Climate Change Lessons from the Arcticpsc.apl.washington.edu/nonwp_projects/PPobs/... · Present...

L.A. CodispotiChesapeake College

February 5, 2008

With thanks to a host of colleagues: L. Cooper, D. Karoly, R. Gradinger, J. Grebmeier, etc.

Climate Change Lessons from the Arctic:A Call to Action as We Enter the Anthropocene

The Anthropocene is the present period of earth’s evolution during which human impacts on the climate and ecosystems are overtaking natural processes.

Starting in the 1800s Scientists Have Wondered if Starting in the 1800s Scientists Have Wondered if Our Carbon Dioxide Emissions Might Cause the Our Carbon Dioxide Emissions Might Cause the

Planet to Warm.Planet to Warm.

Water also a greenhouse gas.Water also a greenhouse gas.Sulfur Dioxide Ameliorates Warming

Orbital Forcing Sets the Tempo for Glacial Interglacial Cycles

The Greenhouse Effect

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

Fastest numerical increase in population x rising Fastest numerical increase in population x rising living standards = lots of pressure to increase the living standards = lots of pressure to increase the rate of emission of greenhouse gases plus other rate of emission of greenhouse gases plus other

environmental insults. environmental insults.

The most powerful force in the universeis compound interest. A. Einstein(remember to mention the pond /duckweedparable.)

When we take the ice out of the climate circuit When we take the ice out of the climate circuit will we enter the neowill we enter the neo--Pliocene? Pliocene?

Lou’s Idea of How the Climate System Works

LouLou’’s Oh Ss Oh S-------- Climate Change Moment.Climate Change Moment.

Kearney et al., MD Dept of Geography

Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

PCM = Parallel Coupled Model

“Business as Usual”

950 ppm

(2100)

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

We are heading for We are heading for carbon dioxide levels carbon dioxide levels as high as found in as high as found in the midthe mid--PliocencePliocence

when sea level was when sea level was as much as 90as much as 90--100 100

feet higher.feet higher.

So How Do Concerns Based on Basic Chemistry, the Geologic Record, Observations and Models Turn into a

Massive Political and Generational Conflict?:

Oh great!, Now we can’t talk about religion, politics or the weather!!

walrus_clip_no_voicover.mov

NOAA Surface Temperatures

Why the Arctic?Why the Arctic?

1. Canary in the Coal Mine1. Canary in the Coal Mine2.2. Large impacts, relative to its sizeLarge impacts, relative to its size

3. Big Changes in Recent Years3. Big Changes in Recent Years

The Ice-Albedo Feed-Back Mechanism

NorthwindNorthwind 19631963

Healy 2002/2004Healy 2002/2004

NASA GODDARD

YIKES!

The Ice Is Also ThinningThe Ice Is Also Thinning

Some Animals and Cultures Depend Greatly on the Ice. In Addition, decreased Ice Extent

Represents a Positive Feed- Back for Climate Change-The

Ice-Albedo Feedback.

Warming Effects Human Residents of the Arctic as Well!

I could give many examples (permafrost, melting, coastal erosion, forest fires, spruce budworm, etrc.), but I am going to emphasize the effects

on the community of Little Diomede.

Little Diomede Island Sits in the Middle of Bering Strait, One of the Two Places in the

Present – Day Ocean Where Atlantic and PacificWaters Meet

The crabs are a little larger in Alaska!!

Little Diomede in Summer

Helicopter Pad:Helicopter transportis expensive.

Little Diomede International Airport

Runway bulldozed on sea ice permits lessexpensive fixed wingtransport.

Arriving Flight and Local Taxis

In the Arctic Warming Greatly Accelerates Coastal Erosion

ClathratesClathrates represent major flow represent major flow assurance problem in natural gas assurance problem in natural gas and oil pipelinesand oil pipelinesMethane Methane clathrateclathrate is the most is the most abundant form of hydrocarbon on abundant form of hydrocarbon on Earth (> 60%)Earth (> 60%)Found in terrestrial marine Found in terrestrial marine sediments and permafrostsediments and permafrostSource of global climate change?Source of global climate change?Potential energy resource?Potential energy resource?

Image courtesy of Petrobas

Image courtesy of G. Klinkhammer

Be Prepared! Mother Nature Can Surprise You!

Fear me! I am the “clathrate gun”!

Release of methane from clathrates is implicated in some past episodes of rapid climate change.

Are you talkin to me!! I belong to the most

creative and Innovative society that has ever existed. Once

we wake up, we will crush you. If you don’t

believe me, talk to Rosie the Riveter!

Walrus Pups Die in the Deep:Likely cause = rapid ice retreat

Doomed Walrus Pups Without Mothers and

in Deep Water

Goteborg: A pleasant city.

If you want to see forward looking ideas for dealing with climate change while maintaining a high quality of life,

Google the city of Goteborg.

A Few Words About Mitigation

1. Goteborg offset their award ceremony for A. Gore by purchasing solar cells for installation in China.

2. Carbon sequestration.3. Mylar moons.4. Sulfur dioxide in the stratosphere.5. You, and the choices you make!!!

You may not like 3 & 4, but we cannot reject these optionsuntil we show that we have the will to avert disaster by Less extreme measures.

Finally, academia needs to be prepared to answer thequestions of panicked governments.

Doing Right Good Could Lead to Doing Well!!

Lee Cooper and Jackie Lee Cooper and Jackie GrebmeierGrebmeier: Two Arctic Heroes: Two Arctic Heroes

Happy Times: Healy 2002Happy Times: Healy 2002

Can you really trust someone who looks like this?

Here’s a thought (with apologies to FDR).Be a happy warrior for the environment!!!

Wouldn’t it be nice if future

generations said: The U.S. was slow off the mark when it came to Global

Warming, but once this free and

innovative society “put away childish things” and got on with attacking this

problem, it was like the awakening

of a sleeping Giant!