Contribution to the development of a comprehensive framework of African Climate change Program:...

Contribution to the development of a comprehensive framework of African Climate change Program:

Economics of climate adaptation in Africa

Presented by Musonda Mumba - UNEP

*****Youba Sokona, OSS

Thomas E Downing, SEIMuyeye Chambwera, IIED

Paul Watkiss, SEI

The work

Kindly note that these are preliminary results of the UNEP AdapCost Project supported by NORAD, building on relevant

studies supported by DFID, DANIDA & SIDA

This is therefore a join effort of:Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI)

Observatoire du Sahel et Sahara (OSS)International Institute on Environment & Development (IIED)

AND Others.

Work in relation to Comprehensive Framework

KINDLY note that its premature at this stage to complete the Comprehensive Framework that was called for in last

year’s decision – as this needs to be a COLLECTIVE effort emanating from Africa.

HOWEVER, this work highlights some of the elements of the Comprehensive Framework.

Observations•Warming of the climate system is unequivocal,

as is now evident from observations;

•Therefore adaptation to climate change is both a moral and survival imperative;

•Adaptation is about development, but development under uncertainty, where capacity to manage risk determines progress;

•Required is a new vision of how to do development under the pressure of new and increased risk.

Key messages (1)

•Cost of climate adaptation in Africa is at least $1 billion now;

•Economic assessments relate to different users and uses;

•Reliable finance...for effective solutions;

•Many entry points for adaptation;

•Adaptation requires greater investment in generating and managing information and knowledge.

Key messages (2)

•Adaptation planning should became a key imperative and not a marginal activity;

•Surveillance is a prerequisite for planning;

•Adaptation is contextual, should be driven by national agenda and no one size fits all;

•New types of institutions or new institutional arrangements required;

•Leadership for coordinated strategies.

African warming...•Observed warming is already more

than can be explained without including greenhouse gases in global models;

•Envelop of projectedwarming is veryserious

...will have costly impacts...

• Impacts of climate change in 2030could be 2.7% of GDP in Africa

• Regional variations are significant

• Source: initial results from a global integratedassessment model (FUND); UNEP AdaptCostand EC ClimateCost projects

...that grow over time

Source: Preliminary runs of FUND for the UNEP AdaptCost and EC ClimateCost projects

A sample of impacts in Africa

Water Resources25% of Africa’s population to experience water stress by

2020 (75-250 mil people)

Areas of concern include: North Africa, Western Cape, Arid Lands of Kenya etc.

Loss of Ecosystem Services

Loss of Corals and Bleaching – resulted in loss of tourism in Kenya

Biodiversity Hotspots: Reduction of mammal species in National Parks up to

25-40 %

Une illustration : le Lac Faguibine (Mali)

The situation will worsen if we fail to act now

Jan 74-déc 78Oct 2006

Lake Faguibine, in Mali has dried up due to diminished rainfall

Sea Level Rise

Risk areas – Coast lines – case studies: Egypt, Benin, Kenya, Mozambique

Agriculture: Yield reduction of up to 50% - studies in Burkina Faso,

Cameroon, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya…

Other examples of impacts in Africa

•Cooling demand/Energy cost: Rising temps will increase cooling demand & energy costs – in Mediterranean for

example;

•Health, burden of disease: climate change already caused over 55,000 deaths/year due vector disease & diarrhoeal

diseases; Already Malaria is spreading to high-altitude areas (Mt. Kenya, Rwenzori Mountain Region)

(Smith et al. 2009 PNAS)

Updated Reasons for Concern

EU 2°C-Guardrail

What do we know about the cost of climate change adaptation in Africa?

• Estimates range from nearly a billion dollars now to over 50 billion dollars by 2030

• Low estimates for Africa are for present needs, lower bound of estimates based largely on global assessments;

• High estimates for Africa are for 2020 to 2030 and the upper bound of estimates based largely on global assessments.

• URGENTLY need to get national input.

Adaptation costs in Africa

Source Low High Time frame

Oxfam 4.6 17.3 PresentStern 0.5 3.9 PresentWorld Bank 1.8 5.3 Present

AfDB/WB/UNECA 2 7 2030PAGE 1.9 7.8 2030SEI 0.8 10 2030UNDP 17.1 24.2 2015

US$ billion; based on a variety of methods; SEI estimates are from report to AMCEN in 2008, see new estimates for AdaptCost project

Economic assessments of the cost of adaptation have different purposes

There is sufficient evidence for action: we should not wait until we know everything!

Project level: Screen each project for an opportunity to promote climate adaptation and reduce future impacts

Policy level: Establish a national and regional framework for action

Pathways: The most important strategic decisions are ones that enable a switch to a different pathway for

development

Reliable finance leads to confidence in solutions and effective strategies

Some funding is on offer; little has been spent!Green bars: existing adaptation funds, with a cumulative

pledge (red line) at present of over $3 billion (global). Note the Adaptation Fund will have significant resources in the

next few years.Gold bars: expenditure by the funds, with a cumulative

expenditure (purple line) of less than $300 million.

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Adaptation initiatives in Africa

•NAPAs for Least Developed Countries

•Proliferation of Ad hoc projects and/or interventions (stocking exercise)

•Supply driven and not consistent with NAPAs

• Coherence and institutional issues

•Ownership and alignment gaps

Adaptation initiatives in Africa

•The Africa Adaptation Network – in better position to collate information on Adaptation across Africa. Countries need to know where information on specific issues can be found & WHO to approach in the first place.

Many entry points for adaptation

• Start with the urgent needs• Understanding vulnerability and impacts

• Improving natural resource management

• Reducing disaster risks

• Build capacity; learn by doing• Learn from pilot actions

• Scale up• Strategic protection

• Anticipate migration

•Types of Adaptation linked to:

•Vulnerability Assessments

•Capacity

•Piloting Adaptation

•Operational

Policy and strategic adaptation sequencing

•Example of URGENT Action:

•Awareness, Information, communication, early warning:

•Vulnerability Assessments: Build on NAPAs & existing platforms, link to multiple stressors e.g. desertification, health, pollution etc.;

•Capacity: Scale up existing organisations, networks, centres of excellence;

•Piloting Adaptation: Evaluate effect on poverty alleviation;

•Operational: Monitoring, learning from Actions.

Policy and strategic adaptation sequencing

•Example of Action required with 5-10 years:

•Crisis management, large scale migration:

•Vulnerability Assessments: Scoping potential “hot spots”, understand pathways in multiple stressor context;

•Capacity: Establish international capacity with national focal points.

Policy and strategic adaptation sequencing

•Example of Action required with 10-20 years – early preparation essential:

•Crisis management, large scale migration:

•Piloting Adaptation: Develop potential intervention models & approaches;

•Operational: Requires international strategies and Africa-wide Initiative.

Policy and strategic adaptation sequencing

National leadership:coordinated, strategic approaches

• National Adaptation Mechanism• National framework and funding• Building multi-stakeholder approaches• Sharing information and actions

• Sustained over the coming decade• Confidence in coordinated action• Link to regional and global networks• Building the knowledge base

• Reliable, timely funding • Pilot actions• Early, major investments for critical needs

Conclusions:Four key imperatives to consider

•Scale: Match need and responses to the scale of growing numbers of people and ecosystems in danger

•Speed: Waste no time because climate change is happening faster than predicted

•Focus: Manage risk, build the resilience by reducing vulnerability

•Integration: Consider at the same time risk reduction, adaptation, mitigation and human development goals

Thank you...

For further information, see www.weADAPT.org

Additional funding from DANIDA, DFID, NORAD, Sida (CforD)