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•Daily Operations Briefing Tuesday, August 13, 2013
As of 8:30 a.m. EDT
2
Significant Activity: Aug 12 – 13 Significant Events: No activity
Tropical Activity:
• Atlantic – Area 1 (10%)
• Eastern Pacific – Area 1 (40%)
• Central Pacific – Area 1 (20%)
• Western Pacific – No activity threatening U.S. territories
Significant Weather:
• Slight risk of severe thunderstorms – Mid-Atlantic
• Heavy rain and flash flooding – Lower Mississippi Valley
• Critical Fire Weather Areas: None
• Red Flag Warnings: WA, ID and OR
• Space Weather: Past 24 hours – Minor, R1 activity; Next 24 hours – None
Earthquake Activity: No significant activity
Declaration Activity: FMAG approved for Elk Complex Fire – August 12, 2013
3
Updates at 2:00 am/pm and 8:00 am/pm EDT
Atlantic – Tropical Outlook
4
Atlantic – Area 1
As of 8:00 a.m. EDT
• Cloudiness and showers extending from SW Caribbean
Sea northeastward to near Jamaica
• Associated with a tropical wave and a broad area of
low pressure
• Expected to become more favorable for development over
next couple of days
• Moving toward Yucatan Peninsula and southern Gulf of
Mexico
• Probability of Tropical Cyclone Development:
• Next 48 hours: Low chance 10% of becoming a
tropical cyclone
• Next 5 days: Medium chance 30% of becoming a
tropical cyclone
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml
This product is updated at approximately 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, and
11 PM PDT from May 15 to November 30. Special outlooks may be
issued as conditions warrant.
Eastern Pacific – Tropical Outlook
6
Eastern Pacific – Area 1
As of 8:00 a.m. EDT
• Low pressure system is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms
• Located 1,500 miles WSW of Mexico
• Moving W at 15 to 20 mph
• Environmental conditions marginally conducive for
development during the next couple of days
• Probability of Tropical Cyclone Development
• Next 48 Hours: Medium chance 40%
• Next 5 days: Medium chance 40%
7
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/
This product is updated at approximately 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, and
11 PM PDT from May 15 to November 30. Special outlooks may be
issued as conditions warrant.
Central Pacific – Tropical Outlook
8
Central Pacific – Area 1
As of 8:00 a.m. EDT
• Area of low pressure located about 900 miles
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to
produce showers and thunderstorms
• Conditions are hindering development around a single
dominant center
• If development occurs, it will be slow
• Moving westward at about 15 mph
• Probability of Tropical Cyclone Development
• Next 48 hours: Low chance 20%
9
Tweet Chat with National Hurricane Center
Overview
Ahead of the peak of the 2013 hurricane season (mid Aug
through late Oct), NHC Director Dr. Rick Knabb & senior
hurricane specialist Daniel Brown will answer questions
regarding:
• Tracking and forecasting potentially damaging storms and
how best to be prepared
Details
• Use Twitter to chat live online with NOAA's National Hurricane
Center
• Tuesday, August 13 at 2:00 p.m. EDT on the @NOAALive
Twitter feed
• Tweet your questions to @NOAALive using hashtag
#HurriChat (or just follow the conversation hashtag)
10
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaad1.pdf
National Weather Forecast
11
Active Watches/Warnings
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php
12
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif
Precipitation Forecast Days 1-3
DAY 1
DAY 2
DAY 3
13
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/forecasts.php?current_color=flood¤t_type=all&fcst_type=fcst&conus_map=d_map
River Forecast – 7 Day
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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Convective Outlooks Days 1 – 3
Day 1 Day 2
Day 3
15
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
Critical Fire Weather Areas Days 1 – 8
Day 1 Day 2
Day 3-8
16
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats_ie.php
Hazard Outlook: August 15 – 19
19
www.spaceweather.com
http://www.swpc.noaa.n/index.html
http://
Space Weather
NOAA Scales Activity (Range: 1/minor to 5/extreme)
Past
24 Hours Current
Next
24 Hours
Space Weather Activity: Minor None None
• Geomagnetic Storms None None None
• Solar Radiation Storms None None None
• Radio Blackouts R1 None None
Sunspot Activity
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/global.html http://spaceweather.com/
HF Communication Impact
20
U.S. Wildland Fire Preparedness Levels
As of August 13, 2013
National Preparedness Level: 4 Description: Three or more Geographic Areas are experiencing incidents requiring Type 1 and 2 IMTs. Competition exists
between Geographic Areas. Nationally, 60 percent of Type 1 and 2 IMTs and crews are committed.
