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Climate Change and Critical Infrastructure Resilience for Community Functionality
Vilas Mujumdar, P.E., S.E., C. Eng.Distinguished Senior Fellow, Global Resilience Institute,
Northeastern University, Boston, MA
World Engineers Convention (WEC)Melbourne, Australia
Nov. 20 -22, 2019
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Outline of Presentation
1. Natural Hazards2. Climate Change- Global Risks3. Critical Infrastructure Systems 4. Community response as an integrated system5. Convergence6. Interdependency7. Resiliency – definition, measures8. Conclusions
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Natural Hazards
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Natural Hazards
▪ Earthquakes - Geologic phenomena
▪ Tsunamis - Geologic phenomena - cascading
▪ Landslides – Geologic phenomena – cascading !
▪ Volcanic Eruptions – Geologic phenomena
▪ Severe Wind Storms – Weather related
▪ Floods – Weather /other causes
▪ Droughts – Weather related
▪ Fires /Wildfires – accidental/manmade/resulting from other hazards
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Climate Change impacts many hazards listed
Natural Hazards Data
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▪ Disasters have killed more than a million people, affected 4.4 billion people and cost the global economy more than 2 trillion dollars (1994 – 2014).
▪ With urbanization increasing rapidly, more people, often in the poorest countries, are being exposed to disaster risk.
▪ Climate change threatens to push that risk out of control, as extreme and more variable weather becomes more common (UNDP-2015)
- Hurricanes - Harvey, Irma, Maria, Two significant EQs in Mexico – 2017 -
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Natural Hazards Impact
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Technical
Systems
Economic
Systems
Social
Systems
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Short
term
Long
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Business
disruptions
Restore &
retrofit
Buildings
Infrastructure
Healthcare
Emergency
services
Business
closures &
relocation
Economic
recovery
Revision of
codes &
Regulations
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Post Hazard Impact
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Pre Hazard Condition Hazard Event
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Climate Change - Global Urban Risks
World bank- Urban Impact - Climate Change
1. Temperature Rise
2. Storms & Precipitation
3. Sea Level rise
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Primary effects
Climate Change - Global Urban Risks
1. Temperature Rise▪ For every 1 degree warming – 7% more population
experiences 20% decrease in water availability▪ Health impacts –weather related mortality, air quality,▪ Demand for more cooling▪ Forest fires increase
2. Storms and Precipitation▪ Water damage - acidification of waters▪ Changes in water supply – potential for water wars▪ Currently 35% of population exposed to water shortage▪ Wind generated damage to land, and infrastructure
3.Sea Level rise▪ Coastal flooding - loss of land, property damage▪ Costs to protect coastal communities▪ Loss of species and coastal habitats, and marine life▪ Shifting of ecological zones
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Impact of each will vary depending on:1. Location – Urban, rural,
developing – developed country, coastal, inland, mountain region
2. Adaptive Capacity-economy, institutions, governance, social capital, social cohesion
3. Mitigation Efforts-investments in infrastructure, maintenance, readiness
Global Urbanization Focus – Climate Change
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▪ By 2050, urban population will increase by 2.5 B people▪ 90% of this increase will occur in Asia and Africa▪ Only 3 countries- India, China , and Nigeria will account for 35 % of the
urban population increase,▪ India will have 416 M in urban areas, China - 255 M , and Nigeria – 189 M▪ By 2030, the world is projected to have 43 megacities with more than 10
million inhabitants, most of them in developing regions.
Reasons for Focus on Urban Areas
Many countries will face challenges in meeting the needs of their growing urban populations, including for housing, transportation, energy systems and other infrastructure, as well as for employment and basic services such as education and health care.
Source- UN
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Impacts of Climate change - US
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Impacts vary depending on geophysical risk exposure, existing adaptive capacity and resilience, and the level of regional economic development
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Impacts of Climate change - US
Effective policies needed at all levels to assess infrastructures capacity for current risks and resilience to future
climate changes.
▪ Impacts vary across the states depending on geophysical risk exposure, existing adaptive capacity and resilience, and the level of regional economic development
▪ Will also affect the environmental and social systems and their interactions with the infrastructure systems
It is important of act in an integrated, cross-sector way to reduce risks and develop
resilience.
▪ Poorest 1/3rd US counties sustain greater economic hardship from Hurricanes, temp. rise and sea-level rise
▪ By 2050, in San Francisco – 11- in sea-level rise, in addition to 100 YR storm surge and wave-run-up
▪ Impact on infrastructure systems▪ Saltwater intrusion causing corrosion
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UN - Sustainable Goal – Climate Change
“Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts” - UN
▪ All countries are experiencing first-hand, the drastic effects of climate change.
▪ Greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, and are now more than 50 percent higher than their 1990 level.
▪ Global warming is causing long-lasting changes to our climate system, which threatens irreversible consequences if we do not take action now.
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UN-Sustainable Goals
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Build resilient infrastructure, promote sustainable industrialization and foster innovation
Make cities inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable
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Impacted Further by Climate Change
Critical Infrastructure Systems
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Critical Civil Infrastructure Systems
Civil infrastructure systems critical for functionality
1. Telecommunications network
2. Electric power systems
3. Natural gas and oil systems
4. Transportation network
5. Water supply
6. Waste water systems
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These systems are interdependent & their Operations make them Human - coupled complex systems
Some systems are dynamic and
randomly coupled
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Total Infrastructure as an Asset
To preserve this asset, we need to understand the complex interaction of all components of a system
at local. Regional and international level and engage in integrated approach for solutions
All Infrastructure systems - Transportation networks, Electric Power grids, Water and Wastewater systems, Buildings, and Communication networks are a community Asset and are crucial for functioning of a society
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Climate Change Impacts - Infrastructure
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Community Response-an integrated system-
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Community – A Coupled Complex System
Social Systems
Technical Systems Economic Structure
Socio-technical Socio-economic
Decisions
Technical
Organizational Systems
Economic
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Social
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Convergence Approach
Convergence is an approach to problem solving that cuts across disciplinary boundaries.
