development
University of North Carolina Institute for the Environment
David StreetsArgonne National Laboratory
Argonne, IL
Presented at the 18th International Emission Inventory Conference
April 14-16, 2009 Baltimore, MD
18th Annual EPA Emission Inventory Conference Baltimore, MD
Background
• Middle East
significant global
source of ozone
• Large and frequent
dust events
• Few regional-scale
modeling studies
• UAE burden of
disease assessment
18th Annual EPA Emission Inventory Conference Baltimore, MD
Objective
• Develop emissions to support multi-pollutantCMAQ simulations of air quality in the MiddleEast– Multi-pollutant: ozone, 1º and 2º PM, SOA, acid
deposition, air toxics, mercury, chlorine, sea salt
– Include anthropogenic and natural sources ofemissions
– Appropriate for regional-to-urban spatial scales
– 2007/08 activities and magnitudes
– Vertically resolved emissions
– Source-specific temporal and chemical distributions
18th Annual EPA Emission Inventory Conference Baltimore, MD
Approach
• Middle East EmissionsModeling Platform (ME-EMP) with SMOKEv2.4
• Inventories collected frommultiple global/regional/local sources
• Spatial distribution of pre-gridded and country-totalinventories
• Vertical allocation of“area” inventories
• Temporal and chemicalallocation using US andEuropean data
UAE 36-km and 12-km CMAQ
modeling grids
36-km
12-km
18th Annual EPA Emission Inventory Conference Baltimore, MD
ME-EMP Inventories
AMAPMercury
SDustWindblown Dust
UD-ShipCommercialShipping
GFEDv2Biomass Burning
MEGANBiogenic
NILUN/ANone1None1None1Stationary Point
CIRCECIRCECIRCECIRCE+EDGAR
EMEPNonroad Mobile
CIRCECIRCECIRCECIRCE+EDGAR
EMEPOnroad Mobile
CIRCECIRCECIRCECIRCE+EDGAR
EMEPStationary Area
UAEEurasiaMiddle EastAfricaEuropeSector
1 Sources typically treated as point sources contained in stationary area inventory
18th Annual EPA Emission Inventory Conference Baltimore, MD
Spatial Allocation
• Pre-gridded Inventories
– Convert ASCII inventories to netCDF
– I/O API MTXCALC linear interp. to model grids
• Country-total inventories
– Global GIS DB, CIESIN, MEGAN, and UAE
Shapefiles
– Spatial Allocator surrogates for the model grids
– Surrogate assignments by sector descriptions
18th Annual EPA Emission Inventory Conference Baltimore, MD
Spatial Surrogates
• Population
• Roads
• 0.5*Roads+0.5*Pop.
• UAE Roads
• 0.5*UAE Roads+0.5*Pop.
• Crops
• Airports
• Mineral Extraction
• Mines
• Industrial
• Railroads
• Fuel Storage Tanks
• Energy Utilities
• Unpaved Roads
• Nonroad Mobile
• 0.75*Industrial+0.25*Pop.
• Energy Industry
• Heavy Industry
• Water Utilities
• Waste
18th Annual EPA Emission Inventory Conference Baltimore, MD
Vertical Profiles
• EMEP profiles for
anthropogenic sources
– Energy combustion
– Non-industrial
combustion
– Manufacturing
combustion
– Production processes
– Fossil fuel extraction
– Waste
• Prototype profiles for
biomass burning
sources
– 0.25%: 0-50m
– 0.75%: 50-2000m
18th Annual EPA Emission Inventory Conference Baltimore, MD
Temporal and Chemical Distributions
• EMEP and USEPA temporal and CB05 speciation profiles
• AMAP speciation for Hg
• SPECIATE mass-fractions for benzene, acetaldehyde,
and formaldehyde added to standard CB05 profiles
• Weekday/weekend profiles modified for domain regions
– Europe: Saturday/Sunday weekend
– UAE: Friday/Saturday weekend
– Africa, Middle East, Eurasia: Thursday/Friday weekend
• UAE holidays
18th Annual EPA Emission Inventory Conference Baltimore, MD
Results
• All emissions results arepreliminary and will beevaluated with completion ofCMAQ simulations
• Good agreement with theresults of global-scalemodeling studies (wide-range)
• Qualitative evaluationsagainst satellite observationsshow strengths andweaknesses in results
18th Annual EPA Emission Inventory Conference Baltimore, MD
ResultsArea (Res+Solv)
Area (Waste)
Area (Manuf)
Area (Energy)
Agriculture
Onroad
Nonroad
Shipping
Point
Biogenic
Biomass Burning
Windblown Dust
Europe (EMEP)
NH3 POC
VOCNOx SO2
CO
18th Annual EPA Emission Inventory Conference Baltimore, MD
Results
• Monthly total NO2 emissions (left)
• Monthly average SCIAMACHY NO2 (right)
18th Annual EPA Emission Inventory Conference Baltimore, MD
Results
• Monthly total isoprene emissions (left)
• Monthly average OMI HCHO (right)
18th Annual EPA Emission Inventory Conference Baltimore, MD
Results
• Monthly total PMC+POC emissions (left)
• Monthly average OMI UV AI (right)
18th Annual EPA Emission Inventory Conference Baltimore, MD
ResultsDaily average OMI UV AI, May 9-11, 2007
May 16,
2007
SMOKE
WBD and
OMI UV AI
18th Annual EPA Emission Inventory Conference Baltimore, MD
Conclusions and Future Work
• ME-EMP provides a prototype multi-pollutant emissionsframework for domains outside of North America
• Improvements can be made by augmentation with localdata
• Full evaluation of the emissions will require completion ofCMAQ simulations and diagnostic evaluations
• Future iterations of the ME-EMP will include corrections,replacements, and additions
• On the radar:– Vertically resolved lightning NOx emissions
– Alternative windblown dust emissions
– Persian Gulf oil and gas inventories
– Local temporal and chemical speciation data
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