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Conifer Mortality Estimates Using Conifer Mortality Estimates Using Forest Inventory and Analysis’s Annual Forest Inventory and Analysis’s Annual
Inventory SystemInventory System
Michael T. ThompsonForest Inventory and Analysis
Interior West RegionUser Group Meeting
April 13, 2010
FIA’s Annual Inventory DesignFIA’s Annual Inventory Design
Federal legislation passed in 1998 dictated major changes to the FIA program.
Annual inventories in all states.
Annual inventory premise was a tradeoff between temporal currency and statistical reliability.
Panel – one of 5 to 10 interpenetrating groups.
The western regions are on a 10-year cycle where one panel of data represents 10 percent of all plots.
The Panel SystemThe Panel System
Hexagons of equal area are used to establish plot locations.
Each hexagon represents an area of about 6,000 acres.
The hexagons completely cover the conterminous 48 states.
The Annual Inventory
Each year/panel is a spatially unbiased Each year/panel is a spatially unbiased grid of plots that can provide a stand-grid of plots that can provide a stand-alone inventory estimate. The stand-alone alone inventory estimate. The stand-alone may be referred to a the independent may be referred to a the independent panel designpanel design
Mortality Tree
For inventories with no re-measurable previous inventory a mortality tree is defined as any standing dead tree 5.0-inches d.b.h./d.r.c. and larger that was alive within the past five years but has died. The attribute of interest for a mortality tree (volume, basal area, etc.) is usually expressed as an annual average over a five year interval. A general cause of death (i.e. insects) is assigned to all trees classified as mortality.
Can annual inventory mortality estimates enhance estimates from
aerial detection surveys?
Average annual number of lodgepole pine mortality trees 5.0-inches and larger killed by insects in Colorado by mortality period, 2002 - 2009
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1997-2002 1998-2003 1999-2004 2000-2005 2001-2006 2002-2007 2003-2008 2004-2009
Nu
mb
er o
f tre
es (
mill
ion
s)
Mortality periodError bars represent the 95 percent confidence interval
Statistical AnalysisCharts Display confidence intervals.
Panel EffectNonparametric test (Wilcoxon) Pr > Chi-Square < .0001ANOVA Pr > F <.0001
Compare Individual PanelsTest all combinations of individual panels against each other (Bonferroni multiple test correction factor )
(2004 – 2009)/(2002-2007)*** significant at 0.05 level(2004--2009)/(2001-2006)*** significant at 0.05 level(2004 – 2009)/(1999-2004)*** significant at 0.05 level(2004 – 2009)/(2000-2005)*** significant at 0.05 level(2004 – 2009)/(1997-2002)*** significant at 0.05 level(2004 – 2009)/(1998-2003)*** significant at 0.05 level(2003 – 2008)/(1998-2003)*** significant at 0.05 level
Statistical Analysis – cont.Regression Analysis
Label Parameter Standard Error t value Pr > |t|
Intercept -415.15 64.43357 -6.44 <.0001Mortality period .20726 .03213 6.45 <.0001
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1997-2002 1998-2003 1999-2004 2000-2005 2001-2006 2002-2007 2003-2008 2004-2009
Nu
mb
er o
f tre
es (
mill
ion
s)
Mortality periodError bars represent the 95 percent confidence interval
Number of live lodgepole pine trees 5.0-inches d.b.h. and larger with evidence of bark beetle damage in Colorado by
measurement year, 2002 - 2009
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mill
ion
tree
s
Measurement yearError bars represent the 95 percent confidence interval
Number of live lodgepole pine trees >= 5.0-inches d.b.h. in Colorado by measurement year, 2002 - 2009
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mill
ion
tree
s
Measurement yearError bars represent the 95 percent confidence interval
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18+
Mill
ion
tree
s
2-inch Diameter Class
Number of live lodgepole pine trees in Colorado by diameter class, 2009
Number of live lodgepole pine trees >= 10.0-inches d.b.h. in Colorado by measurement year, 2002 - 2009
0
50
100
150
200
250
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mill
ion
tree
s
Measurement year
Average annual number of subalpine fir mortality trees 5.0-inches and larger in Colorado by mortality period, 2002 - 2009
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1997-2002 1998-2003 1999-2004 2000-2005 2001-2006 2002-2007 2003-2008 2004-2009
Mill
ion
tree
s
Mortality Period
Number of live subalpine fir trees >= 10.0-inches d.b.h. in Colorado by measurement year, 2002 - 2009
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mill
ion
tree
s
Measurement Year
Average annual number of lodgepole pine mortality trees 5.0-inches and larger in Montana by mortality period, 2002 - 2009
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1998-2003 1999-2004 2000-2005 2001-2006 2002-2007 2003-2008 2004-2009
Mill
ion
tree
s
Mortality Period
Number of live lodgepole pine trees >= 10.0-inches d.b.h. in Montana by measurement year, 2002 - 2009
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mill
ion
tree
s
Measurement Year
Average annual number of lodgepole pine mortality trees 5.0-inches and larger in Idaho by mortality period, 2002 - 2009
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1999-2004 2000-2005 2001-2006 2002-2007 2003-2008 2004-2009
Mill
ion
tree
s
Mortality Period
Remeasurement of Previously Established Plots
Variable-radius Plots
Montana
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Initial Inventory Survivor Growth
Ingrowth Mortality Removals Terminal Inventory
Bas
al a
rea
per
acr
e (s
q. f
t.)
Relationship between initial conifer inventory, terminal conifer inventory, and conifer components of change on NFS forest land in
Montana
1990’s
2000’s
Relationship between initial conifer inventory, terminal conifer inventory, and conifer components of change on non-NFS forest land in
Montana
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Initial Inventory Survivor Growth Ingrowth Mortality Removals Terminal Inventory
Bas
al a
rea
per
acr
e (s
q. f
t.)
Relationship between initial lodgepole pine inventory, terminal lodgepole pine inventory, and lodgepole pine components of change on
NFS forest land in Montana
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Initial Inventory Survivior Growth Ingrowth Mortality Removals Terminal Inventory
Bas
al a
rea
per
acr
e (s
q. f
t.)
Relationship between initial whitebark pine inventory, terminal whitebark pine inventory, and whitebark pine components of change on
NFS forest land in Montana
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Initial Inventory Survivor Growth Ingrowth Mortality Removals Terminal Inventory
Bas
al a
rea
per
acr
e (s
q. f
t.)
ConclusionConclusion
Lodgepole pine is experiencing extremely high levels of mortality in Colorado—primarily due to MPB epidemic.
Inventories of large-diameter lodgepole pines in Colorado are declining at an unusually rapid rate.
Initial results from annual inventories appear promising for evaluating trends in levels of tree mortality.
The power to detect significant events related to mortality and other parameters of interest will increase substantially with estimates derived from the remeasured (paired) plots that will eventually be available region-wide.
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