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IPCC Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories UNFCCC Workshop on the Preparation of National Communications from non-Annex I Parties April 26-30, 2004, Manila Leandro Buendia Programme Officer, IPCC-NGGIP-TSU (lbuendia@iges.or.jp). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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IPCC Good Practice Guidance IPCC Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in and Uncertainty Management in
National Greenhouse Gas National Greenhouse Gas InventoriesInventories
UNFCCC Workshop on the Preparation of National Communications from non-Annex I Parties
April 26-30, 2004, Manila
Leandro BuendiaProgramme Officer, IPCC-NGGIP-TSU
(lbuendia@iges.or.jp)
Decision 17/CP.8, Annex (Guidelines for the Preparation of NC from non-Annex 1 Parties)
Objectives
Para 1b. To encourage the presentation of information in a consistent, transparent and comparable, as well as flexible, manner, taking into account specific national circumstances.
Decision 17/CP.8
MethodologiesPara 11. Non-Annex 1 Parties are encouraged to apply the IPCC Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, taking into account the need to improve transparency, consistency, comparability, completeness and accuracy in inventories.
Para 12. Non-Annex I Parties are also encouraged, to the extent possible, to undertake any key source analysis as indicated in the IPCC good practice guidance to assist in developing inventories that better reflect their national circumstances.
Decision 17/CP.8
Reporting
Para 24. Non-Annex I Parties are encouraged to provide information on the level of uncertainty associated with inventory data and their underlying assumptions, and to describe the methodologies used, if any, for estimating these uncertainties.
Contents
Background InformationWhat is good practice guidance Contents of the ReportKey Source CategoryPolicy RelevanceConclusion
Background Information June 1998: SBSTA 8 encouraged IPCC to give high priority to
completing its work on uncertainty, as well as to prepare a report on good practices in inventory management and to submit a report on these issues for consideration by SBSTA, if possible by COP5
October 1998: IPCC held a Planning Meeting in Paris to plan for the work
January 1999 – October 1999: Sectoral and Cross-sectoral Expert Meetings
December 1999 - February 2000: First draft was reviewed by governments and experts
May 2000: IPCC XVI accepted the GPG2000 Report
June 2000: SBSTA 12 endorsed the GPG2000
Background Information
IPCC Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (GPG2000)
Published in 2000
What is good practice guidance?
Good Practice Guidance (GPG) aims to assist countries in producing inventories:
in which uncertainties are reduced as far as is practicable
that are neither over- nor underestimates so far as can be judged
transparent documented consistent over time complete comparable assessed for uncertainties subject to quality control and assurance efficient in the use of resources
Further aims, to produce inventories which are:
Structure of the GPG2000
Preface
Chapter 1 Introduction
Chapter 2 Energy
Chapter 3 Industrial Processes
Chapter 4 Agriculture
Chapter 5 Waste
Chapter 6 Quantifying Uncertainties in Practice
Chapter 7 Methodological Choice and Recalculation
Chapter 8 Quality Assurance and Quality Control
Annex 1 Conceptual Basis for Uncertainty Analysis
Annex 2 Verification
Annex 3 Glossary
Annex 4 List of Participants
Source category good practice guidance
Source category specific good practice guidance (Chapters 2 to 5)
1. Methodological Issues Choice of method Choice of emission factors Choice of activity
2. Completeness
3. Developing a Consistent Time series
4. Uncertainty Assessment
5. Reporting and Documentation
6. Inventory Quality Assurance/Quality Control
1. Methodological Issues Choice of Method
estimation methods suited to national circumstances
decision trees (which tier?) Choice of Emission Factors
most suitable emission factors for inventory calculation (default values)
Choice of Activity Data most suitable activity data for inventory
calculation
Doesthe country manage
cattle, buffalo, sheep, goats, camels, mules/asses, swine, or other
livestock?
Report‘Not Occurring’
No
Is enteric fermentation a key source category?
(Note 1)
Ask for each species: Is this
sub-source category significant?
(Note 2)
Yes
Yes
Estimate emissionsfor the speciesusing Tier 2
Ask for each species: Are data available with which to
perform a Tier 2 estimate?
Estimate emissions for the species
using Tier 1
Figure 4.2 Decision Tree for CH4 Emissions from Enteric Fermentation
No
No
No
Yes Yes
2. Completeness advice to ensure complete estimates
3. Developing a Consistent Time series advice to ensure consistency throughout
the time series
4. Uncertainty Assessment provide default values for uncertainty
ranges
5. Reporting and Documentation provide what information is necessary
for the specific source category
6. Inventory Quality Assurance/Quality Control guidance and procedures to enable
cross-checks during inventory compilations
Chapter 6: Quantifying Uncertainties in Practice
describes GPG in estimating and reporting uncertainties associated with both annual estimates emissions
identifies types of uncertainty from the viewpoint of the inventory practitioner and shows how to obtain expert judgment in a consistent manner
provides two tiers for combining source category uncertainties into an uncertainty estimate for total national emissions
Chapter 7: Methodological Choice and Recalculation
how to identify key source categories in the national inventory
how to systematically manage methodological change overtime and ensure that trends in national emissions are consistently estimated
Chapter 8 Quality Assurance and Quality Control
covers measurement standards, routine computational and completeness checks, and documentation and data archiving procedures to be applied to the inventory at the compilation stage.
