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Developing a Framework for Modeling and Simulating Aedes aegypti and Dengue Fever Dynamics. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Developing a Framework for Modeling and Simulating Aedes
aegypti and Dengue Fever Dynamics
Tiago Lima (UFOP), Tiago Carneiro (UFOP), Raquel Lana (Fiocruz), Cláudia Codeço (Fiocruz), Raian Maretto (INPE), Liliam Medeiros (UNESP), Leandro Silva (UFOP), Leonardo Santos (INPE), Isabel Reis (Fiocruz), Flávio Coelho
(FGV), Antonio Miguel Monteiro (INPE)
Controlling dengue fever and its vector is a public health challenge
Disease presents a complex temporal-spatial dynamic
- Meteorological variables interfere in developmental stages of the vector
- Social and demographic aspects could help to increase dengue incidence
- unplanned urbanization
- precariousness of garbage collection and water supply
Introduction
Several models have being developed aiming to
- understand the dynamics of vetor population and disease transmission
- predict epidemic outbreaks
- analyze and evaluate the impact of control strategies
- but they are not easily applicable to other contexts and studies
There are some generic frameworks focusing on diseases spread on global scale
we need solutions with focus on dengue and targeting local dynamics at intra-urban scales
Introduction
A tool for helping the designing of site-specific and population-specific control strategies for dengue
To reach this goal, a framework should provide- integration with GIS- a collection of built in models- a modeling language that supports both population models and individual-based models- a friendly GUI for easy building and configuration- a flexible and extensible architecture to allow contribution from users
DengueME (Dengue Modeling Environment) frameworkan open source tool aiming to support modeling and simulation of spatio-temporal dynamics of Dengue fever and its vector
Objectives
Framework should provides services to support the development of models and evaluation of intervention scenarios applied to real case studies
support communication with geographical databases
enable development of multi-scale models and use of different paradigms
offer a common and easy to use language for model implementation
offer a basic library of built-in models which can be customized and combined to generate specific models
provide a friendly graphical user interface for creating, configuring and running built-in and user defined models
extensible - enable adding of new models to its library
DengueME Framework: requirements and design
DengueME Framework: architecture
TerraME - a software platform for environmental modeling and simulation
DengueME architecture: TerraME
Dynamics of dengue is governed by a complex interaction between humans, mosquitoes, viruses, on a heterogeneous landscape
Vector Modelspopulation dynamics of Aedes aegypti with differential equations modeling variation stock at each life stage under the influence of environmental carrying capacity and the climate
Host Modelsdemographic dynamic of the human population in the study areadifferential equations describing the stock of individuals or individual-based model
Transmission ModelsVirus transmission process depends on the amount of susceptible and infected (people or mosquitoes)
DengueME architecture: Models
Mobility ModelsDescribes the mobility and commutation of humans and vectors
spread of viruses and vectors is facilitated by the flow of individuals
from a no mobility or random mobility to a complex model based on real data
Landscape Class ModelsUrban landscape interferes in the dynamics of dengue transmission as it introduces
heterogeneity in the availability of breeding sites for Aedes aegypti
landscape component provides a landscape classification model to describes the space
from a homogeneous space to sophisticated techniques for segmentation and classification
DengueME architecture: Models
Potential end-users of DengueME are not experts in programming techiniques
reduce barriers related to using programming languages and facilitate the framework utilization
DengueME Visual Development Environment
provide services to help users to perform the required steps for developing models and defining scenarios
allows to configure built-in or imported models
helps to create scenarios through the selection and combination of sub-models and their parameterization
DengueME architecture: VDE
DengueME architecture: VDE
DengueME architecture: VDE
The work is under development
- design and implementation of framework
- build-in models- three vector models implemented and applied to
a case study
- a host and transmission models implemented and applied to a case study
- visual development environment
Results
Using DengueME to evaluate the impact of local interventions on dengue vector density
Results
Using DengueME to study epidemic scenarios
Results
Results
Results
Despite the success of mathematical models in explaining Aedes aegypti spatial dynamics and dengue transmission, there is still a need to stimulate their use to assist the planning of dengue control interventions
model reuse is still a challenge
models and tools can not require experience in programming or great expertise in modeling development, database management and model-data integration it is required to understand the model assumptions to correctly use them
DengueME framework
services for modeling and simulation dynamics of dengue in urban environments
a library of built in models
a visual development environment that provides friendly graphical user interface
an open and extensible architecture
Final remarks
developing and incorporating new models into the framework
enable addition of new models
Future works
Model.lua
Config.xml
Questions? Suggestions?
Acknowledgments
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