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Climate variability on multiple time scales:
Monsoon bursts and El Nino clash over SE Asia
Dr. Matthew Wheeler
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Australia
Outline El Nino and SE Asian drought
Madden Julian Oscillation and monsoon “bursts” Jakarta’s February floods
Climate Change
Sustainable Development
Smoke from fires in Indonesia affecting Manila in September 1997
The impacts of El Nino
1997-98 drought-induced fires in Indonesia
El Nino as seen in Pacific Ocean Temperatures
West Pacific
East Pacific
Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)
Jakarta’s floods of Jan/Feb 2002
30 to 60-day period
Generates “active” and “break” periods/bursts of the monsoon
Involved in monsoon onset and tropical cyclone development.
Monsoon “break”
Monsoon westerlies
TC formation
Westerly Wind Burst
ACTIVE “BURST” OF INDONESIAN-AUSTRALIAN MONSOON
Trade Wind surge
Approximate 1 month sequence
Satellite-observed clouds/rainfall
AREA AVERAGE
Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)
Low values = clouds and rain
High values = clear skies
Satellite-observed clouds/rainfall
AREA AVERAGE
Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)
Low values = clouds and rain
High values = clear skies
MJO
Jakarta floods
The MJO as a wavein the weather
2.5oN -12.5oS -
2001
2002
The signal of the MJOin the clouds as itmoves eastward.
The MJO as a wavein the weather
2.5oN -12.5oS -
2001
2002
The signal of the MJOin the clouds as itmoves eastward.
Jakarta floods {
MJO
New technique, using digital signal processing of satellite data Used to predict the active versus break periods Calculated daily
2.5oN -12.5oS -
An Example forecast from the 13th of January
Prediction of the MJO
Jakarta floods{
OB
SE
RV
ATIO
NS
FOR
EC
AST
13th JANUARY
MJO Prediction: Example maps from 13th Jan
Initial Condition
Week 1 forecast
Week 2 forecast
Week 3 forecast
7 - 13 JAN
14 - 20 JAN
21 - 27 JAN
28 JAN - 3 FEB
{Floods
The Multiple Time Scales of Climate
Weather
MJO/monsoon bursts
Annual cycle
El Nino/La Nina
Decadal Variability
Climate Change
Time scaleincreasing
MJOinteractionwith El Nino
Monsoon “break”
Monsoon westerlies
TC formation
Westerly Wind Burst
ACTIVE “BURST” OF INDONESIAN-AUSTRALIAN MONSOON
Trade Wind surge
Ocean wave
MJO sequence (~ 1 month)
Possible El Nino 6-12 months later
Climate Variability and Sustainable Development
Prediction is useful, but gains can also be made just by acknowledging that such variability exists.
Our vulnerability is often increasing.
The climate science is important, but so is the partnership with the human dimensions.
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