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M 6.5 pred/obs = 2.0. Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists Bold/Black - total model Type-A Faults Type-B Faults -Characteristic part Type-B Faults - GR part Type-C Zones Background Seismicity + Obs w/ 98% conf Best-Fit Obs. Figure 1. Default/Preferred Parameters - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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1
Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists
Bold/Black - total model
Type-A Faults
Type-B Faults -Characteristic part
Type-B Faults - GR part
Type-C Zones
Background Seismicity
+ Obs w/ 98% conf
Best-Fit Obs
M 6.5 pred/obs = 2.0
Default/Preferred Parameters(see Table 1 or notes here for values)
Figure 1
2
Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists
Bold/Black - total model
Type-A Faults
Type-B Faults -Characteristic part
Type-B Faults - GR part
Type-C Zones
Background Seismicity
+ Obs w/ 98% conf
Best-Fit Obs
M 6.5 pred/obs = 2.7
Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide):
Aftershock/Foreshock Fraction = 0.0
Coupling Coefficient = 1.0
Fract MoRate to Background = 0.0
Figure 2
3
Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists
Bold/Black - total model
Type-A Faults
Type-B Faults -Characteristic part
Type-B Faults - GR part
Type-C Zones
Background Seismicity
+ Obs w/ 98% conf
Best-Fit Obs
M 6.5 pred/obs = 2.0
Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide):
Segmented A-Fault Solution Types = Minimum Rate (on all faults)
NOTE - same result for all = Maximum Rate
Figure 3
4
Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists
Bold/Black - total model
Type-A Faults
Type-B Faults -Characteristic part
Type-B Faults - GR part
Type-C Zones
Background Seismicity
+ Obs w/ 98% conf
Best-Fit Obs
M 6.5 pred/obs = 1.8
Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide):Segmented A-Fault Solution Types = Minimum Rate (on all faults)Wt On Segment Rates = 0.0
Figure 4
5
Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists
Bold/Black - total model
Type-A Faults
Type-B Faults -Characteristic part
Type-B Faults - GR part
Type-C Zones
Background Seismicity
+ Obs w/ 98% conf
Best-Fit Obs
M 6.5 pred/obs = 2.2
Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide):Segmented A-Fault Solution Types = Maximum Rate (on all faults)Wt On Segment Rates = 0.0
Figure 5
6
Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists
Bold/Black - total model
Type-A Faults
Type-B Faults -Characteristic part
Type-B Faults - GR part
Type-C Zones
Background Seismicity
+ Obs w/ 98% conf
Best-Fit Obs
M 6.5 pred/obs = 1.8
Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide):A-Fault Solution Type = Unsegmented Model
Figure 6
7
Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists
Bold/Black - total model
Type-A Faults
Type-B Faults -Characteristic part
Type-B Faults - GR part
Type-C Zones
Background Seismicity
+ Obs w/ 98% conf
Best-Fit Obs
M 6.5 pred/obs = 1.9
Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide):A-Fault Slip Model = Characteristic (Dsr=Ds)
Figure 7
8
Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists
Bold/Black - total model
Type-A Faults
Type-B Faults -Characteristic part
Type-B Faults - GR part
Type-C Zones
Background Seismicity
+ Obs w/ 98% conf
Best-Fit Obs
M 6.5 pred/obs = 1.9
Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide):A-Fault Slip Model = Uniform/Boxcar (Dsr=Dr)
Figure 8
9
Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists
Bold/Black - total model
Type-A Faults
Type-B Faults -Characteristic part
Type-B Faults - GR part
Type-C Zones
Background Seismicity
+ Obs w/ 98% conf
Best-Fit Obs
M 6.5 pred/obs = 2.0
Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide):A-Fault Slip Model = WGCEP-2002 model (Dsr prop to Vs)
Figure 9
10
Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists
Bold/Black - total model
Type-A Faults
Type-B Faults -Characteristic part
Type-B Faults - GR part
Type-C Zones
Background Seismicity
+ Obs w/ 98% conf
Best-Fit Obs
M 6.5 pred/obs = 2.2
Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide):Mag-Area Relationship = Ellsworth-A (WGCEP, 2002, Eq 4.5a)
