Conflict Early Warning and Early Response Part 1

Part 1: Conflict Early Warning and Early Response

Joseph G. Bock

The goal of the network is to…mitigate violence stimulated by electoral politics and underlying social issues –

• Before, during and after the 2020 elections. • We anticipate collaborating for 6 months

altogether.• However, we will be working towards a

sustainable initiative that will endure into the future beyond 6 months.

Outline

Background information

Varieties of Early Warning and Early Response Systems

An important question we need to

ask

Roles

Ethical imperatives

Background Information

How it works...The core group includes national and international conflict-management organizations with decades of combined experience.The group is clear that...

Three key principles...

(1) Violence mitigation and problem-solving are robust only when local organizations are involved.

(2) Data-gathering and inter-network communication are useful only when networks of trustworthy people are in place.

(3) Getting the right information to the right people in the right format, in a timely manner, is key, and requies clear protocols.

The group is clear that...

The Trust Network is a non-partisan group of local, national and international experts in early warning early response mechanisms.

This includes groups with expertise in:• Information & Communication Technologies (ICTs)• Conflict transformation, mediation, de-escalation, cohesion

building, facilitated dialogues, restorative justice & violence mitigation.

A Non-Partisan Network

Mediators Beyond Borders International (MBBI) based in Washington DC, is serving as convener and organizational host.

The National Association for Community Mediation (NAFCM), is taking the lead field monitoring and early response.

Election Incident Reporting USA, is handling the Information and Communication Technologies for conflict early warning.

Collaborations

Members of the Election Incident

Reporting USA team...

…have years of experience in both election monitoring and disaster response.

Some of them have been active members of the International Network of Crisis Mappers.

Others have been heavily involved with the Standby Task Force.

The elections or disasters to which they responded have been in: Kenya, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, India, The Philippines, Sudan, Pakistan, Colombia, Ecuador, Libya, and Syria.

MediatorsBEYOND BORDERS INTERNATIONAL

Partners

Mitigating and Preventing Violence

Structurally Operationally

Example of a fire suppression system…

IT IS NOT A QUESTION OF WHETHER STRUCTURAL PREVENTION IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN TACTICAL PREVENTION. We need both!

The objectives of Conflict Early Warning and Early Response

To prevent violence from happening so it does not cause a conflagration of violence

To stop the transmission of violence…to keep it from spreading

To prevent a recurrence of violence

Analytical FrameworkDerived from Donald Horowitz’s The Deadly Ethnic Riot (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2001), with additions from Alexandra Scacco, Who Riots? Explaining Individual Participation in Ethnic Violence (PhD Dissertation, Columbia University, 2010); and a comment by John Paul Lederach in Mindanao, The Philippines

Sequence of Building a Consensus to Harm

Typical

Precipitating event

Consensus building

Violence

Atypical

1. Consensus building

2. Precipitating event

3. Violence

VARIETIES OF EARLY WARNING AND EARLY RESPONSE SYSTEMS

Low-tech

Case Study

The Harmony Project of the St. Xavier’s Social Service Society Ahmedabad, Gujarat India

Or Chapter 10 in Do No Harm

Cure Violence Case Study

Higher-tech

Example of Mathematical Pattern Recognition: Moving Average Convergence-Divergence Analysis

Case Study of Higher Tech Approach

Foundation for Co-ExistenceChapter 5

A different type of high tech: using digital mapping for visualization (potentially with a deterrent effect)Ushahidi

Flow Chart of

our Conflict

Early Warning and Early Response

System

AN IMPORTANT QUESTION WE NEED TO ASK

How much time…How early is early?

Findings from Sri Lanka

Roles of People Near Conflict

Roles

• Field Monitors—Go to locations of tension and reports observations. Anyone with a mobile phone can do this.

• Intervenors—Intervene in tense situations to de-escalate tensions. Not everyone can do this, only those trained in mediation and violence interruption can.

• Communicators—Work with a local network of people to spread information about what is happening and dispels rumors. Anyone connected to or part of a local network can do this using a mobile phone, tablet or computer.

What will be your role?

Training for field monitors and intervenors will be…• Part 2 - Wednesday Oct 28 - 4:30 pm - 6:00 pm EDT.

Register here.• Part 2 - Thursday Oct 29 - 11:00 am - 12:30 pm EDT.

Register here.https://mediatorsbeyondborders.org/trust/resources/

Cure Violence Training—also for intervenorsOctober 29 -- https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_aC8oDAlPRa6xecPCC4Rb1A

Ethical Imperatives

Ethical imperative #1: Ensure that the risk of communicating information relevant to early warning is less than the likelihood of and the benefit of preventing violence.

Ethical imperative #2: Verify data but don’t wait too long to issue a warning…otherwise the warning will be useless.

Certainty

Utility

Ethical imperative #3: Don’t allow fascination with technology to result in neglect of building and supporting local capacity for early response.

Ethical imperative #4: In cases of non-violent political struggle, an early warning and early response capacity should be created to mitigate the impact of troublemakers (sometimes called “spoilers”).

Ethical imperative #5:Emphasize that there are times when the best option is to leave and to ask others to do the same.

Some of My Best Teachers--Foundation for Co-Existence(especially the two leaders Madhawa Palihapitiya and Dinidu Endaragalle)

WHAT IS YOUR “ELEVATOR PITCH”?

What in the world is conflict early warning and early response?

MY “ELEVATOR PITCH”It is an initiative designed to mitigate violence by using technology and social media to enhance our ability to identify rising tensions in time to warn local organizations that it is time to intervene before violence erupts.

QUESTIONS/DISCUSSION

MediatorsBEYOND BORDERS INTERNATIONAL

THE TRUST NETWORKCreating connections across communities

Conveners