PL 4
PL 4
PL 2
PL 5
PL 2
PL 1 PL 5
Minimal Extreme
PL 2
PL 4
PL 1
PL 1
PL 1
PL 3
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http://activefiremaps.fs.fed.us/lg_fire2.php
Monday, August 13, 2013
• National Preparedness Level: 4
• Initial Attack Activity: Light (170 new fires)
• New Large Fires: 3
• Large Fires Contained: 1
• Uncontained Large Fires: 37
• Area Command Teams committed: 0
• NIMOs committed: 1
• Type 1 IMT(s) Committed: 6
• Type 2 IMT(s) Committed: 17
National Fire Activity
22
Elk Complex Fire – Idaho
Fire
Name Location Acres burned
%
Contained
Est. Full
Containment FMAG Approved
Structures Lost /
Threatened
Fatalities /
Injuries
Elk Complex Elmore County 221,000 5% TBD August 12, 2013 0 / 518 0 / 0
Situation
• Fires began August 8, due to an evening lightning strike on federal, state &
private lands
• Burning near the community of Pine (pop 700); fire has burned through
communities of Prairie and Falls Creek
• Fire is threatening 500 homes (200 primary, 300 secondary); a senior citizens
facility, power lines, a watershed and secondary roads
• Heavy loss of livestock
• Evacuations are in effect (no. unknown); no open shelters
Response
• 416 personnel including a Type-1 IMT are assigned
• ID State EOC is not activated
• Region X RRCC at Watch/Steady State; Bothell MOC is monitoring
= Elmore County
Photo Credit: Inciweb
23
Wildfire Summary
Fire Name
(County) FMAG #
Acres
burned
% Contained Est. Containment
date
Evacuations Structures
Threatened Structures Destroyed
Fatalities /
Injuries
Oregon (1)
Douglas Complex (Douglas County)
FEMA-5037-FM-OR
July 28, 2013
45,483
(+72) 50% (+2) Voluntary 545 4 0/7
Idaho (1)
Elk Complex
(Elmore County) Approved Aug 12, 2013 221,000 5% Mandatory 518 0 0/0
Washington (1)
Milepost 10 (FINAL) (Chelan County)
FEMA-5042-FM-WA
August 10, 2013
5,684
(-316)
70%
(+55) Lifted 230 0 0/0
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FMAG Requests and Declarations
Action (since last report) Total FMAG No. and State
Requests DENIED 0
Requests APPROVED 1 Elk Complex Fire, Idaho
Approved Aug 12, 2013
As of August 9, 2013 FY2013 FY2012*
FMAGs Approved 22 32
FMAGs Denied 7 15
* Cumulative FMAG figures as of this date in FY2012
28
Open Field Offices as of August 13, 2013
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OFDC Cadre Member Status
Federal Coordinating Officer
Deployed Detailed Available Not Available Total
24 2 10 1 37
Total Available Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type 4
12* 2 6 2 2
* All Type 1 FCOs are available unless deployed to a Level 1 event
Federal Disaster Recovery Coordinator
Deployed Available Pending Hire On Board Positions
7 2 1 9 10
As of: 08/9/2013
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MCOV Fleet / Deployment Status
Fully Mission Capable 50 Partially Mission Capable 0 Non-Mission Capable 5 Total Not Deployed 55
MCOV FLEET STATUS MCOV DISASTER SUPPORT DEPLOYMENTS
Location Units
Assigned Available
FMC Deployed
Committed PMC Unavailable DR-State OPCON
En
Route Unit Prep
Open
Request Notes:
MERS Maynard 3 1 0 0 2 0 0 0
MERS Frederick 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0
MERS Thomasville 14 13 0 0 1 0 0 0
DC Ft Worth 20 18 0 0 2 0 0 0
MERS Denver 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
MERS Bothell 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sacramento 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 55 50 0 0 5 TOTAL 0 0 0 0
Included in above totals, units in route for turn-in. 0 0
Data as of: 08/12/13 @ 1500
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Active IA Disasters - Referral Status & Awards
Data as of: 08/12/13 @ 1500 # Max Grants = Applicants awarded maximum IHP ($31,900 as of FY 2013)
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IA Registration Statistics
IA Registrations and IHP Amounts as of August 12, 2013 @ 1500
DR/EM # - State Registrations Approved
Applicants Total HA Approved
Total ONA
Approved Total IHP Approved
4117 - OK 15,070 3,504 $9,536,852 $4,284,905 $13,821,756
4122 - AK 348 237 $1,045,391 $1,426,914 $2,472,305
Totals 15,418 3,741 $10,582,243 $5,711,819 $16,294,061
24 hour change +23 +2 +$1,086 +$7,237 +$8,324
NPSC Call Data for August 11, 2013
Total Calls Answered (Help Line + Registration Intake) 649
Average time to answer call 13 seconds
Maximum / Minimum time to answer a call 34 seconds / 10 seconds
33
Housing Inspection Statistics
Inspection Data as of August 12, 2013 @ 1500
DR # - State Inspectors Inspections
Assigned
Inspections