▪ Integrates knowledge, tools, and ways of thinking from life and health sciences, physics, mathematics, computational sciences, engineering disciplines and beyond.
▪ Forms a comprehensive synthetic framework for tackling scientific and societal challenges that exist at the interfaces of multiple fields.
▪ Creates a network of partnerships.▪ Stimulates innovation from basic science discovery to translational
applications.
Convergence: Two or more things coming together, joining or evolving into one
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Provides encouragement for new collaborations between stakeholders and partners from academia, federal laboratories, industry, clinical
settings, and funding agencies
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Why is Convergence needed?
The world faces a complex set of challenges such as:▪Threats to the environment,▪Threats to national security,▪Workforce changes,▪New diseases and health risks,▪A rapidly changing global economy,▪Changing competitive environment.
These Complex Problems need experts from multiple disciplines to collaborate intensely - called “Convergent Engineering.”
Convergent Engineering is the development of transdisciplinary solutions intensely focused on critical global needs, taking advantage of deep collaboration between disciplines and across the world, made possible by new technologies.
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Specific UN Sustainable Development Goals
No. Goal UN- Descriptor Engineering Contribution Convergence
9Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization, and foster innovation.
• Sustainable and resilient infrastructure
• Sustainable manufacturing
Engineering., urban planning, industry, Govt. etc.
11Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable.
• Restore and improve urban infrastructure
• Develop technologies and processes to ensure safety and security across engineered systems
Industry, Urban planning, consumption economics, data science, etc.
13Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.
• Sustainable energy for all• Make the built environment
resilient to uncertain climate and weather extremes
• Substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions
Atmospheric sciences, Natural hazards, risk, resilience, Govt. actions, etc.
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(INTER) DEPENDENCY
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Civil Infrastructure Systems
Interdependencies - categorized differently
1. At System design level (some examples)
a. Water system with electrical networkb. Transportation network with electric gridc. Communication network with electric grid
2. At Operational level
a. Hierarchical – within organizationsb. Organizational – between organizationsc. Socio-economic systems
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Determine if a system is dependent on another & to what extent!
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Electrical Network System - design Level Interdependency
Electrical Network
Water Systems
Transportation Network
H
M
Communications Network
H
Waste-Water SystemsM
Natural Gas Network
N
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0.80- 1.00
0.50- 0.75
0.50- 0.75
0.00
0.80- 1.00
DEPENDENCY
LEVEL
H – HighM – MediumL- LowN - None
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Electrical Network Operational - Level Interdependency
Electrical Network
Transportation Authorities
Water Systems
Hierarchy within Organization
H
L
M
0.85
0.30
0.50
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DEPENDENCY
LEVEL
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RESILIENCY
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“The ability to prepare and plan for, absorb, recover from or more successfully adapt to actual or potential adverse events” - NAE
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Functionality
0
100
Time
A
B
C D
E
Measure of Resiliency(Area under ABCDE)
B = Event OccurredE = Full Recovery
T1 T2
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T2 - T1 = Rate of Recovery (Rapidity)
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Smaller the area under curve, the greater the resiliency
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Community Resiliency - Components
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Resiliency can be measured by time required to restore :▪ Built environment functionality ▪ Economic activity, and ▪ Services for normal functioning
Quantifying Resiliency in numerical terms is difficult, need both Quantitative and Qualitative approaches
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Community Resiliency is composed of built environment, economic system and societal system as components that are interdependent
RC = ∑ RB, RE, RS │ FA
RC = Total Community ResiliencyRB = Resiliency of Built EnvironmentRE = Economic system ResiliencyRS = Societal systems ResiliencyFA = Acceptable Functionality
Community Resiliency -
Community decides acceptable levels of functionality of various systems
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Building infrastructure- Resilience
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▪ Infrastructure’s inability to withstand extreme events due to climate change is because the design is based on the data from historical events. These historical conditions are now routinely exceeded,
▪ Since 1979, Houston alone has experienced three 500-year storms.Particularly, after hurricane Harvey - 2018, basic 100-year flood design parameters are acknowledged as fundamentally flawed,
▪ Climate change will make preparing for future storms much harder,
▪ These events will cause more precipitation, inland flooding, more extreme heat, cold, drought, wildfires, coastal flooding and wind,
Design for climate change
Source- Scientific American-2017
Infrastructure designers and managers must shift from risk-based to resilience-based thinking, so that infrastructure systems can better withstand and bounce
back quickly from these extreme events.
1. The impact of a hazard depends on its frequency, magnitude, duration, and on the pre-existing conditions,
2. Climate change has disrupted our historical data on hazards for probability of occurrence and intensity,
3. Civil infrastructure system is a sub-system in the complex community system,
4. Infrastructure systems are interdependent and connected,5. Community resiliency comprises of resiliencies of built
environment, economic structure, and social institutions,6. Both Qualitative and Quantitative measures are necessary to
determine overall resiliency,
Conclusions
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7. Climate change should be considered in designing infrastructure systems,
8. Infrastructure systems need to be flexible for operational purposes,
9. Public Policy is important for long term investment to create a resilient infrastructure,
10. Incentives need to be created for investment in creating resilience in infrastructure systems,
11. Infrastructure systems must function and meet the need of all community members.
Conclusions
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T H A N K Y O U
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