Computing Consequences in Real Time

Computing Consequences In Real Time

Leveraging Flood Inundation Mapping In the Cloud

William Lehman, Economist, Hydrologic Engineering Center USACE

• National Picture

• Show a simple map of structures

• Show a simple map of structures

• Show a simple map of structures

FAST – Flood Assessment Structure Tool

• Inputs: flood depth grid, structures

• Outputs: economic loss

• Python, runs independent from desktop Hazus

• FAST – not flashy!• https://github.com

/nhrap-hazus/FAST

Consequences

• Leverage IWRSS FIM• Leverage NSI• Leverage FEMA FAST• Provide better customer support

Approximations of reality

What is the appropriate cartographic unit?

Computing the Flood Risk of the Nation

One House at a time.

William Lehman, Economist, Hydrologic Engineering Center USACE

What are the hazards and

how likely are they to occur?

How will the infrastructure perform in the face of

these hazards?

Who and what are in harms way?How susceptible to harm are they?

How much harm is caused?

Risk = f(Hazard, Performance, Consequences)

What is Risk?

National Structure Inventory• Location, characteristics• USACE, FEMA

National Terrestrial Earth• Consistent High Quality

terrestrial data• USGS (3DEP), FEMA, USACE

National Statistical Storm Database*• Full Frequency by type• NOAA, NWS, USACE, USGS

National Levee Database• Location, characteristics• USACE, FEMA, State and

Local governments

Interagency National Modeling Datasets

National Inventory of Dams• Location, characteristics• USACE, FEMA, State and Local

governments

Critical Infrastructure Database• Inventory of critical roads, pipelines, power

lines, facilities• DHS (HIFLD data), DOT, DOE

* Indicates database does not currently exist

Consequence Calculations• Economic Loss• Life Loss• Environmental Loss• USACE, FEMA, USBR,

Rainfall Runoff• How does

precipitation convert to flow in our watersheds?

• USACE, NWS, NOAA, USGS

Weather Generation• Real time or

synthetic storms across all frequency

• USACE, NWS, NOAA

Geotechnical Database• How do our structures

(dams and levees) perform under load

• USACE, USBR, FERC, DHS

River Hydraulics• How does water

result in flooding throughout the system?

• FEMA, USACE,

Interagency National Modeling FrameworkSystem Operation• How do our mitigation

systems work and impact flow across watersheds

• USACE

Systems Based Risk Approach• All frequencies, all

watersheds connected

• Cloud based computing resources

• USACE, IWRSS, FIFNTF(SP?)

Truth is Beauty and Beauty is Truth.

Truth

DataModels

DataModels

DataModels

Where We Actually Are

Where We Think We Were

Where We Aspire To Be

Integrated Framework Capabilities

• Real Time Natural Hazard Response• Floodplain management

• Risk Mitigation• Risk Transfer• Risk Acceptance• Risk Management

• Defendable Risk Analytics – shared across agencies• Integrated plan for floodplain based funding across federal agencies

• Integration and leveraging authorities• Incentivizing collaboration and coordination