Completed
Inspection %
Complete
Turnaround Time
(Days)
4117 - OK 6 8,129 8,038 98.88% 1.9
4122 - AK 1 368 349 94.84% 3.0
TOTAL 7 8,497 8,387 98.71% 2.0
24 hour change 0 +14 +4 -0.12% 0.0
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Workforce Type Total Available To
Deploy Deployed
Committed To
Other Activities
or Exempt from
Deployment
Operational Readiness
Reservist 6,352 3,685 (53%) 2,016 (35%) 651 (12%) Mission Capable
Cadre of On-Call Response
Employees (CORE) 2,564 970 (40%) 1,590 (60%) 4 (0%) Mission Capable
Permanent Full Time (PFT) 4,991 1,976 (40%) 524 (10%) *2,491 (50%) Mission Capable
FEMA Corps 309 0 (0%) 161 (54%) 148 (46%) Mission Capable
DHS Surge Capacity Force 3,907 1,712 (40%) 0 (0%) ** 2,195 (60%) Awaiting DHS/FEMA Activation
Workforce Totals 18,123 8,343 (45%) 4,291 (24%) 5,489 (31%)
= <70% Deployed/Mission Capable = 70% - 79% Deployed/Partially Mission Capable
= >80% Deployed
= >80% Committed to Other Activities- Awaiting DHS/FEMA Activation
*This number will continue to be refined as Directorates/Regions identify and solidify the number of personnel required to support “mission critical home station”, and Emergency Relocation Group personnel **Deployable based on FEMA’s need for DHS activation Employees may be committed to other activities or exempt from deployment based on: leave status, training, travel related issues, or personnel status as ERG or mission critical home station employee
FEMA Workforce Status Report
Data as of 8/12/13
36
IMAT Status National Teams
Team Status Team Status Team Status
Blue/White East West
Regional Teams Team Status Team Status Team Status
Region I Region V Region VIII ND/SD/SRST*
Region II Region VI-1 OK Region IX-1
Region III Region VI-2 AR Region IX-2
Region IV-1 Region VII Region X
Region IV-2 *SRST – Standing Rock Sioux Tribe
= Assigned/Deployed
= Not Mission Capable
= Available/Mission Capable
= Available/Partially Mission Capable
37
Urban Search & Rescue INCIDENT SUPPORT TEAMS (Red-White-Blue) – Monthly On Call Rotation
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
WEST CENTRAL EAST
Team Status Team Status Team Status
CA-TF1 Available AZ-TF1 Available FL-TF1 Available
CA-TF2 Available CO-TF1 Available FL-TF2 Available
CA-TF3 Available IN-TF1 Available MA-TF1 Available
CA-TF4 Available MO-TF1 Available MD-TF1 Available
CA-TF5 Available NE-TF1 Available NY-TF1 Available
CA-TF6 Available NM-TF1 Non-operational PA-TF1 Conditionally
Available
CA-TF7 Available NV-TF1 Conditionally
Available VA-TF1 Available
CA-TF8 Available TN-TF1 Available VA-TF2 Available
WA-TF1 Available TX-TF1 Available OH-TF1 Available
UT-TF1 Available
= Assigned/Deployed = Out-of-Service
= Available/Mission Capable = Available/Partially Mission Capable
38
Region RRCC Regional Watch Center
I Watch/Steady State Maynard MOC (24/7)
II Watch/Steady State 24/7
III Watch/Steady State 24/7
IV Watch/Steady State 24/7
V Watch/Steady State 24/7
VI Watch/Steady State Denton MOC (24/7)
VII Level III 24/7
VIII Watch/Steady State Denver MOC (24/7)
IX Watch/Steady State 24/7
X Watch/Steady State Bothell MOC (24/7)
RRCC / Regional Watch Center Status
39
National Team Status
Team/Status Current Location Remarks
National Watch Center Washington, DC Watch/Steady State
NRCC Washington, DC Not Activated
HLT Miami, FL Activated
DEST Washington, DC Not Activated
Mission Capable Partially Mission Capable Not Mission Capable
40
Date Exercise Event Capability Focus Target Audience/
FEMA Participation Location
8/10-16 Vibrant Response 13.2 Functional Exercise Type I, IND
ARNORTH, FEMA
Region V, Denver MERS,
FEMA HQ NRCC SimCell
(limited staffing)
Camp Atterbury,
IN and FEMA HQ
8/13-15
National Exercise
Program (NEP)
Capstone Exercise* /
Alaska Shield 14
Midterm Planning
Meeting/MSEL Writing Multiple
State of Alaska,
FEMA HQ, FEMA Region
X, inter-agency reps
Anchorage, AK
8/14
NEP Capstone
Exercise* / Eagle
Horizon 14
Initial Planning Meeting COOP/COG
FEMA National Continuity
Programs, inter-agency
reps
Washington, DC
8/22 NEP Capstone
Exercise* / NUWAIX 14
Incident Management
Workshop Consequence Management
DOE/NNSA, inter-agency
reps TBD, Colorado
* The 2013 NEP Capstone Exercise will be held from March 27-April 10, 2014 and consists of five main exercises: Alaska
Shield 2014, Ardent Sentry 2014, Nuclear Weapon Accident Incident Exercise (NUWAIX) 2014, Eagle Horizon 2014, and
Long-Term Recovery Tabletop Exercise
FEMA Exercise Branch 30-day Outlook
41
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