describes a system of independent review and auditing that could be implemented by inventory agencies
covers only actions that inventory agencies could take in respect of their own inventories
Annex 1 Conceptual Basis for Uncertainty Analysis
deals with the concepts that underlie the practical advice on uncertainties provided in the Chapters 2 to 8 of the main report (statistical concepts, sources of uncertainties, applications)
Annex 2 Verification
discusses international and scientific aspects, options or tools for inventory verification
includes practical guidance for verification of emissions inventories
Annex 3 Glossary
defines the terms of particular interest in the context of greenhouse gas inventories
summarises mathematical definitions of selected statistical terms for convenient reference
Key Source Category
“A key source category is one that is prioritized within the national inventory system because its estimate has a significant influence on a country’s total inventory of direct greenhouse gases in terms of the absolute level of emissions, the trend in emissions, or both.”
Why do we need to identify key source
categories in the national inventory? inventory development is a resource
intensive enterprise in most cases, resources are limited and
have to be prioritized certain source categories are
particularly significant in their contribution to the overall uncertainty of the inventory
“It is important to identify these key source categories so that the resources available for inventory preparation may be prioritized and the best possible estimates prepared for the most significant source categories.”
…How do we identify Key Source Categories?
Key Source Category Analysis
Quantitative Approach – relationship between the level and trend of each source category’s emissions and total national emissions (Level and Trend Assessments)
Qualitative Approach – considers other criteria that are not easily assessed through a quantitative analysis.
Decision tree to identify key source categories
No
Yes
No
Are inventory data available for
more than one year?
Arecountry-specific
uncertainty estimates available for each category
estimate?
Determine key categories using the Tier 2 Level and Trend Assessments,
incorporating national uncertainty estimates and evaluating qualitative
criteria
Determine key categories using the Tier 1 Level Assessment and
evaluating qualitative considerations
Determine key categories using the Tier 1 Level and Trend
Assessments and evaluating qualitative criteria
Yes
Quantitative Approach -Tier 1 Method Level Assessment
Equation 7.1
Source Category Level Assessment =
Source Category Estimate / Total Estimate
Lx,t = Ex,t / Et
Where:
Lx,t is the Level Assessment for source x in year t
Source Category Estimate (Ex,t ) is the emission estimate of source category x in year t
Total Estimate (Et) is the total inventory estimate in year t
Table 7.2: Spreadsheet for the Tier 1 Analysis – Level Assessment
AIPCC
SourceCategories
BDirect
GreenhouseGas
CBase YearEstimate
DCurrent
YearEstimate
ELevel
Assessment
FCumulative
Total
TOTAL
Column A – list of IPCC source categories (see Table 7.1, Suggested IPCC Source Categories)Column B – Direct Greenhouse Gas ( CO2, CH4, N2O, etc.)Column C – Base year emissions estimates from the national inventory data, in CO2-equivalent unitsColumn D – Current year emissions estimates from the most recent national inventory, in CO2-equivalent unitsColumn E: Level Assessment from Equation 7.1Column F: Cumulative total of Column E
How to decide using Table 7.2?
Any source category that meets the 95% threshold in any year should be identified as a key source category.
Tier 1 Analysis – Level Assessment (US Inventory)IPCC Source Categories Direct
Greenhouse Gas
Base Year Estimate
Current Year Estimate
Level Assessment
Cumulative Total of LA
CO2 Emissions from Stationary Combustion -
Coal
CO2 481.6 533.3 0.29 0.29
Mobile Combustion – Road & Other CO2 338.1 381.0 0.21 0.50
CO2 Emissions from Stationary Combustion -
Gas
CO2 266.0 313.1 0.17 0.68
CO2 Emissions from Stationary Combustion –
Oil
CO2 176.8 177.5 0.10 0.77
CH4 Emissions from Solid Waste Disposal
Sites
CH4 56.2 66.7 0.04 0.81
Direct N2O Emissions from Agricultural Soils N2O 46.6 53.7 0.03 0.84
Mobile Combustion: Aircraft CO2 50.5 50.1 0.03 0.87
Fugitive Emissions from Oil and Gas Operations
34.5 35.1 0.02 0.89
CH4 Emissions from Enteric Fermentation in
Domestic Livestock
CH4 32.7 34.1 0.02 0.91
Indirect N2O Emissions from Nitrogen Used in
Agriculture
N2O 18.8 20.4 0.01 0.92
Fugitive Emissions from coal mining and handling
CH4 24.0 18.8 0.01 0.93
CH4 Emissions from Manure management CH4 14.9 17.0 0.01 0.94
Mobile Combustion: Road and Other N2O 13.0 16.9 0.01 0.95
Mobile Combustion: Marine CO2 16.4 15.4 0.01 0.96
