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Creating an Operations-Based Travel Forecast Tool for Small Oregon Communities. TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference May 20, 2009 Chris Maciejewski, P.E. – DKS Associates. 10. 5. Presentation Outline. Traditional Planning Issues / Shortcomings Methodology Overview - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Creating an Operations-Based Travel Forecast Tool for Small Oregon Communities
TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference
May 20, 2009
Chris Maciejewski, P.E. – DKS Associates
5
10
+Presentation Outline
Traditional Planning Issues / Shortcomings
Methodology Overview
Outcomes
Applications in Transportation Plans
Conclusions
+Transportation Planning Issues in Small Communities
Capacity needs dominate system More lanes Couplet Bypass
Reduced state funding capacity [how is this unique to small cities?]
Highway congestion 20-30 days per year
Limited matching funds for highways
Looking for solutions to protect community livability
State Highways Local Perspective
+Limitations of Traditional Methods for Travel Forecasts
Travel Demand Model Not Available
Manual Methods Exist… Trend-line Cumulative (TIS-style)
But They Cannot: Consider operations React to congestion Evaluate multiple
scenarios
Unconstrained Trend-line?
Congested Corridor?
Year
Volu
me
+An Integrated Tool Needed to Meet All Study Requirements
Assess Corridor Management
Local Circulation Enhancement
Relief Valves For Seasonal Congestion
Balance Of Community Livability with Highway Capacity
+New Elements Needed to Strengthen Forecast Process
Cannot dynamically assess route changes
Does not consider effects of congestion
Cost effective scenario testing
Weakness of Current Process Tool Features
Develops trip tables to test circulation patterns
Uses node delays for assignments
Rapid Evaluation Of Alternatives
+Key Methods Applied
Parcel Level Land Use
Use Of NAVTEQ Network Files
ITE Trip Rates
Simple Gravity Model
HCM Node Delays
Export Network/Volumes To Synchro/SimTraffic
Forecast Process
+Quality Review Process
Calibration Exceeded Expectations R2 = 0.98, slope =
1.03 Reasonable turn-
movements Local circulation
patterns captured
Simple Gravity Model Reasonable For Small Communities
+Other Useful Results
Volume Difference Plots Quickly summarize alternative effects Useful to communicate changes in traffic flows
Conversion of VISUM file to Synchro/Simtraffic
+Sample Application – Sisters, OR Forecasts Responded to Corridor Congestion
Detailed Evaluation of Corridor Management Options Visual tools facilitated participation from all interested
parties Led to City and ODOT consensus (first time in 20 years) Corridor solution with seasonal ITS, City arterial corridor
+Key Findings & Recommendations
Ability to rapidly/accurately test network changes
Graphic display tools help build consensus
Corridor Management = Fewer Unfunded Highway Projects
Most appropriate application for: Small urban areas (less than 15,000 pop.) Significant growth forecasts Multiple scenarios need to be evaluated and tweaked for
consensus building
+What About Larger Urban Areas? Integrate Operations
Into a Travel Demand Model? Sub-area plans Corridor plans Circulation studies
Utilize Travel Demand Model Trip Tables
Take Advantage of Operations-Based Assignments
Quasi-MesoscopicSub-Area Model
Forecast Process
+Next Steps
Can travel times in the forecast tool (including the HCM node delays) be utilized for greenhouse gas estimations? VMT (by speed bin) x Emissions Rate = Greenhouse
Gas? Valid for relative comparison of alternatives?
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