Determining Microcystis bloom trigger points in the Maumee and Sandusky ecosystems

Determining Microcystis bloom trigger points in the Maumee and Sandusky ecosystems

Joe Conroy1,2, Darren Bade3, Bill Edwards4, Doug Kane5, Theo Gover1, Kyla Hershey1, and David Culver1

1 – Dept. of EEOB, The Ohio State University, 2 – Current affiliation: Inland Fisheries Research Unit, DOW, ODNR, 3 – Dept. of Biol. Sci., Kent State University, 4 – Dept. of Biology, Niagara University, 5 – Nat. Sci. and Math. Division, Defiance College

Problem: Where & When do blooms start?

TimeTime

Sp

ace

Sp

ace

Late summerLate summerEarly springEarly spring

LakeLake

BaysBays

RiversRivers

TribsTribs

????

?? ?? ??

Roadmap

Part I: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Microcystis abundance

Part II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexity

Extensions: moving the problem upstream

Roadmap

Part IPart I: Determining bloom trigger points: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Microcystis abundance

Part II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexity

Extensions: moving the problem upstream

Methods: Sampling locations

Methods: Sampling locations

Methods: Data Collection

Methods: Data Collection

Field SamplingField Sampling

Methods: Data Collection

Field SamplingField Sampling

Laboratory AnalysisLaboratory Analysis

Roadmap

Part I: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Microcystis abundance

Part II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexity

Extensions: moving the problem upstream

Roadmap

Part IPart I: Determining bloom trigger points: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Results: quantifying Microcystis Microcystis abundanceabundance

Part II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexity

Extensions: moving the problem upstream

Results: Microcystis trigger points

Results: Microcystis trigger points

Results: Microcystis trigger points

Results: Microcystis trigger points

Results: Microcystis trigger points

1970 cyanobacterial biomass = 1 g m-3

April tributary Microcystis biomass = 0.00–0.85 g m-3

Only four samples without Microcystis!

Roadmap

Part I: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Microcystis abundance

Part II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexity

Extensions: moving the problem upstream

Roadmap

Part I: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Microcystis abundance

Part IIPart II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactionsMethods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexity

Extensions: moving the problem upstream

Transient social-ecological stability: the effects of invasive species and ecosystem restoration on nutrient management compromise in Lake Erie

Eric Roy1,2, Jay Martin1, Elena Irwin3, Joe Conroy4,5, and David Culver4

1 – Dept. of FABE, The Ohio State University, 2 – Current affiliation: Dept. of Oceanogr. & Coastal Sci., Louisiana State University, 3 – Dept. of Agr., Env., & Devel. Econ., The Ohio State University, 4 – Dept. of EEOB, The Ohio State University, 5 – Current affiliation: Inland Fisheries Research Unit, DOW, ODNR

Published in: Ecology & Society 15(1): article 20 2010.http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol15/iss1/art20/

Methods: Modeling interactions

Methods: Modeling interactions

Ecological ModelEcological Model Social ModelSocial Model

Methods: Manipulations

Model calibrated & validated for Sandusky Bay» Few dreissenid mussels in Sandusky Bay» Large historical wetland at river-bay confluence

1. Simulated expansion of dreissenids into the bay» Consumptive effect ( phytoplankton, clarity = benefits)

– Set MCF (Mussel Consumption Factor = 1.25)» Excretory effect ( PP, clarity = benefits)

– Set MEF (Mussel Excretory Factor > 1.00)

2. Simulated wetland restoration» Mitigating effect ( P-load, PP, clarity = benefits)

– Reduce P-load 12%

Roadmap

Part I: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Microcystis abundance

Part II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexity

Extensions: moving the problem upstream

Roadmap

Part I: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Microcystis abundance

Part IIPart II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexityResults: interpreting complexity

Extensions: moving the problem upstream

Results: Benefits through time

Results: Benefits through time

Results: Benefits through time

Results: Benefits through time

Results: Benefits through time

Results: Benefits through time

Results: Benefits through time ML, Be, Bp

MEF, Benefits

Add wetlands, Benefits

Compromise reached over 50 y

Social-ecological feedbacks

Roadmap

Part I: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Microcystis abundance

Part II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexity

Extensions: moving the problem upstream

Roadmap

Part I: Determining bloom trigger points» Methods: measuring pools and process» Results: quantifying Microcystis abundance

Part II: Coupling social-ecological dynamics» Methods: modeling interactions» Results: interpreting complexity

Extensions: moving the problem upstream

Where & When do blooms start?

Microcystis present in 0.3-m deep, 1st-order streams» Biomass in main-stem rivers, bays, and the open lake

Microcystis occurs by late April (at least)

Microcystis abundant through October (at least)

Current Microcystis biomass = 1970’s Cyanobacteria

Where & When do blooms start?

Where & When do blooms start?

TimeTime

Sp

ace

Sp

ace

Late summerLate summerEarly springEarly spring

LakeLake

BaysBays

RiversRivers

TribsTribs

????

?? ?? ??

Solving the Microcystis problem

People-ecosystem interactions important! Interactions between user groups also important

Ecological ModelEcological Model Social ModelSocial Model

Acknowledgements

Key personnel: » OSU: Amanda Martyn» KSU: Curtis Clevinger, Heather Kirkpatrick, Moumita Moitra» NU: Ashley Bantelman

Funding sources:» Ohio Lake Erie Protection Fund» Ohio Sea Grant College Program

Questions?Questions?