…… …… …… …… …… ……
TOTAL 1632.1 1813.6 1.00
Tier 1 Method Trend Assessment
Equation 7.2Source Category Trend Assessment =
(Source Category Level Assessment) x (Source Category Trend –Total Trend)
Tx,t = Lx,t * [( Ex,t - Ex,o) / Ex,t] - [(Et - Eo)/ Et]
Where:
Tx,t is the Trend Assessment which is the contribution of the source category to the overall inventory trend (absolute value)
Lx,t is the Level Assessment for source x in year t (Equation 7.1)
Ex,t and Ex,o are the emissions estimates of source category x in years t and 0, respectively
Et and Eo are the total inventory estimates in years t and 0, respectively
Table 7.3: Spreadsheet for the Tier 1 Analysis – Trend Assessment
AIPCC
SourceCategories
BDirect
GreenhouseGas
CBase YearEstimate
DCurrent
YearEstimate
ETrend
Assessment
F%
Contrib’n toTrend
GCumulative
Total ofColumn F
TOTAL
Column A – list of IPCC source categories (see Table 7.1, Suggested IPCC Source Categories)Column B – Direct Greenhouse Gas ( CO2, CH4, N2O, etc.)Column C – Base year emissions estimates from the national inventory data, in CO2-equivalent unitsColumn D – Current year emissions estimates from the most recent national inventory, in CO2-equivalent unitsColumn E: Trend Assessment from Equation 7.2 recorded as an absolute numberColumn F: Percentage contribution to the total trend of the national inventoryColumn G: Cumulative Total of Column F
Tier 1 Analysis – Trend Assessment (US Inventory)IPCC Source Categories Direct
Greenhouse Gas
Base Year Estimate
Current Year Estimate
Trend Assessment
% Contribution to trend
Cumulative Total
CO2 Emissions from Stationary Combustion - Oil CO2 176.8 177.5 0.01 19 0.19
CO2 Emissions from Stationary Combustion - Gas CO2 266.0 313.1 0.01 17 0.36
Emissions from Subs. for Ozone Depleting substances Several 0.3 14.7 0.01 14 0.50
Fugitive Emissions from Coal Mining & handling CH4 24.0 18.8 <0.01 8 0.58
Mobile Combustion: Aviation CO2 50.5 50.1 <0.01 6 0.64
Mobile Combustion: Road & Other CO2 338.1 381.0 <0.01 5 0.69
CH4 Emissions from Solid Waste Disposal Sites CH4 56.2 66.7 <0.01 4 0.73
Fugitive Emissions from Oil & Gas Operations CH4 34.5 35.1 <0.01 3 0.76
Mobile Combustion: Marine CO2 16.4 15.4 <0.01 3 0.79
PFC Emissions from Aluminum Production PFC 4.9 2.9 <0.01 3 0.82
Mobile Combustion: Road & Other N2O 13.0 16.9 <0.01 2 0.84
HFC-23 Emissions from HCFC-22 Manufacture HFC 9.5 8.2 <0.01 2 0.87
CH4 Emissions from Enteric Fermentation in Livestock CH4 32.7 34.1 <0.01 2 0.89
Direct N2O Emissions from Agricultural Soils N2O 46.6 53.7 <0.01 2 0.91
CO2 Emissions from Stationary Combustion – Coal CO2 481.6 533.3 <0.01 2 0.92
N2O Emissions from Adipic Acid Production N2O 4.7 3.9 <0.01 1 0.94
SF6 from Magnesium Production SF6 1.7 3.0 <0.01 1 0.95
PFC, HFC & SF6 Emissions from semicon. manuf. several 0.2 1.3 <0.01 1 0.96
…… …… …… …… …… ……
TOTAL 1632.1 1813.6 0.05 1.00
Table 7.A3. Source Category Analysis Summary (US Inventory)
AIPCC Source Categories
BDirect Green-
house Gas
CKey Source Category Flag
DIf Column C is Yes, Criteria for identifi-cation
EComments
ENERGY SECTOR
CO2 Emissions from Stationary
Combustion - Coal
CO2 Yes Level, Trend
CO2 Emissions from Stationary
Combustion – Oil
CO2 Yes Level, Trend
……
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
N2O Emissions from Adipic Acid
Production
N2O Yes Trend
……
AGRICULTURE SECTOR
……
Qualitative Approaches to identify key source categories
Use of mitigation techniques and technologies Expecting high emission growth Categories with high uncertainty Exhibiting unexpectedly low or high emissions
Criteria to consider that are not easily assessed through a quantitative analysis:
Policy Relevance
GPG2000 does not revise or replace the 96GLs
Provides reference that complements and is consistent with the 96GLs:specific source categories are the same or can be
traced back to categories in 96GLsuses same functional forms for the equations, or
their equivalentallows for correction of any errors or deficiencies
that have been identified in the 96GLs
Conclusions it is through good practice guidance and uncertainty
management that a sound basis can be provided to produce more reliable estimates of the magnitude of absolute and trend uncertainties in GHG inventories than has been achieved previously
whatever the level of complexity of the inventory, good practice provides improved understanding of how uncertainties may be managed to produce emissions estimates that are acceptable for the purposes of the UNFCCC (i.e. transparency, consistency, comparability, completeness and accuracy in inventories), and for the scientific work associated with GHG inventories.
http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp
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