Figure 10
11
Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists
Bold/Black - total model
Type-A Faults
Type-B Faults -Characteristic part
Type-B Faults - GR part
Type-C Zones
Background Seismicity
+ Obs w/ 98% conf
Best-Fit Obs
M 6.5 pred/obs = 2.2
Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide):Mag-Area Relationship = Hanks & Bakun (2002)
Figure 11
12
Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists
Bold/Black - total model
Type-A Faults
Type-B Faults -Characteristic part
Type-B Faults - GR part
Type-C Zones
Background Seismicity
+ Obs w/ 98% conf
Best-Fit Obs
M 6.5 pred/obs = 2.4
Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide):Mag-Area Relationship = Somerville (2006)
Figure 12
13
Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists
Bold/Black - total model
Type-A Faults
Type-B Faults -Characteristic part
Type-B Faults - GR part
Type-C Zones
Background Seismicity
+ Obs w/ 98% conf
Best-Fit Obs
M 6.5 pred/obs = 1.6
Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide):% Char vs GR = 100.0
Figure 13
14
Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists
Bold/Black - total model
Type-A Faults
Type-B Faults -Characteristic part
Type-B Faults - GR part
Type-C Zones
Background Seismicity
+ Obs w/ 98% conf
Best-Fit Obs
M 6.5 pred/obs = 1.5
Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide):B-Faults Min Mag = 5.0
Figure 14
15
Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists
Bold/Black - total model
Type-A Faults
Type-B Faults -Characteristic part
Type-B Faults - GR part
Type-C Zones
Background Seismicity
+ Obs w/ 98% conf
Best-Fit Obs
M 6.5 pred/obs = 2.1
Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide):Connect More B Faults? = false
Figure 15
16
Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists
Bold/Black - total model
Type-A Faults
Type-B Faults -Characteristic part
Type-B Faults - GR part
Type-C Zones
Background Seismicity
+ Obs w/ 98% conf
Best-Fit Obs
M 6.5 pred/obs = 1.7
Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide):Include C Zones? = false
Figure 16
17
Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists
Bold/Black - total model
Type-A Faults
Type-B Faults -Characteristic part
Type-B Faults - GR part
Type-C Zones
Background Seismicity
+ Obs w/ 98% conf
Best-Fit Obs
M 6.5 pred/obs = 1.7
Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide):Mean Mag Correction = +0.1
Figure 17
18
Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists
Bold/Black - total model
Type-A Faults
Type-B Faults -Characteristic part
Type-B Faults - GR part
Type-C Zones
Background Seismicity
+ Obs w/ 98% conf
Best-Fit Obs
M 6.5 pred/obs = 1.9
Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide):Deformation Model = D2.2
Figure 18
19
Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists
Bold/Black - total model
Type-A Faults
Type-B Faults -Characteristic part
Type-B Faults - GR part
Type-C Zones
Background Seismicity
+ Obs w/ 98% conf
Best-Fit Obs
M 6.5 pred/obs = 2.0
Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide):Deformation Model = D2.3
Figure 19
20
Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists
Bold/Black - total model
Type-A Faults
Type-B Faults -Characteristic part
Type-B Faults - GR part
Type-C Zones
Background Seismicity
+ Obs w/ 98% conf
Best-Fit Obs
M 6.5 pred/obs = 1.0
Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide):(BEST CASE FOUND, BUT NOT CREDIBLE?)
Coupling Coefficient = 0.67
Segmented A-Fault Solution Types = Minimum Rate (on all faults)
A-Fault Slip Model = WGCEP-2002 model (Dsr prop to Vs)
Wt On Segment Rates = 0.0
% Char vs GR = 100.0
Include C Zones? = false
Figure 20
21
Cumulative Mag-Freq Dists
Bold/Black - total model
Type-A Faults
Type-B Faults -Characteristic part
Type-B Faults - GR part
Type-C Zones
Background Seismicity
+ Obs w/ 98% conf
Best-Fit Obs
M 6.5 pred/obs = 1.5
Parameter Changes (relative to 1st slide):(MORE CREDIBLE?)
Coupling Coefficient = 0.75
% Char vs GR = 85.0
Include C Zones? = false
Figure 21
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