Communicating Uncertain Risks: Models and Methods

Prof. Dr. Peter M. Wiedemann

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, ITAS

Shenzhen, BGI , 1st Sigenet Workshop

Communicating Uncertain Risks: Models and Methods

“…. facts are like cows. If you look them in the face hard enough they generally run away.”

Dorothy L. Sayers

Overview

Uncertain Risk Risk Communication Hurdles and Barriers Models and Methods Epilogue

Overview

Uncertain Risk Risk Communication Hurdles and Barriers Models and Methods Epilogue

Risk

Risk is Everywhere

The risk concept could beapplied to everything.”M. PowerThe Risk Management of Everything. Rethinking the politics of uncertainty. London: Demos 2004

Risk is Everywhere Living close to a power

station Working in a chemical plant Skiing Buying shares Sun bathing Playing golf Being (un)married

Components of the Risk Concept Effect: Cause-effect relationship Loss: Negative relevance of the effect Uncertainty: Probability of the loss Level of evidence: Knowledge about these components

Uncertain Risks Is there a risk? How large is the risk?

Uncertainty is business as usualIARC Classification of potential carcinogenic substances

Peter Wiedemann

How big is the risk?

Source: WHO (2007) : Extremely Low Frequency Fields Environmental Health Criteria Monograph No.23

Overview

Topic: Uncertain Risk Risk Communication Hurdles and Barriers Models and Methods Epilogue

Risk Communication

Interactive exchange of information about health or environmental risks among risk assessors, managers, news media, interested groups, and the general public.

WHO 2004, IPCS Risk Assessment Terminology

Risk Communication

Purpose of RC RC is needed for informed decision making and

informed judgements about health impacts

RC Examples What does a positive mammography screening test

indicate? How probable is it to get breast cancer if I have a BRCA

1 mutation? Are cell phone safe for children?

Ingredients of Good RC Reliable & valid data Over all picture (don´t lose the sight of the wood for

the trees) Good reporting (transparency, clarity, reasonableness,

unbiased information processing) Credibility

Overview

Topic: Uncertain Risk Risk Communication Hurdles and Barriers Models and Methods Epilogue

Hurdles and Barriers Complexity Inquisitorial science system in an adversarial societal

context Mis-attribution of uncertainty Biased assimilation / confirmation bias

Informing about Hazard-related Uncertainty

Overview

Topic: Uncertain Risk Risk Communication Hurdles and Challenges Models and Methods Epilogue

Various Models Risk perception Risk communication Dialogue theories Persuasion theories Social marketing Theories of information processing

Routes of Information ProcessingElaboration Route Information

processingDecisioncriteria

Message

Highlevel Central Careful,

analyticQuality of argument

s

Lowlevel Peripheral Cursory,

intuitivePersuasiv

e cues

Petty, R. E., & Cacioppo, J. T. (1986). Communication and Persuasion: Central and Peripheral Routes to Attitude Change

Evidence Maps CORA

Evidence Maps EM are tools for synthesizing reporting evidence

Process structure Reporting structure

Evidence AssessmentEvidence Maps

Visualization of basic facts

• Evidence base

• Pro and con-arguments

• Conclusion

• Uncertainty

Evidence Map - Elements

Pro-Argument:

< ... >

Evidence Basis:• <Number of studies>

Contra-Argument:

< ... >

Conclusion:

< ... >

supporting< ...>

Remaining Uncertainties

< ... >

attenuating < ... >

supporting< ...>

attenuating < ... >

Routes of Information ProcessingElaboration Route Information

processingDecisioncriteria

Message

Highlevel Central Careful,

analyticQuality of argument

s

Lowlevel Peripheral Cursory,

intuitivePersuasiv

e cues

Petty, R. E., & Cacioppo, J. T. (1986). Communication and Persuasion: Central and Peripheral Routes to Attitude Change

Framework for communicating risk assessment reports (CORA)

CORA

Competency

Integrity

Quality assurance

Transparency

Stakeholder involvement

More Information

EpilogueThe future is not yet know

James Lind Alliance

Future project: Reporting evidence including uncertainties of Omics based tests and therapies

Webpage

Thank you very much!Peter.Wiedemann@itas.fzk.de

www.wiedemannonline.com